Introduction to

Stock Trading Based on

Big Money Movement
by Toto Tjung
Independent Stock Trader
fb : tototjung@gmail.com
PrimaTradeIDX@yahoogroups.com
Twitter @tototjung
+6281808579138
 Table of
Contents Stock Trading Goal
Stock Trading Approaches
Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
Trading by Rumor
Astrology
Trading By Big Money Movement
Why Big Money
How to trace Big Money
Basic Rule
How to Use
Study Case
 Stock Trading Goal

Got profit by Selling Stock price

above it's buying price

#3
 Stock Trading Approaches

1. Fundamentals Analysis
2. Technical Analysis
3. Rumor
4. Astrology
5. Big Money Movement
(Bandarmology)

#4
 Fundamentals Analysis
Advantages
Based on Company Financial Performances and
Management
Used a lot By Big Trading Company to forecast
target price
With Good Audit and Control, difficult to cheat
with the data without anybody know

#5
 Fundamentals Analysis
Disadvantages
Easy to manipulate, especially in Indonesia
Difficult to understand for average traders
Long term investment. Need another tools to
know the entry point

#6
 Technical Analysis
Advantages
Relatively easy to learn
Relatively easy to interpret
Popular now amongst Indonesian Broker
Company

#7
 Technical Analysis
Disadvantages
Difficult to choose the best Technical
Indicator
Sometimes Signal Contradict Each Other
Sometimes Signal triggered late after price
already discounted the signal
Tends to get trapped in forever try to make
the best TA indicator

#8
 Statistics Fact about TA
Testing Result on daily EUR/USD with 5 years data

Number of Max
Strategy P/L in Pips P/L in %
Trades Drawdown

BuyAndHold 1 -3,416.66 -3.42 25.44

Bollinger
Bands
20 -19,535.97 -19.54 37.99
MACD 110 3,937.67 3.94 27.55
Parabolic SAR 128 -9,746.29 -9.75 21.96
Stochastic 74 -20,716.40 -20.72 30.64
RSI 8 -18,716.69 -18.72 34.57
Ichimoku
Kinko Hyo
53 30,341.22 30.34 19.51

http://www.babypips.com/school/what-is-the-most-profitable-
indicator.html#ixzz2X0je55mi

#9
Which TA ?

#10
 Trading By Rumor
Buy on Rumor, Sell on news
Rumor can be wrong
The closer We to the source, the bigger
chance We can get gain from the rumor
(and vice versa)
Retail traders mostly hear the rumors very
late
Where are We in the circle of rumor?

#11
Trading by Rumor, VIVA Case

#12
Trading by Rumor, BBKP Case

#13
 Astrology

Difficult to explain by logic

Superstitious
Self Fulfilling prophecy?
Indonesian like to interest about their
zodiac and its affect to their daily life

#14
Trading By Big Money Movement
Price movement is triggered by Supply
and Demand
More Buyer than Seller -> Price will be increased
More Seller than Buyer -> Price will be decreased
Big/Smart Money will have more power to
push price according to their position
Follow that Big/Smart Money
Sometimes, Big Money can also make
wrong decision creating losing trade

#15
 Why Big Money?

1. Size does matters

2. Price Change is triggered by Supply and
Demand
3. Big Money have better link from insider to
receive a rumor before it went to public

#16
 Why Big Money?
4. They have more accurate access to company
financial data (better Fundamental Analyst and
auditor, better links to cross check Company
financial reports (Insider, Bloomberg terminal,
etc)
5. Most of them afford to hire expert Technical
Analyst to execute their trading plan
6. Can be used as GOOD confirmation for ALL
other methods (FA, TA, Rumor, Astrology, etc)

#17
 How to Trace Big Money ?
Technical Analysis Indicators (ADX)
Using OHLCV as source of their
mathematical calculations
Tends to be at the same direction with
Price Movements
Easy to manipulate for short timeframe
ADX, Volume Accumulation, etc

#18
 How to Trace Big Money ?
Trade Transaction Data Analysis
Based on detail per trading transaction
done for that stocks
Apply assumption/heuristics to filter
which one is Big Money and which one
is Retail

#19
 How to Trace Big Money ?
Foreign Inflow/Outflow
Suitable for Indonesian Company with
big dependency to foreign
investors/traders to move the market
Represent also smart money
Not accurate for low volume Stocks

#20
How to Trace Big Money ?
Foreign Inflow/Outflow on IHSG

#21
 How to Trace Big Money ?
Broker Transaction Analysis, Tlot vs
Blot, etc
Represent also smart money
Can be used for all markets
Difficult to get and analyze the data
automatically

#22
How to Trace Big Money ?
Top 5 Broker Transaction on IHSG

#23
 Basic Rule

1) Use Line Chart to plot total accumulation and

distribution for each day per stock
2) Smallest timeframe is daily; the bigger the
timeframe, the more valid the data
3) Trade at the same direction with Trend, Even
when trend is applied to accumulation chart

#24
 Basic Rule

4) Apply Moving Averages to the accumulation

line chart to get the trend
MA(ACUM, 5) for short term accumulation trend
MA(ACUM, 20) for medium term accumulation
trend

#25
 Basic Rule

5) For simplification, We use MA theory to define

uptrend and downtrend
Uptrend when short MA is above long MA
Downtrend when short MA is below long MA
6) Minor drop on uptrend accumulation doesn't
means uptrend price will change to
downtrend

#26
 Basic Rule

7) Minor increase on downtrend accumulation

doesn't means downtrend price will change to
uptrend
8) Uptrend in accumulation will not suddenly
change price trend to uptrend. Sometime price
will stay sideways for a while before start to
increase

#27
 Basic Rule

9) Downtrend in accumulation will not suddenly

change price trend to downtrend. Sometime
price will still sideways for a while before start to
decrease
10) Can be used as divergence indicator
11) Don't buy on downtrend Accumulation. Don't
Sell on uptrend Accumulation
12) Price Discounts Everything

#28
 How to Use

Simple Buy Indicator :

Buy when both Close and High is BIGGER than
previous day
Buy = Close > Ref(Close, -1) and High > Ref(High, -1);
PlotShapes(Buy*shapeUpArrow,colorGreen,Layer=0,L);

Combined with Accumulation :

Buy = Close > Ref(Close, -1) and High > Ref(High, -1) and
Acum > MA(Acum, 5) and MA(Acum, 5) > MA(Acum, 20);
PlotShapes(Buy*shapeUpArrow,colorGreen,Layer=0,L);

#29
Study Case : ACES

DONT BUY DURING

DISTRIBUTION

#30
Study Case : PGAS

DONT BUY
DURING
DISTRIBUTION

#31
Study Case : ADRO

#32
 Study Case : VIVA

April 2013, Big Rumor that HT or CT bought

VIVA for around Rp.1200 per share, compared
to that time market price (Rp.600 - Rp.650).
Price jump up around 15% at one day on April
12nd. But after that start to run on downtrend.
Latest another rumor, only ANTV finally sold
(also with questionable price). But now, big
money start to accumulate.

#33
 Study Case : VIVA
Big Money View

#34
 Study Case : BBKP

Big rumor (or fact?) that BBKP sold for Rp.1050

per shares at early June 2013. at June 11st,
price jump to its high 800, only to decrease
after that day and resume it's downtrend

#35
 Study Case : BBKP
Big Money View

#36
 Study Case : CTRS

Big Uptrend with very good accumulation since

2012. First week April 2013, CTRS announced
Private placement caused small correction, only
to resume the uptrend after that

#37
 Study Case : CTRS
Big Money View

#38
 Study Case : BUMI

Used to be everybody's favorite. Even

until now sometime still catch trader's
attention by it's CA.

#39
 Study Case : BUMI
Big Money View

#40
 Study Case : BJTM

Big price increase for this year dividend

supported by good accumulation by big
money. And then major correction by
profit taking after dividend expired. Now
the price trend is sideways even that
smart money continue their accumulation
after correction done

#41
 Study Case : BJTM
Big Money View

#42
 Study Case : BKSL

Classic example how big money accumulate

the stock for around two months during
November and December 2012 before the
price jumped up from 190 to 260 only in 2.5
weeks

#43
 Study Case : BKSL
Big Money View

#44
Study Case : Ciputra Group

Time by time analysis how the stocks

from same owner, same sector can have
different cycle on price movements and
accumulations.

#45
Study Case : Ciputra Group
Big Money View

#46
 Study Case : MPPA

Bullish stocks not confirmed by Accumulation

by Big Money.

#47
 Study Case : MPPA
Big Money View

#48
 Study Case : COWL

Bullish stocks not confirmed by Accumulation

by Big Money.

#49
 Study Case : COWL
Big Money View

#50
Thank You