Cadena Critica

Gestin de Proyectos

Cruise Control for Projects

dddddd
Theory of Constraints Jonah
TOCICO Certified Critical
Chain Project Management
 Introduccin a la gestin de
Proyectos
Introducing the Cisco IPS 4300
Series
Hardware
Performance
Scale
Secure Architecture
Management
Deployment Options
 Standish Group
Chaos Report

No hay manera confiable

para medir el estado de un
proyecto hasta que es
demasiado tarde.

3
 Theory of Constraints
Dr Eli Goldratt

Every system has something that limits it.

If you identify the system constraint and help it,
you get more output from the system.

Critical Chain
Project Management
The constraint of a project
is the Critical Chain.
This kink is the
Help it to get done faster and
constraint of this
the project gets done faster.
simple system.

4
PMI
A GUIDE TO THE PROJECT
MANAGEMENT BODY OF KNOWLEDGE
Chapter 6 Project Time Management

Critical Path Critical Chain

Method Project
(CPM) Management
(CCPM)
2 + pages 1 + pages

5
comment on PMI CCPM forum

"Critical chain is crazy.

It is based on an assumption that we consistently

over estimate durations.

My experience is that we typically under estimate

durations then [Critical Chain says to]
arbitrarily reduce durations to comply with critical
chain thinking

6
 What is a Project?
A project is a combination of
dependent events and
statistical fluctuations,

convoluted by human behavior

and purported to accomplish a goal.

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 Statistical Fluctuations

How long will a project take?

Task estimates are needed to plan a project.

The estimates together determine the project length.

A B C D

Project managers want their tasks to be on time,

because if the tasks are on time, their projects will be on time.

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 Estimating

How long does it

take to Catch a Fish?

At Pike Place Market in Seattle?

9
 Test your estimating skill!

Estimating a task with little information or experience.

Write your estimates on the handout page.

1 How long will it take a horse and rider to travel

20 miles cross country? 10
 Variation in Tasks
Commute to Downtown

On-time Probability
50% 90%
Occurrences
Leave Home

60

0 25 50 Minutes 75 100 120

Duration Estimate 11
 Duration Estimates for Planning a Project
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Expected
5 days 10 days 20 days 11

A 5 days

A 10 days

A 20 days

20 days Project Lengths

40 days

80 days
12
 Probability of a longer task

Subconsciously we think the probability curve

doesnt move when we increase the estimate.

A A

A A

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 Project Scheduling Software
Turns estimates into deadlines

1/26 A 2/9
Like Milestones
2/10 B 2/23

2/24 C 3/8 Like Deadlines

3/9 D 3/22
Software Schedule
Project
Start Project
3/22 End
1/26

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 Deadline Management

means Be NOT Late

Long estimates are self-fulfilling prophesies

15
 Deadlines and
Convoluting Behaviors

Parkinsons Law
Work expands to fill the available time
when there isnt enough to do.

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 Deadlines and
Convoluting Behaviors

The Student Syndrome

Due Date
Effort

Time

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 Multi-Tasking - is the worst

This is how long each task or project should take if full attention is paid to each in turn.

Effort on Blue is interrupted by other projects.

Blues duration

Switching projects takes

time.

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 Multi-Tasking demo
Delays caused by interruptions and switching tasks

Multi-task by writing a letter, number, letter, number,

M U L T I T A S K
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Total Time required ______

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 Multi-Tasking demo
Do NOT Multi-task.

Write all the letters, then write all the numbers.

M U L T I T A S K
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Total Time required ______

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Effort
The Student Syndrome & Multi-Tasking

Time
21
 The Student Syndrome &
severe Multi-Tasking

Or maybe like this!

Effort

Time
22
 Estimates become Actual Durations
Our allowances for stuff become part of the actual duration

Task Estimate is a Number

S/W schedules Start & End Dates

End Date = Due Date Milestone = Deadline

Human Behaviors meet Deadlines

Tasks finish when Due

Pick a Number, get a Duration

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 Lates Accumulate

Project Project
Start Due

3/22

A Late A Pushed
C Late A Pushed + C Pushed

Project Late
Due

A B C D

The probability curve and deadline move as tasks B, C & D are pushed by A.
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 What do we know!

We dont know when anything will finish.

Yet, tasks often get done about when they are estimated.

Allowances for delays & problems get used up.

EARLY usually doesnt happen, and LATE often does.

Being on time is hard to do.

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The Pony Express
needs YOU!

26
 Short Estimates Project
Duration

The schedule doesnt fit the business case. Business

Case !!

This schedule fits the business case.

A

However, each task must start

before its predecessor ends.

B B

C C

In order to make it work, Im asking
D D
you to use aggressive 50% durations.
? Critical Chain
tasks

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The Critical Chain

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 Good Statistics
Help the Pony Express

The variability of a series of tasks is less than

that of the sum of the individual task variabilities.

Series
flow time
probability

Central Limit Theorem

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The Feeding Chains

30
Critical Chain Buffers

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 Buffer Management
Fever Chart Late

Due

Project
Fever
Chart
Early

32
 Work Rules

Critical Chain Project Management

Prioritize work (tasks & projects)

Use aggressive task estimates
Identify the Critical Chain
Aggregate safety in buffers
Use Buffer Management
Work quickly on one task

33
Multi-Project Critical Chain

34
Multi-Project Fever Chart

35
 Consider Unloading Ships...
(Projects)

5 ships + 5 persons @ 5 person-days to unload each

= 5 days

36
 Staggering the Projects
Put all five resources on
ship 1 the first day, ship
2 the second day, etc.

Initial Results:
Ship New (days) Old (days) Saved
1 1 5 4
2 2 5 3
3 3 5 2
4 4 5 1 Continuing Results:
5 5 5 0 Each arriving ship is
Nobody loses. Four of five clients done sooner.
Cost = $ 0 unloaded in 1 day.
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Confluence

38
 Boeing Commercial Airplanes

Application of CCPM to 777-300 ER Airframe Design

55% of the Airplane 10,000 projects

85% of the Airframe 1,000 people at (peak)
20% larger than any $500,000,000 program
previous derivative
Adapted from a presentation by Stephen R. Johnson
777 Airframe Integration Team Chief Engineer (AFIT)
39
 777-300 ER
Challenges & Results

Load data > 2 months late

Experienced lead engineers resisted CCPM for
more than 6 months

26% faster than its very aggressive schedule

50% reduction* in engineering errors
All end-items shipped on time
Improved engineering release compliance ~15%
* Relative to the last 777 derivative: 777-300
40
 The Next Derivative
with CCPM

777-200 LR airframe design was

completed 5 months earlier than a
very aggressive schedule

41
 Be EARLY, NOT LATE
Critical Chain is EARLY

3 Ideas to Use Today

1. The Critical Chain is the constraint. Focus on it
so its always being worked.
2. Pink Paper Pyramids keep the distractions away.
3. Ask 3 Status Questions: Whats going on? What
are you doing about it? and Do you need any help.
42
Questions?

43
 Skip Reedy

Skip is certified in Critical Chain Project Management.

He is a member of the Project Management Institute and the Theory of
Constraints International Certification Organization. He was with Boeing
Commercial Airplanes in Seattle as a Manufacturing Engineer and Design
Engineer for 8 years and then as an internal CCPM consultant for six years.
For the last eight years he is an independent project management consultant
with CCPM Consulting LLC.
He is a mechanical engineer from the University of Detroit with an MBA from
Loyola University of Chicago. He is a Theory of Constriants Jonah and is
certified by TOCICO.

Skip can be contacted at 480-648-1862

skip@ccpmconsulting.com
http://ccpmconsulting.com

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 Marine Corps Logistics Base
TOC & CCPM implementation 8 minute
video is available at

http://www.ccpmconsulting.com/marine-corps-logistics-base-albany-ga/

45
 Traditional Project Management
Estimates become NOT LATE
Task Estimates
Confident estimates are long enough to get the work done, allowing for typical delays and problems.

Probability as a Number
An estimate is not a prediction. We dont know how long anything will take.
Its a single number for a task that has the possibility of a range of durations.

Crazy Project Management Software

Project management software schedules estimates with start and end dates.
End dates become due dates, and deadlines. Deadlines must be met.

Convoluted Normal Behaviors

Parkinsons Law, the Student Syndrome, Multitasking, Deadlines reinforce be NOT LATE.

LATEs, not EARLYs

Tasks are rarely EARLY and often LATE. LATE tasks push successors to be LATE.
LATEs accumulate. EARLYs dont.

Allowances are Ineffective

Allowances for delays and problems (Safety, Contingency, or Buffer time) are effective against being NOT
EARLY and NOT LATE. This safety is wasted.

Increasing the safety makes projects longer

LATE tasks encourage future estimates to be longer. Longer estimates make longer projects.
Longer projects struggle to be NOT LATE.

Safety in tasks creates longer projects without improving on-time results.

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 Shameless Advertising
Original Pink
Pyramid
purported to accomplish a goal.

110 # card stock works well.

Using a straight-edge, run a dull Fold in Management
knife along/between the fold lines.

Suggested warnings:

What I am working on is more

important than whatever it is
you are about to ask me.
So dont do it! Tape together
close to the corners.
If you are delivering money,
please interrupt.

Fold in
Critical

A project is a combination of depende 47