Bayesian Analysis

 Is a statistical analysis that answers

research question by using probability
statements.

 It uses prior information and degrees of

belief.

 Posterior distribution

 It follows a simple rule of probability which

is known as “Bayes rule”.
Bayes Rule
Example:
You are planning a picnic today, but the morning is cloudy
 50% of all rainy days start off cloudy
 cloudy mornings are common (about 40% of days start
cloudy)
 this is usually a dry month (only of 3 of 30 days tend to
be rainy or 10%)
Example 2:
In Exton school, 60% of the boys play football and 36% of
the boys plays ice hockey. Given that 40% of those that
play football also plays ice hockey, what percent of those
that play ice hockey also play football.