MATH03

Statistics and Probability

 SOME DISCRETE
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
COURSE OUTCOME 2
 Objectives
At the end of the lesson, the student should be able to :
• Differentiate some discrete probability distributions.
• Compute probabilities corresponding to a given discrete
probability distribution.
• Calculate and interpret the mean and variance of discrete
probability distributions.
• Solve problems involving mean and variance of discrete probability
distributions using Laws of Expected Value and Variance

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Binomial Probability
Many types of probability problems have only two possible outcomes
or they can be reduced to two outcomes.
Examples: when a coin is tossed it can land on heads or tails, when a
baby is born it is either a boy or girl, etc.

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Binomial Probability
The binomial experiment is a probability experiment that
satisfies these requirements:
1. Each trial can have only two possible outcomes—success or failure.
2. There must be a fixed number of trials.
3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of each other.
4. The probability of success must remain the same for each trial.

Bluman, Chapter 5 5

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Binomial Probability
In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly X successes in
n trials is

P X n! n= total number of trials

X  p  qn
 n X ! X ! X p= probability of success
q= 1-p = probability of failure
-

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Binomial Probability
X=number of success in n trials
P X or n-X= number of failures n trials

 n Cx 

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Binomial Probability
p X  qn X
number of possible probability of a
desired outcomes desired outcome

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Example
A survey found that one out of five Americans say he or she has visited
a doctor in any given month. If 10 people are selected at random, find
the probability that exactly 3 will have visited a doctor last month.

Bluman, Chapter 5 7

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Solution
A survey found that one out of five Americans say he or she has visited
a doctor in any given month. If 10 people are selected at random, find
the probability that exactly 3 will have visited a doctor last month.

1 1 4
𝑛 = 10 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑋 = 3, "one out of five" → 𝑝 = , so that 𝑞 = 1 − =
5 5 5

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 𝑃𝑋 = 𝑛𝐶𝑥 ⋅ 𝑝 𝑋 ⋅ 𝑞𝑛−𝑋
3 7
1 4
𝑃𝑥 = 3 = 10𝐶3 ⋅ 5 ⋅5  0.201
Bluman, Chapter 5 8

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Example 2
A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited (Northbrook, Illinois) found
that 30% of teenage consumers receive their spending money from part-
time jobs. If 5 teenagers are selected at random, find the probability that
at least 3 of them will have part-time jobs.

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 Solution
A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited (Northbrook, Illinois) found
that 30% of teenage consumers receive their spending money from
part- time jobs. If 5 teenagers are selected at random, find the
probability that at least 3 of them will have part-time jobs.
n p  0.30,"at least 3"   3, 4, 5
5, X
0.30 0.70
𝑃 = 5𝐶3 ⋅ 3 4
⋅ 1
 0.132 𝑃
3 ⋅
0.30 0.70
𝑃4 = 5𝐶4 ⋅
2
 0.028

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 𝑋≥3
= 0.132 + 0.028 + 0.003 = 0.16
𝑃5 = 5𝐶5 ⋅ 0.30 5
⋅ 0.70 0
= 0.003

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Example:
A multiple-choice quiz with five questions is given. Each
question has four possible answers. A student guesses all
answers. What is the probability that she passes the test if at
least three correct answers are needed to pass?

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n  5, x p q  0.75
3, 0.25,
P  x  C  5,  0.75 
2

3 3 0.25 
3

 10 0.015625 0.5
P  x  4  C 5, 4  0.2
 5 0.0
P  x  5

Then the probability of three or more

correct, denoted by P
  3,
x
P  x  3  0.0879  0.0146  0.00098 0.10348


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Mean and Variance of
Binomial Probability
Distribution
The mean, variance, and standard deviation of a variable that has the
binomial distribution can be found by using the following formulas.

Mean: 
Variance:  2  npq

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Standard Deviation:   npq

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Example
The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life Insurance Co.
reported that 2% of all American births result in twins. If a random sample
of 8000 births is taken, find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of
the number of births that would result in twins.

Bluman, Chapter 5 14

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 Solution
The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life Insurance Co.
reported that 2% of all American births result in twins. If a random sample
of 8000 births is taken, find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of
the number of births that would result in twins.


np  8000 
  npq  8000
2
 156.8 
157
0.020.98
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   12.5 
npq 80000.020.98 13
Bluman, Chapter 5 15

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Example 2
A quality control expert at a large factory estimates that 10% of
batteries produced are If a sample of 20 batteries
taken, determine the mean, variance and standard

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Example 2
A quality control expert at a large factory estimates that 10% of
batteries produced are If a sample of 20 batteries
taken, determine the mean, variance and standard

𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 = 20 0.10 = 2
2
𝜎 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 20 0.10 0.90 = 1.8
𝜎 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 1.8 = 1.34

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Poisson Probability Distribution
The Poisson distribution is a distribution useful when n is large and p is
small and when the independent variables occur over a period of time.

 The Poisson distribution can also be used when a density of items is

distributed over a given area or volume, such as the number of
plants growing per acre or the number of defects in a given length of
videotape.

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Conditions to Apply the
Poisson Probability
Distribution
The following three conditions must be satisfied to apply the Poisson
probability distribution.
1. x is a discrete random variable.
2. The occurrences are random.
3. The occurrences are independent

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Poisson Probability Distribution
The probability of X occurrences in an interval of time, volume, area,
etc., for a variable, where λ (Greek letter lambda) is the mean
number of occurrences per unit (time, volume, area, etc.), is
P  X; 
 e wher X  0,1, 2,....
X e

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 X!
The letter e is a constant approximately equal to 2.7183.

Bluman, Chapter 5

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Example 1
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page
manuscript, find the probability that a given page contains exactly three
errors.

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Solution
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-
page manuscript, find the probability that a given page contains exactly
three errors.

First, find the mean number of errors. With 200 errors distributed over
200
500 pages, each page has an average of 𝜆 = = 0.4 errors per page.
500
−𝜆 � −0.4 (0.4) 3
𝑃𝑋 = 3 =𝑒 𝜆 =𝑒 = 0.0072
�
𝑋! 3!
Thus, there is less than 1% chance that any given page will contain exactly
3 errors.
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Example
If electricity power failures occur according to a Poisson distribution with
an average of 3 failures every twenty weeks, calculate the probability that
there will not be more than one failure during a particular week.

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Solutio
If electricity power failures occur according to a Poisson distribution with an
average of 3 failures every twenty weeks, calculate the probability that there
will not be more than one failure during a particular week.
3
The average number of failures per week is 𝜆 = = 0.15
20
"Not more than one failure" means we need to include the probabilities for 0
failures plus 1 failure.
𝑒−0.15(0.15)0 𝑒−0.15(0.15)1
𝑃𝑋 = 0 + 𝑋 = 1 = + = 0.9898
𝑃 0! 1!

Thus, the probability that there will not be more than one failure during a
particular week is 0.9898

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Example 2
If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people
are left-handed, find the probability that exactly 5 people
there are left-handed.

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Example 2
If approximately 2% of the people in a room of 200 people
are left-handed, find the probability that exactly 5 people
there are left-handed.

1. Since 𝜆 = 𝑛 ∙ 𝑝, then 𝜆 = 200 0.02 = 4.

2. Hence,

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Example 2
𝑃(𝑋; 𝜆) −𝜆 𝑋 −4 5
𝑒 𝜆 = 2.7183 4
= 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓𝟔
= 5!
𝑋!

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Example 3
On an average Friday, a waitress gets no tip from 5
customers. Find the probability that she will get no tip from
7 customers this Friday

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Example 3
On an average Friday, a waitress gets no tip from 5
customers. Find the probability that she will get no tip from
7 customers this Friday.

−5 7
𝑃 7; 5 = 𝑒 𝜆 =𝑒
−𝜆 𝑋 5
= 𝟎. 𝟏𝟎𝟒
𝑋! 7!

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Mean and Variance of
Poisson Probability
Distribution
For the Poisson probability distribution, the mean and variance are
both equal to λ. That is, for the Poisson probability distribution,

Mean: 𝜇 = 𝜆
Variance: 𝜎 2 = 𝜆
Standard Deviation: 𝜎 = 𝜆

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Example
An average of 0.8 accident occur per day in a particular large city.
a. Find the probability that no accident will occur in this city on
a given day
b. Let x denote the number of accidents that will occur in this city on
a given day. Write the probability distribution of x
c. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the
probability distribution developed in part b.

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Example
An average of 0.8 accident occur per day in a particular large city.
a. Find the probability that no accident will occur in this city on
a given day
𝑃 =𝑒 −𝜆 𝑋
𝜆 = 𝑒−0.8(0.8)0
𝑋=0 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒𝟗𝟑
𝑋! 0!

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 Example
An average of 0.8 accident occur per day in a particular large city.
b. Let x denote the number of accidents that will occur in this city on
a given day. Write the probability distribution of x
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X) 0.4493 0.3595 0.1438 0.0383 0.0077 0.0012 0.0002
XP(X) 0 0.3595 0.2476 0.1149 0.0308 0.0060 0.0012
𝑋2𝑃(𝑋) 0 0.3595 0.4952 0.3447 0.1232 0.0300 0.0072

𝜇 = ∑𝑋𝑃 𝑋 = 0 + 0.3595 + 0.2476 + 0.1149 + 0.0308 + 0.0060 + 0.0012 = 0.76

𝜎2 = ∑𝑋2𝑃 𝑋− 𝜇2
=0 + 0.3595 + 0.4952 + 0.3447 + 0.1232 + 0.0300 + 0.0072− 0.762 = 0.78
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𝜎 = 0.78 = 0.88
Example
An average of 0.8 accident occur per day in a particular large city.
c. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the
probability distribution developed in part b.

𝜇 = 𝜆 = 𝟎. 𝟖 mean
𝜎 2 = 𝜆 = 𝟎. 𝟖 variance
𝜎=𝜆 = 0.8 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟗𝟒 standard deviation

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Hypergeometric Probability
The hypergeometric distribution is a distribution of a variable that has two
outcomes when sampling is done without replacement.

A hypergeometric experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following

properties:

1) A sample of size n is randomly selected without replacement from

a population of N items.
2) In the population, r items can be classified as successes, and N - r items
can be classified as failures.

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Hypergeometric Probability
Let N = total number of elements in the population
r = number of successes in the population
N – r = number of failures in the
population n = number of trials (sample
size)
x = number of successes in n trials
n – x = number of failures in n trials

The hypergeometric probability is computed using this formula

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Hypergeometric Probability
𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑟𝐶𝑥 (𝑁−𝑟 𝐶 𝑛−𝑥)
𝑁
𝐶𝑛

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Example 1
A recent study found that 2 out of every 10 houses in a neighbourhood
have no insurance. If 5 houses were selected from 10 houses, find the
probability that exactly 1 will be uninsured.

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Solution
A recent study found that 2 out of every 10 houses in a neighbourhood
have no insurance. If 5 houses selected from 10 houses, find the
probability that exactly 1 will be uninsured.
Solution:
N = 10 r=2 so that N–r=8
n=5 x=1 so that n–x=4

𝑥=1
𝐶𝑥 (𝑁−𝑟 𝐶 𝑛−𝑥)
𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑟
𝐶 𝐶1 (8 𝐶 4) 𝟓 ≈ 𝟎. 𝟓𝟓𝟓𝟔
𝑁 𝑛 𝑃 = 2
𝐶
10 5
= 𝟗

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Thus, the probability that exactly 1 will be uninsured is 0.5556.

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Example 2
Suppose we randomly select 5 cards without replacement from an
ordinary deck of playing cards. What is the probability of obtaining 2 or
fewer hearts?

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Solution
N = 52; since there are 52 cards in a deck.
r = 13; since there are 13 hearts in a deck.
n = 5; since we randomly select 5 cards from the deck.
x = 0 to 2; since our selection includes 0, 1, or 2 hearts.
𝑃𝑥 = 0 + 𝑃𝑥 = 1 + 𝑃 𝑥 = 2
13𝐶0 (39 𝐶 5 ) 13𝐶1 ( 13𝐶2 (39 𝐶 3)
39 𝐶 4 )
= 52𝐶5 + 52𝐶5 +
52𝐶5
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟐𝟏𝟓 + 𝟎. 𝟒𝟏𝟏𝟒 + 𝟎. 𝟐𝟕𝟒𝟑
≈ 𝟎. 𝟗𝟎𝟕𝟐
Thus, the probability of randomly selecting at most 2 hearts is 0.9072.
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 Example 3
Ten people apply for a job as assistant manager of a restaurant.
Five have completed college and five have not. If the manager
selects 3 applicants at random, find the probability that all 3 are
college graduates.

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Example 3

1. Assigning the values to the variables gives

N=10
r = 5 college graduates n=3
N-r = 5 nongraduates x=3 n-x=0

2. Substituting in the formula gives

5𝐶 3 ∙ 5𝐶 0
10 1
𝑃𝑋 = = =
10𝐶3 120 12

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Example 4
A produce distributor is carrying 10 boxes of Granny Smith apples
and 8 boxes of Golden Delicious apples. If 6 boxes are randomly
delivered to one local market, what is the probability that at least 4
of the boxes delivered contain Golden Delicious apples?

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Example 4
1. Assigning the values to the variables gives
N=18 boxes
r = 8 boxes of Golden Delicious Apple n=6
N-r = 10 boxes of Granny Smith Apples x=4,5,6 n-x=2,1,0

2. Substituting in the formula gives

𝐶∙ 𝐶
8 4 10 2 = 0.170
𝑃 4 = 18𝐶6 𝑃𝑥 ≥ 4 = 4 + 5 + 𝑃6
𝑃 𝑃
𝐶∙ 𝐶
𝑃5 = 8 5 10 1
𝐶 = 0.030 = 0.170 + 0.030 + 0.002 = 0.202
18 6
𝐶∙ 𝐶
𝑃6 = 8 6 10 0
𝐶 = 0.002
18 6

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Mean and Variance of
Hypergeometric Probability
Distribution
Mean of a Hypergeometric Distribution (𝝁)
𝒏𝒓
𝝁=
𝑵

Standard Deviation of a Hypergeometric Distribution (𝝈)

𝒓 𝑵−𝒓 𝑵−𝒏
𝝈=
𝒏 𝑵 𝑵−𝟏
𝑵
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Example
An annexation suit is being considered against a
county subdivision of 1200 residences by a
neighboring city. Half of the occupants object to
being annexed follows a hypergeometric
distribution. Assume the random sample to be 10.

a. What is the mean of this distribution?

b. What is its standard deviation?

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Solutio
An annexation suit is being considered against a county
subdivision of 1200 residences by a neighbouring city. Half
of the occupants object to being annexed follows a
distribution. Assume the random sample to be 10.

(a) What is the mean of this distribution?

𝝁 =
𝒏𝒓
=
𝟏𝟎∗𝟔𝟎𝟎 =𝟓
𝑵 𝟏𝟐𝟎𝟎

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Solutio
An annexation suit is being considered against a county subdivision of 1200
residences by a neighbouring city. Half of the occupants object to being
annexed. Assume the random sample to be 10.
(b) What is its standard deviation?
N=1200, r=600, n=10
𝑟 𝑁−𝑟𝑁−𝑛
𝜎= 𝑛 𝑁 𝑁−1
𝑁 1200 − 10
600 1200 − 600 1200 − 1
𝜎= = 1.5752
10 1200
1200

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Laws of Expected Value and
Expected Value Variance

𝐸 𝑐 =𝑐 𝑉 𝑐 =0
𝐸 𝑋+𝑐 =𝐸 𝑋 +𝑐 𝑉 𝑋+𝑐 =𝑉𝑋

𝐸 𝑐𝑋 = 𝑐𝐸 𝑋 𝑉 𝑐𝑋 = 𝑐 2𝑉 𝑋

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Example 1
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the
Laws of Expected Values and Variance:
a. 𝑌 = 8𝑋
b. 𝑍 = 4𝑋 + 1
c. 𝑇 = 3𝑥 − 2
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29

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Example 1a
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the Laws
of Expected Values and Variance:
a. 𝑌 = 8𝑋
Find the value of mean since 𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋)
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29
XP(X) -0.14 0 0.09 0.24 0.87

𝜇 = 𝐸𝑋 = ෍ 𝑋𝑃 +0 + + (0.87)
+
=

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 𝑋 −0.14 0.09 0.24
𝐸(𝑋) = 1.06
𝐸𝑌 = 𝐸 8𝑋 = 8𝐸(𝑋) = 8 1.06 = 𝟖. 𝟒𝟖

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Example 1b
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the
Laws of Expected Values and Variance:
a. 𝑌 = 8𝑋 ; Find the value of variance
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29
XP(X) -0.14 0 0.09 0.24 0.87
X2P(X) 0.14 0 0.09 0.48 2.61
∑ 𝑋 2𝑃 𝑋 = 0.14 + 0 + 0.09 + 0.48 + 2.61 = 3.32
𝑉 𝑋 = 3.32 − 1.062 = 2.20
𝑉 𝑌 = 𝑉 𝑐𝑋 = 𝑐2𝑉 𝑋 = 82 2.20 = 𝟏𝟒𝟎. 𝟖

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Example
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the
Laws of Expected Values and Variance:
b. Z = 4𝑥 + 1
Find the value of mean since 𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋)
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29
𝐸(𝑋) = 1.06

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Example
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the
Laws of Expected Values and Variance:
b. Z = 4𝑥 + 1
Find the value of mean since 𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋)
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29
𝐸(𝑋) = 1.06
𝐸𝑍 = 𝐸 4𝑥 + 1 = 4𝐸 𝑥 + 1 = 4 1.06 + 1 = 𝟓. 𝟐𝟒

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Example
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the
Laws of Expected Values and Variance:
b. Z = 4𝑥 + 1 ; Find the value of variance
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29

𝑉𝑋 = 3.32 − 1.062 = 2.20

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Example
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the
Laws of Expected Values and Variance:
b. Z = 4𝑥 + 1 ; Find the value of variance
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29

2
𝑉 𝑋 = 3.32 − 1.06 = 2.20
𝑉𝑌 = 𝑉 𝑐𝑋 + 𝑑 = 𝑐2𝑉 𝑋 = 42 2.20 = 35.20

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Example
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the
Laws of Expected Values and Variance:
c. T = 3𝑥 − 2
Find the value of mean and variance.
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29
𝐸(𝑋) = 1.06

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Example
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the
Laws of Expected Values and Variance:
c. T = 3𝑥 − 2
Find the value of mean since 𝜇 = 𝐸(𝑋)
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29
𝐸(𝑋) = 1.06
𝐸𝑇 = 𝐸 3𝑥 − 2 = 3𝐸 𝑋 − 2 = 3 1.06 − 2 = 1.18

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Example
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the
Laws of Expected Values and Variance:
c. T = 3𝑥 − 2 ; Find the value of variance
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29

𝑉𝑋 = 2.20

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Example
1. Given the values below, solve for the following by applying the
Laws of Expected Values and Variance:
c. T = 3𝑥 − 2 ; Find the value of variance
X -1 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.14 0.36 0.09 0.12 0.29

𝑉 𝑋 = 2.20
𝑉𝑇 = 𝑉 3𝑥 − 2 = 𝑉 3𝑥 = 32𝑉 𝑥 = 9(2.20) = 19.80

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Resources
• Mann, P. (2015). Introductory Statistics, 9th Edition. John Wiley
and Sons, Inc.

• Bluman, A. (2017). Elementary Statistics: A Step By Step

Approach, 10th Edition. McGraw-Hill Education

shs.mapua.edu.
End of Presentation