EKONOMI MAKRO

INDONESIA

Dr. Abdul Aziz Ahmad

 Indonesia: Karakteristik wilayah

• Area daratan : 1.904.4432 km

• Area lautan : 3.116.1632 km
• Area Total : 5.020.6062 km
• Jalur pantai : 81.000 km
• Populasi : 242 juta orang (pupulasi terbesar keempat))
• Bahasa : Indonesian (Bahasa Indonesia)
• Negar demokrasi terbesar ketiga (Setelah US dan India)
2
PDB PPP : USD 1,2 T
PDB PPP per capita : USD 4944
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi : 5,4 %
Pertumbuhan Investasi : 27,3 %
Rasio Hutang LN thd PDB : 26,1 %
Tingkat Inflasi : 8,3 %
Ranking Investasi 2013 : Moody’s Baa3
Fitch BBB -
S&P BB +
Populasi : 240 m (4th most population)
60% under 39 years old
Tingkat Pengangguran : 6,7 %

3
EKONOMI
INDONESIA
DALAM
FENOMENA
GLOBALISASI
Characteristics of Globalization Era;
• Capitalism is historically rooted in international trade
• Division of labour on the international scale
• Movement of goods, money, people between countries creates
a global network of economic ties
• A global capitalist economy gradually emerges as a result of
integration of national economies into a single world system
• Key role of states in its creation and development
• First leader – Holland (17th-18th centuries), then - Great Britain
(18th - 19th centuries)
• Challenged by others (France, Germany), displaced by the
United States in the 20th century
The Great Silk Road, 3d century BCE – 15th century CE
Global trade and capital flows, 1400-1800
Global trade in consumer goods
WORD POPULATION
FACTS
 Trend of Population Distribution by Island
100%

90%
Lainnya
80%

70%
Sulawesi
60%

50% 69% 65% 64% 62% 60% 60% 57% Kalimantan

40%

30%
Jawa &
20% Madura
18% 19% 20% 20% 21%
10%
14% 16% Sumatera
0%

1930 1961 1971 1980 1990 2000 2010

Population concentrated in Java Island

15
GLOBAL ECONOMY OUTLOOK
 Global outlook
3.0% 2.2%
1.8% 1.9%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2011 2012 2013
- 2016

2.0% 1.7%
1.3%
-0.3%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0% 6.0% 4.3% 4.6%
3.5%
2011 2012 2013 - 4.0%
2016 2.0%
• Asia 6.0% 3.1 4.0
%
4.7
%
0.0%
%
• Australasia 4.0%
2.0%
2011 2012 2013 -
2016
• North Africa and Middle East 0.0%
2011 2012 2013 -
• Sub-Saharan Africa 2016
• Western Europe 4.5% 4.3% 4.2% 6.0% 4.4% 4.8%
3.8%
• and • North America 4.0% 3.6% 4.0%

• and • Latin America 3.5%

3.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2011 2012 2013 - 2011 2012 2013 -
Source: Economic Intelligence Unit, March 2012 2016 2016
 Global outlook

10.0 GDP growth by region 1

8.0

6.0
4.9
4.0 3.8
3.0
GDP groth (% p.a)

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

-8.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

World Transition economies Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: Economic Intelligence Unit, March 2012

The global economy is on a narrow path of slow and fragile Oil and commodity prices remain high and will continue to put
recovery. Many countries are struggling with a massive debt further pressure on the global economy
burden and high unemployment persisting to bog down their
economies and hampering growth.
 Global outlook

GDP growth by region 2

8.0

6.0

4.0 4.2
GDP groth (% p.a)

3.0
2.0 2.3
1.6

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

World North America Western Europe Asia & Australasia (incl Japan) Latin America

Source: Economic Intelligence Unit, March 2012

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) March economic outlook, world GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% on
a market exchange rates basis in 2012, slowing down markedly from the previous two years.
 Changes in global economic risks

Greater Russia region

- 2.4%
North American region
Europe region 1000
- 0.9%
- 1.2%
500
1,500
1000
0
1,000 2008 2020 2050
500 Middle East region
500 0.8%
0
- 2008 2020 2050 1500
2008 2020 2050
1000

Latin America & the African region 500

Caribbean region 1.8% 0 Asia pacific region

2008 2020 2050
0.9% 600 1.2%
2500
800
400 2000
600
1500
Legend 400 200
1000
Production (Mn tonnes) 200 0 500
0 2008 2020 2050 0
Consumption (Mn tonnes) 2008 2020 2050 2008 2020 2050

Compounded annual
growth rate consumption

Source: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050, World Energy Council (values in mn tonnes)
 Energy intensity

Economic growth is closely related to growth in

800 energy consumption because the more energy is
700 used, the higher the economic growth. However, it
is possible to decouple energy consumption and
600
economic growth to some extent. More efficient
500 use of energy may entail economic growth and a
400
reduction in energy use.

300

200

100

World
Latin America

Western Europe
Sub-Saharan Africa

North America
Asia and Australiasia
East-Central Europe

Middel East and North Africa

1990 2000 2010 2015

Economist Intelligence Unit, KPMG calculations
Cumulative investment in energy infrastructure require 2011 – 2035

Coal - $1.1 trillion Bio-Fuels - $0.3 trillion

3% 1%

Natural Gas - $9.5 trillion

45% 25%
Power- $16.9 trillion

26%

Oil- $10.0 trillion

World Energy Outlook 2011, (2010 real terms)
 Global outlook

United States Europe Japan

 The economy grew by 1.7% in  European economic growth  Manufacturing in Japan is

2011, but grew by 2.8% in Q4 slowed during 2011 to 1.5% already experiencing a v-
of 2011. and is expected to contract shaped recovery after the
further in 2012 to -0.3%, before March 2011 earthquake and
 The inflation rate for 2011
a modest recovery in 2013. tsunami.
doubled to 3.2% from 1.6% in
2010.  Inflation should remain  GDP is expected to grow at
relatively low and contract to around 1.5% in 2012 on the
 Growth prospects for Q1 2012
around 2.2% in 2012 from the back of reconstruction activities
are around 2 to 2.2% on the
2.7% observed in 2011. and a recent upswing in
back of a gain in consumer
machinery exports and local
confidence’s subsequent retail  The European debt crises consumption.
sales and manufacturing. threatened to derail global
recovery for the last two years
 Persistently high
unemployment and risks of
downturns in markets abroad
will keep the FED’s policy rate
at very low levels until even as
late as 2014.
 Global outlook
Emerging Markets
 Fears surrounding an
economic downturn have lead
EM central banks to either cut
their interest rates or postpone
monetary tightening during
2011.
 Market expectations are that
EM countries will outperform
developed countries between
2013 - 2016, as interest rate
differentials will favour
investment into these EM
countries over that of the
OECD economies.
BRICS
 The BRIC countries are
recognised as having very
large economies and
populations, with unravelled
growth potential in foreseeable
years.
 The Brazilian economy
experienced rapid expansion in
the last decade with strong
economic growth
 Russia experienced strong
economic growth over the past
few years, but manufacturing
and foreign investment slowed
down since the global
downturn.
The Next 11
 The Next 11 consist of South
Korea, Iran, Mexico, Turkey,
Philippines, Indonesia, Egypt,
Nigeria, Pakistan, Vietnam and
Bangladesh.
 These economies are smaller
in size than the BRIC countries,
but with its large population
size and growth rates of above
the global average, promises
favourable opportunities for
future investment and market
growth.
 INDONESIA
ECONOMY OUTLOOK
 Ekonomi kita*)…..
25 25

Philippines (2009) Thailand (2008) India (2007) Indonesia (2009)

20 20

Absorpsi Belanja APBN Amat Lemah

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month

 Problem besar APBN adalah ketidakberdayaan aparat birokrasi membelanjakan APBN secara
tepat waktu. Akibatnya, stimulus fiskal menjadi lemah. Pertumbuhan ekonomi menjadi tidak
optimal.
*) Sumber: A. Tony Prasetiantono, Ph.D dalam , dalam Ceramah Umum Dies Natalis ke-57 , Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis
Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, 10 September 2012
 Ekonomi kita…..
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Asia Tenggara, 2011

 Perekonomian Indonesia tumbuh paling cepat di Asia Tenggara.

 Penyebab: (1) konsumsi domestik yang didukung oleh fenomena middle-class; (2) komoditas
primer menjadi unggulan di saat krisis, sebagaimana krisis 2009; (3) rendahnya ketergantungan
terhadap perekonomian global; (4) sehatnya sektor finansial, terutama perbankan, dibanding
saat the years of living dangerously.
 Ekonomi kita…..
Kebijakan Fiskal yang Berhati-hati

 Indonesia termasuk sangat prudent dalam pengelolaan fiskal, terutama dalam hal utang.
Yunani bangkrut karena rasio utang pemerintah terhadap PDB mencapai 170%. Indonesia cuma
25,7%.
 Meski rasio Jepang tinggi (200%), namun perekonomian Jepang stabil. Mungkin hal ini
disebabkan Gross National Product (GNP) Jepang lebih tinggi daripada Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). Indonesia sebaliknya.
 Ekonomi kita…..
Indikator Ekonomi Makro Utama
( %) ( %) INFLATION RATE (% )
8 GDP GROWTH 16

7 6.9
6.3 6.5 6.3 12.1
6 12

5.2 5.8
5 4.5
8 8.2
4 7.0
4.0 6.65
3 5.8 5.54
5.1 4.61 4.5
3.7 3.79 3.65 3.97
4
2 3.4
3.56
2.8
1
0
0

Jan

Mar
Apr
Feb
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

LOAN GROWTH RH % grow th ( %) BI RATE

since Jan 08 10
LH o/s in IDR-T
All & PB 9.3
2,500 250%
9
2,000 200% 8.5
1,500 150% 8 8.0
7.8
1,000 100%
7 7.0 6.75
500 50% 6.5
6
0 0% 6 5.75
Jan

Mar
Apr
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

Feb

5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Jan

Mar
Apr
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4

Feb

May
All Growth all Growth PB
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
 Ekonomi kita…..
10% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IDR EXCHANGE RATE AGAINST USD
13,500

12,000 11,555
9%
8.39%
10,500
8.14% 9,665
8.46%
8% 9,100 9,191
9,065 9,010 9,068
9,000
7.41% 9,205 9,144
7.87% 8,925
7.14% 8,576
7% 6.80%
7,500
6.56%
6.32%
6,000

Jan

Mar
Apr
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

Feb
6%
Feb'08 Aug'08 Feb'09 Aug'09 Feb'10 Aug'10 Feb'11 Aug'11 Feb'12 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

STOCK INDEX
4,500 4,181
4,000 3,889 3,822
4,122
3,500
3,501 3,985
3,549
3,000

2,500 2,447 2,913

2,349 2,443
2,000 2,027
1,846
1,500 1,434
1,000
1,355

500
Jan

Mar
Apr
Feb
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

 US$/barrel
Crude Oil Price
120
113.93

107.1
110
104.93
Coal Price Reference (HBA)
100.59 103.02
98.83 99.56 125
100 96.77 122.0
95.7 93.32
91.16
120 119.0 118.2 116.7
117.2
90 85.37 116.3
119.2
117.6 112.7
79.2 115 111.6 112.9
80
109.3
110
70 105.6
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 105

Source: Nasdaq
100

95
Apr-11 May- Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug- Sep- Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec- Jan-12 Feb- Mar- Apr-12
11 11 11 11 12 12

1,400
CPO Price

1,300

1,200 1,143 1,157

1,124
1,106
1,076
1,100 1,048 1,048
1,034 1,021
995 986 969
1,000
914

900

800
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
 Ekonomi kita…..
BI Rate and Headline Inflation
 Ekonomi kita…..
Inflasi Masih Rendah karena Subsidi BBM Besar
 Ekonomi kita…..
Neraca Perdagangan Tertekan Sangat Kuat
250
203.5
200
157.73
150 136.66
125.34 135.61
113.63 115.82 117.44 113.11 112.78
100.36
93.25
100 73.87
60.55
50

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Juli 2012
Ekspor Impor

 Untuk pertama kalinya neraca perdagangan mengalami defisit USD 600 juta (April), dan USD 486
juta (Mei) dan USD 1,32 miliar (Juni). Penyebabnya: penurunan harga komoditas primer dan
kenaikan impor barang modal dan impor minyak.
 Ekonomi kita…..
PDB Dunia (nominal dan PPP), 2011
 Ekonomi kita…..
PDB Asia Tenggara, 2010

Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Vietnam
Myanmar
Brunei D.
Cambodia
Lao Republic
Timor-Leste
0.000 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 800.000
 APBN-P 2011 RAPBN 2012
A. Pendapatan Negara dan Hibah 1.169.914,6 1.292.877,7
I. Penerimaan Dalam Negeri 1.165.252,5 1.292.052,6
1. Penerimaan Perpajakan 878.685,2 1.019.332,4
a. Pajak Dalam Negeri 831.745,3 976.898,8
b. Pajak Perdagangan Internasional 46.939,9 42.433,6
2. Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak 286.567,3 272.720,2
II. Hibah 4.662,1 825,1
B. Belanja Negara 1.320.751,3 1.418.497,7
I. Belanja Pemerintah Pusat 908.243,4 954.136,8
1. K/L 461.508,0 476.610,2
2. Non K/L 446.735,4 477.526,7
II. Transfer ke Daerah 412.507,9 464.360,9
1. Dana Perimbangan 347.538,6 394.138,6
2. Dana Otonomi Khusus dan Penyesuaian 64.969,3 70.222,3
III. Suspen 0,0 0,0
C. Keseimbangan Primer (44.252,9) (2.548,1)
D. Surplus/Defisit Anggaran (A-B) (150.836,7) (125.620,0)
% terhadap PDB (2,1) (1,5)
E. Pembiayaan 150.836,7 125.620,0
I. Pembiayaan Dalam Negeri 153.613,3 125.912,3
II. Pembiayaan Luar Negeri (netto) (2.776,6) (292,3)
 GDP Growth
10
6.35 6.01 4.63 6.22 6.49 6.23
Percentage (%) of GDP

5.69 5.5 5.78

5 4.7 4.5 4.78 5.06 5.35 5.19 3.91 6
4.12 4.67 3.64 3.79 5.03 4.66 5.25 3.18 3.7
3.61 4.2 2.83 2.7 2.9
2.62 0.79 2.33
0 -0.38
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-5

-10
-13.13
-15
Indonesia GDP World GDP

42
 Looking to the long term,
Indonesia will become a high income country
PREPARATION ACCELERATION CONTINUATION

Indonesia becomes a high income

country with GDP per capita USD
$46,900
14,250-USD 15,500 $38,600
$30,400
GDP Nominal per capita $22,500
$14,900
$9,000
$3,005 $5,300

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

GDP Nominal (US$ Billion)
12,98 16,57
711 1,335 2,416 4,257 6,793 9,706
9 8
Population (Million people)
237 253 269 286 302 319 336 353
 IMF projects Indonesia to achieve the second fastest growth
amongst the world’s 18 largest economies during 2009-2015
GPD Nominal Growth (2009 – 2015)

Russia 15,7%

Indonesia 14,5%

China 12,4%

India 12,1%

Brazil 11,7%

South Korea 10,0%

Turkey 9,9%

USA 4,1%

Japan 4,0%

ASEAN (excl. Indonesia) 9,6%

Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011
 Indonesia’s economy will become more dominant in ASEAN and
larger than several countries in Europe
Indonesia Economic Growth (nominal)
(USD Billion)
CAGR 14.5%

Indonesia’s economy as % of

ASEAN- 40% 48% 53%

6
ASEAN
(Total 11 38% 46% 52%
Countries)

European Countries:
Spain 50% 60% 91%

Netherlands 91% 105% 165%

Source:International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011; Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia 2011 – 2045; Analisa Tim
 Key economic driver

Demography Natural resources

Infrastructure Rise of consumer

Spending power
Exports as a Growth Driver

Exports as aUSGrowth Driver

Non-petrol Imports
Market share
(January-August 2010)

22.87%

12.73% 12.68%

7.63%
5.29%

China Mexico Canada Japan Germany

Source: World Bank
Source: USDOC
 Figure of Trade

Source : BPS
Potential & Main products from Indonesia

49
 Indonesia 2004-2014: Democracy
development
 The rise of political democratization
 Fair and secure the National Elections 2004, 2009, 2014
 Fair and secure local elections in 542 districts

but, then
 Conflicts and insatisfaction
 Slow progress in economic democratization
 End of 2014 and early 2015; high inflation, oil price
fluctuation, scarcity of prime commodities, political
instability……

.. Unclear future economy prospect… ???

 PERSOALAN
PEMBANGUNAN
EKONOMI MAKRO
INDONESIA
 UNEMPLOYMENT DATA:
Source of Data: National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas), conducted
every Feb and August, number of sampel 68,000 HH

Unemployment Rate and Development Target 2004-2014

MTDP: Medium Term Development Plan

PROBLEMS:
 Unemployment Rate: 6,80%  49,5% elementary school
 66% work in informal sector  30,7% under employed
 Poverty reduction is slowing down
number of near poor 68 million peoples WB,2014)

80 Poor Near poor

53
50
70 48 48
44 43 43
60 Near Poor
50 (1.6 below
national poverty
Percent

40 line)
30
18 17 15
20 14 13 12 11 Poor
10 (Below national
0 poverty line)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013

Source: Central Board of Statistics

 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) DATA:
• Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) and Regional GDP,
calculated annualy, districts level
• The usage of HDI: one of the General Allocation Fund allocators

HDI Indonesia, 1996-2010

Life Expectancy By Province, 2009
 MIDTERM performance 2005-2009
targeted unemployment AND POVERTY rate: failed

Target & Realisation of RPJM Projection vs. Realization of

Unemployment Rate Poverty Rate
% 15 14.15
11 Realisation
10.3 10.4 13.33
9.9
% 14.15
12.49 Realisation
10 9.75
11.96
12 11.47
9.9 9.9 11.2
12
9 9.4 8.46 11.5
8.14
10.5
8 8.5
9 9.5
RPJM Projection
7 7.3 RPJM Projection
8

6 6
5.7 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
5 (*)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(*) 2014 up to QI (*) 2014 up to QI

 Inequality
income disparity

Lowest 40% Middle 40% Top 20% Gini Ratio (Right Axis)
60 0.45

50

40 0.4
Percent

30

20 0.35

10

0 0.3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Central Board of Statistics
 TREND OF POVERTY AND GINI RATIO 2004-2011

Poor People (%)

Gini Ratio

Poverty decreases but income inequality tends to increase ....

 Public welfare :
real labour wages and farmers’ exchange value

Real and Nominal Labour Index of farmers exchange

Wages value
Ribu Indeks,
Rupiah 2007= 100
108
2,000
1,800 106
1,600 Nominal
Wage 104
1,400
1,200 102
1,000
100
800
600 98

400
Real Wage 96
200
- 94
May-09

May-10

May-11

May-12

May-13
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13
Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03

Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
 GOVERNMENT’S HANDS off: labour-
intensive sectors
Wood and other wood products
Iron and steel basic metal Sectoral Average Annual Growth
Forestry (2004 - Q2/2014)
Other manufacturing products
Cement and non metalic quarrying products
Paper and printing products
Textile, leather products and footwear
Livestock and its products
Estate crops
Fishery
Fertilizers, chemical and rubber products
Food crops
Food, beverages and tobacco
Transport equipment, machinery and apparatus

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Percent
Source: Central Bank of Indonesia
 REGIONAL INCOME DISPARITY, 2012
18
West Papua HIGH GROWTH
16 HIGH GROWTH HIGH INCOME
LOW INCOME
14

12
Sulawesi Tenggara
RGDP Growth (%)

10
Maluku Riau
8 DKI Jakarta
6
Maluku Utara
Riau East Kalimantan
4
LOWH GROWTH
2 LOW INCOME Papua LOW GROWTH
HIGH INCOME
0 West Nusa Tenggara

-2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Percapita RGDP (Billion)
Source: Central Board of Statistics
 REGIONAL POVERTY & UNEMPLOYMENT, 2012

35
HIGH POVERTY Papua Barat HIGH POVERTY
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
30
Papua

25
East Nusa Tenggara
Poverty (%)

Maluku
20 Bengkulu Gorontalo Aceh

15 West Nusa Tenggara

West Sulawesi

10 West Java
Central Kalimantan East Kalimantan
Banten
North Sulawesi
5 Bali DKI Jakarta
LOW POVERTY LOW POVERTY
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Open Unemployment Rate (%)

Source: Central Board of S