Chapter 4: Probability

(Cont.)
In this handout:
•Venn diagrams
• Event relations
• Laws of probability
• Conditional probability
• Independence of events
Venn Diagram: representing events graphically
Example: Toss a coin twice.
Let event A corresponds to “ tail at the second toss ”;
event B corresponds to “ at least one head ”.
Example: Two monkeys to be selected by lottery for an experiment.

Label the possible pairs

(elementary outcomes):
{1, 2} e1 {2, 3} e4
{1, 3} e2 {2, 4} e5
{1, 4} e3 {3, 4} e6

Let
A: selected monkeys are of the
same type;
B: selected monkeys are of the
same age;
The complement of an event A is the set of all elementary outcomes that are not in A.
The union of events A and B is the set of all elementary outcomes that are in A, B, or
both.
The intersection of events A and B is the set of all elementary outcomes that are in A
and B.
Example:
Equal chances that the answer to a problem is correct or wrong.
What is the probability of getting at least one correct answer?

P(at least one correct answer) = 1 – P(all answers wrong)

= 1 – 1/8 = 7/8
 Conditional probability
The probability of an event A must often be modified after information is
obtained as to whether or not a related event B has taken place.
Example:

Q1: Probability that a randomly-selected person has hypertension?

Q2: A randomly-selected person is overweight. What is the probability
that the person also has hypertension?
Let A denote “has hypertension”, B denote “overweight”.
Then P(has hypertension given that overweight) = P( A | B ) = .1/.25 = .4
 Conditional probability

Box on Page 143

Conditioned probability; multiplication law of probability
Independence of Events
 Independence of Events

Example: A mechanical system consists of two components. Component

1 has reliability (probability of not failing) .98 and component 2 has
reliability .95. If the system can function only if both components
function, what is the reliability of the system?
Let
A1 denote “component 1 functions”,
A2 denote “component 2 functions”,
S denote “system functions”.
Given that the components operate independently, we take the events A1
and A2 to be independent.
Thus, P(S) = P(A1) P(A2) = .98 * .95 = .931