Moldova:

Small country with big geopolitical role

Monika Begovic PhD

International Conference, Chisinau, Moldova

28 November 2016
 New geopolitical challenges

• Interests of great powers in today’s world create a

more challenging environment for small countries
(small powers?) 
• Consequence:
Small countries need to keep options open and to balance
multiple relationships;
Their attractiveness depends on strategic considerations of
great powers
 New geopolitical challenges

Moldova is a small state 

Why is it so important for Russia, EU, but also USA?
• Moldova is a small but strategic country located in the European
borderlands - strategically important buffer zone between East and
West;
• It is an important component of the relations between Moscow and
the West;
• Moldova today is in the ‘grey zone’ between Western (EU and NATO)
and Russian influence

Both Russia (East) and the European Union (West) have long competed
for influence in Moldova
 New geopolitical challenges

Moldova and its geopolitical role:

• there’s still an ongoing competition between Russia and the West over
the part of the territory of the former Soviet Union
• the whole geopolitical space of the former Soviet Union was
considered significant due to the transportation of oil and gas 
Moldova matters as a transit point for the movement of oil and
natural gas from Russia into Europe and Turkey
• Moldova: proximity to the strategic Ukrainian port of Odessa and to
the Russia-controlled Crimean Peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea
Fleet is stationed
 Geopolitical challenges - Russia

Role of Russia:

• Russia's strong military presence in the breakaway territory

of Transdniestria and in pro-Russia pockets of Moldovan
territory (Gaguzia) give Moscow significant leverage
Geopolitical implications

• Russia doesn’t want Moldova to orientate towards the

West - Russia needs to preserve a buffer zone between
itself and NATO
• Moscow retains a strong presence in Moldova's financial
sector – media report that roughly 70% of Moldova's
banking sector is controlled by Russian capital
Geopolitical implications

Transnistria

After the annexation of the Crimea by

Russia in March 2014 the head of the
Transnistrian parliament asked to join
the Russian Federation
 Geopolitical challenges - West

Role of the West:

• the country has(d) pro-Western orientation:

• relations with NATO through PfP – no plans to join due to
Moldova’s neutrality
• striving for EU membership  relations between Moldova and
the EU are currently shaped via the European Neighbourhood
Policy (ENP), an EU foreign policy instrument dealing with
countries bordering its member states
 Moldova & EU

Eastern Partnership (EaP)

• specific Eastern dimension to the European Neighborhood
Policy (ENP), designed to reinforce the political association
and economic integration of eastern European partner
countries.
• governs its relationship with the post-Soviet
states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova,
and Ukraine
• provides an avenue for discussions of trade, economic
strategy, travel agreements, and other issues between the EU
and its eastern neighbors
 Geopolitical implications

Role of Romania:

• Could moving towards West (EU) lead towards unification

with Romania?

On 27 November 2013, a day before participation in the Eastern

Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Romanian President Basescu was
interviewed and said that the third priority for Romania, after
joining NATO and the EU, must be the union with Moldova
Demographic structure

• Moldovan demography:

Moldovans (and Romanians) ~ 80%; Ukrainan ~ 8%; Russian ~ 6%; Gagauz ~

4.5%; Bulgarian ~ 2%

• Languages:
Moldovan ~ 60%; Romanian ~ 17% (?); Russian ~ 16%; Ukrainian ~ 4%; Gaguaz ~
3%; Bulgarian 1%
 Internal political development

Presidential elections:

• Is the election of Igor Dodon a sign that Moldova may diverge from
Europe?
• Is Moldova, in that case, going to follow the footsteps of Hungary and
Poland?
• the Moldovan election is crucial in further development of Moldovan
orientation towards East or West

Igor Dodon is the first president in 20 years to be directly elected by

citizens rather than being chosen by parliament
 Elections

• Moldova’s presidential election are shaping the

country’s politics and international orientation 

pro-Russian President, of Russian ethnic background,

President who promises to strengthen ties with Russia
and makes the economy of Moldova grow
• The election was seen as a battle between those supporting closer ties with
Russia and those wanting integration with the European Union
Igor Dodon’s campaign was concetrated towards neglecting the
association agreement with Europe and joining a Russian-sponsored
economic bloc instead:
Igor Dodon said the election “mark a new beginning” for a country
blighted by poverty and graft
 Political system of Moldova

Moldova is a parliamentary republic;

But:
the President in Moldova is more than just a figurehead:
i.e. the President can return laws to parliament and dissolve
the assembly in certain situations
And:
Moldova has not had a stable parliamentary government for
almost 2 years
Geopolitical implications

President vs. Government

Dodon's promise to pursue closer ties with Russia rather

than the European Union is in direct conflict with the pro-
European stance of the current government
 Plans after elections?

Obvious political message:

Presidential elections aren’t key elections, but they’re a

means to strengthen the socialists for a victory which will
mean something — at the parliamentary elections in 2018 
Russia will use this
 Reflections...

Comparison with the Western Balkan country Macedonia:

• West vs. East

• Language: Moldovan or Romanian?; Macedonian or Bulgarian?
• Nations – Moldovans or Romanians?; Macedonians or Macedonians from
Greek region Macedonia
• Unification of Moldova with Romania as a precedent  Albanians in
Macedonia could ask unification of part of Macedonian territory where they
make majority with Albania
• Big migration – Moldavians have Romanian passports, and Macedonians
Bulgarian
• Poverty and corruption
Moldova – what next...

Moldova must continue to balance between its

Eastern and Western neighbors and
continue to carry out reforms.
Reforms cannot be taken from some other country,
they have to be carried out by the people of the country!
Moldova – what next...

- Small countries absorb the greatest contradictions of geopolitics -

Moldova...

Thank you!