Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Potential Performance
Actual Performance
• Economic
– US$80 Billion per Year
• Environmental
– 1 Billion Tonnes of CO2 Reduction
per Year and Proportional Reductions
of Other Emissions
• Confirmed by
– Analytical studies
– Practical experiences
• www.worldenergy.org
Click on “Work Programme”
Click on “Performance of Generating Plant”
Click on “Case Studies”
• Each Case Study demonstrates actual value
received by use of performance data
Objective
Alabama
Power
Georgia
Power
Savannah
Electric
Mississippi
Power
Gulf
Power
95
93
91
89
87
85
83
81
79
77
75
73
71
69
67
65
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
• Replacement energy
• Deferred construction
• Reduced reserve margin requirements
• Increased customer service reliability
10,600
10,400
10,200
10,000
9,800
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Benefits = $1,235,000,000
+ 108,000,000
$1,343,000,000 per year
Performance
Improvement
• Benchmarking
• Forecasting
• Communications
• Benchmarking
– April 2002 WEC Case Study
– August 2002 WEC Case Study
– September 2003 WEC Case Study
Large Population
Exact Match
x x x x x
x
x x x
x x
x x x x
Number of Exact Matches 0
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 37
Peer Selection Criteria
Etc.
Etc.
Vintage Fuel
Firing Etc.
Boiler Duty
Manufacturer ASSUME
Criticality Age
Etc. Turbine
Size
Manufacturer
Etc. Draft
Etc.
Etc.
Vintage Fuel
Firing Etc.
Boiler ANALYSIS Duty
Manufacturer
Criticality Age
Etc. Turbine
Size
Manufacturer
Etc. Draft
Significance Testing
Subcritical Supercritical Baseload Duty Cyclic Duty
EFOR EFOR
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 41
Peer Groups Select Criteria
Fossil Units
CRITICALITY
Super Sub
VINTAGE MODE OF OPERATION
<1972 ≥1972 Cycling Baseload
Size Boiler Mfr.
Draft Type Draft Type
Fuel Size
SUPERCRITICAL TECHNOLOGY
EFOR - PLANT A
OLD CRITERIA NEW CRITERIA % difference
(Coal; 100-199MW)
EFOR - PLANT B
100
90
CUMULATIVE PERCENT
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
EFOR (%)
100
90
C U M UL A T IVE PERC EN T
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 5 10 15 20
SOF (%)
100
90
CUMULATIVE PERCENT
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
70 75 80 85 90 95 100
EAF (%)
Past Conditions
Past Results ~ Future Conditions
Future Results
– Component Benchmarking
• Two options
– #1 - Components from all groups but using
component design and operational data for
selecting peer groups
– # 2 - Components in peer group of unit-level
benchmarking
Unit A Unit B
FOR 10% 10%
Fewer, smaller
events but 1
Many small major event of
Type of Outages events 3 weeks length
"Normal" FOR 10% ~4%
Implications
1) The two units have had very different failure
modes
2) We should adapt our benchmarking analysis
and improvements efforts to account for
these differences.
HILPs Happen!!
• No power plant in immune to HILPs
• While your staff must react to the “problems
of the day” some resources should be
devoted to searching for cost-effective ways
to prevent, detect or mitigate HILPs
• Addressing HILP causes and seeking
solutions “before a HILP occurs” is a proven
way to move from a fire-fighting to pro-active
style of management
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 80
Conclusions & Recommendations
The Future
• Competition is here (or just around the corner)
• Market-based business environments using
terms like Commercial Availability to indicate
the effects of your plant’s outages on the
company’s profitability makes it crucial to
better manage your plant’s reliability to be
available when its value is greatest
• A good HILP reduction program can help move
you to becoming one of the industry leaders
(or if already a leader to staying there)
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 81
EFOR After Scheduled Outages
Problem
Tube failure in 7A feedwater heater
Requires isolation of 6A & 7A heaters
1% efficiency loss during isolation
• Solution Options
1) Remove unit from service immediately, locate and plug leaking
tube
• Consequences
– Option 1- repair immediately
• 48 hour outage during high demand period
• Overtime labor cost of $1000
• Start-up cost of $20,000
• Total cost = $217,000
• Consequences
– Option 2- repair during weekend
• 48 hour outage during lower demand period
• Overtime labor cost of $1000
• Start-up cost of $20,000
• 1% efficiency penalty until weekend
• Total cost = $137,000
• Consequences
– Option 3 -repair during next planned outage
• 1% efficiency penalty until next planned outage
• Total cost = $202,000
• Consequences
– Option 4- repair during next forced outage
• Applications
– Maintenance
• Reactive (e.g. planned outage extension)
• Proactive (e.g. condition directed maintenance)
– Operations
• Reactive (e.g. tube leaks)
• Proactive (e.g. pump operations)
Awareness
• FOR, EFOR
In Example
FOR = EFOR = 25%
Where: f = (1/r)+(1/T)
(1/r)+(1/T)+(1/D)
fp = SH/AH
r= FOH/(# of FOH occur.)
T= RSH/(# of attempted Starts)
D= SH/(# of actual starts)
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 110
EFORd Concept
EFOR vs EFORd
45.00
40.00
EFOR & EFORd, % ,
35.00
30.00 EFOR, range from 3.9 to 42.4%
25.00
20.00
15.00
EFORd, range from 3.9 to 10.6%
10.00
5.00
0.00
621.70
121.70
7621.70
7121.70
6621.70
6121.70
5621.70
5121.70
4621.70
4121.70
3621.70
3121.70
2621.70
2121.70
1621.70
1121.70
Reserve Shutdown Hours
Performance
Improvement
Transforming to a Market-Driven
Business Environment
Avoid Risk
Risk = $5
Reward
Option 1 - $20 @ 100% probability = $20.00
Option 2 - $2000 @ 1/47 probability = $42.55
Reward/Risk
Option 1 - $20/$5 =4
Option 2 - $42.55/ $5 = 8.51 (Actually better since
other winning cards could be drawn; i.e. a different
heart for a flush or a different queen for a straight)
Climate
Leadership & Selection Training
Culture
Executive Management
Plant Management
Plant Supervisor
Individuals
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 127
Need Better
• Decision Tools
– Identify viable decision
options
– Combine technical
consequences with
economics
– Evaluate options based
on financials results
– Monitor results and refine
process
From Example
Potential Gross Margin = $73500
Actual Gross Margin = $66000
Goal Gross Margin = $71400
G.M. achieved above goal =($5400)
Traditional Availability = 60.0%
Forced Outage Rate (d) = 28.6%
Commercial Availability = 89.8%
Goal C. A. = 97.1%
• Benchmarking
– Selection
– Comparisons
• Design Impacts
• Goals Systems
– Direct linkage between
• Plant results
• Corporate objectives
Availability 100%
Top Quartile
Frontier
Availability 100%
Top Quartile
Frontier
Availability 100%
$ Cost Of
Unavailability
Availability 100%
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 152
Optimum Economic Availability
$ Cost Of
Unavailability
Availability 100%
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 153
Optimum Economic Availability
$ Cost Of
Unavailability
Availability 100%
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 154
Optimum Economic Availability
Availability 100%
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 155
Optimum Economic Availability
Top Quartile
Frontier
Proactive Reactive
Availability 100%
Reactive
Optimum Economic Availability
Reactive Cost Target
Availability 100%
Richwine Consulting Group, LLC 157
Need Better
• Goals Systems
– Direct linkage between
• Plant results
• Corporate objectives
• Objective –
– Minimize a plant’s total controllable production
cost (or maximize its contribution to corporate
profitability)
• Method
– Convert a plant’s technical goals (availability,
efficiency, etc.) to the company’s economic goals
– Develop economic forecasts of the worth of
performance improvement and incorporate them into
decision tools provided to production staff
– Train production employees in the use of these tools,
integrating their local “technical” knowledge with
corporate economics
– Give production management the flexibility to make
tradeoffs between individual performance/spending
goals in order to minimize the cost of electricity
and/or maximize the corporate profitability
• Consequences
– More revenue uncertainties
– More cost uncertainties
– More risk
– More opportunities
Presented by
RRR2@bellsouth.net
+1-678-231-3606
Atlanta, Georgia, USA 30076