Vision 2050

The Change to a Sustainable Energy Path

By Gunnar Boye Olesen, Emil Bedi

& Ann Vikkelsoe
INFORSE-Europe
Article on Vision 2050 at www.inforse.org
International Network for Sustainable Energy – Europe
is a network of 55 NGOs.
INFORSE-Europe is supported by
EU Commission DG Environment, Danish Open Air Council and others

Sustainable Energy for Europe – INFORSE-Europe seminar – Brussels 27-28 November 2002
 Vision 2050 - Background
The world energy system:
 is beyond the environmental limits
 does not provide basic energy needs as light and
healthy cooking facilities to 2 billions of the world’s
population
 To avoid dangerous climate change we must limit
global warming to 1ºC in the 21st Century
 We should provide all with basic energy needs and
allow developing countries to develop, including use
of cheap energy supply
INFORSE
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 Environmental Limit:
Climate Change
 Tobe sure to keep global warming below 1ºC
century, we must limit global CO2 emissions to
about 250 Gigaton of Carbon in 21st century =
35 years of current consumption (assumed
climate sensitivity of 3.5ºC)

 The climate sensitivity is commonly accepted

to be in the range of 2 to 5ºC with an average
of 3.5ºC.
A Global Sustainable Scenario
CO2 (MtC)/y

7000
6000
5000
4000
3000 1990- After 2000:
2000 2000:
1000 64 GtC 240 GtC
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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 Scenario: Energy Services
Industrialised countries Developing countries
9000
8000 Energy Services
7000 per capita
6000
5000 Transport
4000 El.+mechanical

3000 Medium+high t.

2000 Low temp.

1000
0
2000 2050 2000 2050 INFORSE
International Network for Sustainable Energy
 Energy Demand
 Most energy consuming equipment will be replaced
several times before 2050: new generations of
equipment should maximize efficiency. Technology
learning can drive prices down.
 One exception is houses. In EU houses could use
only 1/7 of todays heat demand in 2050. This will
require renovation/re-building of 2% p.a. / heat
consumption 20-40 kWh/year per m2
 For transport is expected increase in efficiency from
todays 15-20% to 50%, and re-gain of “break
energy”. Hydrogen and fuel cells as solutions
together with electrical driven vehicles.
 Energy service demand will increase, also in
industrialized countries, energy demand decrease.
 Primary Energy (TWh/y)
Industrialised countries Developing countries
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000 Nuclear
20000 Fossil
15000 Biomass

10000 Hydro

5000 Solar
Wind
0
2000 2050 2000 2050 INFORSE
International Network for Sustainable Energy
 Energy Supply
Wind: Follow Windforce10 growth from todays 20,000
MW to reach 3,000,000 MW in 2040, then maybe
less afterwards
Large wind power development programs are cost-
effective: extra costs today will be paid back with
future cost reductions due to technology learning.
Some sites give cost-effective electricity today.
Solar: PV could reach 500 MWpeak in 2003, and then
grow 25% pr. year
Biomass and hydro: Increase 30-50% in total
Biomass can be used as transport fuel
INFORSE
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Gigawatt continues consumption
Renewable Energy Potential
10000
9000 52200 GW
8000
Solar centrals
7000
PV on houses
6000
Biomass
5000
Hydro
4000
Windpower on farmland
3000
2000 Wind, off-shore etc.
1000
0
Potential Scenario

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International Network for Sustainable Energy
 Electricity - Worldwide (TWh/y)
25000

20000

15000 Nuclear
Fossil tot.
Hydro
Solar
10000 Wind

5000

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
 Example – Denmark

INFORSE
International Network for Sustainable Energy
 Electricity Supply - Denmark
8000
Electricty Production( kWh/person pr. year)
7000 PV

6000

5000
Wind/hydro/waves

4000
Biomass
Waste
3000

2000
Fossil
1000
Statistic Proposal (Scenario) Vision
0 s
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2030 2050
 Economy - DK scenario until 2030
 The low-energy scenario is 2% cheaper than the
business-as-usual scenario with zero discount rate
 It is 1% more expensive with 5% discount rate
 If environmental costs are included or if fossil fuel
prices increases more than estimated by IEA, the
low-energy scenario is considerably cheaper than
business as usual.
 expected lower growth in energy services: need for
decoupling of economy and energy services

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 Example - Slovakia
600

500
Electricity
400 Heat
PJ/year

Biomass-Heat+fuel
300
Liquids-transport
200 Gas
Coal-black/brown
100

0
Today Possible RE potential
consumption
2050

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 Slovakian Renewable Energy Potentials:

Heat-fuel reneweables - 256 PJ Electricity - renewables

101 PJ
Wood Hydro
Straw
Biogas PV
Wind
Energy
Solar
crops
thermal

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 Energy Infrastructure
 Electricity grid still needed, as today
 Electricity grid needs more regulation with many
decentralised production units ”intelligent grid”
 Need for electricity storage to compensate wind &
PV, in Slovakia hydro pump-storage, in Denmark
probably chemical storage after 2030
 New roles for electricity: transport, heat pumps,
international energy trade
 Nuclear phase-out 2010-2030 or earlier
 Because of large learning rates for the new
technologies, minimal costs.

INFORSE
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 More on Infrastructure
 decentralised power production, to use local
renewables and to cover heat demand (CHP)
 more investments in demand-side efficiency, less in
energy supply, after transition phase 2000-2030
 gas demand stable until 2025, then decline
 hydrogen – fuel cell systems for transport and to
replace gas where local renewables insufficient
 some gas networks can be used for hydrogen
 heat networks to remain in densely built areas

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 Vision 2050
simple spread-sheet model
 Based on energy balance
 Trends for
RE-supply, energy consumption, other fuels
 1990-2050. 2000 base year. 10-years interval

2002
 Denmark, Slovakia and EU
2003
 Hungary, Romania, Belarus (probably)
TABLE 1 Fuel
Oil products Coal & Natural
Year 2000 Coke gas 1)
Diesel+
Orimul- Petro- Fueloil+ heating Petrol+ Refinary Other oil
PJ Crude oil sion coke waste oil oil kerosene Jet fuel LPG gas products
Primary Production 764,53 310,30
Klimakorrektion (forbrug) 0,86 0,57 5,15 0,01 0,08 0,05 3,53 6,59
Refineries (conversion to end products) - 346,27 69,78 139,19 99,76 21,59 8,06 15,56 0,25
Import / export (incl. bunkring and international flights) - 416,62 33,54 5,67 - 61,31 9,26 - 14,89 - 18,56 - 4,66 23,35 158,43 - 120,68
Net storage, reuse and statistical difference - 1,64 0,61 1,12 11,05 1,97 2,97 0,06 0,10 - 1,50 7,49 - 3,11
Total Net supply - 0,00 35,01 6,79 20,09 155,57 87,85 3,09 3,58 15,61 22,09 169,45 193,10
Oil, coal and gas sector
Exploitation own consumption, flaring 25,03
Refinaries own consumption 1,27 13,63 10,07
Electricity and District heating stations 1,60 1,09 0,04 2,83
District heating sector Geothermal stations
Condensing power stations 0,33 0,05 20,30 0,01
Cogeneration stations 35,01 4,55 0,31 1,98 136,67 90,89
RE (solar, wind, hydro, wave, tidal)
Hydrogen
Grid losses etc. 0,15
Final Energy consumption Non-energy purposes 12,03
Transport Road 68,66 86,08 0,53
Rail 3,08 0,01
Domestic aviation 0,05 1,94
Navigation 1,51 3,37 0,00
Defense 0,37 0,00 1,16
Production Farming etc. 0,01 2,03 24,62 0,14 0,23 1,23 3,81
Manufacturing 6,76 8,34 8,95 0,10 1,83 11,16 33,46
Construction 0,04 6,39 0,03 0,17 0,21
Service sector Private 0,01 0,26 3,38 0,02 0,06 4,29
Public 0,01 0,12 2,00 0,01 0,06 2,09
Housheholds 0,01 0,04 33,29 1,40 0,70 0,05 30,33
Final Energy consumption - total, ex. non-energy 6,79 12,34 154,10 87,85 3,09 3,58 12,43 74,19
Total Consumption 35,01 6,79 20,09 155,56 87,85 3,09 3,58 15,61 22,09 169,45 193,10
Specific CO2-emissions (ton CO2/PJ) 2), 3), 4), 5) 80.000 92.000 78.000 74.000 73.000 73.000 65.000 56.900 95.000 56.900
CO2-emissions (million ton CO2) 2,80 0,62 1,57 11,51 6,41 0,23 0,23 0,89 16,10 10,99

Share
TABLE 4 Specific Net Heat Fin. heat Share gas, coal, Share Share Share Share
Consumptions parameters Heated floorspace6) / Production consumption consump Heat. Eff. consump oil waste RE7) electricity district h. total
mill. m2 Factor MJ/m2 Factor PJ % PJ % % % % % %
Private service 49,9 100 0,49 100 24,4 83% 29,3 13% 20% 2% 3% 63% 100%
Public service 38,9 100 0,36 100 14,0 90% 15,6 14% 13% 4% 2% 66% 100%
Households 1 (multifamily) 77,4 100 0,50 100 39,0 93% 42,1 6% 11% 0% 2% 80% 100%
Households 2 (detached) 165,0 100 0,56 100 93,2 80% 116,3 28% 22% 17% 6% 27% 100%
8)
Farming, etc. 100 100 37,5 72% 13% 9% 6% 100%
Manufacturing8) 100 100 82,3 32% 54% 6% 8% 100%
8)
Construction 100 100 6,85 97% 3% 100%
Total 330,0