Some bumps on the road ahead

Nils Larsson
Executive Director, iiSBE,
the International Initiative for a Sustainable Built Environment

Dunedin
November, 2007
 iiSBE at a glance
 An international non-profit organization;
 Focus on guiding the international construction industry towards
sustainable building practices;
 Emphasis is on research and policy, with a special emphasis on
information dissemination, building performance and its assessment;
 Board members from 16 countries;
 Secretariat is in Ottawa (soon moving to Europe);
 Local chapters exist in Italy, Spain, Czech Republic and Portugal,
others are being formed in Poland, France, Malaysia, Taiwan, and
associated organizations exist in Mexico and Brazil;
 Andrea Moro is President, Nils Larsson is XD;
 No paid staff, very active network
 Future context for the construction industry

 Climate change effects - temperatures, precipitation and more;

 Depletion of water resources in some regions;
 Increasing scarcity and cost of oil & gas;
 Scarcity and cost of some building materials, and the need to
develop new alternatives;
 Scarcity of land for new development;
 Reversing the ecological damage of past development;
 Dealing with vagaries of government policies;
 Taking into account the dysfunctional structure of the construction
industry;
 Taking into account the particular nature of buildings and their
occupants;
 Future context for the construction industry
 Need for more renovation activity and improved performance of
renovated buildings;
 Achieving new energy efficiency and green performance
requirements;
 Getting the market to accept less extravagant houses;
 Building new developments at densities high enough to make
public transport and other services viable;
 Increasing the densities of existing suburbs;
 Producing large volumes of extremely low-cost housing and
associated infrastructure in developing countries;
Climate change issues
Source:
WRI
Per capita CO2 emissions at the regional level in 2003

2050?

2020?
Source:
IPCC
Predicted climate change impacts: from IPCC 2007

Examples of major projected

impacts for industry, settlements
and society

Reduced energy demand for heating;

increased demand for cooling, declining air
quality in citiesÉ

Reduction in quality of life for those people in

warm areas without appropriate housing;
impacts on the elderly, very young and poor.

Disruption of settlements, transport and

societies due to flooding; pressures on urban
and rural infrastructure; loss of property.

Water shortagesÉ reduced hydro generation,

potential for population migration.

Disruption by flood and high winds, loss of

insurance, population migration, loss of property.

Costs of coastal protection v. relocation, loss of

insurance, population migration, loss of property
Predicted climate change impacts in ANZ:
from IPCC 4th Report, November, 2007
 CBC

Deep-freeze pizza facility in Germany after storm of Jan. 18

Note that
economic
damage greatly
exceeds insured
coverage.

Source:
IPCC 2000
We have seen some of the impacts of
climate change on the building sector.

But there will also be other issues facing us.

 Possible context during the next century

 Energy prices will probably be high, with most analysts

predicting long-term prices above $60 per barrel for oil
(currently at $90+);
 There may be a scarcity of affordable natural gas in some
areas due to declining production from easily accessible
fields;
 The global production of oil may be close to peak or already
past it;
 This diminution of fossil fuel supplies will have immense
effects, only some of which can be foreseen clearly;
 Certainly, fuel-dependent transportation will become very
expensive, and so will the construction and operation of
buildings;
 Demand
from China,
India,
Brazil and
SE Asia

A global forecast for all oil and gas

IEA has an optimistic scenario for the growth
of renewables and gains in efficiency

Primary energy - global scenario

Future Buildings Forum, IEA

 Resource consumption

 The construction sector is a major user of resources, including

metals, wood, plastics, and the constituent materials for
cement, masonry and ….
 The production process for building materials require large
amounts of energy and water, which feeds back into the central
problem;
 The Club of Rome report was hasty in predicting shortages of
resources, but in principle they were correct and there are clear
signs that the increasing difficulty of extracting smaller amounts
of some resources is now having an impact;
 And then consider the rate of growth in China, India and Brazil.
Growth in the construction sector of China, Brazil and India is
high, and is likely to remain so for many years

Davis & Langdon, World Construction Review 2005

Consumption of a range of industrial materials in Western
Europe and USA is much more than in the rest of the world:
what happens when India and China join the party?
 Wastes

 The construction sector is responsible for 30% to 40% of

municipal wastes;
 Materials taken to the dump means that new materials must be
produced, with associated energy and emissions;
 Throwing things away does not work, because there is no
“away”;
 The goal must be zero waste.
 Reduction of C &D wastes in the Netherlands
Percent Recycling Incineration Landfill

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Important elements:
 Taxes on landfill since 1996
 Ban on landfill; partial since 1997, total since 2001;
 Obligation to sort C & D waste;
 Building materials decree (2001) - all materials certified regarding
leaching, proper use, obligation to take back after use etc.
Info courtesy of Ronald Rovers
 Retrofit to adapt buildings
Issues at and relocation to meet
mid-century climate change conditions

New
construction
Reduced related to inflow
availability and of climate
higher cost of refugees
conventional The
fuels and Construction
materials
Sector
Construction work
required to replace
ageing infrastructure

Demand for higher

Need to address housing
service levels in
and service needs in
developing and
developing countries
developed countries
 Energy efficiency v. demand and service levels

 Energy efficiency in operations is clearly a top priority in view of its

central role in reducing GHGs;
 However, consider the impacts of the following:
 Construction undertaken for new airports and roads, future Olympics and
World Expo events;
 Buildings that are fully air-conditioned in even moderate climates;
 Second and third homes;
 Single family houses that are efficient but have areas of 500 m2 or more;
 The proliferation of types and numbers of household appliances in even
middle-class homes;
 In such cases, energy efficiency is not enough, and we must reduce
the level of demand and expectations of service levels;
 But a reduction in demand or service levels is much harder to
achieve than efficiency improvements, since it requires changes in
values and lifestyles;
 This will be the main issue to address during the next decades.
Amount of space required to transport the same
number of passengers by car, bus or bicycle

Source: poster in City of Muenster planning office, 2001

 Conclusions

 Energy efficiency and Greenhouse gas emissions are core

factors, but more than operating energy is involved;
 Other key issues include water and resource scarcity;
 There are many obstacles to rapid take-up of new ideas in the
building sector;
 Success will require action on a broad front, taking into
account varying regional needs and preferences;
 Great advances in environmental efficiency can be expected,
but it is not so clear that we will see the changes of lifestyles
and values required to reduce the production volume of
buildings and equipment or to reduce service quality
expectations..
 If we are to successfully manage the impacts of climate
change we must act immediately!
 Contacts & Info

 http://www.iisbe.org
 http://www.sbis.info
 Nils Larsson, larsson@iisbe.org