Precipitation

Rain-gauge Network and Rain-gauge Density

 Number of rain-gauges to be erected in a given area is termed as ‘rain-gauge

density’
 For a representative distribution of rainfall over space and time, the no:of
rain guages should be as large as possible

Area Rain-gauge density

Plains 1 in 520 km2

Elevated regions 1 in 260-390 km2

Hilly regions 1 in 130 km2

Adequacy of rainfall stations

• Let ‘m’ raingauge stations are already there in a catchment

• Then the optimal number of stations that should exist to have an assigned
percentage of error in the estimation of mean rainfall is obtained by

N  Cv  
2

•  = % error;
s m-1
• Cv = coefficient of variation = *100
P Rainfall Stations
•
P = mean rainfall
• m-1 = standard deviation.
• It is usual to take  = 10%.
• If  is small N will be large.
Presentation of rainfall data
Mass curve of rainfall
• Plot of the accumulated precipitation against time plotted in chronological

order
• Direct observation
• Duration

• Magnitude

• Onset and cessation of

any storm
• Indirect observation
• Intensity at various
times - Slope of the
curve
Presentation of rainfall data
Hyetograph
• Plot of the intensities of rainfall against the time interval
• Hyetograph is derived from the mass curve and is usually represented as a bar
chart
• On mass curve any two points Hyetograph
can be marked and depth of 250
rainfall between these two points
and time is noted

Intensity in mm per hour

200

- Depth/time = intensity 150

• Area under a hyetograph 100

represents the total precipitation
50
received in the period
Uses 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
• To predict extreme flood Time in minutes

• Infiltration Indices
Presentation of rainfall data
Calculation for Hyetograph

Time (min) Accumulated Increment rainfall Intensity in

rainfall in mm in mm mm/hour
0 0
19 114
10 19
22 132
20 41
7 42
30 48
Presentation of rainfall data
Isohyets of
rainfall
• Lines joining points of

equal rainfall
Estimation of missing data
• Given the annual precipitation P1, P2, P3, …, Pm at neighbouring M stations

• Px at station x is missing P1
P3
Px

P2 P4
Popular Methods:

 Arithmetic average

 Normal ratio method

 Inverse distance approach

 Regression (Linear and higher order)

Estimation of missing data
1. Arithmetic average
P1
P3
Px

P2 P4

Px 
1
P1  P2  P3  ...  Pm 
M
Estimation of missing data
2. Normal Ratio Method
P1
Total M+1 stations N1 P3
Px N3
Nx

P2 P4
N2
N4

• Normal annual precipitation N1, N2, N3, …, Nm and Nx at each M+1 stations are known

• Normal rainfall: Average value of rainfall at a particular date, month or year over a
specified 30 year period
• Normal annual precipitation: Average annual precipitation based on a specified 30
years of record.
Estimation of missing data
• If the normal annual precipitations are within 10% of the normal annual precipitation
Nx at station X, then a simple arithmetic average can be used

P1
Px 
1
P1  P2  P3  ...  Pm  N1 P3
N3
M Px
Nx

P2 P4
N2
N4

• If it vary considerably then normal ratio method be used

Nx  P1 P P P 
Px    2  3  m 
M  N1 N 2 N 3 N m 
Estimation of missing data
3. Inverse Distance Method
P1
P3
Px

1ൗ P2 P4
𝑑𝑖 2
𝑤𝑖 = 𝑀
σ 1ൗ
𝑖=1 2
𝑑𝑖

𝑃𝑋 = ෍ 𝑤𝑖 𝑃𝑖
𝑖=1

𝑑𝑖 is the distance between stations “X” and any station “i"

Estimation of missing data
4. Regression

• Linear correlation between stations

• Y station has some missing data

• Station X is found correlated with Y

𝑌 = 𝑎𝑋 + 𝑐
σ𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥ҧ 𝑦 − 𝑦ത
𝑐=
σ𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥ҧ
2

𝑦ത = 𝑎𝑥ҧ + 𝑐
Estimation of missing data
Annual rainfall depths at two
stations
4. Regression: Example

Omit the missing points and fit a

linear relation between station 1 (X)
and 2 (Y).

Use that equation later, to compute

the missing points, with known
values of X.
Mean precipitation over an area
• Raingauges represent only point sampling of the areal distribution of a storm

• Hydrological analysis requires a knowledge of the rainfall over an area

• To convert the point rainfall values at various stations into an average value
over a catchment
P1
P4
• Three methods
P3
• (a) Arithmetic mean

• (b) Thiessen polygon and

P2 P5
• (c) Isohyetal method.
Mean precipitation over an area
(a) Arithmetic mean
• When the rainfall measured at various stations in a catchment show little
variation
• Average rainfall over the catchment area = Arithmetic mean of the individual
station rainfall values P 1
P4
P3

P2 P5

P  P2  ....  Pn 1 n
P 1
N

N
P
i 1
i
 Mean precipitation over an area
(b) Theissen polygon method
• In this method the rainfall recorded at each station is given a weightage on
the basis of an area closest to the station
P1 A1  P2 A2  ....  Pn An n
A
P   Pi i P1
A1  A2  ....  An i 1 A P4
A4
A1 P3

A3
P2 A5 P5
A2

• Superior to the arithmetic average method as weightage is given to the

various stations on a rational basis.
• Raingauge stations outside the catchment are also used effectively
 Mean precipitation over an area
(b) Theissen polygon method
• Connect the raingauage stations using a triangular network (Green lines)
• Draw perpendicular bisectors for each side of the triangles (Red lines)
• Remove the triangular network (green lines)
• A set of polygons are obtained now
• Area of each polygon
represents the area
P1
contributed by a particular P4
gauge station A4
A1 P3
• A1, A2, A3, … represents
the areas corresponding to
A3
P1, P2, P3,.. stations
P2 A5 P5
A2
P1 A1  P2 A2  ....  Pn An n
A
P   Pi i
A1  A2  ....  An i 1 A
The shape of a catchment (as shown in Fig) is defined by coordinates P (0, -5), Q (-5, 0), R
(0, 5), and S (5, 0). Five raingauges A, B, C, D and E located at (-5, -5), (0, 0), (5, 5), (5, -
5) and (-5√2, 5√2) recorded rainfall depth as 40, 58, 50, 60 and 55 cm respectively.
Estimate the average rainfall in the catchment by the arithmetic mean and Theissen
polygon methods. All distances are in km.
 Mean precipitation over an area
(c) Isohyetal method
• An isohyet is a line joining points of equal rainfall magnitude
• Average value of the rainfall indicated by two isohyets is assumed to be acting over
the inter isohyet area.

a P  P2  2  a 2 P2  P3  2  ....  a n 1 Pn 1  Pn  2 n 1

P 1 1
A
a
i 1
i A

10 mm 15 mm 20 mm 25 mm
• ai = inter isohyet area; and Pi =
30 mm
rainfall value of ith isohyet 10 mm
25 mm
• Superior to the other two methods 22 mm
when stations are large in number

20 mm 30 mm
Test for Homogeneity of regions
 Places where the meteorological conditions remain stable  Storm occurrence over
that region remains the same

 Probability for a storm of same duration and depth to occur is the same throughout the
region.
Test for consistency of record
 If the conditions relevant to the recording of a raingauge station have undergone a
significant change during the period of record, inconsistency would arise in the
rainfall data of that station.

 (a) shifting of a raingauge station to a new location

 (b) the neighbourhood of the station undergoing a marked change

 (c) change in the ecosystem due to calamities such as forest fires, land slides and

 (d) occurrence of observational error from a certain date

 Checking for inconsistency of a record is done by the Double mass curve technique
Double mass curve problem Year Annual
rainfall at
8- station
average
Test the consistency of data of the 19 station X
years of the annual precipitation 1952 30.5 22.8
measured at for the station x. 1953 38.9 35
1954 43.7 30.2
Rainfall data for the station ‘x’ as well as 1955 32.2 27.4
the average annual rainfall measured at a 1956 27.4 25.2
group of eight stations located in the 1957 32 28.2
meteorological homogenous region are 1958 49.3 36.1
given below. 1959 28.4 18.4
1960 24.6 25.1
•In what year change in regime is 1961 21.8 23.6
indicated? 1962 28.2 33.3
1963 17.3 23.4
•Adjust the record data at station x and 1964 22.3 36
determine its mean annual precipitation. 1965 28.4 31.2
1966 24.1 23.1
1967 26.9 23.4
1968 20.6 23.1
1969 29.5 33.2
1970 28.4 26.4
Double mass curve problem
Arrange the series in reverse chronological order ; Take the cumulative sum of both series; Draw a plot of
both series
Year Annual rainfall at annual at x 8- station average cumulative 8-station corrected values
station ‘x’ in cm cumulative in cm in cm in cm

1970 28.4 28.4 26.4 26.4

1969 29.5 57.9 33.2 59.6
1968 20.6 78.5 23.1 82.7
1967 26.9 105.4 23.4 106.1
1966 24.1 129.5 23.1 129.2
1965 28.4 157.9 31.2 160.4
1964 22.3 180.2 36 196.4
1963 17.3 197.5 23.4 219.8
1962 28.2 225.7 33.3 253.1
1961 21.8 247.5 23.6 276.7
1960 24.6 272.1 25.1 301.8
1959 28.4 300.5 18.4 320.2
1958 49.3 349.8 36.1 356.3
1957 32 381.8 28.2 384.5
1956 27.4 409.2 25.2 409.7
1955 32.2 441.4 27.4 437.1
1954 43.7 485.1 30.2 467.3
1953 38.9 524 35 502.3
1952 30.5 554.5 22.8 525.1
 Double mass curve
600
1952
1953
500 1954
1955
1956
accumulated value at X

400 1957
d
1958
c
300 19591
1960
1961

200 1963
1965 1962
1964 c
100
1967
1966
Corrected rainfall value Pxc  Px
1969 d
1970 1968
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Cumulative 8 station mean
Year Annual rainfall at annual at x 8- station average cumulative 8-station corrected values
station ‘x’ in cm cumulative in cm in cm in cm .69 x column (2)
from year 1959
in cm
1970 28.4 28.4 26.4 26.4 28.4
1969 29.5 57.9 33.2 59.6 29.5
1968 20.6 78.5 23.1 82.7 20.6
1967 26.9 105.4 23.4 106.1 26.9
1966 24.1 129.5 23.1 129.2 24.1
1965 28.4 157.9 31.2 160.4 28.4
1964 22.3 180.2 36 196.4 22.3
1963 17.3 197.5 23.4 219.8 17.3
1962 28.2 225.7 33.3 253.1 28.2
1961 21.8 247.5 23.6 276.7 21.8
1960 24.6 272.1 25.1 301.8 24.6
1959 28.4 300.5 18.4 320.2 19.8
1958 49.3 349.8 36.1 356.3 34.4
1957 32 381.8 28.2 384.5 22.3
1956 27.4 409.2 25.2 409.7 19.1
1955 32.2 441.4 27.4 437.1 22.5
1954 43.7 485.1 30.2 467.3 30.5
1953 38.9 524 35 502.3 27.2
1952 30.5 554.5 22.8 525.1 21.3
Maximum Intensity – Duration - Frequency
(IDF) Relationship
• Design of hydraulic
structures

• Return period 
based on the
importance of
structure

• T = Average time
between the
occurrence of events
(defined according to
its magnitude)
Maximum Intensity – Duration - Frequency
(IDF) Relationship

• How to fix the design duration?  Based on time of concentration

Maximum Intensity – Duration - Frequency
(IDF) Relationship

• Return period 
based on the
importance of
structure

• Known duration and

return period 
max. Intensity of
rainfall can be
computed 
Convert to discharge
then
Maximum Intensity – Duration - Frequency
(IDF) Relationship
Maximum Intensity (Im) – Duration (D) Relationship
•Mass curve of rainfall

•Select a convenient duration and divide the mass curve into many segments

•Compute the intensity and select the maximum intensity for that duration

•Repeat for various durations

•Plot the maximum intensity as function of duration

 Intensity
Time Cumulative 10 min 20 min
(mins) Rainfall (mm) duration duration 30 min 40 50 60 70 80 90
0 0
10 2.1 12.6 Intensity decreases as duration increases
20 6.3 25.2 18.9
30 14.5 49.2 37.2 29
40 21.7 43.2 46.2 39.2 32.55
50 27.9 37.2 40.2 43.2 38.7 33.48
60 33 30.6 33.9 37 40.05 37.08 33
70 35.1 12.6 21.6 26.8 30.9 34.56 33 30.09
80 36.2 6.6 9.6 16.6 21.75 26.04 29.9 29.23 27.15
90 37 4.8 5.7 8 13.65 18.36 22.5 26.31 26.175 24.67

Common to express the variation of Im vs D

c
Im =
( D + a)
b

a, b and c are coefficients obtained through regression analysis

Maximum Intensity – Duration - Frequency
(IDF) Relationship
Maximum Intensity (Im) – Duration (D) – Frequency (n) Relationship
•If the rainfall data from a self-recording gauge is available for a long period, the
frequency of occurrence of maximum intensity occurring over a specified
duration can be determined
Steps: Duration
10 20 30 40 ……
1. N number of significant heavy storms
from N years are selected

N Storms
2. Each of these storms are analysed for Maximum Intensity
maximum intensity duration relationship.
This gives N sets of Im vs D over the
years
Maximum Intensity – Duration - Frequency
(IDF) Relationship

4. For a specific duration, a time series

of 1×N is obtained
Duration 5. Compute the probability of
10 20 30 40 ……
exceedance, P of each event
6. Now, recurrence interval or return
period,
N Storms

Maximum Intensity T =1/P

4. Repeat for different durations
Maximum Intensity – Duration - Frequency
(IDF) Relationship
Estimation of Return Period
Probability of occurrence of an event of a random variable whose magnitude is
equal to or in excess of a specified magnitude, P(X ≥ x)

Annual Annual
Example: Year Rainfall Year Rainfall
Estimate the annual maximum rainfall with 1960 130 1971 90
return period of 10 years and 50 years. 1961 84 1972 102
1962 76 1973 108
What would be the probability of an annual 1963 89 1974 60
rainfall of magnitude equal to exceeding 100 1964 112 1975 75
1965 96 1976 120
cm ?
1966 80 1977 160
What is the 75% dependable annual rainfall ? 1967 125 1978 85
1968 143 1979 106
1969 89 1980 83
1970 78 1981 95
 Annual Annual Rainfall in Rank, Probability Return Period
Year Rainfall descending order m = m/N+1 = 1/P (Years)
1960 130 160 1 0.04 23.00
1961 84 143 2 0.09 11.50
1962 76 130 3 0.13 7.67
1963 89 125 4 0.17 5.75
1964 112 120 5 0.22 4.60
1965 96 112 6 0.26 3.83
1966 80 108 7 0.30 3.29
1967 125 106 8 0.35 2.88
1968 143 102 9 0.39 2.56
1969 89 96 10 0.43 2.30
1970 78 95 11 0.48 2.09
1971 90 90 12 0.52 1.92
1972 102 89 13 0.57 1.77
1973 108 89 14 0.61 1.64
Probability
1974 60 using 85 15 0.65 1.53
Weibull75Formula
1975 84 16 0.70 1.44
1976P = m
120/ (N+1) 83 17 0.74 1.35
1977 160 80 18 0.78 1.28
1978 85 78 19 0.83 1.21
1979 106 76 20 0.87 1.15
1980 83 75 21 0.91 1.10
1981 95 60 22 0.96 1.05
 Annual Annual Rainfall in Rank, Probability Return Period
Year Rainfall descending order m = m/N+1 = 1/P (Years)
1960 130 160 1 0.04 23.00
1961 84 143 2 0.09 11.50
1962 76 130 3 0.13 7.67
1963 89 125 4 0.17 5.75
1964 112 120 5 0.22 4.60
Estimate the annual rainfall with return
1965 96 112 6 0.26 3.83
period
1966 of 8010 years and 50108years. 7 0.30 3.29
196710 years
For 125 106 8 0.35 2.88
1968 143 102 9 0.39 2.56
1969 yrs 
11.5 89143 cm 96 10 0.43 2.30
1970 yrs 
7.67 78 130 cm 95 11 0.48 2.09
1971 90 90 12 0.52 1.92
1972 102  10 yrs 89137.9 cm
Interpolating 13 0.57 1.77
197350 years
For 108 89 14 0.61 1.64
1974 60 85 15 0.65 1.53
Extrapolating
1975 75 by the best fit
84 line -  16 0.70 1.44
180
1976cm 120 83 17 0.74 1.35
1977 160 80 18 0.78 1.28
1978 85 78 19 0.83 1.21
1979 106 76 20 0.87 1.15
1980 83 75 21 0.91 1.10
1981 95 60 22 0.96 1.05
 Annual Annual Rainfall in Rank, Probability Return Period
Year Rainfall descending order m = m/N+1 = 1/P (Years)
1960 130 160 1 0.04 23.00
1961 84 143 2 0.09 11.50
1962 76 130 3 0.13 7.67
1963 89 125 4 0.17 5.75
1964 112 120 5 0.22 4.60
1965 96 112 6 0.26 3.83
1966 80 108 7 0.30 3.29
1967 125 106 8 0.35 2.88
1968 143 102 9 0.39 2.56
1969 89 96 10 0.43 2.30
1970 78 95 11 0.48 2.09
1971 90 90 12 0.52 1.92
1972 102 89 13 0.57 1.77
1973 108 89 What would 14 be the probability
0.61 of1.64
an annual
1974 60 85 15 0.65 1.53
rainfall of magnitude equal to exceeding 100
1975 75 84 16 0.70 1.44
1976 120 83 cm ? 17 0.74 1.35
1977 160 80 Probability18of annual 0.78 1.28
rainfall equal or
1978 85 78 19 0.83 1.21
exceeding 100 cm  0.417
1979 106 76 20 0.87 1.15
1980 83 75 21 0.91 1.10
1981 95 60 22 0.96 1.05
 Annual Annual Rainfall in Rank, Probability Return Period
Year Rainfall descending order m = m/N+1 = 1/P (Years)
1960 130 160 1 0.04 23.00
1961 84 143 2 0.09 11.50
1962 76 130 3 0.13 7.67
1963 89 125 4 0.17 5.75
1964 112 120 5 0.22 4.60
1965 96 112 6 0.26 3.83
1966 80 108 7 0.30 3.29
1967 125 106 8 0.35 2.88
1968 143 102 9 0.39 2.56
1969 89 96 10 0.43 2.30
1970 78 95 11 0.48 2.09
What is 90
1971 the 75% dependable
90 annual rainfall
12 ? 0.52 1.92
1972 102 75% dependable
Interpolating 89 13
annual rainfall 0.57 1.77
1973 108 89 14 0.61 1.64
is
1974
82.3 cm
60 85 15 0.65 1.53
1975 75 84 16 0.70 1.44
1976 120 83 17 0.74 1.35
1977 160 80 18 0.78 1.28
1978 85 78 19 0.83 1.21
1979 106 76 20 0.87 1.15
1980 83 75 21 0.91 1.10
1981 95 60 22 0.96 1.05
Maximum Intensity – Duration - Frequency (IDF)
Relationship

Common to express the relationship in a condensed form

KT x
i=
( D + a)
n

i = maximum intensity; T = return period; D = Duration

K, x, a, n are coefficients for the area represented by the station
Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)
• Design of major hydraulic structure  Failure probability as low as
possible; close to zero
• Failure of such structures may cause very heavy damage
• Maximum possible precipitation that can be expected is used for design of
such structures
• Probable maximum precipitation (PMP)

Greatest or extreme rainfall for a given duration that is physically

possible over a station or basin
Or
Rainfall over a basin that would produce a flood with virtually no risk of
being exceeded (Definition of PMP in operational terms)
Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)
• Estimated using (a) Meteorological methods (b) Statistical method
• Statistical method

PMP = P + Ks
P = Mean of annual maximum rainfall series

s = standard deviation of series

K = frequency factor which depends upon the statistical distribution of
series (More about the computation of K in Chapter Statistics in
Hydrologic Analysis)
Value of K is in the neighborhood of 15
Depth – Area – Duration (DAD) Relationships
• Indicates the areal distribution characteristic of a storm of given duration.

• Consider a storm occurring over a region

• As we move away from the center or the eye of a storm the intensity
decreases.
Depth – Area – Duration Relationships
Maximum Depth – Area – Duration Curves
Information on the maximum amount of rainfall of various durations occurring
over various sizes of areas – Needed in many hydrological studies

•Plot a curve which shows area verses maximum average depth

•This will depend on the duration of rainfall

 Relationship between
maximum Depth – Area –
Duration for a region  DAD
curves
20 March Storm,
24-hour Precip at 5:30AM
3-hr Precip, 5:30AM
1-hour Precip at 5:30AM
Depth – Area – Duration Relationships
Maximum Depth – Area – Duration Curves (DAD curves)
•With increase in duration the average depth will increase but with increase in
area the average depth will decrease because the intensity of the storm is
decreasing as we increase the area
•These curves are important because they give us extreme conditions

Information from DAD curves:

How much depth of rainfall will
result under various conditions?
For example if the storm is only 6
hour duration what will be the
maximum depth which we can
expect over a certain area which
the storm is covering?
 Depth
Time Cumulative 10 min 20 min
(mins) Rainfall (mm) duration duration 30 min 40 50 60 70 80 90
0 0
10 2.1 2.1
20 6.3 4.2 6.3
30 14.5 8.2 12.4 14.5
40 21.7 7.2 15.4 19.6 21.7
50 27.9 6.2 13.4 21.6 25.8 27.9
60 33 5.1 11.3 18.5 26.7 30.9 33
70 35.1 2.1 7.2 13.4 20.6 28.8 33 35.1
80 36.2 1.1 3.2 8.3 14.5 21.7 29.9 34.1 36.2
90 37 0.8 1.9 4 9.1 15.3 22.5 30.7 34.9 37
Depth increases as duration increases
Depth vs duration  Mass curve
Information about area can be added if
isohyetal maps are available (Not
demonstrated here)
Combine both information  DAD
curves
DAD Relation:

For a rainfall of given duration, the average depth decreases with the
area in an exponential fashion given by:
Depth – Area – Duration Relationships

Dhar & Bhattacharya (1975) – On the basis of 42 severe storms across North
India

Duration K n
1 day 0.0008526 0.6614
2 day 0.0009877 0.6306
3 day 0.001745 0.5961

Useful in extrapolating an existing storm data over an area