Lecture 8

Manpower Analysis and Planning

Last week
 Artificial Intelligence (AI)
 Expert Systems (ES)
 Expertise, experts and transferring expertise
 Some knowledge elicitation techniques
 Knowledge representation
 Use of ES, examples
 Structure of ES
 Benefits

 Limitations

 Contrast with DSS

 Practical example of management support

◦ manpower planning
 Objectives of manpower planning
◦ the right numbers of employees
◦ with the right level of talent and skills
◦ in the right jobs at the right time
◦ performing the right activities
◦ to achieve the right objectives
◦ to fulfil the corporate purpose
Lynch (1982)
 Assisting the manager in decisions
recruitment
avoidance of redundancies
training - categories and numbers
management
estimates of labour costs
productivity bargaining
accommodation requirements
Graham, 1980
 Bramham’s four phases
◦ investigation
 building up an awareness
◦ forecasting
 making predictions of the future
◦ planning
 agreeing policies to meet the future
◦ utilising
 measuring the success of the policies
Bramham (1988)
 Edwards' three elements
◦ predicting the future demand for manpower
◦ predicting the future supply of manpower
◦ looking at the policies to reconcile any difference between
the above, known as “closing the manpower gap”

Edwards (1983)
Manpower Planning

 Developing a manpower plan

◦ determination of what is relevant to the decision required
◦ collection and collation of data for those who must decide
◦ allocation of decision-taking roles, on the basis of
competence to interpret the data
◦ development of the criteria to be employed in making
judgements about the data
◦ taking decisions about manpower
◦ controlled implementation of decisions, employing feedback

Thomason (1981)
IES Graduate Value Chain

Employer Demand

Why does the business need graduates?

What will they actually do?
Where in the business will they enter, be
deployed and managed?
And for how long?
Which skills and capabilities are really needed?

Institute of Employment Studies

IES Graduate Value Chain

Graduate Supply

What is the shape of the current graduate pool?

What will it look like in the future?
What career offer are they seeking?
Can graduate intakes help increase workforce
diversity?

Institute of Employment Studies

IES Graduate Value Chain

Attraction and Selection

How, where and when to pitch the career

and development offer?
What role and impact does ‘brand’ have in
being an employer of choice?
Are you getting enough of right sort of
graduates?

Institute of Employment Studies

IES Graduate Value Chain

Managing expectations and

retention

How can talent be spotted, developed and

managed?
Are graduates satisfied with their experiences
and with the way early career promises are
met?

Institute of Employment Studies

IES Graduate Value Chain

Institute of Employment Studies

IES Graduate Value Chain

IES graduate value chain — employer model

Source: IES, 2002

from: http://www.employment-studies.co.uk/pubs/summary.php?id=401
 capability in line with short-term and longer-term business needs

 cost-effective recruitment

 appropriate retention

 positive impact on wider employer brand

 positive recruitment and employment experience

 positive impact on future employment prospects

Institute of Employment Studies

Definition of terms (1)
stocks
staff numbers in currently post
details of grade, age, seniority, length of service,
marital status, gender, etc
wastage
staff expected to leave during the time period
leaving to take another job, retirement, death
Manpower Planning

 Definition of terms (2)

 promotions
staff transferring to a higher grade
 recruitment
predictions of new staff joining the organisation
 renewal flow
input to a grade to fill available vacancies
 push flow
input to a grade whether there are vacancies or not
Manpower Planning

 Collecting data
◦ current data can provide data on stocks
◦ past data can be analysed to extract patterns
 wastage
 promotion
 recruitment
◦ new policies can be tested
 wastage - changing retirement age
 promotion - changing seniority requirements
 recruitment - changing entry requirements
 growth/contraction - changing organisation size
 Manpower planning models
supply and demand
descriptive and normative
steady state, static or stationary and projection
deterministic and stochastic
renewal and Markov
 Supply and demand forecasting
are closely linked

 Demand needs to be estimated before we can

estimate whether it will be met by supply
 Supply forecasting

◦ concerned with the availability of people and their

behaviour in the manpower system

◦ personnel managers should have this information readily

available
 employee database
 Demand forecasting
◦ has close links with policy making at a level where the
personnel manager may not be involved in the early
stages

◦ a policy decision to close a particular section within the

organisation has staffing implications
 details may not be passed to personnel until the decision has
been taken
 personnel has to implement these plans
 Descriptive models

◦ use information about the present system and illustrate

possible consequences of implementing different policies
◦ an “exploratory” model
◦ provides support for an informed choice between different
policy options
Descriptive and Normative

 Normative models
◦ work “backwards” starting from the target state and
prescribing policies necessary to reach this

◦ may suggest unacceptable policies

 industrial relations
 employment legislation
Steady State, Static or Stationary
and Projection
 Steady State, Static or Stationary
shows the manpower system in a stable state
in an environment of no growth
or continued consistent growth
relative grade sizes are maintained
promotion and recruitment follow stable patterns from
year to year
not steady state in the sense that nothing is happening,
but the pattern is stationary
Steady State, Static or Stationary
and Projection
 Projection
 shows the manpower system responding to
promotion/recruitment/retention policies
 may show changes from a steady state
 may not reach a steady state
Deterministic and Stochastic

 Deterministic
aggregates data
uses standard percentage rates for
recruitment
promotion
wastage
each prediction will be the same for the same set of
data and policies
no random variability
can be useful for large cohorts
Deterministic and Stochastic

 Stochastic
 includes a random element
each staff member has a chance of leaving or
being promoted according to parameters
multiple simulations (replications) are made
each replication will be slightly different with the
same set of data and policies
mean values and standard deviation calculated to
indicate variation between replications
more useful for small manpower systems
 Renewal and Markov

 Renewal
◦ vacancies created by wastage and/or expansion to enable
promotions and recruitment
 Markov
◦ forces flows through the system regardless of vacancies and
grade sizes (“push” flow)

Neither is a completely accurate model, but

maintaining grade sizes is often required
Manpower Planning MSS

 Thetype of model most likely to be of benefit to

a personnel manager will be:
supply
descriptive
projection
stochastic (or possibly deterministic)
renewal (possibly with Markov elements)
 Age Profiles

 Age profiles are used to examine the characteristics of

◦ current stocks
◦ predicted stocks

 Age profiles enable the likely effects of

promotion/recruitment/retirement policies to be tested

 Problems can be identified and alternative policies tested

Age Profile Diagrams

Age Profile 1  Large numbers due to

retire and need
100
replacing
80
 Heavy recruitment
Number

60
could be required
40
 Not be enough staff
20
ready for promotion
0

20 30 40 50 60
Age
Age Profile Diagrams

Age Profile 2  Mostly middle-aged

workforce
60
50
 Dissatisfaction with
40 promotion prospects
Number

30  Might develop into

20 replication of previous
10
age profile
0
20

30

40

50

60

Age
Age Profile Diagrams

Age Profile 3  Over-reaction to age

profile 1 could create
60
further problems
50
 promotion blockages
40
Number

30  staff shortfall

20  fluctuating recruitment
10  recurring problems
0
20

30

40

50

60

Age
 Grade Structure Diagrams

 Grade structure diagrams allow the manpower

system to be modelled
◦ detailed model prepared identifying all grades and flows
◦ simplified model prepared streamlining system
◦ final model prepared for simulation

 Excessive detail in the model

◦ can give a false impression of accuracy
◦ be too complicated to be effective
Grade structure PS

diagrams DS

Full grade structure

US

AS

SP

SEO

HEO(A) HEO

AT EO

CO

Key:

wastage flow (leavers)

CA
recruitment flow
promotion flow
Grade structure diagrams
PS

Simplified grade structure DS

US

AS

SP

SEO

HEO

Key:

wastage flow (leavers)

recruitment flow
promotion flow
Grade structure diagrams
OS

Further simplified
grade structure
AS

SEO

HEO

Key:

wastage flow (leavers)

recruitment flow
promotion flow
Manpower Planning Systems

 Manpower planning model requirements

◦ database
 source of data for simulation model
◦ parameters – values given to the system
 time period for simulation - not too far in the future
 grade structure for manpower system
 flows
 wastage
 promotion
 recruitment
 type and balance between flows
 growth/contraction
 standard or changing rates
 Sample database

 Stocks
Grade Gender Age Location Seniority
1 M 59 L 2
1 M 58 L 7
1
1
M
M
58
57
L
L
6
4 extracted from
1
1
F
M
56
56
L
L
5
2 database
1 M 55 L 8
1
1
M
F
55
55
L
L
4
2
showing values for
grade
1 M 55 L 3
1 M 55 L 1
: : : :
2
2
M
M
59
59
L
L
12
4
gender
2
2
M
M
58
58
L
D
2
8
age
2
2
M
M
58
58
L
D
9
11 location
2 F 56 L 10
: : : : seniority
3 M 55 D 15
3 F 55 L 12
3 M 55 L 8
3 M 55 L 7
3 F 54 L 6
3 M 54 L 3
Count of Location Grade
Age 1 2 3 Grand Total
20 1 1
21 1 1
22 2 2
23 1 1
24 1 1
25 1 1
26 2 2
27 2 2
28 1 1
29 3 3
30
31
15
5
15
5  Sample of stocks
32 10 10
33 6 6
34 9 9  presented in form of pivot table
35 6 6
36 1 7 8

different variables can be chosen

37 1 3 4
38 1 2 3 
39 2 5 7
40 1 2 3
41
42
1
2
2
2
3
4  can be displayed in graphic form
43 1 2 3
44 1 2 3
45 1 2 2 5
46 1 1 2 4
47 1 2 3 6
48 1 2 3 6
50 2 4 10 16
51 1 2 6 9
52 2 4 6 12
53 2 4 8 14
54 2 4 5 11
55 6 5 7 18
56 3 3 4 10
57 3 3 5 11
58 3 5 4 12
59 1 4 4 9
Grand Total 29 56 162 247
 Chart from pivot table
Age Profile by Grade

20
15
Number

10
5
0

20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 51 54 57
Age

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3

 Sample of stocks
 showing age profile for each grade
 can show current age profile for each grade
 can illustrate effect on age profile of different policies
 Chart from pivot table
Age Profile: Total Stocks

20

15
Number

10

20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 51 54 57
Age

Grand Total

 Sample of stocks
 showing age profile
 can show current age profile
 can illustrate effect on age profile of different policies
Manpower Planning Systems

 Manpower simulation models

management support system
decision support system
allow testing of different policies
enable evaluation of impact of policies
management still needs to make the final decision
Further Reading
 Bramham J (1988) Practical Manpower Planning, IPM, 4th edition
 Edwards JS (1983) “A Survey of Manpower Planning Models and their
Application” Journal of the Operational Research Society, November 1983
 Graham HT (1980) Human Resources Management, Macdonald & Evans
(later edition 1992 with Bennett, R)
 Lynch (1982) Making Manpower More Effective, Pan)
 Thomason G (1981) A Textbook of Personnel Management, IPM, 4th
edition
 http://www.manpowerplanning.co.uk/workforce_planning.html
(accessed 11 November 2010)
 http://www.employment-studies.co.uk/pubs/summary.php?id=401
(accessed 11 November 2010)
 http://www.managementstudyguide.com/manpower-planning.htm
(accessed 11 November 2010)
 http://www.wbbinc.com/manpower-estimate.html#
(accessed 11 November 2010)