Uday Damodaran

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Cricket, and India: A Lasting Relationship!

Who are these gentlemen?

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Indian Cricketing History..

India’s first test match: June 25-28 1932 at Lord’s; watched by

a crowd of 24000
With stars like CK Nayudu, Amar Singh, Mohammad Nissar
It was test #219

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And some more….

Cricketing Trivia Questions

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Cricketing Trivia…

Which batsman has had the longest, unbroken run of test

match appearances starting from the debut test match?
No one has yet managed a run of 100 consecutive Tests from
debut. The nearest was 96, by Adam Gilchrist, which
constituted his entire Test career, between 1999-2000 and
2007-08. Rahul Dravid played 94 successive matches from his
debut at Lord's in 1996 to the second Test against Sri Lanka in
Delhi in December 2005, but missed the next Test after being
hospitalised with gastro-enteritis. (That run included 93 for
India, and also the Super Series Test for the World XI v
Australia in October 2005.) Kapil Dev missed only one match
during his 131-Test career - after playing 66 straight from his
debut, he was controversially dropped for India's third Test
against England in Kolkata in 1984-85. He returned for the
next match, and embarked on another run of 65 successive
appearances!!

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Cricketing Trivia

Which cricketer has scored most runs in his ODI career

without scoring a hundred?
Misbah-ul-Haq: 4384 at an average of 45.19 without
scoring a hundred!

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Cricketing Trivia…

Who is the batsman who has the maximum unbroken run of

test innings without being dismissed for a duck?

David Gower: He batted 119 innings without a duck. This was

from August 1982 to December 1990. Sachin Tendulkar is 3rd
with 91 (July 2008 till his retirement).

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Cricketing Trivia

In the case of some cricketers, EVERY TEST match in which

they played have been won by their country. Name the player
for who has played the maximum number of matches when
his country has won ALL matches.

Eldine Baptiste, who played alongside Marshall, Garner,

Roberts, Croft and Holding in the 1980s and played when one
or more of them was injured. He played just 10 tests over 7
years – and West Indies won all of them. His debut was
against India at Kanpur – a match West Indies won by an
innings and 83 runs.

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Cricketing Trivia

Which player has been dismissed for the maximum number of

“ducks” (or zero) in ODIs?

Sanath Jayasuriya (34 from 415 innings where he was

dismissed), followed by Shahid Afridi (29 from 322 innings
where he was dismissed). Interestingly, Shahid Afridi has
scored the highest number of sixes in ODIS (323 from 345
innings), followed by Sanath Jayasuriya (270 from 433
innings)

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Cricketing Trivia

Who has scored the fastest 50 in ODIs for India (measured in

the least number of deliveries taken to reach 50)?

Ajit Agarkar – 21 deliveries versus Zimbabwe at Rajkot. There

are 4 Indian batsmen who scored it in 22 deliveries (Kapil Dev,
Yuvraj Singh, Virender Sehwag and surprise, surprise, Rahul
Dravid!

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Cricketing Trivia

Dilruwan Perera was actually the 29th batsman to reach 90 on

his Test debut but not make it to three figures. The first was
Stanley Jackson, a future England captain, who made 91 on
debut against Australia at Lord's in 1893. Three of those
players - Australia's Arthur Chipperfield, Robert Christiani of
West Indies, and Pakistan's Asim Kamal - were out for 99 in
their first Test (Asim never did make a Test century). Stephen
Fleming scored 92 on his Test debut for New Zealand, against
India in Hamilton in March 1994, and 90 on his one-day
international debut in Napier a few days later. Only two others
have been out in the nineties on ODI debut - Phil Jaques of
Australia, and Eoin Morgan (playing for Ireland at the time),
who was actually run out for 99.

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And more trivia, answers provided!

ODI: Most hundreds in a match 4 (Pakistan-Australia 1998 ODI

#1371), India-Australia 2013 ODI #3424)
Most batsmen caught in a match 19 India New Zealand
Guwahati 2010 ODI #3070
Most matches on a single ground Sharjah 215, Next Sydney
143, Eden Gardens with 27 comes in at rank 36!!

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The Questions Till Now…

What do you notice about the questions till now?

Interesting, maybe, but from the viewpoint of Axiom, stupidly
simple!
The most rudimentary ‘mathematics’…..
…..Counting!

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But now, tell me this…

Don Bradman was out for a duck in his last test innings and
ended with 6,996 runs from 70 completed innings for a batting
average of 99.94. Among those who have scored at least 1,000
test runs, who is the next best batsmen in terms of batting
average?

Cheteshwar Pujara. He has scored 1,590 runs at an average of

66.25. Graeme Pollock, George Headley (aka Black Bradman)
and Herbert Sutcliffe complete the Top 5. These are the only 5
with batting averages in excess of 60. Barry Richards has an
average of 71 – but he has scored less than 1,000 test runs.

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But now, tell me this…or this…

Among those who have scored at least 1,000 runs in ODIs,

who has the highest strike rate (defined as Runs Scored
divided by Deliveries faced).

Shahid Afridi (7,516 runs @ 115.11 per 100 deliveries).

Virender Sehwag is next with 8,273 runs @ 104.33. Number 3
is interesting – Darren Sammy (1,461 runs @ 101.31). Glen
Maxwell has a strike rate of 124.20 – but has scored 621 runs
so far.

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But now, tell me this…or this…

Who has the best bowling economy rate in ODIs (defined as

number of runs conceded per over) among bowlers who have
bowled a minimum of 1,000 deliveries?

Joel Garner (146 wickets @ 18.84 apiece and an economy rate

of 3.09 per over). That the game has changed completely is
evident by the fact that no contemporary bowler has an
economy rate which is less than 4 runs per over.

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This Set Of Questions…

What do you notice about this second set of questions?

Interesting, maybe, and from the viewpoint of Axiom, less
stupid!
Slightly more than rudimentary ‘mathematics’, slightly more
than counting…
….arithmetic operation of division!

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And now…

The question: which bowler has had the “most” success

against Brian Lara (defined as maximum number of times
dismissed and the number of runs conceded divided by
number of times dismissed has been much lower than the
normal batting average of the batsman)

Andre Nel of South Africa has dismissed Brian Lara 8 times

and conceded just 185 runs against him, or an average of
23.13 (Lara’s overall batting average is 52.88). Andre Nel’s
career bowling average is 31.86.

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And now…

The question: which bowler has had the “most” success

against Brian Lara (defined as maximum number of times
dismissed and the number of runs conceded divided by
number of times dismissed has been much lower than the
normal batting average of the batsman)
And, similarly against Sachin Tendulkar?
James Anderson of England has dismissed Sachin Tendulkar
9 times and conceded just 208 runs against him, or an
average of 23.11 (Tendulkar’s overall batting average is 53.78).
James Anderson’s career bowling average is 30.67.

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This Third Set Of Questions…

What do you notice about this third set of questions?

Interesting, maybe, and from the viewpoint of Axiom, OK?
Slightly more than rudimentary ‘mathematics’, slightly more
than counting…more than mere ….arithmetic operation of
division……
…relationships; connecting two entities

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And now tell me this….

Who is the best test/ ODI/ T20 batsman?

We need functions,
Who is the best bowler? utility functions
The best team?
Who is the most valuable player?
How do you characterize the batting styles of Sehwag, Dhoni,
Tendulkar, Gambhir?
How do you characterize the bowling styles of Wasim Akram,
We need
models
Zaheer Khan, Ishant Sharma?
How do you set the target for the team batting second when
the game has to be shortened due to rain?
Can a model to predict wins/losses and scores be developed?

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World Cup Football, 2006: Group E

P W D L POINTS
Italy 2 1 1 0 4
USA 2 0 1 1 1
Ghana 2 1 0 1 3
Czechoslovakia 2 1 0 1 3

U(Italy) = ∑N(i) * U(i)

= 1 * U(W) + 1* U(D) + 0* U(L)
= (1*3) + (1*1) + (0*0)
=4
Alternatively, E(U) = ∑Pr(i) * U(i)
= .5*3 + .5*1 = 2

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2. Stochastic Dominance and Analysis of ODI Batting

3. ODI Cricket Batting: Characterizing Batsmen
Performance Presented at the Eighth International
Performance Using “Tipping Points” Presented at the
Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Sports,
Fourth International Conference on Mathematics in
Queensland, Australia, July, 3-5, 2006
Sports, Leuven, Belgium, June 5-7, 2013

1. The Second Dimension: Developing Criteria to Evaluate

Consistency of Batting Performance in ODI Cricket Presented at
the First International Conference on Mathematics in Sports,
Manchester, UK, June 24-26, 2007

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Acknowledgments, Gratitude & Thanks

Srinivas Bhogle: he doesn’t know me, but I have drawn

heavily from his talk “Cricket Analytics” at the Chennai
Mathematical Institute
http://bademian.wordpress.com/2013/06/19/cricket-analytics/
My friend Prof. S. Govindrajan Dean, Praxis Business School,
Kolkata: A Walking Encyclopedia on various subjects, Cricket
being one of them
My Students, various batches: Ankur Surolia, Atishay Jain,
Manoj Kamath

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The Motivation

1. Paucity of metrics to characterize performance: Cricket, a

game that naturally generates statistics (recorded by a
‘statistician’- the only game to have one) with every event
(ball), ironically has a paucity of metrics to describe player
performance

Compared, to say, baseball that has Sabermetrics:

‘specialized analysis of baseball through objective
evidence’
VORP (Value Over Replacement Player)
Moneyball

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The Motivation

And, specifically: Navjot Singh Siddhu:

“The way Indian wickets are falling reminds me of the
cycle stand at Rajendra Talkies in Patiala …… one falls
and everything else falls”

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Correlation Structures

Player B

Player A

Player C

Player E
Player D

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Research in Cricket

Mathematics, Statistics and Cricket

Optimal Strategies Interruption and

Performance Statistics
Clarke (1988), Fair Result
Clarke and Wood (1945),
Norman (1999), Duckworth and Kimber and
Preston and Lewis (1998), Hansford (1993),
Thomas (2000), Preston and Lemmer (2004),
Swartz et al Thomas (2002), Lewis (2005)
(2006), Carter and
Rajadhyaksha Guthrie (2004)
and Arapostathis Under-
(2000) represented
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‘Not Out’ Scores in Cricket…

0 0 36 10 20 19 31 36 53 30 4 53 52* 22 11*
Right Censored Data: A special case of missing data (value of
the measurement variable is not unknown, but only partially
known)
How do we deal with it in cricket? How should we deal with it
in cricket?

Survivability Analysis/
Reliability Analysis !!!!

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‘Not Out’ Scores in Cricket…

0 0 36 10 20 19 31 36 53 30 4 53 52* 22 11*
How do we deal with it in cricket? How should we deal with it
in cricket?

The batting average in cricket is computed as the ratio of the

total number of runs scored over all innings divided by the
number of innings in which the batsman remains ‘not out’.

In our case, = 377/13 = 29

Therefore is an upward bias introduced? Statistically,
what would be a ‘good’ estimator of the real average?

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Versus Proposed “Bayesian” Approach

Assume that in his j th innings player i remains ‘not out’ on a

score of Rij. Define a binary variable Grik such that:
Grik = 0 if Rik< Rij and = 1 if Rik>= Rij for k = 1, 2,….j-1

Define nij = Σ Grik

Define Cik = 0 if Rik< Rij and = Rik if Rik>=Rij for k = 1, 2,….j-1

The estimate of the number of runs that the ‘not-out’ batsman

would have gone on to score is then given by:
Eij = Σ Cik/ nij

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Example: Tendulkar’s First 15 Innings

Sl. No. Runs Dismissed? Adj. Score Remarks

1 0 Y 0
2 0 Y 0
3 36 Y 36
4 10 Y 10
5 20 Y 20
6 19 Y 19
7 31 Y 31
8 36 Y 36 Giving
9 53 Y 53 402/15 =
26.8
10 30 Y 30
11 4 Y 4
12 53 Y 53
13 52 N 53 Average of Sl Nos. 9,12
14 22 Y 22
15 11 N 35 Average of Sl Nos.
3,5,6,7,8,9,10,12, 13 (adjusted),
14

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Sachin’s Debut

18 December 1989, versus Pakistan, at Gujranwala, ODI # 593

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2007 Paper, Manchester

For each player, raw data treated by replacing ‘Not out’ scores
by Bayesian estimates
The treated data used to compute first (mean) and second
(standard deviation) moments for each player.

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2007 Paper, Manchester

‘Consistency Score’ for each player defined as:

= Mean Score / Standard Deviation of Scores
Or in other words, the ‘signal-to-noise ratio’; the inverse of the
Coefficient of Variation
The results then represented on a two-dimensional plane with
mean score on the X-axis and consistency score on the Y-axis
Results

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Results

1.4

1.3

1.2 Tendulkar
Kumble
1.1 Ganguly
Consistency Score

Dravid
1
Agarkar
Laxman
0.9
Harbhajan
0.8 Sehw ag
Zaheer
0.7 Yuvraj

0.6

0.5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Average

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Next What?

Having Introduced a Second Dimension Characteristic to

Describe Batting Performance, next what?

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2006 Paper, Queensland: Stochastic Dominance

According to first-order stochastic dominance rules a

portfolio A is preferred to another portfolio B if, for any level
of return, the cumulative probability of portfolio A giving a
return lesser than the given level of return is never greater,
and sometimes less, than the cumulative probability of
portfolio B giving a return lesser than that given level of
return.

This rule is consistent with the assumption that in the

investors’ utility function more wealth is preferred to less.

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2006 Paper, Queensland: Stochastic Dominance

According to first-order stochastic dominance rules a

portfolio A is preferred to another portfolio B if, for any level
of return, the cumulative probability of portfolio A giving a
return lesser than the given level of return is never greater,
and sometimes less, than the cumulative probability of
portfolio B giving a return lesser than that given level of
return.

And in cricket?

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2006 Paper, Queensland: Stochastic Dominance

Batsman A’s performance dominates batsman B’s if, for any

level of score, the probability of batsman A getting a score
greater than the given score is never lesser, and sometimes
greater, than the probability of batsman B getting a score
greater than that given score.

This rule corresponds to the first-order stochastic dominance

rules and assumes that more runs are always preferred to
less.

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2006 Paper, Queensland: Method

‘Not out’ scores replaced by Bayesian estimates

Frequency distribution of runs scored created for each
batsman
For each batsman, for every level of score, probability of
achieving that score computed using all innings played till
then
Cumulative probabilities of scoring lesser than a given score
computed
‘1-Cumulative Probability’ computed to reflect cumulative
probabilities of scoring greater than a given score
Charts of various batsmen prepared with runs on the X-axis
(with the origin as zero) and the probability of scoring more
runs than the X-axis value of the score on the Y-axis.

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Results-Sample 1

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Results- Sample 2

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Results- Sample 3

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And finally…..

Onto the 2013 paper…

..Following from the stochastic dominance work, question
was: does a batsman tire as he bats longer? Or, during the
initial stages of his innings, does a batsman become more
confident as he bats longer? Or (intuitively I found this a neat
idea) does a batsman’s probability of getting out remain the
same at every stage of his innings?

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Batting in Cricket: A Representation

0 2 3 7 7 7 13 13 SCORE

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
OUT! OUT! OUT! OUT! OUT! OUT! OUT! OUT!

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Analytical Representation

Instinctively, we think of borrowing concepts from reliability

engineering, survivability analysis, actuarial sciences
We can define a hazard function H(x) [0,1] as:

P (X = x|X ≥ x) = P (X = x, X ≥ x)
P (X ≥ x)

Modeling this process would entail parameterisations of the

Hazard Function H(x; θ)

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Analytical Representation

One simple possibility is to set H(x) to be equal to ‘h’ a

constant value
Under this constant hazard rate assumption the
distribution becomes a geometric distribution with
expectation µ = (1/h) - 1

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Geometric Distribution

Memory-less property: In the context of cricket, focusing on a

batsman’s performance in terms of runs scored, this would
imply that a particular batsman’s probability of getting out on
a particular score ‘n’ is constant and independent of the value
of ‘n’ itself

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Geometric Distribution: Competing Models

For example, a bathtub hazard model

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Current Paper

Since our focus is on better description of player performance

rather than predictive modeling…

We will, with a certain degree of audacity, assume that

individual cricket scores do indeed follow the constant hazard
rate geometrical distribution

This audacious assumption provides us with a purely

theoretical benchmark the departure from which can be used
to arrive at ‘signature’ descriptions of batsmen.

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Method Illustration

Consider a particular batsman, Sachin Tendulkar. His career

average over 451 ODIs (!!!!) (1989-2012) is 40.067.

Of these 451 ODIs, Sachin was out for zero runs (a ‘duck’ in
cricket parlance) 20 times. Under the memory-less property
assumption, his conditional average (average conditional on
the fact that he has scored 1 run; i.e. average over all the
innings ignoring the 20 innings in which he scored a zero)
should be 40.067 + 1; call this E1 or in general Ex
Similarly, Sachin was out on a score of 1 run 20 times. Under
the memory-less property assumption, his conditional
average (average conditional on the fact that he has scored 2
runs; i.e. average over all the innings ignoring the 40 innings
in which he scored a zero or 1) should be 40.067 + 2; call this
E2 or in general Ex

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Example, Sachin Tendulkar, up to 20 runs

score Ox Ex δx
0 40.067 40.067
1 41.926 41.067 0.859
2 43.917 42.067 1.850
3 45.949 43.067 2.882
4 47.189 44.067 3.122
5 48.959 45.067 3.892
6 49.816 46.067 3.749
7 50.943 47.067 3.876
8 52.235 48.067 4.168
9 53.714 49.067 4.647
10 54.265 50.067 4.198
11 55.382 51.067 4.315
12 56.679 52.067 4.612
13 57.718 53.067 4.651
14 58.473 54.067 4.406
15 59.550 55.067 4.483
16 60.819 56.067 4.752
17 61.796 57.067 4.729
18 62.966 58.067 4.899
19 64.172 59.067 5.105
20 65.235 60.067 5.168
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Method Illustration

Taking the score x on the X axis and δx on the Y axis would

help us identify possible signature “tipping points” for the
batsman

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Results: Sachin Tendulkar

10.000

0.000

103

157
1
7

109
115
121
127
133
139
145
151

163
169
175
181
187
193
199
13
19
25
31
37
43
49
55
61
67
73
79
85
91
97
-10.000

-20.000

-30.000

-40.000

-50.000

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Results, Sachin Tendulkar

Tendulkar’s signature pattern is distinctive. His most

frequently occurring score (mode) is zero; a duck. However,
once he starts scoring, Tendulkar’s confidence grows as
reflected in the series of positive deltas. In fact his deltas are
positive right up to the score of fifty-eight; in other words he
does better than the theoretical benchmark provided by the
geometric distribution right up to the score of fifty-eight.

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Results: Yuvraj Singh

5.000

0.000 1
5
9

101
105
109
113
117
121
125
129
133
137
61
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57

65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
-5.000

-10.000

-15.000

-20.000

-25.000

-30.000

-35.000

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Yuvraj Singh

Singh’s signature looks similar to that of Tendulkar’s, but with

a tipping points lower than Tendulkar’s, at 43

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Results: Virendra Sehwag

0.000

105

141
1
5
9

101

109
113
117
121
125
129
133
137

145
149
25

61
13
17
21

29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57

65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
-5.000

-10.000

-15.000

-20.000

-25.000

-30.000

-35.000

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Results, Virendra Sehwag

Sehwag, known for his hard hitting swashbuckling style has a

signature that differs significantly from Tendulkar’s and
Singh’s: while Tendulkar and Singh seem to draw comfort
from runs scored, Sehwag does not seem to become
psychologically stronger as he scores runs in the initial phase
of his innings (or does not seem to need runs to be scored to
improve his psychological strength; he does not seem
nervous to start with); his graphs of deltas never crosses over
to the positive territory.

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Re-Analyzing the Process

While the focus of most work in cricket is on the runs scored,

intuitively the batsman is first surviving the balls bowled to
him and only then scoring runs
So, we tried doing a similar exercise, now focusing on the
hazard function in terms of balls faced and not runs scored
and then examined departures from the theoretical
benchmark geometric distribution
And, what do we find?

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Results; Tendulkar, Balls Faced

141
101
105
109
113
117
121
125
129
133
137

145
149
9
1
5

53

97
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49

57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40

-45

-50

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Results, Tendulkar

An effect similar to the confidence boosting effect of scoring

runs is not present in the case of balls faced. In other words,
just by successfully facing some balls without getting out,
batsmen do not get a boost in terms of increased probabilities
of facing more balls successfully. What seems to be more
important for a batsman’s confidence is to score runs rather
than to occupy the crease. This is consistent with the oft
repeated remarks by commentators of the importance of
getting ‘runs on the board’. And after all, the game is won not
in terms of balls faced, but in terms of runs scored.
Similar, for other players too

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Too much..

Of a ‘selfie’ till now….

What else?

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Player Ratings

Srinivas Bhogle and Purnendu Maji:

The most valuable player index (MVPI) is calculated by adding
together a player's batting, bowling and fielding index.
The batting index is based on a combination of runs scored
and strike rate; the bowling index uses a combination of the
number of wickets taken and the economy rate; and the
fielding index is based on the number of catches taken and
the fielder's participation in run-out dismissals.
Each of these three indices is expressed as a 'run equivalent'.
So Tillakaratne Dilshan's all-round performance is equivalent
to a pure batsman scoring 471 runs.

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MVPI

“The MVPI adds or subtracts runs to make it conform to a par

If the par score in an ODI is considered to be 250, then we expect every batsman
to score 5 runs in an over, and every bowler to concede 5 runs per over. We also
assume that every wicket a bowler gets is worth 25 ‘runs’. So if Sehwag scores
50 in 30 balls, when he was expected to score only 25, we give him a bonus of
50 – 25 = 25 and argue that his 50 is equivalent to 75. Likewise if Kumble has
figures of 10-3-17-4, his 4 wickets are worth 25 * 4 = 100 runs; also he conceded
only 17 runs when he was expected to concede 50 … so we give him a bonus of
50 – 17 = 33 ‘runs’ and his overall performance is worth 100 + 33 = 133 ‘runs’.”
Reproduced from Srinivas Bhogle’s blog

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MVPI

Axiomians of NITR !
Convinced?
Can we extend the logic to defining ‘form’ of a player, for
example?

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Impact Index

Developed by Jaideep Varma

http://www.impactindexcricket.com/
“This is a relative index in which every performance is evaluated using a 5-point
scale. II doesn’t really care how many runs a batsman scored, or how many
wickets a bowler took; it asks how much better a batsman or bowler scored
relative to other players and therefore how impactful this performance was in
the context of the match.”
Reproduced from Srinivas Bhogle’s blog

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Rating Teams?

Whether in cricket or soccer or whatever?

Performance
Strength of Opposition and
Home Advantage!

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And now…

Analyzing something very unique to cricket….

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Game Interrupts…

Or ‘rain rules’!
ODIs changed cricket, demanding results even if the game is
interrupted by rain!
How do you handle it?

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The Richie Benaud Rule…

Pre- 1991-92 World Cup

India 300/2 in 50 overs, Pakistan 151/9 in 25 overs
Pakistan wins!
Question: Is that fair?
And therefore, the search for ‘fair rules’

Consider the most productive overs of the first team in order

to set the target for the chasing team
Therefore, in the above case?
Pakistan must score what India scored in their 25 most
productive overs out of 50.
Now is that fair?
**Srinivas Bhogle’s blog, Duckworth-Lewis article

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Richie Benaud Rule

From Srinivas Bhogle’s blog and Duckworth-Lewis article

England-South Africa semi-final in 2002. Batting first,
England batted for 45 overs. When South Africa were
chasing, they needed 22 to win in 13 balls when there was
a rain interruption.
Two overs were deemed to be lost. So the two most
unproductive overs (for England) of 0 and 1 runs, were cut
off. The balls reduced from 13 to 1, but the target reduced
only from 22 to 21!
And therefore….

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Frank Duckworth and Anthony Lewis..

F.C. Duckworth and A.J. Lewis: ‘A Fair Method for Resetting

the Target in Interrupted One-Day Cricket Matches’; The
Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol 49 No.3
(March 1998) pp.220-227
Basis: The batting side has two resources at its disposal to
make its total score: overs to face and wickets in hand.
Therefore can compute the potential number of runs that can
be scored from any position

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Frank Duckworth and Anthony Lewis..

“The way our method works is to set Team 2s target score to

reflect the relative resources they have compared with Team
1.
We therefore need a two-factor relationship between the
proportion of the total runs which may be scored and the two
resources, overs to be faced and wickets in hand.
To obtain this it is necessary to establish a suitable
mathematical expression for the relationship and then to use

relevant data to estimate its parameters.

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Frank Duckworth and Anthony Lewis..

Z(u, w) = ZO(w)[1 - exp{-b(w)u}] (2) where ZO(w) is the

asymptotic average total score from the last 10-w wickets in
unlimited overs and b(w) is the exponential decay constant,

both of which depend on the number of wickets already lost.

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D-L

Assuming that Team 2 had w wickets down and u1 overs left

when rain stops play and when play is resumed they get only
u2 overs, how should score be re-set?
Since they have lost a resource (overs) the target has to be
revised downwards. How?
Use the two factor model and compute their proportionate
resources lost

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Cricket Analytics..

Got a hang of it?

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The Motivation

Elderton, W & Wood, G.H. (1945): Cricket Scores and

Geometric Progression Journal of the Royal Statistical
Society Vol. 108, No 1 / 2, pp.12-40
‘In conclusion I desire to offer a special word of thanks to
Sir William. At last a great statistician has discovered what
is, I believe, the richest field of statistical material left
untilled’

!! Still left
“Primer of Statistics (1909)” untilled !!

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Other Work, Further Work..

Cricket, and sports in general

Plenty! Go do it!
Dynamic Programming
Chernoff Faces (And VORP?)
Looking at what was not done, rather than what was
done!!

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So…

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