FASHION TREND

FORECASTING
FDI / TCH3J3
THE BASICS
Of Fashion And Tren Forecasting
 TREND STYLE DESIGN FASHION

“Identifiable similarities “In apparel, a “Unique combination “A style that is popular in

accross information style is a of silhouette, the present or a set of
sources related to styles, particular construction, fabric trends that have been
details, or other aspects combination of and details that accepted by a wide
of appearance attributes that distinguishes a single audience. Fashion is a
characterized by a distinguishes it fashion object from all complex phenomenon
building awareness of this from others in its other objects of the from psychological,
new look and accelerating category” – same category or sociological, cultural, or
demand among Solomon & Rabolt classes ” – Sproles & commercial point of view ”
consumers” – Brannon (2004) Burns (1994) – Brannon (2011)
(2011)
“A fashion style is accepted and diffused among “a style of consumer product or way of behaving
that is temporarily adopted by a discernible
people at a moderate rate; it is slowly accepted in the
proportion of members of a social group because
beginning, rapidly rises, reach its peak, and gradually
that chosen style or behavior is perceived to be
declines. A fashion style remains popular for quite a
socially appropriate for the time and situation”
long time, having widespread acceptance among
(Sproles & Burns 1994, p. 4)
consumers.”- Kim & Fiore (2011)

Fashion

FAD Classic
“Unlike a fashion style, it becomes popular very rapidly, “Classic styles may be adopted at a slow rate in the

reaching its peak quickly, and then suddenly dies out. It beginning, but the telltale sign of a classic is its staying power.

tends to obtain limited rather than substantial adoption Classics are widely accepted and stay in fashion for an

and may be accepted only in certain social and extended period of time, with some slight variation in detail.”
- Kim & Fiore (2011)
subcultural groups.” Sproles & Burns, (1994).
Style Life Cycle
 World
Events

Fashion Trends
Social
Changes
In Context
“New fashions have been continuously
Economy
created throughout history. Although
new fashions are considered to be
innovations, most of them are not greatly
different from existing fashions and are
Subculture modifications of previous ones (i.e.,
continuous in-novations)”-
Kim & Fiore (2011)
Fashion
Leaders

Technology
Fashion Life Cycle
Fashion Leadership Theories
CONSUMER ROLE
In Fashion Adoption
Characteristics Of An Innovation

Relative
Compatibility Complexity Trialability Observability
Advantage

Items are more Items are more Degree of difficulty The product is
satisfactory then to use the product Visibility of the
compatible/ familliar available for
previous one product in mass
then previous one consumer to try
market
MEMBUAT JURNAL
Mengapa membuat jurnal? Format Jurnal ?

https://www.slideshare.net/Sut Lihat contoh.

hini/fashion-cycle-23140789
Innovators frequently are young and well educated, have
the financial resources to easily absorb financial loss, are
very social, are in close contact with sources of product
innovations, and interact with other innovators (Rogers,
2003). Accord-ing to Behling (1992), fashion innovators
have been found to read more fashion magazines, spend
more time seeking information about fashion trends,
INNOVATORS
belong to more organizations, and be more gregarious
and self-confident than non-innovators (Painter &
Pinegar, 1971; Reynolds & Darden, 1973). They also
tend to make impulse purchases (Phau & Lo, 2004).
Innovation Adoption Process
Fashion Fashion
Followers Followers

Leaders-
Public Figure

Leaders –
Editors/
Designers Laggards
Adoption ROBERTSON (1971)

Process Problem Perception Bored/ The need

Model ROGERS (1962) Awareness

to change

Awareness Comprehension Learning period

Attitude Formation Result of

Interest evaluation

Seeks additional
Legitimation
info (opt)
Evaluation
Trial

Trial
Adoption

Adoption Dissonance
Which Korean
Beauty Brand Is Best
For Me ? Does it really work? Will
it damage my skin ?
How much will it cost ?
Do i have to buy the
whole set ? Who
reccomends it ?
THE PROCESS &
METHODS
In Fashion Trend Analysis And Forecasting
“Forecasting is both an art and a science . It is an art because
forecasts are often based on intuition, good judgment, and creativity. It is also a sci-
ence because forecasters use analytical concepts and models to predict forthcoming
trends in systematic ways” (Sproles & Burns, 1994).
Trend Forecasting
As a part of product development process in a brand.
Short Term 18 Months
Color
Forecasting -2 Years
Ahead

“Predicts trends one to two

years in the future and
Textile 18 Months
Ahead

focuses on new products,

Product
especially color, textile, and Evolution
Analysis Style
style”

Market Research
Long Term
Forecasting John
Naisbitt

Predicts trends five or more years in the future

and focuses on the directions of the fashion
industry, particularly in materials, design,
production, and retailing.
MEGATRENDS
Long-term forecasts contribute to a fashion
firm’s development strategies and help it make
decisions related to repositioning or extending 5-10
Content
product lines, initiating new businesses, and Years
Analysis
reviving brand images. Ahed
“Understanding of broad trends in society, including the changing state of the
economy, demographic trends, politics, the changing cultural environment, and
technological developments, is important”

(Sproles & Burns, 1994).

THE ROLE OF
FASHION INDUSTRY
Professionals In Trend Development And
Forecasting-
 Gate
Developers Promoters
Keepers
fashion forecasting
Buying Offices, Retail Advertisers, Websites,
companies develop
Buyers, Fashion Stylist, and Visual
their forecasting
Magazine Editor Merchandisers
materials

process of collecting
enhance the aesthetic
information related to
Selection Process value of the newly
culture, the economy,
introduced products
politics, technology

conducting market and Influence Styles and Increase consumer

consumer research Trends awareness.

analyzing and
synthesizing the
information.
FINAL PROJECT:
Fashion Trend Forecasting 2019-2020
TIMELINE Wk 11-13
KONTEN FINAL PROJECT
1. Tren Driver berupa mind map dan narasi yang sesuai. Dibuat
dengan bahasa Indonesia yang baik dan benar. Dilengkapi
dengan lampiran sumber data pustaka/ screen shot website/
media sosial.
2. Menentukan satu buah tema besar. Contoh: Archean
3. Membuat sub-tema dimana unsur unsur pada tren dapat
diterapkan pada desain busana. Contoh: Bulky
FORECASTING
MULAI DARI MANA ?
STEP 1. RESEARCH
1. Identifikasi fakta perihal tren sebelumnya.
2. Analisis faktor yang menyebabkan perubahan tersebut.
3. Bandingkan antara perilaku yang sebenarnya (realita) dengan
tren sebelumnya.
4. Tentukan faktor-faktor yang dapat berpengaruh pada tren
berikutnya.
5. Gunakan forecasting tools dan pastikan data yang diperoleh
akurat.
6. Lakukan kajian terhadap faktor faktor yang mempengaruhi
lahirnya tren baru
7. Terus melakukan pengembangan dan revisi berdasarkan data
terkini.
TYPES OF RESEARCH

Primary Research: Travel, Museums, On

The Spot Experience, Observation,
Interview, Survey
Secondary Research: Books, Magazine,
Internet, Social Media
Brainstorming and Mind Map
History. Culture. Nature. Art. Film.
Architecture. Technology. Popular Culture.
Current Events. Sports. Subculture. Travel.
Lifestyle of a generation.
STEP 2. GATHER DATA

Primary Data: Documentation or written

report on observation, interview, survey
Secondary Data: Picture, Articles, Web
Article

Brainstorming and Mind Map:

Keywords relevant to topic
CONTOH
MIND MAP
Tujuan membuat mind map
adalah untuk lebih memahami
isu yang sedang dikaji.

Keywords yang dihasilkan

pada mind map membantu
dalam proses pencarian
visual/image yang tepat.

Lebih lanjut mind map

membantu seorang forecaster
dalam melakukan proses
scanning dan analisis secara
keseluruhan untuk
memperoleh gambaran yang
lebih besar perihal isu yang
dikaji.
Image hasil primary
dan secondary
research dapat
digunakan untuk
melengkapi
mindmap serta
memberikan
pemahaman yang
lebih mendalam
perihal isu yang
dikaji
STEP 3. ANALISIS

Berdasarkan mind map yang telah dibuat,

seorang forecaster selayaknya dapat
melakukan analisis terhadap faktor faktor
yang berpengaruh terhadap kemunculan
sebuah tren baru.
Analisis yang dibuat berupa sebuah uraian
atau narasi yang menceritakan keterkaitan
berbagai faktor yang mempengaruhi
kelahiran sebuah tren baru.
Salah satu
bentuk
narasi
perihal tren
driver pada
forecast
“Greyzone”
Tren driver
pada forecast
“Greyzone”
wajib
dipahami
sebelum
menerapkan
nya pada
proses desain
produk
fashion
STEP 4. KESIMPULAN

Ketika tim telah berhasil menarasikan

faktor faktor yang mempengaruhi
munculnya tren baru, selanjutnya tim
perlu menerjemahkannya dalam konteks
fashion berupa:
1. Surface
2. Bentuk/ Struktur
3. Warna
4. Detail Busana
“ Dalam proses pengembangan tren, riset terhadap isu
yang diangkat serta kemampuan dalam menarasikan,
membuat kesimpulan, dan menerapkan segala unsur
tersebut pada aspek desain menjadi sebuah hal yang
fundamental bagi seorang tren forecaster”