7

Probability

 Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events

 Definition of Probability
 Rules of Probability
 Use of Counting Techniques in Probability
 Conditional Probability and Independent Events
 Bayes’ Theorem
7.1
Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events
 Terminology

Experiment
 An experiment is an activity with
observable results.
 The results of an experiment are called
outcomes of the experiment.
 Examples
 Tossing a coin and observing whether it falls heads
or tails
 Rolling a die and observing which of the numbers
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 shows up
 Testing a spark plug from a batch of 100 spark
plugs and observing whether or not it is defective
 Terminology

Sample Point, Sample Space, and Event

 Sample point:
An outcome of an experiment
 Sample space:
The set consisting of all possible sample
points of an experiment
 Event:
A subset of a sample space of an experiment
 Example
 Describe the sample space associated with the experiment
of tossing a coin and observing whether it falls heads or
tails.
 What are the events of this experiment?
Solution
 The two outcomes are heads and tails, and the required
sample space is given by
S = {H, T}
where H denotes the outcome heads and T denotes the
outcome tails.
 The events of the experiment, the subsets of S, are

Ø, {H}, {T}, S
Example 1, page 354
 Terminology

Union of Two Events

 The union of two events E and F is the
event E  F.
 Thus, the event E  F contains the set of
outcomes of E and/or F.
 Terminology

Intersection of Two Events

 The intersection of two events E and F is
the event E  F.
 Thus, the event E  F contains the set of
outcomes common to E and F.
 Terminology

Complement of an Event
 The complement of an event E is the event
E c.
 Thus, the event E c is the set containing all
the outcomes in the sample space S that are
not in E.
 Example
 Consider the experiment of rolling a die and observing the
number that falls uppermost.
 Let
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
denote the sample space of the experiment and
E = {2, 4, 6} and F = {1, 3}
be events of this experiment.
 Compute E  F. Interpret your results.
Solution
 E  F = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6} and is the event that the outcome of
the experiment is a 1, a 2, a 3, a 4, or a 6.

Example 2, page 355

 Example
 Consider the experiment of rolling a die and observing the
number that falls uppermost.
 Let
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
denote the sample space of the experiment and
E = {2, 4, 6} and F = {1, 3}
be events of this experiment.
 Compute E  F. Interpret your results.
Solution
 E  F = Ø since there are no elements in common between
the two sets E and F.

Example 2, page 355

 Example
 Consider the experiment of rolling a die and observing the
number that falls uppermost.
 Let
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
denote the sample space of the experiment and
E = {2, 4, 6} and F = {1, 3}
be events of this experiment.
 Compute F c. Interpret your results.
Solution
 F c = {2, 4, 5, 6} is precisely the event that the event F does
not occur.

Example 2, page 355

 Terminology

Mutually Exclusive Events

 E and F are mutually exclusive if

EF=Ø
 Example
 An experiment consists of tossing a coin three times and
observing the resulting sequence of heads and tails.
✦ Describe the sample space S of the experiment.
✦ Determine the event E that exactly two heads appear.
✦ Determine the event F that at least one head appears.

Example 3, page 356

 Example
Solution
 As the tree diagram demonstrates, the sample space is

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

Example 2, page 355

 Example
Solution
 Scanning the sample space obtained

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

we see that the outcomes in which exactly two heads
appear are given by the event
E = {HHT, HTH, THH}
 We can also see that the outcomes in which at least one
head appears are given by the event
F = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH}

Example 2, page 355

 Applied Example: Movie Attendance
 The manager of a local cinema records the number of
patrons attending a first-run movie screening.
 The theatre has a seating capacity of 500.
 Determine an appropriate sample space for this experiment.
 Describe the event E that fewer than 50 people attend the
screening.
 Describe the event F that the theatre is more than half full
at the screening.
Solution
 The number of patrons at the screening could run from
0 to 500. Therefore, a sample space for this experiment is
S = {0, 1, 2, 3, …, 500}

Applied Example 5, page 357

 Applied Example: Movie Attendance
 The manager of a local cinema records the number of
patrons attending a first-run movie screening.
 The theatre has a seating capacity of 500.
 Determine an appropriate sample space for this experiment.
 Describe the event E that fewer than 50 people attend the
screening.
 Describe the event F that the theatre is more than half full
at the screening.
Solution
 The event E that fewer than 50 people attend the screening
can be described as
E = {0, 1, 2, 3, …, 49}

Applied Example 5, page 357

 Applied Example: Movie Attendance
 The manager of a local cinema records the number of
patrons attending a first-run movie screening.
 The theatre has a seating capacity of 500.
 Determine an appropriate sample space for this experiment.
 Describe the event E that fewer than 50 people attend the
screening.
 Describe the event F that the theatre is more than half full
at the screening.
Solution
 The event F that the theatre is more than half full at the
screening can be described as
F = {251, 252, …, 500}

Applied Example 5, page 357

7.2
Definition of Probability

P ( E ) = P[(1,1)] + P[(2, 2)] + �

��+ P[(6,6)]
1 1 1
= + +� ��+
36 36 36
1
=
6
P( E6 ) = P[(1,5)] + P[(2, 4)] + P[(3, 3)] + P[(4, 2)] + P[(5,1)]
[(3,3)]
1 1 1 1 1
= + + + +
36 36 36 36 36
5
=
36
Probability of an Event in a Uniform Sample Space

 If
S = {s1, s2, … , sn}

is the sample space for an experiment in

which the outcomes are equally likely,
then we assign the probabilities
1
P ( s1 ) = P( s2 ) = �
��= P ( sn ) =
n
to each of the outcomes s1, s2, … , sn.
 Example
 A fair die is rolled, and the number that falls uppermost is
observed.
 Determine the probability distribution for the experiment.
Solution
 The sample space for the experiment is

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
and the simple events are accordingly given by the sets
{1}, {2}, {3}, {4}, {5}, and {6}
 Since the die is assumed to be fair, the six outcomes are
equally likely.
 We therefore assign a probability of 1/6 to each of the
simple events.
Example 1, page 364
 Example
 A fair die is thrown, and the number that falls uppermost is
observed.
 Determine the probability distribution for the experiment.
Solution
 Thus, the probability distribution of these simple events is:

Simple
event Probability
{1} 1/6
{2} 1/6
{3} 1/6
{4} 1/6
{5} 1/6
{6} 1/6
Example 1, page 364
 Finding the Probability of Event E

1. Determine a sample space S associated with

the experiment.
2. Assign probabilities to the simple events of S.
3. If
E = {s1, s2, … , sn}
where {s1}, {s2}, {s3}, … , {sn} are simple events,
then
P(E) = P(s1) + P(s2) + P(s3) + ··· + P(sn)

If E is the empty set, Ø, then P(E) = 0.

 Applied Example: Rolling Dice

 A pair of fair dice is rolled.

 Calculate the probability that the two dice show the
same number.
 Calculate the probability that the sum of the numbers
of the two dice is 6.

Applied Example 3, page 365

 Applied Example: Rolling Dice
Solution
 The sample space S of the experiment has 36 outcomes

S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), … , (6, 5), (6, 6)}

 Both dice are fair, making each of the 36 outcomes
equally likely, so we assign the probability of 1/36 to each
simple event.
 The event that the two dice show the same number is

E = {(1, 1), (2, 2) , (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}
 Therefore, the probability that the two dice show the same
number is given by
P( E ) = P[(1,1)] + P[(2, 2)] + �
��+ P[(6,6)]
1 1 1 1
= + +� ��+ = Six terms
36 36 36 6
Applied Example 3, page 365
 Applied Example: Rolling Dice
Solution
 The event that the sum of the numbers of the two dice is 6
is given by
E6 = {(1, 5), (2, 4) , (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}
 Therefore, the probability that the sum of the numbers on
the two dice is 6 is given by
P( E6 ) = P[(1,5)] + P[(2, 4)] + P[(3,3)] + P[(4, 2)] + P[(5,1)]
1 1 1 1 1 5
= + + + + =
36 36 36 36 36 36

Applied Example 3, page 365

7.3
Rules of Probability

Property 1. P(E)  0 for every E.

Property 2. P(S) = 1.
Property 3. If E and F are mutually exclusive
(E  F = Ø), then
P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F)
Property 4. If E and F are any two events of an
experiment, then
P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E  F)
Property 5. If E is an event of an experiment and
Ec denotes the complement of E, then
P(Ec) = 1 – P(E)
Properties of the Probability Function

Property 1. P(E)  0 for every E.

Property 2. P(S) = 1.
Property 3. If E and F are mutually exclusive
(E  F = Ø), then
P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F)
 Applied Example: SAT Verbal Scores
 The superintendent of a metropolitan school district has
estimated the probabilities associated with the SAT verbal
scores of students from that district.
The results are shown in the table below.
 If a student is selected at random, find the probability that
his or her SAT verbal score will be
✦ More than 400.
✦ Less than or equal to 500. Score, x Probability
✦ Greater than 400 but less x > 700 .01
than or equal to 600. 600 < x  700 .07
500 < x  600 .19
400 < x  500 .23
300 < x  400 .31
x  300 .19
Applied Example 1, page 372
 Applied Example: SAT Verbal Scores
Solution
 Let A, B, C, D, E, and F denote, respectively, the mutually
exclusive events listed in the table below.
 The probability that the student’s score will be more than
400 is given by
P(D  C  B  A) = P(D) + P(C) + P(B) + P(A)
= .23 + .19 + .07 + .01 = .50
Score, x Probability
A x > 700 .01
B 600 < x  700 .07
C 500 < x  600 .19
D 400 < x  500 .23
E 300 < x  400 .31
F x  300 .19
Applied Example 1, page 372
 Applied Example: SAT Verbal Scores
Solution
 Let A, B, C, D, E, and F denote, respectively, the mutually
exclusive events listed in the table below.
 The probability that the student’s score will be less than or
equal to 500 is given by
P(D  E  F) = P(D) + P(E) + P(F)
= .23 + .31 + .19 = .73
Score, x Probability
A x > 700 .01
B 600 < x  700 .07
C 500 < x  600 .19
D 400 < x  500 .23
E 300 < x  400 .31
F x  300 .19
Applied Example 1, page 372
 Applied Example: SAT Verbal Scores
Solution
 Let A, B, C, D, E, and F denote, respectively, the mutually
exclusive events listed in the table below.
 The probability that the student’s score will be greater
than 400 but less than or equal to 600 is given by
P(C  D) = P(C) + P(D)
= .19 + .23 = .42
Score, x Probability
A x > 700 .01
B 600 < x  700 .07
C 500 < x  600 .19
D 400 < x  500 .23
E 300 < x  400 .31
F x  300 .19
Applied Example 1, page 372
 Properties of the Probability Function

Addition Rule
Property 4. If E and F are any two events of an
experiment, then
P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F) – P(E  F)
 Example
 A card is drawn from a shuffled deck of 52 playing cards.
 What is the probability that it is an ace or a spade?
Solution
 Let E denote the event that the card drawn is an ace, and
let F denote the event that the card drawn is a spade.
 Then,
4 13
P( E ) = and P ( F ) =
52 52
 Note that E and F are not mutually exclusive events:
✦ E  F is the event that the card drawn is an ace of spades.
✦ Consequently,
1
P ( E �F ) =
52

Example 2, page 373

 Example
 A card is drawn from a shuffled deck of 52 playing cards.
 What is the probability that it is an ace or a spade?
Solution
 The event that a card drawn is an ace or a spade is E  F,
with probability given by
P( E �F ) = P ( E ) + P ( F ) - P ( E �F )
4 13 1
= + -
52 52 52
16
=
52
4
=
13

Example 2, page 373

 Applied Example: Quality Control
 The quality-control department of Vista Vision,
manufacturer of the Pulsar plasma TV, has determined
from records obtained from the company’s service centers
that 3% of the sets sold experience video problems, 1%
experience audio problems, and 0.1% experience both
video and audio problems before the expiration of the
warranty.
 Find the probability that a plasma TV purchased by a
consumer will experience video or audio problems before
the warranty expires.

Applied Example 3, page 373

 Applied Example: Quality Control
Solution
 Let E denote the event that a plasma TV purchased will
experience video problems within the warranty period, and
let F denote the event that a plasma TV purchased will
experience audio problems within the warranty period.
 Then,
P(E) = .03 P(F) = .01 P(E  F) = .001
 The event that a plasma TV purchased will experience
video or audio problems before the warranty expires is

E  F, and the probability of this event is given by

P ( E �F ) = P ( E ) + P ( F ) - P( E �F )
= .03 + .01 - .001
= .039
Applied Example 3, page 373
Properties of the Probability Function

Rule of Complements
Property 5. If E is an event of an experiment
and Ec denotes the complement
of E, then
P(Ec) = 1 – P(E)
 Applied Example: Warranties

 What is the probability that a Pulsar plasma TV (from the

last example) bought by a consumer will not experience
video or audio problems before the warranty expires?
Solution
 Let E denote the event that a plasma TV bought by a
consumer will experience video or audio problems before
the warranty expires.
 Then, the event that the plasma TV will not experience
either problem before the warranty expires is given by Ec,
with probability
P ( E c ) = 1 - P( E )
= 1 - .039
= .961

Applied Example 4, page 375

7.4
Use of Counting Techniques in Probability

6! 6 ��
5 4
n( E ) C (6,3)
P( E ) = = = 3!3! = 3 � 2
n( S ) 64 64 64
20 5
= = = .3125
64 16

n( F ) 42 21
P( F ) = = = �.65625
n( S ) 64 32
 Computing the Probability of an Event
in a Uniform Sample Space

 Let S be a uniform sample space and let E be

any event. Then,

Number of outcomes in E n( E )
P( E ) = =
Number of outcomes in S n( S )
 Example

 An unbiased coin is tossed six times.

 Find the probability that the coin will land heads
✦ Exactly three times.
✦ At most three times.
✦ On the first and the last toss.

Example 1, page 381

 Example
Solution
 Each outcome of the experiment may be represented as a
sequence of heads and tails.
 Using the generalized multiplication principle , we see that
the number of outcomes of this experiment is 26, or 64.
 Let E denote the event that the coin lands heads exactly
three times.
 Since there are C(6, 3) ways this can occur, we see that the
required probability is
6! 6 ��
5 4
n ( E ) C (6, 3)
P( E ) = = = 3!3! = 3 � 2
n( S ) 64 64 64
20 5
= = = .3125
64 16
Example 1, page 381
 Example
Solution
 Let F denote the event that the coin lands heads at most
three times.
 Then, n(F) is given by the sum of the number of ways the
coin lands heads zero times (no heads), exactly once,
exactly twice, and exactly three times. That is,
n ( F ) = C (6, 0) + C (6,1) + C (6, 2) + C (6, 3)
6! 6! 6! 6! 6� 5 6 ��
5 4
= + + + = 1+ 6 + +
0!6! 1!5! 2!4! 3!3! 2 3�2
= 42

 Thus, the required probability is

n( F ) 42 21
P( F ) = = = �.6563
n( S ) 64 32
Example 1, page 381
 Example
Solution
 Let H denote the event that the coin lands heads on the
first and the last toss.
 Then,
n ( H ) = 1 �����
2 2 2 2 1 = 24

 Therefore, the required probability is

n( H ) 24 1 1
P( H ) = = 6 = 2 =
n( S ) 2 2 4

Example 1, page 381

7.5
Conditional Probability and Independent Events

P ( A �B )
P( B A) =
P( A)

P ( A �B ) = P ( A) �
P( B A)

P ( A B ) = P ( A) P ( B A) = P ( B )

P ( A �B ) = P ( A) �
P( B )
 Conditional Probability of an Event

 If A and B are events in an experiment and

P(A)  0, then the conditional probability that
the event B will occur given that the event A
has already occurred is
P ( A �B )
P ( B A) =
P ( A)
 Example
 A pair of fair dice is rolled. What is the probability that
the sum of the numbers falling uppermost is 7 if it is
known that exactly one of the numbers is a 5?
Solution
 Let A denote the event that exactly one of the numbers is a
5 and let B denote the event that the sum of the numbers
falling uppermost is 7. Thus,
A = {(5,1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5,5), (5, 6),
(5,6),
(1,5), (2,5), (3,5), (4,5), (6,5)}
B = {(6,1), (5, 2), (4, 3), (3, 4), (2,5), (1,6)}
(1, 6)}
so
A �B = {(5, 2), (2,5)}
Example 2, page 390
 Example
 A pair of fair dice is rolled. What is the probability that
the sum of the numbers falling uppermost is 7 if it is
known that exactly one of the numbers is a 5?
Solution
 Since the dice are fair, each outcome of the experiment is
equally likely; therefore,
2 11
P ( A �B ) = and P ( A) =
36 36

 Thus, the probability that the sum of the numbers falling

uppermost is 7 given that exactly one of the numbers is a
5 is given by 2
P ( A �B ) 36 2
P ( B A) = = =
P ( A) 11 11
36
Example 2, page 390
 Applied Example: Color Blindness
 In a test conducted by the U.S. Army, it was found that of
1000 new recruits (600 men and 400 women), 50 of the
men and 4 of the women were red-green color-blind.
 Given that a recruit selected at random from this group is
red-green color-blind, what is the probability that the
recruit is a male?
Solution
 Let C denote the event that a randomly selected subject is
red-green color-blind, and let M denote the event that the
subject is a male recruit.

Applied Example 3, page 390

 Applied Example: Color Blindness
 In a test conducted by the U.S. Army, it was found that of
1000 new recruits (600 men and 400 women), 50 of the
men and 4 of the women were red-green color-blind.
 Given that a recruit selected at random from this group is
red-green color-blind, what is the probability that the
recruit is a male?
Solution
 Since 54 out of 1000 subjects are color-blind, we see that
54
P (C ) = = .054
1000
 Furthermore, since 50 of the subjects are colorblind and
male, we see that
50
P( M I C ) = = .05
1000
Applied Example 3, page 390
 Applied Example: Color Blindness
 In a test conducted by the U.S. Army, it was found that of
1000 new recruits (600 men and 400 women), 50 of the
men and 4 of the women were red-green color-blind.
 Given that a recruit selected at random from this group is
red-green color-blind, what is the probability that the
recruit is a male?
Solution
 Therefore, the probability that a subject is male given that
the subject is red-green color-blind is given by
P ( M I C ) .05
P( M C ) = = = .926
P (C ) .054

Applied Example 3, page 390

 Product Rule

P( A �B ) = P( A) �
P( B A)
 Example
 Two cards are drawn without replacement from a well-
shuffled deck of 52 playing cards.
 What is the probability that the first card drawn is an ace
and the second card drawn is a face card?
Solution
 Let A denote the event that the first card drawn is an ace,
and let F denote the event that the second card drawn is a
face card.
 Then,
4
P ( A) =
52

Example 5, page 392

 Example
 Two cards are drawn without replacement from a well-
shuffled deck of 52 playing cards.
 What is the probability that the first card drawn is an ace
and the second card drawn is a face card?
Solution
 After drawing the first card, there are 51 cards left in the
deck, of which 12 are face cards.
 Therefore, the probability of drawing a face card given
that the first card drawn was an ace is given by
12
P ( F A) =
51

Example 5, page 392

 Example
 Two cards are drawn without replacement from a well-
shuffled deck of 52 playing cards.
 What is the probability that the first card drawn is an ace
and the second card drawn is a face card?
Solution
 By the product rule, the probability that the first card
drawn is an ace and the second card drawn is a face card
is given by
P ( A �F ) = P ( A) �
P( F A)
4 12
= �
52 51
4
= �0.018
221
Example 5, page 392
 Independent Events

 If A and B are independent events, then

P ( A B ) = P ( A) and P ( B A) = P ( B )
Test for the Independence of Two Events

 Two events A and B are independent if and

only if
P ( A �B ) = P ( A) �
P( B)
 Example
 Consider the experiment consisting of tossing a fair coin
twice and observing the outcomes.
 Show that obtaining heads on the first toss and tails on the
second toss are independent events.
Solution
 Let A denote the event that the outcome of the first toss is
a head, and let B denote the event that the outcome of the
second toss is a tail.
 The sample space of the experiment is
S = {(HH), (HT), (TH), (TT)}
A = {(HH), (HT)}
B = {(HT), (TT)}
so
A �B = {(HT)}
Example 8, page 396
 Example
 Consider the experiment consisting of tossing a fair coin
twice and observing the outcomes.
 Show that obtaining heads in the first toss and tails in the
second toss are independent events.
Solution
 Next, we compute
1 1 1
P( A �B ) = P( A) = P( B ) =
4 2 2

and observe that the test for independent events is

satisfied:
P ( A �B ) = P( A) �
P( B)
1 1 1
= �
4 2 2

Example 8, page 396

 Applied Example: Medical Survey
 A survey conducted by an independent agency for the
National Lung Society found that, of 2000 women, 680
were heavy smokers and 50 had emphysema.
 Of those who had emphysema, 42 were heavy smokers.
 Using the data in this survey, determine whether the
events being a heavy smoker and having emphysema are
independent events.
Solution
 Let A denote the event that a woman is a heavy smoker,
and let B denote the event that a woman has emphysema.
 Then, the probabilities that a woman is a heavy smoker,
has emphysema, or both are given by, respectively,
680 50 42
P( A) = =.34 P( B ) = = 0.025 P ( A �B ) = = .021
2000 2000 2000
Applied Example 9, page 396
 Applied Example: Medical Survey
 A survey conducted by an independent agency for the
National Lung Society found that, of 2000 women, 680 were
heavy smokers and 50 had emphysema.
 Of those who had emphysema, 42 were heavy smokers.
 Using the data in this survey, determine whether the events
being a heavy smoker and having emphysema are
independent events.
Solution
 Next, we see that the test for independent events is not
satisfied:
P( B ) = (.34)(.025) = .0085 �.021 = P( A �B )
P( A) �

so P ( A �B ) �P ( A) �
P( B )

and conclude that A and B are not independent events.

Applied Example 9, page 396
7.6
Bayes’ Theorem

P (C ) �
P( D C )
P (C D ) =
P( D A) + P( B) �
P( A) � P ( D B ) + P (C ) �
P( D C )

(.2)(.02)
=
(.5)(.01) + (.3)(.02) + (.2)(.02)
�.27
 Bayes’ Theorem

 Let A1, A2, … , An be a partition of a sample space S,

and let E be an event of the experiment such that

P(E)  0 and P(Ai)  0 for 1 ≤ i ≤ n

 Then the a posteriori probability
P ( Ai E ) (1 �i �n )
is given by
P( Ai ) �
P( E Ai )
P( Ai E ) =
P( E A1 ) + P( A2 ) �
P( A1 ) � P ( E A2 ) + �
��+ P ( An ) �
P ( E An )
 Applied Example: Quality Control
 The panels for the Pulsar widescreen LCD HDTVs are
manufactured in three locations and then shipped to the
main plant of Vista Vision for final assembly.
 Plants A, B, and C supply 50%, 30%, and 20%,
respectively, of the panels used by Vista Vision.
 The quality-control department of the company has
determined that 1% of the panels produced by plant A are
defective, whereas 2% of the panels produced by plants B
and C are defective.
 If a Pulsar widescreen TV is selected at random and the
panel is found to be defective, what is the probability that
the panel was manufactured in plant C?

Applied Example 1, page 404

 Applied Example: Quality Control
Solution
 Let A, B, and C denote the event that the set chosen has a
panel manufactured in plant A, plant B, or plant C,
respectively.
 Also, let D denote the event that a set has a defective panel.
 We can draw a tree diagram with this information:

Applied Example 1, page 404

 Applied Example: Quality Control
Solution
 Next, using Bayes’ theorem, we find that the required
a posteriori probability is given by
P (C ) �
P( D C )
P (C D ) =
P( D A) + P( B ) �
P( A) � P ( D B ) + P (C ) �
P( D C )

(.2)(.02)
=
(.5)(.01) + (.3)(.02) + (.2)(.02)

�.27

Applied Example 1, page 404

 End of
Chapter