Chapter 3

PROBABILITY
Probability and
Counting Rules
1
Overview
“
2

o Sample Spaces and Probability

o Counting Rules
o Probability of an Event
o Addition Rules for Probability
o Multiplication Rules & Conditional Probability
o Bayes Rule
3
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What is the probability that I will choose a red marble?

Probabililty In this bag of marbles, there are:

○ 3 red marbles
○ 2 white marbles
○ 1 purple marbles
○ 4 green marbles
 Probability 5

• Probability can be defined as the chance of

an event occurring. It can be used to quantify
what the “odds” are that a specific event will
occur.
• Some examples of how probability is used
everyday would be weather forecasting, “75%
chance of rain” or for setting insurance rates.
 Experiment, Outcomes, Sample Space 6

Definition
An experiment is a process that, when performed, results in one and only one of
many observations. These observations are called that outcomes of the
experiment. The collection of all outcomes for an experiment is called a sample
space.

EXAMPLE 1:
Experiment: Tossing a fair coin

Outcomes : A Head and Tail

Sample Space (S) : S = {Head, Tail}

(Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the sample space, or
simply a sample point. If sample space has a finite number of elements, we may list the
elements in the usual set notation.)
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Experiment Outcomes Sample Space

Table 1.1: Toss a coin once Head, Tail S = {Head, Tail}

Examples of Roll a die once 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Experiments, Toss a coin twice HH, HT, TH, TT S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

Outcomes, Play a game Win, Lose S = {Win, Lose}

and Sample Take a test Pass, Fail S = {Pass, Fail}

Spaces Select a student Male, Female S = {Male, Female}

The sample space for an experiment can also be illustrated by drawing

either a Venn diagram or a tree diagram. Venn and tree diagrams help
us understand probability concepts by presenting them visually.
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○ A Venn diagram is a picture that depicts all the possible

outcomes for an experiment.
Venn and Tree ○ In a tree diagram, each outcome is represented by a branch
Diagrams of the tree.
○ Recall Example 1: Tossing a fair coin.

Outcomes

Head H
S

H T
Tail T

(b)
(a)

Figure 1: (a) Venn Diagram and (b) tree diagram for one toss of a coin.
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○ Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Example :
Rolling Dice
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○ Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a

family has three children. Use B for boy and G for girl.
Example :
Gender of
Children
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a. Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the experiment of

tossing a coin twice.
Exercise 1 b. An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping
it a second time if a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the
first flip, then a die is tossed once. List the elements of the
sample space providing the most information by
constructing a tree diagram.
(Note: The various paths along the branches of the tree give the
distinct sample points.)
c. Suppose that three items are selected at random from a
manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and
classified defective, D, or non-defective, N. List the
elements of the sample space via a tree diagram.
 Definition 12

An event is the subset of a sample space

1. An event that has only one sample point is a simple event.

Events 2. If it has more than one sample point, it is known as compound event.

Simple
3. An event that has no sample points is often called a null set, denoted as
.
Event Compound Recall :
○ Experiment : Toss a fair coin
Null set
○ Outcomes : Head, Tail
○ Sample space : S = {Head, Tail}

○ Event : Choose head to be an event, A={Head}

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Venn
diagram
for
S
Exercise HT
HH
1a
TH
TT

(a)
 14

Tree Second Final

First toss
Diagram toss outcomes

For
Exercise H
HH
1a
H
T HT
H TH
T

T TT
(b)
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Tree
diagram
for
Exercise
1b
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Tree
diagram
for
Exercise
1c
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○ Sample space with a large or infinite number of elements are best

described by a statement or rule.

Example 2 ○ Example 2a: If the possible outcomes of an experiment are the set of
automobiles equipped with citizen band (CB) radios, the sample space
may be written as
○ Example 2b: Describe a sample space that might be appropriate for an
experiment in which we roll a pair of dice, one red and one yellow.
Solution: S =  x x is an automobile with a CB radio

For a single toss of both dice, the sample space is

S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6),
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}

S = ( x , y ) x = 1, 2, ..., 6 ; y = 1, 2, ..., 6 
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The experiment is to roll a fair die.

○The sample space, S = { }
Exercise 2a Event: (Some events from the experiment)
◦A = the number 4 was observed.
A={ }
◦B = an odd number was observed.
B={ }
◦C = a number less than 3 was observed.
C={ }
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○ In many problems of probability we are interested in events

that are actually combinations of two or more events,
Definitions formed by taking unions, intersections and complements.
 Union 20

Given A and B two events in a sample space S.

Definition
 Intersection 21

Definition
 Complement 22

Definition

A : read as “A bar”
or
Other symbols:
Ac : “A complement”
 Mutually Exclusive 23

Definition
Summary 24
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Suppose S = {E1, E2, E3, E4, E5, E6}.
Let A = {E1, E3, E5} and B = {E1, E2, E3}.
Find:
Exercise
3a i. AB=
ii. AB=
iii. A =
iv. B =
v. Are A and B mutually exclusive?
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The relationship between events and the corresponding sample

space can be illustrated graphically by means of Venn diagrams.

Exercise Referring to Figure 2:

3b i. A  B = regions 1
and 2
ii. B  C =
iii. A  C =
iv. B  A=
v. A  B  C =
vi. (A  B) C=

Figure 2 Events represented by various regions