1-1 The Engineering Method and

Statistical Thinking
• An engineer is someone who solves problems of interest to
society by the efficient application of scientific principles.
• Engineers accomplish this by either refining an existing
product or process or by designing a new product or
process that meets customers’ needs.
• The engineering, or scientific, method is the approach to
formulating and solving these problems.
• Engineers solve problems of interest to society by the
efficient application of scientific principles
The Engineering Method
 The Engineering Method

1. Develop a clear and concise description of the

problem. the engineering method features a strong
interplay between the problem
 The Engineering Method

2. Identify, at least tentatively, the important factors

that affect this problem or that may play a role in its
solution.
 The Engineering Method

2. Identify, at least tentatively, the important factors

that affect this problem or that may play a role in its
solution.
 The Engineering Method

3. Propose a model for the problem, using scientific or

engineering knowledge of the phenomenon being
studied. State any limitations or assumptions of the
model.
 The Engineering Method

4. Conduct appropriate experiments and collect data to

test or validate the tentative model or conclusions
made in steps 2 and 3.
 The Engineering Method
Steps 2–4 in are enclosed in a box, indicating that
several cycles or iterations of these steps may be
required to obtain the final solution. Consequently,
engineers must know how to efficiently plan
experiments, collect data, analyze and interpret the
data, and understand how the observed data are related
to the model they have proposed for the problem
under study.
 The Engineering Method

5. Refine the model on the basis of the observed data

 The Engineering Method

6. Manipulate the model to assist in developing a

solution to the problem.
 The Engineering Method

7. Conduct an appropriate experiment to confirm that

the proposed solution to the problem is both effective
and efficient
 The Engineering Method

8. Draw conclusions or make recommendations based

on the problem solution.
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking

• Engineers apply physical and chemical laws and

mathematics to design, develop, test, and supervise
various products and services.
• Engineers perform tests to learn how things behave
under stress, and at what point they might fail.
 The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking

The Field of Probability

• Used to quantify likelihood or chance
• Used to represent risk or uncertainty in engineering
applications
• Can be interpreted as our degree of belief or relative
frequency

The Field of Statistics

• Deals with the collection, presentation, analysis, and
use of data to make decisions and solve problems.
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking
 Statistics is the science of conducting
studies to
collect, organize, present, analyze,
interpret and use of data to
• Draw conclusions
• Make decisions
• Solve problems
• Design products and processes
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking

Descriptive statistics consists of the collection,

organization, summarization, and presentation of data.
Inferential statistics consists of generalizing from
samples to populations, performing estimations and
hypothesis tests, determining relationships among
variables, and making predictions.
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking

A variable is a characteristic or attribute that can

assume different values.
The values that a variable can assume are called data.
data
A population consists of all subjects (human or
otherwise) that are studied.
A sample is a subset of the population.
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking

Parameter – is a numerical measure that describe a

characteristics of a population.
Example: The population mean of the electricity bills of
the residents of a certain city is P 1,500.00
Statistics – is a numerical measure that describes a
characteristics of a sample
Example: The sample mean of the electricity bills of 20
residents of a certain city is P 1,500.00
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking

Parameter – is a numerical measure that describe a

characteristics of a population.
Example: The population mean of the electricity bills of
the residents of a certain city is P 1,500.00
Statistics – is a numerical measure that describes a
characteristics of a sample
Example: The sample mean of the electricity bills of 20
residents of a certain city is P 1,500.00
 Data Collection and Sampling
Techniques
Some Sampling Techniques
• Random – random number generator
• Systematic – every kth subject
• Stratified – divide population into “layers”
• Cluster – use intact groups
• Convenient – mall surveys
 Variables and Types of Data
Data

Qualitative Quantitative
Categorical Numerical,
Can be ranked

Discrete Continuous
Countable Can be decimals
5, 29, 8000, etc. 2.59, 312.1, etc.
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking

• Statistical techniques are useful for describing and

understanding variability.
• By variability, we mean successive observations of a
system or phenomenon do not produce exactly the same
result.
• Statistics gives us a framework for describing this
variability and for learning about potential sources of
variability.
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking
• Categorical or Qualitative Variables Are variables
that are classified according to some attributes or
categories
• Examples: gender, eye color, religion, blood type,
civil status, year level, course, profession and socio
economic status.
• The categories may be ordered but specific
numerical values may or may not be assigned.
• Examples: Performance Rating ( Poor, Fair, Good,
VG, Excellent)
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking

• Numerical-Valued or Quantitative Variables

Are variables that are classified according to
numerical characteristics.
• Examples: height, age, pulse rate, number of
children, and speed.
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking

• Discrete Variables – are variables whose

values are obtained by counting.
• Examples: number of children, number of
persons with blue eyes, number of patience
with TB, number of males and females in a
Statistics class
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking

• Continuous Variables – are whose values are

obtained by measuring.
• Examples: temperature, distance, area, density,
height and weight.
 Variables and Types of Data
Levels of Measurement
1. Nominal – categorical (names)

2. Ordinal – nominal, plus can be ranked (order)

3. Interval – ordinal, plus intervals are consistent

4. Ratio – interval, plus ratios are consistent, true zero

 Variables and Types of Data

Determine the measurement level.

Variable Nominal Ordinal Interval Ratio Level
Hair Color Yes No Nominal
Zip Code Yes No Nominal
Letter Grade Yes Yes No Ordinal
NAT Score Yes Yes Yes No Interval
Height Yes Yes Yes Yes Ratio
Age Yes Yes Yes Yes Ratio
Temperature(F) Yes Yes Yes No Interval
 The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking
• We all encounter variability in our everyday lives, and
statistical thinking can give us a useful way to
incorporate this variability into our decision-making
processes.
• For example, consider the gasoline mileage performance
of your car. Do you always get exactly the same mileage
performance on every tank of fuel? Of course not—in
fact, sometimes the mileage performance varies
considerably.
 The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking
• This observed variability in gasoline mileage depends on
many factors, such as the type of driving that has
occurred most recently (city versus highway), the
changes in condition of the vehicle over time (which
could include factors such as tire inflation, engine
compression, or valve wear), the brand and/or octane
number of the gasoline used, or possibly even the
weather conditions that have been recently experienced.
These factors represent potential sources of variability in
the system.
 The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking
• An engineer may be concerned with a specific
instrument that is used to measure sulfur monoxide in
the air during pollution studies. If the engineer has
doubts about the effectiveness of the instrument, there
are two sources of variation that must be dealt with. The
first is the variation in sulfur monoxide values that are
found at the same locale on the same day. The second is
the variation between values observed and the true sulfur
monoxide that is in the air at the time.
 The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking
• In the problems discussed above the statistical methods
used involve dealing with variability and in each case
the variability to be studied is that encountered in
scientific data. If the observed product density in the
process is always the same and is always on target, there
would be no need for statistical methods. If the device
for measuring sulfur monoxide always gives the same
value and the value is accurate (i.e., it is correct), no
statistical analysis is needed.
 The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking
Engineering Example

• The dot diagram is a very useful plot for displaying a

small body of data - say up to about 20 observations.
• This plot allows us to see easily two features of the
data; the location, or the middle, and the scatter
or variability.
 The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking
Engineering Example

• The dot diagram is also very useful for comparing

sets of data.
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking
Engineering Example

• Since tensile strength varies or exhibits variability, it is

a random variable.
• A random variable, X, can be model by
X=+
where  is a constant and  a random disturbance.
The Engineering Method and Statistical
Thinking
The constant remains the same with every measurement,
but small changes in the environment, test equipment,
differences in the individual parts themselves, and so
forth change the value of random disturbance. If there
were no disturbances, random disturbance would always
equal zero and X would always be equal to the constant
However, this never happens in the real world, so the
actual measurements X exhibit variability. We often
need to describe, quantify and ultimately reduce
variability.
Collecting Engineering Data

Three basic methods for collecting data:

– A retrospective study using historical data
– An observational study
– A designed experiment
 Collecting Engineering Data

Retrospective Study
A retrospective study would use either all
or a sample of the historical process data
archived over some period of time
 Collecting Engineering Data

Observational Study
An observational study simply observes
the process of population during a period
of routine operation.
 Collecting Engineering Data

Designed Experiments
• In a designed experiment the engineer makes
deliberate or purposeful changes in the
controllable variables of the system or process,
observes the resulting system output data, and
then makes an inference or decision about which
variables are responsible for the observed
changes in output performance.
 Collecting Engineering Data

• Engineers apply physical and chemical laws

and mathematics to design, develop, test,
and supervise various products and
services.
• Engineers perform tests to learn how things
behave under stress, and at what point they
might fail.
 Collecting Engineering Data

• Engineers apply physical and chemical laws

and mathematics to design, develop, test,
and supervise various products and
services.
• Engineers perform tests to learn how things
behave under stress, and at what point they
might fail.
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

A mechanistic model is built from our underlying

knowledge of the basic physical mechanism that relates
several variables.
Example: Ohm’s Law
Current = voltage/resistance
I = E/R
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models
if we performed this measurement process more than
once, perhaps at different times, or even on different days,
the observed current could differ slightly because of small
changes or variations in factors that are not completely
controlled, such as changes in ambient temperature,
fluctuations in performance of the gauge, small impurities
present at different locations in the wire, and drifts in the
voltage source. Consequently, a more realistic model of
the observed current might be
I = E/R + 
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

An empirical model is built from our engineering and

scientific knowledge of the phenomenon, but is not
directly developed from our theoretical or first-
principles understanding of the underlying mechanism.
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models
Example of an Empirical Model
Suppose we are interested in the number average
molecular weight (Mn) of a polymer. Now we know
that Mn is related to the viscosity of the material (V),
and it also depends on the amount of catalyst (C)
and the temperature (T ) in the polymerization
reactor when the material is manufactured. The
relationship between Mn and these variables is

Mn = f(V,C,T)
say, where the form of the function f is unknown.

where the ’s are unknown parameters.

1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

In general, this type of empirical model is called a

regression model.

The estimated regression line is given by