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Lesson 5 Sampling Distribution
Lesson 5 Sampling Distribution
BUSINESS STATISTICS
Make
Make Onthe
On thebasis
basisofof
generalizationsabout
generalizations about observationsofofaa
observations
thecharacteristics
the characteristicsof
of sample,aapart
sample, partofofaa
aapopulation...
population... population
population
Biased
People who have phones Sample Biased, unrepresentative
and/or cars and/or are
Digest readers. sample drawn from
Democrats
people who have cars
Republicans
Population and/or telephones and/or
read the Digest.
Estimators
•• The
The sample
sample mean,
mean, XX ,, isis the
the most
most common
common
estimator of
estimator of the
the population
population mean, mean,
•• The
The sample
sample variance,
variance, ss22,, isis the
the most
most common
common
estimator of
estimator of the
the population variance, 22..
population variance,
•• The
The sample
sample standard
standard deviation,
deviation, s,s, isis thethe most
most
common estimator
common estimator ofof the
the population
population standard
standard
deviation, ..
deviation,
•• The
The sample
sample proportion,
proportion, p, ^p, is the most common
is the most common
estimator of
estimator of the
the population
population proportion,
proportion, p. p.
X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X
X X X X
Sample points
Sample mean (X )
P(X)
5 0.125 0.625 0.5 0.25 0.03125 0.1
6 0.125 0.750 1.5 2.25 0.28125
7 0.125 0.875 2.5 6.25 0.78125
8 0.125 1.000 3.5 12.25 1.53125
0.0
1.000 4.500 5.25000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
X
E(X) = = 4.5
V(X) = 2 = 5.25
SD(X) = = 2.2913
P(X)
0.046875 0.093750 -2.5 6.25 0.292969 0.05
0.062500 0.156250 -2.0 4.00 0.250000
0.078125 0.234375 -1.5 2.25 0.175781
0.093750 0.328125 -1.0 1.00 0.093750
0.00
0.109375 0.437500 -0.5 0.25 0.027344
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
0.125000 0.562500 0.0 0.00 0.000000
X
0.109375 0.546875 0.5 0.25 0.027344
0.093750 0.515625 1.0 1.00 0.093750
E ( X ) X 4.5
0.078125 0.468750 1.5 2.25 0.175781
0.062500 0.406250 2.0 4.00 0.250000
0.046875
0.031250
0.328125
0.234375
2.5
3.0
6.25
9.00
0.292969
0.281250 V ( X ) 2X 2.625
0.015625 0.125000 3.5 12.25 0.191406
SD( X ) X 1.6202
1.000000 4.500000 2.625000
P(X)
0.1
E( X ) X X
The variance of the sample mean is equal to the population variance divided by
the sample size:
2
V(X) 2
X
X
n
The standard deviation of the sample mean, known as the standard error of
the mean, is equal to the population standard deviation divided by the square
root of the sample size:
SD( X ) X
X
n
Irwin/McGraw-Hill Aczel © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
COMPLETE 5-14 fourth edi tion
BUSINESS STATISTICS
X ~ N (, )
n
Thismeans
This meansthat,
that,as
asthe
the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
samplesize
sample sizeincreases,
increases,the
the 0.4
samplingdistribution
sampling distributionof
ofthe
the 0.3
Sampling Distribution: n =16
Sampling Distribution: n =4
samplemean
sample meanremains
remains
f(X)
0.2
centeredon
centered onthe
thepopulation
population 0.1
Sampling Distribution: n =2
Normal population
mean,but
mean, butbecomes
becomesmore
more 0.0
Normal population
compactlydistributed
compactly distributedaround
around
thatpopulation
that populationmean
mean
Irwin/McGraw-Hill Aczel © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999
COMPLETE 5-15 fourth edi tion
BUSINESS STATISTICS
P(X)
, the
0.10
deviation ,
deviation the sampling
sampling 0.05
0.00
X
distribution of
distribution of the
the sample
sample mean
mean will
will
n=20
tend to
tend to aa normal
normal distribution
distribution with
with 0.2
mean and
mean and standard
standard deviation
deviation as as
P(X)
0.1
n
the sample
the sample size
size becomes
becomes large
large 0.0
X
(n >30).
(n >30). Large n
0.4
0.3
n: X ~ N ( , )
f(X)
For “large
“large enough”
enough” n:
0.2
2
For 0.1
0.0
X
-
Population
n=2
n = 30
X X X X
217 220 217 220
P Z P Z
15 15
100 10
P ( Z 2) 0.0228
25
20
15
Frequency
10
5.00 - 5.49
2.00 - 2.49
3.00 - 3.49
6.00 - 6.49
7.00 - 7.49
4.00 - 4.49
Range
Student’s t Distribution
IfIfthe
thepopulation
populationstandard
standarddeviation,
deviation,, ,isisunknown,
unknown,replace with
replacewith
thesample
the samplestandard
standarddeviation,
deviation,s.s. IfIfthe
thepopulation
populationisisnormal,
normal,the
the
X
resulting statistic:
resulting statistic: t
s
n
hasaattdistribution
has distributionwith
with(n
(n--1)
1)degrees
degreesof
offreedom.
freedom.
•• Thet tisisaafamily
The familyofofbell-shaped
bell-shapedand andsymmetric
symmetric
distributions,one
distributions, onefor foreach
eachnumber
numberofofdegree
degreeofof
freedom. Standard normal
freedom.
•• Theexpected
The expectedvalue
valueofoft tisis0.0. t, df=20
•• Thevariance
The varianceofoft tisisgreater
greaterthanthan1,1,but
but t, df=10
approaches11asasthe
approaches thenumber
numberofofdegrees
degreesofof
freedomincreases.
freedom increases. The Thet tisisflatter
flatterand
andhas
hasfatter
fatter
tailsthan
tails thandoes
doesthe
thestandard
standardnormal.
normal.
•• Thet tdistribution
The distributionapproaches
approachesaastandard
standardnormal
normal
asasthe
thenumber
numberofofdegrees
degreesofoffreedom
freedomincreases
increases
successesininnnbinomial
binomialtrials.
trials. IIttisisthe
the
0 .4
successes 0 .3
P(X)
numberof
number ofsuccesses,
successes,X,X,divided
dividedby bythe the 0 .2
0 .1
numberof
number oftrials,
trials,n.n. 0 .0
0 1 2
n=10,p=0.3
X 0.3
P(X)
0.1
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Asthe
As thesample
samplesize,
size,n,n,increases,
increases,the
thesampling
sampling X
distributionof
distribution of p approaches
approachesaanormal
normal n=15, p = 0.3
distributionwith
withmean
meanppand andstandard
standard
0.2
distribution
P(X)
deviation p(1 p)
deviation
0.1
n 0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 X
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 1415
15 1515 15 15 15 15 15 151515 1515 15 1515 ^
p
n 100
p 0.25
p p .20 p
P ( p 0.20 ) P
p (1 p )
p (1 p )
np (100 )( 0.25) 25 E ( p)
n n
p (1 p )
(.25)(.75)
0.001875 V ( p) .20 .25
.05
P z P z
n 100
(.25)(.75)
.0433
p (1 p ) 100
0.001875 0.04330127 SD ( p) P ( z 1.15) 0.8749
n
•• Desirable
Desirable properties
properties of
of estimators
estimators include:
include:
–– Unbiasedness
Unbiasedness
–– Efficiency
Efficiency
–– Consistency
Consistency
–– Sufficiency
Sufficiency
Unbiasedness
Anestimator
An estimatorisissaid
saidto
tobe
beunbiased
unbiasedififits
itsexpected
expectedvalue
valueisisequal
equalto
to
thepopulation
the populationparameter
parameterititestimates.
estimates.
Forexample,
For example,E(X)=so
E(X)=sothe
thesample
samplemean
meanisisan
anunbiased
unbiasedestimator
estimator
ofthe
of thepopulation
populationmean.
mean. Unbiasedness
Unbiasednessisisan
anaverage
averageororlong-run
long-run
property. The
property. Themean
meanof
ofany
anysingle
singlesample
samplewill
willprobably
probablynotnotequal
equalthe
the
populationmean,
population mean,but
butthe
theaverage
averageof
ofthe
themeans
meansof ofrepeated
repeated
independentsamples
independent samplesfrom
fromaapopulation
populationwill
willequal
equalthe
thepopulation
population
mean.
mean.
Anysystematic
Any systematicdeviation
deviationof ofthe
theestimator
estimatorfrom
fromthe
thepopulation
population
parameterof
parameter ofinterest
interestisiscalled
calledaabias.
bias.
{
Bias
Efficiency
Anestimator
An estimatorisisefficient
efficientififitithas
hasaarelatively
relativelysmall
smallvariance
variance(and
(and
standarddeviation).
standard deviation).
Consistency
n = 10 n = 100
Anestimator
An estimatorisissaid
saidto
tobe
besufficient
sufficientififititcontains
containsall
allthe
theinformation
information
inthe
in thedata
dataabout
aboutthe
theparameter
parameterititestimates.
estimates.
Thesample
The samplevariance
variance(the
(thesum
sumofofthethesquared
squareddeviations
deviationsfrom
fromthe
the
samplemean
sample meandivided
dividedby
by(n-1))
(n-1))isisan
anunbiased
unbiasedestimator
estimatorof
ofthe
the
populationvariance.
population variance. In
Incontrast,
contrast,the
theaverage
averagesquared
squareddeviation
deviation
fromthe
from thesample
samplemean
meanisisaabiased
biased(though
(thoughconsistent)
consistent)estimator
estimatorofofthe
the
populationvariance.
population variance.
E (s ) E
2 ( x x )
2
2
(n 1)
( x x )2
E
2
n
If only two data points and the sample mean are known:
x 14
x1=10 x2=12 x3=? x4=?
12 14 x x4 56
3
Thesample
The samplemean
meanisisaarestriction
restrictionon
onthe
thesample
samplemeasurements,
measurements,so so
aftercalculating
after calculatingthe
thesample
samplemean
meanthere
thereare
areonly
only(n-1)
(n-1)degrees
degreesof
of
freedomremaining
freedom remainingwith
withwhich
whichtotocalculate
calculatethe
thesample
samplevariance.
variance.
Thesample
The samplevariance
varianceisisbased
basedonononly
only(n-1)
(n-1)free
freedata
datapoints:
points:
s
2
(x x)
2
(n 1)
Example 5-4
AAcompany
companymanager
managerhashasaatotal
totalbudget
budgetof
of$150.000
$150.000totobe
becompletely
completelyallocated
allocatedtoto
fourdifferent
four differentprojects.
projects. How
Howmany
manydegrees
degreesofoffreedom
freedomdoes
doesthe
themanager
managerhave?
have?
xx11++xx22++xx33++xx44==150,000
150,000
AAfourth
fourthproject’s
project’sbudget
budgetcan
canbe
bedetermined
determinedfrom
fromthe
thetotal
totalbudget
budgetand
andthe
theindividual
individual
budgetsof
budgets ofthe
theother
otherthree.
three.For
Forexample,
example,if:
if:
xx1=40,000
1=40,000 xx2=30,000
2=30,000 xx3=50,000
3=50,000
Then:
Then:
xx4=150,000-40,000-30,000-50,000=30,000
4=150,000-40,000-30,000-50,000=30,000
Sothere
So thereare
are(n-1)=3
(n-1)=3degrees
degreesof
offreedom.
freedom.
Freque ncy
20
Histogram of C11 N = 200
10
Midpoint Count
0.25 1 *
0.30 5 ***** 0
0.35 11 ***********
0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75
0.40 27 ***************************
C 11
0.45 36 ************************************
0.50 40 ****************************************
0.55 34 **********************************
0.60 21 *********************
0.65 18 ******************
0.70 6 ******
0.75 1 *
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sample Means (Class Midpoints)