Chapter 9

50
1000 40
q q
100 qi 30
10 to 20
E.L. E.L.
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 Np
t

Decline Curve Analysis

Causes of Decline
Methods of Analyzing Decline curve
Decline curve Analysis Terms
Decline curve Analysis Equations
Analyzing Decline Curves using Type Curves
 Decline Curve Analysis Cont’d

This consists of plotting of production history such that the

type of behavior exhibited can be Characterized and
projected into the future.

Basic Assumption
Factors that affected production in the past will continue to
do so in future
Causes Of Decline
Changes in BHP, GOR, WOR, Condition in drilling area
Changes in PI
Changes in efficiency of vertical & horizontal flow mechanism
Decline Curve Analysis Cont’d

Methods of Analyzing Decline Curves

Mathematical: Use only Equations
Graphical: Straight line Extrapolation
Type Curves
Decline Curve Analysis Terms
A. Normal (Continuous) Decline Rate,b
dInq 1 dq
b 
dt q dt
q  qo e  b  t  t 0 
t
qo  q
Np   qdt  Npo 
b
o

If t is in years, we have annual

decline rate ba. If it is months, qo
bm.
Rate
Oil Rate
ba = 12bm

Npo
Cumulative Production
 Decline Curve Analysis Terms
Cont’d
B. Effective Decline Rate, d
qi  q q (unit time)
d  
qi q  beginning

q  qi (1  d)
“d” is a stepwise function and used commonly in practice. it is
expressed as a fraction.

(1-da) = (1-dm)12

C. Relationship Between b and d

e b   1  d
 Exercise No. 24

A well that came in at 1000stb/d has declined to

800stb/d at the end of first year.
Calculate the yearly and monthly:
Effective decline rates.
Continuous decline rates.
Solution To Exercise No. 24
Effective Decline Rate:
qi  q 1000  800
Monthly Decline, dm    0.2
qi 1000

Yearly, da  1   1  dm   1   1  0.2 12  0.931

Continuous Decline Rate:

Monthly Decline, b m   ln 1  dm    ln 1  0.2  0.223

Yearly, b a   ln 1  da    ln 1  0.931  2.674

General Decline Curve Analysis
Equations
1
1 dq
b   cq a
q dt
Where,
b = nominal decline rate
a = decline constant
c = constant

If : a =   Exponential Decline
= 1  Harmonic Decline
= 2  Hyperbolic Decline
Note:

‘a’ may vary from less than 1 to infinity

‘a’ may not be a constant
Field data may not follow expression
Field data may exhibit difference type of decline
in difference time ranges depending on
controlling factors
 Exponential Decline
(Constant Percent Decline)

b 
1 dq
q dt
(a = )

q  qi e bt

b
log q  log q i  t qi
2. 303
b
slope, m  cycle / time
2.303
Log q
This implies:

t
 Exponential Decline Cont’d
Time Elapsed Between two Different Rates
1 q1
t 2  t1  ln
b q2
t2 and q2 may be abandonment time and rate.

Cumulative Production Equation

q  qi  bNP
This implies: qi
Slope, m=b
Note: q
ba = 1-e-ba
da = annual effective decline rate Np
ba = annual nominal decline rate
Many field data fit the exponential decline equatrion
 Hyperbolic Decline
Note: 1 dq
1
b   -cq a
q dt
1
b1  q1  a
 
b2 q
 2 Determining b

 b1  1  q1 
log   log 
b
 2 a q
 2 Slope at point i = -b/2.303
Log q
b1 q i
log log of vs 1 is straight line
b2 q2

t
 Hyperbolic Decline Cont’d
Difference points are chosen on the curve and their ‘b’ calculated
Take any ‘b’ (say b1) as base & make a log-log graph
The form of the log-log graph is shown in the following figure….

Non-hyperbolic decline Hyperbolic decline

Slope = 1/a

Partial hyperbolic decline

log (b1 /b)

log (q1 /q)

Other Hyperbolic Decline Equation
At any time, the rate is given as:
qi
q
a
 bi t 
1 
 a  
Remaining Life to Abandonment:
 1 
a  qi a 
ta      1
bi  qa  
 
Cumulative production:
  b t 
 a  1 qi  q 1  i  
NP   
 a  1  bi   a 
  

  1 a 
t 
 a  qi   b i  
Np   1 1 
 a  1  bi   a  
 
  

 Harmonic Decline
Rate at any time:
qi
q
1  bi t
 log q  log qi  log 1  b i t 

Remaining life:
1  qi 
ta    1
bi  qa 

Cumulative Production:
qi
Np  ln 1  b i t
bi

1 bi
log q  log q i  Np
2. 303 a i
 TYPE CURVES
• Type curves are graphical representation of theoretical
response derived from Solutions of flow equations.
• They are used for Parameter estimation.

Procedure For Decline Curve Analysis:

1. Plot log q Vs t on log– log tracing paper with the same scale as
type curve.
2. Move vertically and horizontally over type curve until a match is
obtained with one of the curves in the type curves.
3. Trace the matched curve to read future production.
 Procedure For Decline Curve
Analysis Cont’d
4. Choose a match point and calculate decline curve constants as
follows:
 qt  t od
i) qi  
q 
 ii ) D i 
 od m t
iii). Read ‘b’ from matched curve

5. Define decline equation as

 1 
q(t)  1 b 
  ; for b  0
qi  1  bD i t 
 

q(t) 1
 ; for b  0
qi e Dit
 NOTE:
1. All curves coincide at t Dd ≤ 0.3

2. Any data existing before t Dd = 0.3 will appear to be

exponential decline regardless of true value of b
3. At early time when nature of decline is not obvious,
select “b” as follows:
a. b = 0 (exp.) if reservoir is highly under saturated
b. b = 0 (exp.) for gravity drainage with no free surface gas
c. b = 0.5 for gravity drainage with no free surface gas
d. b = 0.667 for solution gas drive if a graph of average
pressure versus cumulative production is linear
e. b = 0.333 for solution gas drive if a graph of square of the
average pressure versus cumulative production is linear
Effect of Change in Backpressure
If the bottom hole flowing is Pwf1 and the production obtained from
decline analysis is q1, the rate will change if the bottom hole flowing
pressure changes.

The new rate, qnew, resulting from a change of bottom hole pressure
from Pwf1 to Pwf2 can be calculated using the following equations

P  Pwf 2 
q  q1  wf 1 
 Pi  P wf 1 

q new = q 1 + Δq
 Remarks
Type of decline obtained when production is from
individual well, lease or a group of wells will be the
same if:
1. Lease or field has fairly uniform reservoir properties
2. “a” is similar for each well
3. All wells have been on decline at similar terminal well
bore pressure Pwf for a sufficient period of time to reach
pseudo steady state
4. Wells are draining same reservoir

You cannot start decline analysis unless the well is on

decline. Adding the time when a well is really not on
decline (i.e. producing at constant rate) distorts
analysis.
To obtain good result, a lot of data are required.
 Exercise No. 25
Rate – time data from a lease producing from sand A in
Choba is given below:
Time months Monthly Production
Rate, qo, BOPM
0.5  28200
6.5 15680
12.5 9700
18.5 6635
24.5 4775
30.5 3628
36.5 2850
42.5 2300
48.5 1905
54.5 1610
60.5 1365
66.5 1177
72.5 1028
 Exercise No. 25
1. using the type curve matching period, predict the
production rate at 78.5 month and 90.5 month
2. With match point, evaluate q i, D i and b. using
equation, calculate abandonment time if the
abandonment rate is 10 STB/day. Also forecast at
78.5 using equation
3. Using the same data, assuming the well had
produced for 100 months at constant rate before
going on decline, re graph the data and obtain a
match point. That is, add 100 months to your
times in the data before re graphing. Explain the
disparity between this and results obtained in (1)
END OF CHAPTER NINE