The History and Progression of Technology

and Our Digital Future

Acceleration
Studies
Ten Tech Systems and Eight Skills for Adaptive Leaders
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

The Society International

September 2014  San Jose, CA

John Smart, President,

Acceleration Studies Foundation
johnsmart@accelerating.org
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation  We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes
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our universe contains both:

1. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that
we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and
creative paths (many of which will fail) and
2. Convergent and predictable developmental constraints
(initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain
aspects of our long-range future and
 Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
– Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
– Increasing technological autonomy, and
– Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-
digital interface.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Strategic Vision:
What’s Your Theory of Change? Of Progress?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Good theories of change include values, and an idea of progress.

My bias: I’m in a group of scholars who study complex systems from

• Evolutionary “evo” variation,
• Computational “compu” selection, and
• Developmental “devo” optimization approaches.
More at:

EvoDevoUniverse.com
Bury, 1920
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Evolution, Computation, and Development:
Three Drivers and Two Patterns Found in All Complex Systems

Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Utility
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Computation
Adaptation/Selection
Partial predictability/optimization

“Trees” “Funnels”
Diversifying, Local Unifying, Universal

Chance Necessity
Evolution Development
Unpredictable/ Predictable/
Not optimized Optimized

The Structure of Evolutionary Theory, Gould, 2002, p. 1052

Los Angeles The Plausibility of Life, Kirschner & Gerhart, 2005, p. 219
New York Evo Devo Universe?, Smart, 2008, p. 18
Palo Alto What Technology Wants, Kelly, 2010, p. 123 © 2013 Accelerating.org
 Possible, Preferable, and Probable Futures
Three Types of Foresight Management
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation Strategy,
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Analysis, Planning

Innovation, Ideation Forecasting, Investing,

Design, Entrepreneurship Risk Mgmt., Law & Security
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto Smart, The Foresight Guide, 2014
 Evolution vs. Development:
Understand it in Life, Understand it in Society
Acceleration
Studies Two ‘genetically identical’ twins:
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Almost all local features are unique.

Evo: Almost all local processes (thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas,
behaviors) are unpredictably unique in each twin.
Devo: A few systemic processes are predictably the same.
Key Lessons:
• Both evo and devo processes at work in people, orgs, society, technology.
• 95% of our genes are evolutionary (creative, unpredictable, bottom up).
Los Angeles • Only 5% of them are developmental (constrained, predictable, top-down).
New York
Palo Alto
 The “95/5%” Evo/Devo Ratio: 5% Devo
Most Change is Bottom-Up
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation Nearly all (perhaps 95%) of the decisions and
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events that create or control complex systems
appear to be bottom-up evolutionary processes.
Only a small critical subset (~5%) are top-down,
hierarchical, developmental processes.
95% Evo
Planning and policy leadership often forgets this. Roughly 20X More Change is
Bottom-Up than Top-Down
Examples:
▪ Almost all genes in an organism create evolutionary variety vs. a special
subset (3-5%) that form the developmental toolkit.
▪ Almost all thoughts in an organism are unconscious, vs. ~5% conscious.
▪ Almost all behaviors of an indiv. are environmental reactions vs. plans.
▪ Almost all decisions & actions in an org. are “out of control” vs. planned.
▪ Almost all social innovation occurs in economic markets vs. by govt policy.
Los Angeles ▪ Almost all new IT prods & services empower network nodes vs. hierarchies.
New York
Palo Alto
(personal computers, email, web, smartphones, wearables)
 Funnels (Development, Attractors)
Are the Fewest, and the Hardest to See
Acceleration
Studies In Chemistry:
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit  Carbon (“organic”) chemistry (vs. silicon, boron, etc.) for life
 Amino acids, purines, pyrimidines, pre-lipids as cell precursors
 RNA as enzyme and code for protein architectures
In Biology:
 Universal pattern modules in multicellularity
 Antifreeze molecules in northern and southern polar fish
 Eyes, body plans, limbs, joints, wings, fins, emotions
 Bilateral symmetry, binocular vision, tetrapod form
 Placental vs. marsupial mice, moles, rabbits, wolves, tigers, etc.
 Prehensile limbs, opposable thumbs, anthropoids
In Society:
 Mimicry memetics (languages) behavioral → gestural → oral → written
 Moral codes, property, capitalism, rights, democracy, conflict control
In Technology:
 Neolithic tools (rock, club, spear). Later: lever, rope, wheel, pulley
 Metallurgy, chemistry, electronics, internal combustion engines,
 Math, science, computers, internet, cell phones… Next?
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto Convergent Evolution, 2011; Better Angels of Our Nature, 2011; What Technology Wants, 2010 © 2012 Accelerating.org
 TINA Trends: Predictable
Social, Econ, Political, and Tech Trends
Pierre Wack, Shell Scenarios Group, 1970’s:
Acceleration
Studies TINA = “There Is No Alternative” (to the Trend, On Avg)
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Some Examples:
• Increasing Total Information, Comp., Communication, Specialization
• Increasing Biological Capacities (Life-Like Abilities) of Tech
• Increasing Central Government Powers vs. Individual Powers
• Increasing Democratization and Global Interdependence
• Increasing Indiv. Rights (Women, Child, Relig, Minority, Gay)
• Increasing Social Justice and Sustainability (Envir. Justice)
• Increasing Total Energy Use/Capita, Saturating Indiv. E. Use/Capita
• Increasing Total Wealth, Social Safety Nets, Leisure Time
• Increasing Space, Time, Energy, and Matter Density & Efficiency of Tech
• Decreasing Avg. Violence (Incr. Capacity, yet Incr. Regulation of Violence)

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto Simon 1996 Pinker 2012 Morris 2013 Reese 2013
 Technology is
Becoming Biological
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Leader’s Challenge:
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Enabling Staff to do Bottom-Up Ideation, Intelligence, and Innovation.

Theory: Imagine More Bio-Inspired Machines
Training: Know Your Current Platforms (ScanEagle)
Data Points: Autonomous RC planes, Fowler flaps, bird behavior.
Question: What would landing like a bird do for small Naval UAVs?
- How feasible is this? What are TRLs for gating tech?
- How to quantify benefits vs. other real options?
- Who can best support a study? Prototype?
- Who has the best R&D competency for this?
- How/where to best do procurement for this?

Quadcopters and Superior Urban OODA

Israel-Lebanon 2006
Los Angeles Boeing ScanEagle
New York Need: Battery Depot Robotics
Palo Alto
Naval ISR Platform
 Weak, Bottom-Up AI:
Connective, Collaborative and Cognitive Technologies
Acceleration
Studies 2020 Conversational Interface, Wearable Web, Global English
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
(NLP, Collab. Filtering, Predictive Analytics, IoT/QS, SNs, Connect.com)
Crowdlearning, Values-Mapped Web (Hangouts, MOOCs, iTV)
2025 Crowdworking, Groupnets (AssemblyMade, Kaggle, oDesk, LinkedIn)
Crowdfunding/spending/lobbying (Kickstarter, Bitcoin, JOBS act, Avaaz)
2030 Avatars, Cybertwins, Worktwins, Lobbytwins (Smart 2003; Page 2008)
(Info Consumption, Collaboration, Purchases, Voting, Referendums)

$500 FREE
From Moto X to Wristphone Cognitive Diversity
From RS to Global English From Helpouts to Groupnets

Sociopolitical Impacts:
 Political swingback from plutocracy (since 1970) to democracy (for a while)
 Social justice initiatives, basic income guarantee. Canada’s Mincome experiment
(Forget 2008), Switzerland and EU’s 2013 referendum, US last?
Los Angeles
New York “The Conversational Interface,” Smart, 2003, Metaverse Roadmap, Smart, 2007; “The Town with No Poverty,”
Palo Alto Forget, 2008; The Difference, Page 2008; The Filter Bubble, Pariser, 2012
 What is Your Foresight Learning Community?
Do Any of these US Trends Surprise You?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
1. SF Bay Area now “Center of Global Innovation Universe” (Money, Freedom)
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
2. Rise of Renting/Sharing Economy (including Cars, Homes)
3. Texas Growing (Immigrants and Exiles, Shale Boom, Austin is Cheap)
4. Cities Growing (64 to 81% 2000-2010), Suburbs are adding Walkable Cores
5. Rise of Robots/Automation (“47% of US jobs vulnerable next twenty years”)
6. Energy Costs Flat (Natgas) Renewables Surging (Solar up 270% since 2005)
7. Wearable Technology Accelerating (Fitbit, Smartwatch, etc.)
8. Everyone’s Living Solo (27% of Households, 61% Prev Married) Micro apts?
9. Everyone Dates Online (Algos Match Over People since 2011, Match.com)
10.End of Male College Degree (now) and Employment (by 2016) Dominance
11.US K-12 Continues to Underperform Globally, Overspecifies Activity
12.Education Price Increases Have Peaked, Student Aid Down 20% since 2007
13.Obesity Still Growing (27% Obese, 36% Overweight, 36% Normal)
14.Gun and Drug Control Efforts Both Failing
15.Old Hollywood and Old TV Are Dying (Streaming, SmartTV future)
16.Stagflation (1970’s Revisited. US Growth Now Below Japan)
17.US Economic Inequality and Political Polarization Both Still Growing
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto The US 20: Twenty Huge Trends for America’s Next Decade, Rob Wile, Business Insider, Nov 2013
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Accelerating Change
Science and Technology Grow Faster and Smarter
Every Year, Creating Both Disruption and Opportunity

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar:
U-Shaped Curve of Complexity Development
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto © 2011 Accelerating.org
 The Developmental Spiral
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
 Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago
 Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs
 Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs
 Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs
 Empires Age 2,500 yrs
 Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770)
 Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950)
 Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020)
 Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050)
 Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060)
 Tech Singularity ≈ 2060
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto © 2010 Accelerating.org
 The Universe is on a Superexponential Curve:
Energy (Phi, Φ) Flow in Dissipative Structures
Acceleration
Studies
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Energy Flow Density (Φ)

Substrate (ergs/sec/gm)

Global AI of the 21st C 10^12+

Pentium II of the 1990's (10^11)
Intel 8080 of the 1970's 10^10
Modern Engines 10^5 to 10^8
Culture (human) 500,000 (10^5)
Brains (human) 150,000 (10^5)
Animals (hum. body) 20,000 (10^4)
Ecosystems 900
Planets (Early) 75
Stars 2
Galaxies 0.5

Los Angeles Free energy flow density values in

New York
Eric Chaisson,
Palo Alto
Cosmic Evolution, 2001 hierarchically emergent CAS.
 World Economic Performance:
Another Superexponential Curve
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation GDP per capita in West Europe,
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from 1000-1999 A.D.

- This curve is smooth and
superexponential on a very long
time scale.
- Note the “knee of the curve”
(state switch) occurs in 1850, at
the Industrial Revolution.
- Next, growth gets so fast it goes
vertical “wall of curve” in 1950.
- Such supergrowth signals
birth of a whole new stable
system (geo  bio  techno)
- Each way faster than prior sys.
Los Angeles
New York Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD,
Palo Alto Angus Maddison, 2007
 The J Curve and the
“Tech Singularity”
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

 First-Order Components are

Growth-Limited Hierarchical
Substrates (S and B Curves)
 Second-Order
Hyperbolic Growth
Emergence Singularities
and a Limit Singularity
Examples:
▪ Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar
▪ Chaisson’s FERD (Complexity)
▪ Global Economic Performance
▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics
▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation

Los Angeles
Accelerating
New York Socio-Technological Evol.: From Ephemeralization & Stigmergy to the Global Brain, Francis Heylighen, 2007.
The
Palo Larger
Alto Context for Moore’s Law: Superexponential Long-term Trends in Information Technology, Nagy et. al., 2010
 Four Alternative Growth Scenarios:
Jim Dator’s “Four Futures”
Acceleration  Right wing
Studies
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Continuation
(Economic Issues)
Limits & Discipline
(Social Issues)
 Left wing
Continuation
(Social Issues)
Limits & Discipline
(Economic Issues)
 Up wing
Transformation
(Selective Issues)
Key Images/Stories/Policies With Respect to Change  Down wing
First two are Evolutionary (“Innovation”). Decline & Collapse
Los Angeles Second two are Developmental (“Sustainability”). (Selective Issues)
New York
Palo Alto Dator, Jim. 1979. Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Academic Press. © 2010 Accelerating.org
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Technological Change
Ten Areas of Strategic Opportunity,
Disruption, and Threat

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Ten Areas of Technological Change
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
1. Information Tech
2. Nanoscience and Nanotech
3. Resource Tech
4. Engineering Tech
5. Cognitive Tech LE Drones (Phantom Eye, Scan Eagle)
6. Social Tech Disruptive Naval ISR Platforms
7. Health Tech
8. Economic Tech
9. Political Tech
10. Security Tech

Unmanned Surface Vehicle (Piranha)

Naval ISR, Escort, Antipiracy Platform
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto Smart, Strategic Lookahead in Technological Change (and Books For Further Reading), 2014
 Leaders Must Use the Strongest Levers,
Nanotech and Infotech, and mind the Hype
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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"Give me a lever long enough, a fulcrum,

and place to stand and I will move the world."
- Archimedes, 250 BCE

Fenn 2008

Los Angeles
New York Gartner Hype Cycle
Palo Alto
 Moore’s Law and Mead’s Law, or
the Law of Miniaturization Efficiency (LME)
Acceleration
Studies
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Gordon Moore Carver Mead

Moore’s Law. In1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that computer
chips (processors, memory, etc.) were doubling in complexity every 12-24
months at constant unit cost.
If this continued (and it did) on average, affordable computing capacity
(memory, input, output, processing) grows by 1000X (ten doublings:
2,4,8,16,32…. 1024) every 15 years. A recipe for continual emergence!
Mead’s Law. In 1967, Carver Mead discovered a Law of Miniaturization
Efficiency. Computer chip efficiencies increase by the cube (power of three) of
the reduction in scale. As transistor density goes up linearly in two
dimensions, this exponentially increases speed (less distance to travel)
Los Angeles computational power (speed × density), decreases power consumption,
New York
Palo Alto increases system reliability, and decreases cost per unit. Wow. © 2010 Accelerating.org
 The Race to Inner Space:
Civilization’s Hidden Strategic Objectives
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Infotech/Simulation - Virtual Inner Space - Evolution
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit  “As Intelligence Rises, Thinking Becomes More Adaptive Than Acting”
 Adult humans no longer act in novel ways, they think in novel ways.
 Simulations allow “ephemeralization” (far less mass/energy per action)
 Rise of scientific simulations. IPCC. NASA Solar System Simulator
 Telepresence outcompetes traveling for perception
 Telerobotics/haptics outcompetes traveling for action
 Google maps, sensors, geoweb, parallelized GPUs: visual cortex for the web.
 Machine sim data doubles every 2 years. Human sims grow far slower.

Nanotech/Engineering - Physical Inner Space - Development

 “There’s Plenty of Performance at the Bottom.”
 Fission 1,000X more E than chem. Fusion 1,000X more E than fission
 Fuel cells store 100,000X more E/mass than chemical batteries
 Synthetic catalysts increase reaction speeds & yields 1,000-1,000,000X
 Programmable synapses use 10^6 less E per comp. than neurons
 Photonic crystal lasers 10^6 more E efficient than other microlasers
 Single step efficiency jumps in macro (human) space are always far less
Los Angeles
New York
The Transcension
Palo Alto Hypothesis, J.Smart, 2011; The Future of Scientific Simulations, C. Vidal, 2008
© 2011 Accelerating.org
 1. Information Technologies
“IT is Becoming Ubiquitous and Brain-Like”
Acceleration
Studies - Computing and Networks
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit - Internet of Things (IOT, MIOT)
- Shared Pictures and Simulations
- Conversational Interface and Agents
- Big Data and Predictive Analytics
Siegel 2013 Brynjolfsson 2014 Stibel 2009

In 2006 Watson got 13% of Jeopardy! Q’s correct.

By 2011, Watson got 90% of Q’s correct.
Brain-Like Engrg (Modular, Parallel, Weighted)
• 2800 processors, working in parallel
• ~100 text search methods
Apple’s Siri on • ~100 language processing methods
iPhone 4, 2011 IBM Watson Jeopardy Challenge, 2011 • 550 predictor variables ( “weights”)
• Trained on 5.7M Q/A pairs and 10M articles.

Leader’s Challenge
 What type of computers, communication devices, platforms, networks, sensors,
databases, predictive analytics, or pattern recognition would add value for your
Los Angeles team? How can you improve your team’s IT intelligence, COTS use, R&D,
New York procurement, and performance measurement (ROI) every week?
Palo Alto
 2. Nanoscience and Nanotech
“Nano is faster, stronger, thriftier than humanspace”
Acceleration
Studies - Small-Scale Physics
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit - Nanoenergetics, Fission, Fusion
- Nanochemistry
- Nanocomputing
- Nanodevices
Sloane 2012 Von Weizsacker Ratner 2002
2009

Battery Energy Densities:

Lead Acid 30 Wh/kg (8X worse)
NiMH 80 Wh/kg (3X worse)
Li-Ion 250 Wh/kg
Exponential Zn-Air 1084 Wh/kg (4X better)
Li-Air 5200 Wh/kg (20X better)
Performance Curves Li-Air Theor. 12000 Wh/kg (50X better)
Come from Nano

Leader’s Challenge
 Where would an 500% (~5X) improvement in efficiency or performance in a
physical process, sensing, computation, or comm system make the most
Los Angeles difference for your team? A 1000% (10X) improvement? How can you get it?
New York
Palo Alto Advanced Energy Materials, 1(1), pp. 34-50, 8 Dec 2010. Figure 1. Courtesy Ramez Naam.
 3. Resource Technologies
“Periodic Crises, Long-Term Abundance”
Acceleration
Studies - Energy
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit - Water
- Food
- Population
- Ecosystem and
Other Resources
CSP+Flash Desalination:
Water for Africa, Diamandis 2012 Eccles 2010
Energy for Europe

Amine Scrubbers for CO2 Capture

• 1930’s Technology
• Piloted in Mongstad, Norway in 2012
• 20-30% energy cost (Amine cycling, CO2 comp.)
• 70-90% of CO2 is captured
• Will not be implemented without govt. mandate
(like almost all big safety or envir. upgrades) “Cultured” Meat
Likely Late 2010’s

Leader’s Challenge
 Who is responsible for resource acquisition and sustainability on your team?
Los Angeles How will you track, report, and reward more sustainable resource ROI?
New York
Palo Alto Promises and Pitfalls of Carbon Capture, Fellet, ArsTechnica, 11.28.12.
 4. Engineering Technologies
“Cities & Machines are Automating, Dematerializing”
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
- Smart Cities, Networks, Vehicles
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- Automation and Robotics
- Dematerialization and Efficiency
- Greentech and Pollution
- Transportation and Logistics 26K Robot
(Postharvest
Glaeser 2011 Despommier 2010 Zhang 2013 Automation)
(City Gardens) (Family Farms)
Walkable Cities
• Hub & Spoke
• Underground Pkg
• Greenbelts
• Bike trails (19mph)
• Vert. Farms
• HS Rail
• Country Dacha
Google’s Robotic Cars Lit Motors C-1 (Self-Balancing) Leuven, Belgium

Leader’s Challenge
 How would you improve the “ethics” of autonomous drones and robots for
Los Angeles urban use? What would a good “ethical architecture” for bots look like? On
New York your team, who is responsible for safety? For speed & cost to capability?
Palo Alto
 5. Cognitive Technologies
“Conversational Interface to the Wearable Web”
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
- Conversational Interface & CyberTwins
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- Crowdlearning (Teacherless Ed)
- Global English (Workforce Growth)
- Wearable Web (Augmented Intell)
- Education Reform (Finland Model)
Next IT’s Virtual Agents
Schmidt 2014

Google Glass Wristphone $500

(Augmented Intell) concept, 2007 Finland is #1 in
FREE STEM and Civics Ed.

Leader’s Challenge (50/50 Ed. Model)

 How do you improve online training processes and performance measurements
Los Angeles on your team? Improve use of desktops, laptops, tablets, mobiles, wearables?
New York How do you figure out the 50% core, and 50% freedom in job and IT training?
Palo Alto
 6. Social Technologies
“Values-Mapped Web, Groupnets, and Wikinomics”
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
- Social Freedoms and Privacy
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- Evidence-Based Behavior
- Values-Mapped Web (Valuecosm)
- Groupnets (Learning, Perf., Therapy)
- Wikinomics & Gamification (Coll. Intell.)
Lessig 2004 Shirky 2011 Nissenbaum2009

Why Groupnets Will Help

Inglehart-Welzel Page 2008 Criminals and the Mentally Ill:
Cultural Values Map There are 50X More Normals
than Those Who Need Help.
Leader’s Challenge
 How can you facilitate Knowledge Creation, Knowledge Management, Ad-hoc
Los Angeles Teams, Ideation, Strategy, Critique, Innovation, and a DIY, Entrepreneurial ethic
New York
Palo Alto
in your org? How do you make it more freedom oriented and evidence-based?
 7. Health Technologies
“Quantified, Groupnet, Digital Health & Erooms Law”
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
- Quantified and Groupnet Health
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
- Digital Wellness and Longevity
- Public Health and Disease Control
- Medical Biotech, Implants, HMIs
- Big Pharma and Molecular Medicine
Topol 2011 Angell 2004
Eroom’s Law (Moore’s Backwards): Number of new FDA-
approved drugs per $US Billion of R&D has halved every 9 years
since 1950.
Wearable & Implantable Sensors
for Addiction Medicine
• Exist today (insulin pumps)
• Allows State Provision of Illicit Drugs
• Medically Monitored Tapering
• Nausea Option for Behavior Change
Dexcom GlucMonitor2013 • Eliminates an 800B Criminal Industry
Leader’s Challenge
 How digital, quantified and networked is your health and wellness system and
education? What incentives do you provide your team for healthy outcomes?
Los Angeles What are you doing for diseases of affluence (obesity, CHD, addiction, ADHD)?
New York
Palo Alto Diagnosing the decline in pharma R&D efficiency, Scannell et.al., Nat. Revs Drug Discovery 11,191-200, 2012
 8. Economic Technologies
“Tech Productivity, Wealth, Creative Destruction”
Acceleration
Studies - Accel. Technical Productivity (TP) is 70% of GDP Growth*
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit - Labor Productiv. is 20%. Finance is 10% of GDP Growth*
- US Leads in Freedom, Entrepreneurship, Innovation
- US Will Keep Same Ratio (25%) of Global GWP Pie
- If We Moderate Economic Inequality, Have Fair Incentives

GDP Per Capita

Toffler 2006 Lovins 2011 Stack 2013
Western Europe
1000-2000 C.E.
Leader’s Challenge
 In Econ Downcycle, how can you grow critical product or service performance
while also cutting operating costs 20% this year? How to get everyone knowing
Los Angeles
and growing your tech productivity? Labor and finance productivity?
New York
Palo Alto Robert Solow’s Neo-Classical Economic Growth Model, 1987
 9. Political Technologies
“Shrinking Knowl., Access, Represent., Wealth Gaps”
Acceleration
Studies - Adequate Political Capacity & Military Power
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit - Adequate Political Freedom and Representation
- Fair Rules and Laws, Sound Fiscal Mgmt
- Shrinking Disconnectedness (Barnett’s Gap)
- Shrinking Global Rich-Poor Divide (Kuznet’s Gap)
Barnett 2005 Acemoglu 2012

Democratic-Plutocratic Pendulum Economic Environmental

Kuznets Curve Kuznets Curve
Leader’s Challenge
 How can you get your team more represented, invested, and empowered to
Los Angeles make change? How meritocratic and fair are your policies? What is the size of
New York
Palo Alto
your internal pay and benefits gap? 10X, 50X? 500X?
 10. Security Technologies
“Transparency, Simulations, and Immunity”
Acceleration
Studies - ISR, Reciprocal Transparency (Anti-Corruption)
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit - Physical Security and Cybersecurity (Anti-Crime)
- Machine Ethics and Autonomy
- Simulations and Red Teams
- Redundancy, Resilience, & Immunity (Antifragility)
Brin 1998 Herman 2008

“Top Down” vs “Bottom Up” Transparency Simulations & Red Teams Schwartz 2012

Leader’s Challenge
 How can you empower and increase the bottom up (95%) monitoring and
transparency (sousveillance) by your team and stakeholders? How can you
Los Angeles simulate disruptions, problems, and opportunities ahead? Have strategies
New York
Palo Alto
ready to go in case of crisis (danger/opportunity)?
Acceleration
Studies
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Our Digital Future

How the Web and Individuals Will Both Get Smarter
Relative to Corporations and Governments
in Coming Decades, and Why That Matters

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 The Future of the Web (2007)
The Future of Internet TV (2010)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Smart et. al., 2007 (98 pp) John Smart, 2010 (48 pp)

Los Angeles http://metaverseroadmap.org/index.html

New York
Palo Alto
http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartJ-2010-HowTVwillbeRevolutionized.pdf
© 2010 Accelerating.org
 Five Generic Steps in Web Development
Metaverseroadmap.org
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Web 1.0 Read Mainly - Graphical UI Web
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Web 2.0 Read/Write/Participatory - Social UI
Web 3.0 3D/Video (iTV, VW, MW, AR,) - Metaverse UI Metaverse
Web 4.0 Semantic (Valuecosm) - Conversational UI
Web 5.0 Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain,
Tech and Social ‘Singularity’) - Cognitive UI Metahumanity
We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony
(iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking
(Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and
collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video
(YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second
Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin),
lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude, Layar).
Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA,
‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’).
This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction
process society has ever engaged in.
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org © 2010 Accelerating.org
 Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
 From 1996 to 2010, total internet users grew from 36 million to
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1.9 billion, or from 1% to 27% of the world.
 There were 1 billion PC’s (desktops, laptops, tablets) in use
globally in 2008, with a projected doubling to 2 billion by 2015, or
a compound AGR of 10% per year.
 From 1996 to 2006, U.S. online retail (B2C) e-commerce, a
proxy for the virtual economy, grew from 5 million to $95 billion,
with 2009 global compound AGR of 11% per year.
 By the end of 2011, 1 billion people, 16% of the world, is
projected to be on the web via smartphones, which grow at a
compound AGR of 14% per year.
 Facebook, the worlds leading social software, has grown to 600
million users (one out of every 11 people on the planet) in 7
years, a marginal AGR of 100% per year.
 Key Point: Think of the Virtual (Online, Metaverse) Economy
as the future, even more, much more, than “China as the future.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto © 2010 Accelerating.org
 Web 3.0 (The 3D/Video Web) is On the Horizon
Open Internet TV Will Be The Killer App of Web 3.0
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto © 2010 Accelerating.org
 Conversational Interface, Memeshows,
Cybertwins, and Valuecosm
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Codebreaking follows a
logistic curve.
Collective NLP may as
well.

Date Avg. Query Platform

1998 1.3 words Altavista Average spoken
2005 2.6 words Google human-to-human
2012 5.2 words GoogleHelp query length is
Los Angeles
2019 10.4 words GoogleBrain 8-11 words.
New York
mart, J. 2003.
Palo Alto The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.
 Global Digital Transparency:
Result of a Networked Planet
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever
typed. Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.

Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos,

movie clips, text messages, notes),
SenseCam and MyLifeBits (2003)
early examples of lifelogs, systems
for auto-recording, archiving
indexing, and searching all our
life experience, as it happens.

Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then

everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and
bandwidth makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed.
Los Angeles
Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all
New York this data begins turning into collective intelligence.
Palo Alto © 2010 Accelerating.org
 Virtual Space is Fastspace:
Mirror Worlds, Virtual Worlds, AR, Lifelogs
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Our free report:

MetaverseRoadmap.org

The Sims

• Rapid, interactive, multi-user

Google Earth + Street View • Collaboration environments
(user-created content)
• Optimization environments
(GIS, automation, AI)
• More fun than older digital
media (games & VWs outsell
Synthetic Worlds, 2005
movies, now and forever).
Los Angeles Second Life
New York • Still Bandwidth- and CPU-
Palo Alto limited (not yet “hyperreal”). © 2010 Accelerating.org
 Wearable Cellphones, Lifelogs, and AR
Acceleration
Studies
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Necklace phone
‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Nokia 2004)
(Vodafone 2006)
‘Carpal PC’ concept
(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)

Los Angeles First ‘Picturephone’ Flip Ultra (2007, $130)

New York iPhone (Apple 2007)
Palo Alto Top-selling camcorder.
 LED Screens, Half-Caves, and Game Tables:
Telepresence, Gameification, & Serious Games
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Half-Cave, 2010
DriveSharp, 2010

Los Angeles
New York Milo and Kate, Microsoft 2010 Dexcom glucose monitor, 2010
Palo Alto © 2009 Accelerating.org
 Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent
Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2010? In 2020?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation Nonverbal and verbal language in
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parallel is a much more efficient

communication modality.

Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps

only 1/3) of info in face-to-face
human conversation is nonverbal.

“Working with Phil” in Apple’s

Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Los Angeles Ananova, 2000
New York
Palo Alto © 2010 Accelerating.org
 Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A Coevolution Between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology.
A time when:
▪ Complex things can “speak our language.”
▪ Our technologies become very responsive to
our needs and desires.
▪ Humans and machines are intimately
connected, and always improving each other.
▪ We will begin to feel “naked” without our
computer “clothes.”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto © 2010 Accelerating.org
 Personality Capture: A Long-Term
Development of Intelligence Amplification
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming

Los Angeles technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
New York
Palo Alto © 2010 Accelerating.org
 Your Cybertwin (Digital Self):
Helping You Now, Helping Others Later
Acceleration
Studies Note the conflict between these two statements:
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”
“I enjoy saving stories about my life for my children.”

Prediction:
▪ When your mother dies in 2040,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
▪ When your best friend dies in 2060,
your digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Cybertwins, as our digital agents, will engage in
successive approximation, gentle integration,
subtle capturing and transition… of our selves.
When we can shift our conscious perspective
between our electronic and biological
components, the encapsulation and
transcendence of the biological should feel like
only growth, not death. Greg Panos and his Digital Mom
PersonaFoundation.org
Los Angeles We wouldn’t have it any other way.
New York
Palo Alto © 2010 Accelerating.org
 Circa 2030: The Valuecosm
A More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future
Acceleration
Studies
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 Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
 Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
 Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
 Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s
- Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
Los Angeles
- Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media
New York
Palo Alto © 2010 Accelerating.org
 Better Work and Collaboration:
Symbiont Networks
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
When we have an early Metaverse 2.0, lifelogs, and pervasive
broadband connectivity, we can expect…
 150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page
2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.
 A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps
everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).
 Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with
symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals.
Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.
 New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off
for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).
 Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill)
and performance enhancement.
 Fantastic new subcultural diversity (transhumanist symbionts,
Amish symbionts, etc.)
Los Angeles
Page,
New York Scott. 2008.
The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and©Societies,
Palo Alto 2009 Accelerating.org
 Better Decisionmaking and Self-Actualization:
The Emerging Digital Self
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation Some Challenges - particularly early:
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 Data Security and Privacy
 Predictive Marketing and Profiling
 Debt Slavery and Overconsumption
 New Forms of Crime and Fraud
 Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community)
 Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?)
 New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?)
Some Opportunities - particularly later:
 Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?)
 Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks)
 Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety
 Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier)
 Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced)
 Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’)
 Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto © 2009 Accelerating.org
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Adaptive Foresight
Eight Skills of the Do Loop

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Kirton’s Three Traits
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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Adaptors
(Strategists & Planners)
Preferable Futures

Innovators-Creators Protectors-Predictors
(Innovation & Creativity) (Forecasting & Security)
Possible Futures Probable Futures
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto Kirton, Adaption-Innovation: In the Context of Diversity and Change, 2003. and KAI Inventory
 Be a Bridge Builder –
Nurture Kirton’s Three Worker Types
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Kirton, 2003
KAIcentre.com

Bridgers
Preferable Futures
KAI Testing
“Guiding Teams”

Innovators Adaptors
Possible Futures Probable Futures
“Doing Things Differently” “Doing Things Better”
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Innovation, Strategy, and Forecasting
Three Types of Foresight Skills
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto Smart, The Foresight Guide, 2014
 Gallup’s Four Strength Clusters
Acceleration
Studies
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Foresight Doing
1. Strategic Thinking 2. Executing 3. Influencing 4. Relating

“Knowing Where to Go” “Getting Somewhere” “Getting There With Others” “Keeping Others on Your Team”

● Analytical ● Achiever ● Activator ● Adaptability

● Context ● Arranger ● Command ● Developer
● Futuristic ● Belief ● Communication ● Connectedness
● Ideation ● Consistency ● Competition ● Empathy
● Input ● Deliberative ● Maximizer ● Harmony
● Intellection ● Discipline ● Self-Assurance ● Includer
● Learner ● Focus ● Significance ● Individualization
● Strategic ● Responsibility ● Woo ● Positivity
● Restorative ● Relator

Los Angeles
New York Rath, StrengthsFinder 2.0, 2007 and Gallup Strengths Center
Palo Alto Rath and Conchie, Strengths-Based Leadership, 2009
 Eight Competencies of the
Adaptive Leadership Model
Acceleration
Studies Learn
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit 1. Learning
Scanning, Training, Intelligence, Research (Inspire Investigative Thinking)
See (Foresight)
2. Innovation & Creativity – Possible (Inspire Divergent Thinking)
Initiative, Ideation, Alt Futures, Innovation
3. Forecasting & Security – Probable (Inspire Convergent Thinking)
Forecasting, Predictive & People Analytics, Risk Mgmt, Security
4. Strategy & Planning – Preferable (Inspire Shared Vision / Adaptive Thinking)
Visioning, Strategy, Metrics, Planning
Do
5. Executing - Product (Be Effective) (Review) (Learn)
Operations, Sourcing, ICT, Knowledge Mgmt
6. Influencing - Market (Be Credible)
Sales, Marketing, CRM, Community
7. Relating - Team (Encourage the Heart) (Do) (See)
Management, HR, Performance, Ethics, Culture
Review (Aftsight)
Learn-See-Do-Review
8. Reviewing (Challenge the Process) (and OODA) Cycle
Los Angeles Critiquing, Quality, Adjusting, Unlearning
New York
Palo Alto The Leadership Challenge, 2012; The Practice of Adaptive Leadership, 2009; Boyd, 2004, The Foresight Guide, 2014
 Adaptive Leadership: The Do Loop
Acceleration
Studies

The Do Loop
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• Know Your History and • Divergent,

Current Condition Convergent,
and Adaptive
Thinking

Learn
See

Do
Review

• Stay On Target, or Get • Get

Back On Target Somewhere,
With Others,
and Keep Them
Happy

Los Angeles
New York Smart, The Foresight Guide, 2014
Palo Alto
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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Adaptive Leadership
Keeping Your Edge

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 How Do You Keep Your Edge?
Acceleration
Studies “Great Inputs”
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit • Staff Learning and Development (L&D)
• Tech Literacy (Yourself and Your Peer Group)
• Foresight (Forecasting, Competitive Intelligence, Risk Mgmt, etc).

“Great Outputs”
• What is your Vision? “Leader’s Intent”? “Desired End State”?
• Ideation, Innovation, Collective Intelligence Building (Platforms, Wikis, Retreats)
• Strategy, Metrics, Planning
• Action, Integrity, Critical Review

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Knowledge Mgmt, Ideation, and
Innovation Platforms Now Critical Solvers

Acceleration Problems
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Problem-Solving
Marketplaces

Benefit-Cost Analysis
to Relatively Rank Ideas

Started in 2005.
Where’s your wiki?

Those submitting ideas need:

1. Leadership by Example
2. Manager Support and Incentive (Institutional support can be nonexistent!)
3. Facilitated Exercises, “Innovation Games,” equivalent of Wargames.
Los Angeles
New York 4. Benefit-Cost Analysis at the end. Innovation is 95% bottom up.
Palo Alto
 DARPA and Google: Client-Centric, Network-Centric
Models for Tech Innovation and Intelligence
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
DARPA
• Orientation to Radical Innovation
• Decent Technical Intelligence
• Autonomy and Freedom
• Acceptance and Review of Failure
• Small and Flexible Units
• Flat (3 level) Organization
• Constant Talent Rotation (4-6 yr terms)

Google adds..
• Measurement Culture
• Feedback/Learning Culture
• Analysis/Intelligence Culture
• Client (End-User) Orientation
• Automation Orientation
• Network/Platform-Centric (Tools first)

Los Angeles Google’s R&D budget is $6B for 2012, DARPA’s is $3B.
New York
Palo Alto Top 20 IT firms R&D budget >$30B. “It’s a COTS World.”
 How Do You Build Your Best Small, Expert Teams?
How Do You Keep Your Suppliers Competitive?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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Small Teams can:

-- Rapidly innovate and adapt
-- Operate below the radar (stealth)
-- Have superior urgency and purpose
-- Ignore convention and pursue vision
-- Get hand-picked excellence and resources
-- Be expendable, experimental, exploratory

Supply Management Excellence:

-- Learn from Industry Benchmarks
-- Large and Small Suppliers
-- Suppliers Deliver Overlapping Functions
-- Performance-Based Budgets
-- End-Client Feedback Drives Metrics
Los Angeles
-- Balance Supplier Pruning and Redundancy
New York
Palo Alto
 Innovation:
Procurement Strategies
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
Unpopular Truths:
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• Small firms are much more Innovative than large firms.
• DoD Acquisitions Programs have been going
backwards in Speed to Capability since 1950’s. Small firms
• Tech companies and asymmetric actors have made innovate best.
exponential gains in Speed to Capability at same time.
Lessons:
• “Speed to Capability” is the critical performance measure
for all DoD procurement programs. Lower must die.
• Procurement must include diversity (small firms).
• Diversity needs periodic culling or it gets wasteful.
• DARPA, ONR, SPAWAR, NAVAIR, NAVSEA, etc. need
their own competitions and innovation platforms.
Just as true in the
Example: Predator MQ-1. First prototype developed on DARPA defense industry.
contract (1984) by Leading Systems Inc., Abraham Karen, Israeli Air
Force chief designer and US immigrant. LSI went bankrupt 1990,
bought by Gen. Atomics. LSI did all primary innov. Common story.
Los Angeles
New York
We
Palo Won’t
Alto Get What We Don’t Measure, Marv Langston, Former US Deputy Asst. Sec. of Defense, Dec 2012.
Acceleration
Studies
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Extended Lifespan
Thinking About Your Legacy

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Extended Lifespan:
Some Ways We Can Now Live Beyond our Biological Life
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

1. Children (Genes and Memes)

2. Works (Memes and Temes)

3. Experiences (Lifelogs)
4. Simulations (Agents)

5. Memories (Brain Preservation)

The Fountain, 2006
6. Identity (Brain Preservation)
Would you wish to live longer than your biological life? If not, why not?
One def. of meaning in algorithmic info. theory: Information that endures.
Would living (creating, adapting, discovering) longer than your biological life
Los Angeles
NewbeYorka more “meaningful” life? By the above definition, it would.
Palo Alto
 Extended Lifespan: Simulations
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
• Your Cybertwin “twin” is an agent that has a values
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and personality map of you, and increasingly
represents and assists you in all things digital (what to Greg Panos and his
read, social engagements, purchases, voting, etc.). Virtual Mom
PersonaFoundation.org

• Will you let your twin do things for you when you are
asleep? Busy? How many twins will you manage?
Who gets to use and improve them after you’re dead?

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Extended Lifespan:
Memories or Identity
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Adoption Factors
• Cost
• Validation (provably stores memories)
• Simplicity
• Reliability
• Have my friends done it?
Cryonics
$90,000 and up. Hail The Pioneers,
Plastination 1967 to Today
$20,000 to… $10,000? $5,000?
Simple, dependable… verifiable?

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 The Plastination Process
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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1. In or near a Hospital, Hospice, or Home:

• Emergency Glutaraldehyde Perfusion (EGP),
for Protein fixation
2. In a Centralized Facility, over months:
• Brain is removed, placed in a bath.
• Lipid fixation
• Vaccum Dehydration
• Acetone Infiltration
• Plastic Infiltration

Dr. Carlos Baptista, President

Internat’l Soc. for Plastination
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
 Social Benefits of Plastination?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit At 100K, We May Get Many Social Benefits
Now, Regardless of Future Payoffs
A populace with significantly greater:
• Science-orientation
• Progress-orientation
• Future-orientation
• Preservation-orientation
• Sustainability-orientation
• Truth and Justice-orientation
• Community-orientation The Best Book You Will
Read this Decade!

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Acceleration
Studies
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Discussion
What Do You Think?

Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto