FUTURES THINKING

AND SCENARIO PLANNING II

NURAIZAH BINTI MOHD ZAM

Senior Training Consultant

Centre for Management and Leadership luster for Leadership and Executive Development
National Institute of Public Administration
MEGATRENDS
• Trends are an emerging
pattern of change likely to
impact how we live and work.
• Megatrends are large, social,
economic, political,
environmental or
technological change that are
slow to form, but once in
place can influence a wide
range of activities,
processes and perceptions,
possibly for decades. They
are the underlying forces
that drive change in global
markets, and our everyday
lives.
 WHO:
Aging Society = 7% > 65 YO

In 2020:
34.3 million population
2.4 million aged > 65

Star Online (3 Nov 2018)

26 April 2017
FTSP Intermediate
• Futures Studies
• FTSP Models
• Future Wheel
• Future Triangle
• CLA
• Different Approaches to FTSP
• CFS
• MyForesight
• INTAN
Prof. Sohail Inayatullah
• Born in 1958 in Lahore, Pakistan
• Visiting Professor at the Graduate Institute
of Futures Studies, Tamkang University,
Taipei Taiwan
• Adjunct Professor at Macquire University,
Sydney & University of the Sunshine Coast
• Member of the World Future Society
• Fellow of the World Futures Studies
Federation
• Metafuture.org
Futures wheel
• A method to graphically
visualize the direct and
indirect future consequences of
a particular change or
development.
• It was invented by Jerome C.
Glenn in 1971
• The Futures Wheel is a way of
organizing thinking and
questioning about the future.
• A kind of structured
brainstorming
Jerome C. Glenn (1994)
Futures Wheel’s
Steps
1. Identify the change -
trends, events,
issues and problems
2. Identify direct
impact (1st order)
3. Identify indirect
impact(2nd order, 3rd
order and so on)
4. Analyse Implications
5. Identify actions

Introduced by Jerome C. Glenn in 1971

Futures Wheel Advantage
• Futures Wheel is suitable to
be use where we want to
explore future the
implication of our action and
decisions
• Futures Wheel help us to:
• Anticipate more than one order
of consequences into the future
(Usually 1st order consequences
until 4th order consequences)
• Foresee the outcomes that will
result from changes that you
make
• Identify other implication
lurking in other pathways
• Map out all logical
consequences
• Visually take-stock of multiple
future pathways
 HOW DO WE
Step 1: Identify the Change USE FUTURES
Write the change that you need to WHEEL?

consider in the center of a piece of

paper, or on a flipchart. This could be
an event, trend, issue, problem, or
possible solution.
Step 2: Identify Direct, First-Order
Consequences
Now, brainstorm possible direct
consequences of that change. Write
each consequence in a circle, and
connect it from the central idea with
an arrow. These are "first-order" https://www.mindtools.com/pages/
consequences. article/futures-wheel.htm
 HOW DO WE
Step 3: Identify Indirect, Second- USE FUTURES
Order Consequences WHEEL?

You now need to brainstorm all the

possible "second-order"
consequences of each of the first-
order (direct) consequences that
you wrote down in Step 2, and add
them to your diagram in the same
way. Then, repeat this by identifying
the third-order consequences,
fourth-order consequences, and so
on. Remember that consequences
are not necessarily negative. https://www.mindtools.com/pages/
article/futures-wheel.htm
 HOW DO WE
Step 4: Analyze Implications USE FUTURES
Once you've completed all of the WHEEL?

levels of the Futures Wheel, you'll

have a clear picture of the possible
direct and indirect consequences
resulting from the change. List
these.
Step 5: Identify Actions
Where the possible consequences
that you've identified are negative,
think about how you'll manage them

https://www.mindtools.com/pages/
article/futures-wheel.htm
Futures Wheel
- Example of
Consequences
of 20% Budget
Cuts
Futures Wheel Exercise
Choose an issue which you are
passionate to explore its first to
fourth order consequences

Define the issue clearly

Start to use the Futures Wheel to map

out the first to fourth order
consequences

Use the FTSP Intermediate Template

Document

19
Futures Triangle
• Used to identify plausible futures that
emerge in riptide between 3 pushing and
pulling corners, namely:
• Pull of the Future
• Push of the Present
• Weight of the Past
• It tries to map out plausible future
landscape of a particular emerging issue /
problem / challenge / phenomenon
 Cont’ Futures Triangle
Images of the future - What
would be the future image that
Pull of the Future we could foresee for this issue
/ problem / challenge /
phenomenon?

Plausible
Push of the Present/ Future Weights of Past
Drivers of Change

Barriers that inhibit change and prevent us

Present forces that are currently pushing
change forward. These pushes are trends,
drivers, technologies and decisions that
make new things happen
from progressing towards a particular pull
or push of the future i.e organisational
structures, policies, laws, regulations,
procedures, knowledge structures or
historical narratives
 Cont’ Futures Triangle
Pull of the Future
*The future we
Modern Industrial City, Global Smart Cyber
create through our
City, Healthy Green Multicultural City)
in/action results from
three main factors. City of
the
Push of the Present/
Drivers of Change Future Weights of Past

1. Automated City - homes, office, public transport are
interconnected.
2. Eco-friendly living. Clean and renewable energy usage
becomes the norms. Minimizing household carbon
footprints efforts are in place.
3. People have become more and more individualistic.
Total disregard to community cleanliness.
4. People began to miss a simpler & stress free life. No
more longing for material wealth. Heathy mind and
body is the priority
1. Present mind set of Industrial City is still dominant.
2. Insufficient fund to roll out and maintain Smart City
initiatives
3. Unhygienic and low class mentality. Old habit die hard.
4. Green Renewable are still relatively expensive. Some
nations still believe they will be unaffected by climate
change
5. Most people are still attracted by material wealth, fame
and fortune.
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Definition :
A future-oriented methodology that seeks to
question and unpack the assumptions, ideologies,
worldviews, system of understanding, myths and
metaphors that are embedded in our images and
statements of the present and the future.

“…not in predicting the future but in creating

transformative spaces for the creation of
alternative futures.”

“…focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of

futures – in contrast to techniques such as
emerging issues, analysis, scenarios and
backcasting – and more on the vertical dimension…of
layers of analysis.”

(Sohail Inayatullah)
 Official/ accepted public description of the issue
PROBLEM/LITANY Obvious and superficial phenomena (headlines, observational events,
quantitative trends. Most visible. Appearing disconnected. Rarely questioned,
little analysis.

Technical interpretation of quantitative data

Systems analysis, feedback, interconnections between STEEP factors. Structural links
SYSTEMIC between individual and society. Data is critique but paradigm in which the issue is
framed is not questioned.

Assumptions and paradigms

WORLDVIEW Deeper assumptions, values and ideologies that support/ legitimise the litany
and systemic levels.

Unconscious, emotive beliefs

MYTHS/METAPHORS Folk sayings, slogans, ancient bedrock stories. Gut or emotional experience.
Visual images – may not be words for it.
 PROBLEM/LITANY “What’s in your face?”
Your everyday lived experience; actions and reactions; adaptations, news, fb
status/updates, internet memes, tweets

“Who/ what is responsible for this?”

SYSTEMIC Laws, rules and regulations, terms and conditions, processes, policies, technical
explanations, norms, structures

“What arguments are made to justify those systems?”

WORLDVIEW Winning the ‘minds’ – intellectualy justifications, political ideology, social &
cultural norms, values systems, folks saying, deep emotional responses

“The stories/ lies we tell ourselves”

MYTHS/METAPHORS Our final vocabulary. Winning the ‘hearts’ – stories we tell ourselves, fairy tales,
founding myths, archetypes, basis of identity
 PROBLEM/LITANY What changes will I observe?

Generating alternative scenarios

How will the systems within my
SYSTEMIC organisation function within this story?

What are the transformed assumptions,

WORLDVIEW values and ideologies that my
organisation will need to adopt?

What is the new mythos or legend for my organisation?

MYTHS/METAPHORS
 Example of CLA : How success is currently defined?

Being a
Still strongly No. of Faster, Everything Achieving
PROBLEM/LITANY
doctor/
believe in “likes” or better, must be “1st class
lawyer/
5Cs ”follows” cheaper “first class” honours”
banker

Power of Govt Academic

Paper Societal and
Meritocratic advertising emphasis streaming;
qualification parental
SYSTEMIC = better life expectations
system e.g. birds’
nest
on “GDP
growth”
school
rankings

Money and Driven by Anxiety i.e.

Everything “Because Obsession Homo-
success will Singapore is insecure
is a my parents with bench- geneity is
WORLDVIEW competition
buy
said so” marking strengh about its own abilities
happiness and accomplishments

Don’t miss Every

the train i.e. Survival of generation No free
MYTHS/METAPHORS opportunities the fittest better than
Kiasu
lunch
Size matters
are fixed the next
Internet
hyper
connectiv
ity has
become a
social
norm?

CLA Workshop on Internet

hyperconnectivity become
a social norm by Pupul
Bisht, Master of Strategic
Foresight and Innovation,
OCAD University Ontario
Canada November 2017
 “Now, using Causal
Layered Analysis (CLA),
try to unpack one
issue/problem that your
group are passionate to
understand and explore in
order to transform its
present condition to a
much better condition in
the future”
Singapore Centre of
Strategic Futures (CSF)
Futurist Oliver Freeman
Approaches
STEPS QU.E.S.T EXPLANATION

1. QU. Question about the Future and its possible different pathways
of the future

2. E. Explore - What are the factors out there that impact our
organization in the Future?

3. S. Set of Scenarios are formulated and discussed

4. T. Transformation - Identify where are the domain that we could

change and formulate suitable strategies to work
chronologically towards the future
 1. Pre-Scenario 3. Post-Scenario
2. Scenario Building
Building Building
a. Objective a. Horizon scanning (TIC- a. Sign-post/ early
b. Outcome PESTELV) warning system
c. Team b. Drivers of change b. Opportunities & threats
d. Scope of study c. Verification (IUA) c. Future products and
e. Work plan d. Models? services
f. Fund e. Narrative d. Strategies
g. Stakeholder f. Review

6-12 Months
 Multi
Drivers
Double
Drivers
Organiza-
Integrated
tional

Archetype

Source: Sohail Inayatullah (2007); Jamais Cascio (2010) and Jeremy Bentham (2013)