CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

Strategic Foresight
Toolkit
A quick reference on the basics of strategic foresight.
The Center for Engaged Foresight's
Strategic Foresight Toolkit
About the Toolkit
This toolkit focuses on providing users with a quick reference on the basics of strategic foresight. It gives an overview of
strategic foresight and guidance on using foresight tools and methods applicable to planning and policymaking. Included
in the toolkit are a brief introduction to the Engaged Foresight Approach and tools to use for each phase in the framework.
Engaged Foresight is a customizable framework developed and applied for over a decade to advance anticipatory
thinking and increase the aptitude of communities, organizations, and institutions to anticipate and respond to emerging
challenges of the 21st century.

The Center for Engaged Foresight is a credentialed member and

supporter of these global futures communities.
 CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

Strategic Foresight Toolkit

www.engagedforesight.com
Copyright 2023 Center for Engaged Foresight
All rights reserved. No part of this guide may be reproduced or used in
any manner without prior written permission of the copyright owner.
About the Toolkit
About the Toolkit
This toolkit focuses on providing users with a quick reference on the basics of strategic foresight. It gives an overview of
strategic foresight and guidance on using foresight tools and methods applicable to planning and policymaking.
Included in the toolkit are a brief introduction to the Engaged Foresight Approach and tools to use for each phase in
the framework.
Engaged Foresight is a customizable framework developed and applied for over a decade to advance anticipatory
thinking and increase the aptitude of communities, organizations, and institutions to anticipate and respond to
emerging challenges of the 21st century.

About the Center for Engaged Foresight

The Center for Engaged Foresight (CEF) is a premier global futures thinking and strategic foresight design and
innovation company. CEF has advanced a spectrum of anticipatory approaches, processes, and systems. CEF has
collaborated with the best in the strategic foresight field in designing and implementing cutting-edge events and
projects that apply foresight in governance, research, and policymaking.
To learn more about CEF and its unique customizable offerings, visit engagedforesight.com

Usage Guidelines
This toolkit is the intellectual property and copyright of the Center for Engaged Foresight. We encourage the
reproduction and use of these tools for non-commercial, attribution-only, and non-derivative foresight education
purposes.

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 About the Toolkit
What is
Strategic
Foresight?
Strategic Foresight is an individual and organizational
competency and practice to use the future. It involves a
series of futures processes that enables us to utilize the future
for planning, policymaking, innovation, and strategy
development. For practitioners, strategic foresight is an
operating system that allows us to scope, administer,
manage, and embed foresight in the organization.
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The Engaged Foresight Framework
The Engaged Foresight Framework is an action-learning-based strategic foresight approach that focuses on the
following four key foresight phases highlighting key professional foresight competencies and capabilities:

Source: Center for Engaged Foresight.

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The Engaged Foresight Framework
Phase 1. Questioning and Discovering
How should we frame an issue, idea, or policy in a futures context?
The first phase is questioning and discovering. Questioning leads to discovery and this enables us to propel
future back conversations. Discovery is the act of sensing wicked problems and opportunities.

Phase 2. Futuring and Transforming

How do we identify baselines, and alternatives, and commit to a transformed future?
This phase underscores the value of scanning, creating alternative futures, and deepening future worlds to
transform our ways of knowing the future today.

Phase 3. Designing and Adapting

How do we enable organizations to bridge the vision with the present and generate options and
strategies?
This is where transformed futures are simulated to gain clarity and a better understanding of how it feels like
to live in the future.

Phase 4. Weaving of Insights and Acting

How do we consolidate the insights, build consensus and implement the most compelling next steps?
This is where we consolidate the insights, reflect on them, and decide on what is the most compelling and
what are the most compelling next steps to change and transform today.

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Tools in a Nutshell CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

PHASE TOOL USE

Questioning and Rip Van Winkle Allows participants to question the future, and to question their
01 Discovering Exercise assumptions about the future

Maps the three dimensions of the future – pushes of the present,

Futures Triangle pulls of the future and weight of history. Used to analyze plausible
futures.

Emerging Issues Identify and explore barely visible issues before they become a
Analysis concern, trend, or problem.
Get familiar with

Foresight 02
Futuring and
Transforming
Dreams and
Disruptions
A scenario-building card game that uses time horizons, drivers of
change, leadership, and movements, as well as disruptors to create

Tools Card Game a stress-tested, anti-fragile vision of the future.

Included in the toolkit are Alternative Scenario method to imagine what “continued growth,” “collapse,”
a brief introduction to the Futures Method “disciplined,” and “transformed” futures would look like.
Engaged Foresight
Approach and tools to Causal Layered Method unpacks and deepens the vision of transformation by
use for each phase in the Analysis analyzing different levels of reality.
framework.
Designing
03 and Adapting
Backcasting Identify implementing mechanisms to achieve transformed futures.

Weaving of Open Space

04 Insights Conversation Lays the foundation for values-based foresight and action.
and Acting and Reflections
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Rip Vanthe
About Winkle Exercise
Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

What is it?
A foresight method developed to undefine and imagine potential and probable futures. The process involves
questioning assumptions about the future and identifying the most compelling questions that might impact the future
given a time horizon. This uses the story of Rip Van Winkle, who went to sleep and woke up X years in the future with no
idea of the world around him.

When do I use this?

At the beginning of a foresight workshop or session to frame or set the context of a futures conversation.

How does it work?

Choose a topic you want to explore and a future time horizon. 40-60 mins 6-10 people
Ask questions to an imaginary person you have met in this Flip Chart or Cartolina/Manila Paper
future about your topic in your selected time horizon. affixed to a wall
Permanent Markers
Use the INSPECT++ model (Ideas, Nature, Society, Political,
Different Colored Sticky notes
Economic, Cultural, Technological, Ethical, Spiritual) to Rip Van Winkle Worksheet
categorize the questions and ensure you have a diverse set
Identify a future time horizon
of questions for the future of your topic. Identify a topic for group discussion
Identify the most compelling questions and have a Identify a futures tool for question categorization
and analysis (STEEPLE V, PESTLE, TPESTRE,
conversation about your desired, undesired, and expected INSPECT++, etc)
answers.
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Rip Vanthe
About Winkle Exercise
Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

What are your questions about the futures of _____ in the year ____?
Classify them using the categories below, and feel free to add your own!

IDEAS NATURE SOCIETY POLITICS ECONOMY

CULTURE TECHNOLOGY ETHICS SPIRITUAL _______

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Futures Triangle
About the Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

What is it?
The futures triangle is a futures scanning method to map the pulls of the future, pushes of the present, and weights of
history of your selected topic. It helps contextualize and understand the forces of change that influence how the future
might play out. The futures triangle helps us understand how the past, present, and future converge in shaping the
future.

Source:
Center for Engaged Foresight;
Sohail Inayatullah.
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Futures Triangle
About the Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

When do I use this?

In the early stages of a foresight process or workshop, to identify the drivers of change from the past, present, and
future, and the resulting plausible futures of the selected topic.

How does it work?

Choose a topic you want to explore and a future time horizon.
40-60 mins 3-10 people
Map the pulls of the future: what are the hopes, dreams,
preferred and disowned images of the future?
Flip Chart or Cartolina/Manila Paper affixed
Map the weights of history: what are the barriers to change to a wall
and the things that are holding us back? Permanent Markers
Different Colored Sticky notes
Map the pushes of the present: what is happening now and Futures Triangle Worksheet
popular now? What are the trends that are shaping the
Identify a future time horizon
future?
Identify a topic for group discussion
Use the different identified drivers to have a conversation
about the plausible future of your topic.
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Futures Triangle
About the Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

Futures of: Year:

PULLS PUSHES WEIGHTS

What are the plausible futures?

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Emerging
About theIssues Analysis
Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

What is it?
Emerging Issues Analysis (EIA) is a futures scanning method used to identify weak signals of change that might
impact the future of your topic. Unlike trends, emerging issues are provocative ideas from the fringe. They may emerge
as problems or opportunities in the future.

Source:
Center for Engaged Foresight;
Graham Molitor; Jim Dator;
Diana Cheong, Ivana Milojević
and Redhuan Rajak.
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Emerging
About theIssues Analysis
Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

When do I use this?

IIn the early stages of a foresight process or workshop, to spot weak signals in the earliest possible stage of
emergence.

How does it work?

40-60 mins 3-10 people
Choose a topic you want to explore and a future time horizon.
Identify and brainstorm possible emerging issues of your
Flip Chart or Cartolina/Manila Paper
topic. affixed to a wall
Collectively visualize how these emerging issues may impact Permanent Markers
Different Colored Sticky notes
your topic as it enters the mainstream.
Emerging Issues Analysis Worksheet
Test if the identified emerging issues are barely visible or have
become a trend, by googling them. If it is hardly known or has Identify a future time horizon
Identify a topic for group discussion
very little empirical evidence, then it must be an emerging
issue.
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Emerging
About theIssues Analysis
Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

Futures of: Year:

IDEAS NATURE SOCIETY POLITICS ECONOMY

CULTURE TECHNOLOGY ETHICS SPIRITUAL _______

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Dreams andToolkit
About the Disruptions CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

What is it?
Dreams and Disruptions is a scenario-building game that uses time horizons, drivers of change, leadership and
movements, as well as disruptors to create a stress-tested, anti-fragile vision of the future. The game incorporates
randomness, inclusion, and diversity of voices in emerging dreams of the future and overcoming disruptions. Values
and ethics, ethnicity, cultural, and spiritual aspects are integrated into the game to arrive at holistic and anti-fragile
scenarios.

When do I use this?

In the stages of a foresight process or workshop before developing scenarios, the game allows users to experience
scenario development.

How does it work?

Draw a card for the scenario archetype and future time horizon.
40-60 mins 3-100 people
Draw 3-4 drivers of change from different categories.
Build the initial narrative for your imagined futures scenario.
Flip Chart or Cartolina/Manila Paper
Draw a Leader or Movement card and write the scenario narrative for affixed to a wall
your imagined future and how it has changed because of this card. Permanent Markers
Different Colored Sticky notes
Draw a Disruption card and write the scenario narrative for how your
Dreams and Disruptions Virtual or
imagined future was impacted and how it overcomes the disruption. Physical Card Deck
Reflect on how the scenario was transformed by the Dreams and Disruptions Worksheet

leader/movement and disruption cards.

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Dreams and Disruptions CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

1. 3.
Archetype Year Drivers 2. 4.

Narrative

Leaders and Movements Disruption

Narrative Narrative
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Alternative Futures Method CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

What is it?
Scenarios are futuring tools that we can employ to help us reperceive the world around us. The Alternative Futures
Method are stories of alternative futures. This scenario archetype integrates the value of historical and cultural
narratives, geographical settings, and trends in creating alternative images of the future. The main idea behind the four
different broad scenarios is to illuminate the importance of pluralistic scrutiny of the future.

Continued Growth
This image of the future is based on the belief that there is the persistence of growth, and business
as usual is amplified into the future.

Collapse
An image of the future driven mostly by people’s fear of natural resource shortages, food shortages,
and climate change. Society is in a constant downward spiral.

Disciplined
The image of the future when people wish to preserve or restore places, processes, and values.

Transformation
The image of the future that anticipates and welcomes the transformation of all life – values,
institutions, relations, and worldviews.
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Alternative
About theFutures
ToolkitMethod CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

When do I use this?

To broaden the scope of future possibilities and analyze the effectiveness of a proposed policy in different
possible futures.

How does it work?

40-60 mins 3-8 people
Use your identified drivers of change as the scaffolding and core
elements of your futures scenario.
Flip Chart or Cartolina/Manila Paper
Work on one scenario at a time, emphasizing how your proposed affixed to a wall
policy will evolve or change in a continued growth, collapse, Permanent Markers
Different Colored Sticky notes
discipline, and transformation scenario. Dreams and Disruptions Virtual or
Craft the narrative and story of the policy’s alternative future Physical Card Deck
Scenario Writing Worksheet
scenarios.
Create a compelling scenario title for each futures scenario. Identify a future time horizon
Analyze the implication of your scenarios on the policy today. Identify a topic for group discussion
Identified drivers of change
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Alternative
About theFutures
ToolkitMethod CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

Futures of 1. 3.
Year Drivers
Archetype 2. 4.

Narrative

Narrative
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Causal
About Layered Analysis
the Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

What is it?
Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a group sensemaking tool to
unpack, expand, and deepen the causes and worldviews underlying
each alternative futures scenario. It is a futures technique that seeks
to open up analysis and conversations about transformative futures.
From superficial to subtle, the four layers of the CLA are:

Headlines
Litanies are those surface, easily verified comments or the official public
description or future of the issue. They are observational like events, trends,
diagnosed problems, and media spin.
Source: Center for Engaged Foresight; Sohail Inayatullah.

Systems
The system's causes are focused on social, economic, and political issues underlying the litany. It also covers structures, interrelationships, systems,
policy analysis, technical explanations, role of the state and interest groups on why the litany exist in the first place. This layer seeks to unpack the
systemic reasons that made the news headlines.

Worldviews
This is the big picture paradigm informing what we think our reality is. It includes culture, values, paradigms, and mental models of
how language frames the issue at hand. The task at this deeper level of analysis and imagining is concerned with the discourses and
worldviews that support and legitimize an issue.
Myths and Metaphors
The myth and metaphor is where the deep unconscious story emerges. It includes community archetypes, and visual images that
represent a deeper layer of reality. This level makes sense of the worldview under inquiry. The unconscious dimension of the issue is
explored and analyzed at this level.
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Causal
About Layered Analysis
the Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

When do I use this?

After building the different scenario archetypes, to deepen and understand the underlying causes, worldview, and
myths for each scenario needed for transformation.

How does it work?

Select the preferred scenario from the four alternative futures.
Use Causal Layered Analysis to uncover and understand the 60-120 mins 4-8 people
causes, worldviews, and myths of this preferred future.
Flip Chart or Cartolina/Manila Paper
From the preferred future, develop your transformed futures
affixed to a wall
scenario using CLA. Permanent Markers
Identify the Myth and Metaphor that best encapsulates the Different Colored Sticky notes
Causal Layered Analysis Worksheet
transformed future scenario.
Discuss the Worldviews that stem from the Myth and Metaphor. Identify a future time horizon
Describe the Systems that are made possible by these Worldviews. Identify a topic or scenario for group
discussion
Create a news Headline that you might see in this transformed Preferred future scenario of their topic
future scenario. of interest
Reflect on the implications of your transformed futures scenario on
the policy today.
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Causal
About Layered Analysis
the Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

Futures of 1. 3.
Year Drivers
Archetype 2. 4.

Headlines
Headlines

Systems
Systems

Worldviews
Worldviews

Myths & Metaphors

Myths & Metaphors
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Backcasting
About the Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

What is it?
Backcasting works backwards from a desired future to identify strategies, policies, and programs for the preferred
future to occur. It involves an imaginary movement backward step by step, in as many milestones as considered
necessary revealing the strategies to attain the preferred future from the present.

When do I use this?

After developing the desired transformed futures scenario, to identify the strategies necessary to attain it.

How does it work?

Starting from your transformed futures, move step-wise back in time 60-120 mins 4-8 people

to the present using defined intervals (3 years, 5 years, 10 years, etc).

Flip Chart or Cartolina/Manila Paper
Identify decisions, policies, strategies, plans, and actions to achieve affixed to a wall
the transformed futures. Permanent Markers
Backcasting Worksheet
Assess the risks and opportunities at each step.
Scrutinize and reflect on the backcasted strategies with an eye on Desired transformed futures scenario
Drawn backcasting diagram on flip
the future.
chart/ cartolina/manila paper
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Backcasting
About the Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

Futures of: Year:

Milestone # Year: Identified policies, events, projects, activities achieved

Identified risks and opportunities

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Open
AboutFutures
the Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

Conversation and Reflections

What is it?
Open Futures is a futures method used to weave the ideas, insights, and learnings derived from a futures project or
workshop. It is a reflective process of learning exchange that engenders meaningful conversations that usually take
place outside formal strategic foresight techniques and presentations.

When do I use this?

At the end of a futures process, project or workshop, to provide a space for reflection and introspection.

How does it work?

Discuss the gaps, strengths, and weaknesses of the foresight process 20-30 mins 2-20 people

Reflect on the learnings and takeaways from the foresight process

Flip Chart or Cartolina/Manila Paper
Identify how the foresight process has changed your view of your affixed to a wall
foresight project Permanent Markers
Open Futures Conversation Worksheet
Discuss the key insights and next steps of your foresight project
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Open
AboutFutures
the Toolkit CENTER FOR ENGAGED FORESIGHT

Conversation and Reflections

Gaps/Weaknesses Strengths Key Insights Next Steps
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References
About the Toolkit
Asian Development Bank. (2020). Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why
Foresight Matters for Policy Makers. Asian Development Bank.
Association of Professional Futurists, 2018. Foresight Competency Model, s.l.: s.n.
Bezold, C. (2009). Jim Dator's Alternative Futures and the Path to IAF's Aspirational
Futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(2), 123–134.
Cheong, D., Milojević, I., & Rajak, R. (2016). Trends and Emerging Issues:
Implications For Brunei Darussalam. CSPS Strategy and Policy Journal, 6.
Cruz, S.O. (2015). What is Futures Thinking? Why Futures Literacy- Center for
Engaged Foresight. https://engagedforesight.com/what-is-futures-thinking-why-
futures-literacy/
Cruz, S. O. (2013). Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Shoal. Journal
of Futures Studies, 18(2), 31–58.
Cruz, S. O. (2015). Alternative futures of global governance: Scenarios and
perspectives from the Global South. Foresight, 17(2), 125–142.
https://doi.org/10.1108/fs-05-2014-0030
Dator, J. (2018). Emerging issues analysis: Because of Graham Molitor. World
Futures Review, 10(1), 5–10. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756718754895
Dator, J. (2019). What futures studies is, and is not. Jim Dator: A Noticer in Time, 3–
5. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-17387-6_1
Futures playbook: Futures triangle. Aurecon. (n.d.).
https://www.aurecongroup.com/expertise/digital-engineering-and-
advisory/futures-playbook/futures-triangle
Futures thinking now: Drivers of Change and Futures Triangle. KnowledgeWorks.
(2020, December 17). https://knowledgeworks.org/resources/futures-thinking-
now-drivers-change-futures-triangle/
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Futures: liberating the pedagogical intellect (pp. 283–296). essay, Tamkang
University Press.
Inayatullah, S. (2007). Questioning the future: Methods and tools for organization
and societal transformation. Tamkang University.
Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1),
4–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810855991
Inayatullah, S. (2013). Learnings From Futures Studies: Learnings From Dator.
Journal of Futures Studies, 18(2), 1–10.
Inayatullah, S., & Milojević, I. (2015). Cla 2.0: Transformative research in theory and
practice. Tamkang University Press.
Inayatullah, S., Mercer, R., Milojević, I., & Sweeney, J. A. (2022). Cla 3.0: Thirty Years
of Transformative Research. Tamkang University Press.
Innergise Pty Ltd. (n.d.). (rep.). Causal Layered Analysis Canvas.
Institute for Alternative Futures. (n.d.). https://www.altfutures.org/
Miller, R. (2018). Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century.
Routledge Taylor & Francis Group.
Riedy, C., & *, N. (2021, October 25). The Futures Triangle. Planetcentric.
https://planetcentric.net/the-futures-triangle/
UNICEF Philippines. (2019). (publication). Futures Thinking and Futures Literacy
Guide and Toolkit f or UNICEF Facilitators. UNICEF.
Van Duijne, F., & Bishop, P. (2018). Introduction to Strategic Foresight. Future
Motions.