Design Futures 2

Trends, Task and

Assignment
Assignment
 Models
numerous
& complex
 Simplified Linear Futures Model

1 2 3 4 5

Mega Trends Experts Users Blue

Trends Sky Future
Concept
or
Identify, Identify, Scenario
Analyse & Analyse &
Authenticate Authenticate Create
REMEMBER:
Can we really predict the future?

▪ Pragmatic observation is ‘No’….. But

maybe if we accept
▪ Varying degrees or % likelihood accuracy
▪ Only possible in small, clearly defined areas
▪ Chaos effect – small events could cause
radical changes to our predictions
▪ But producing ‘Scenarios or Possible
Futures ….
▪ Can aid Strategic Discussion / Conversation
▪ Act as Inspiration / Vision or call for ACTION
The Tools or Basic Building Blocks
of Futures

Futures Research starts

with scanning the
Contextual framework,
looking for trends or
indications of future
possibilities. It adds
opinion, ideas, human
realities…
Trends & Mega Trends

Where do we think many

companies get ideas about
what's happening / going to
happen in their markets?
 Data can be
collected and will
shown trends….
DATA AND BIG DATA
Issues are short
term nature,
forming
competitive
insights
Trends and Trend Extrapolation

Trend extrapolation is a forecasting

(projection) technique which builds on the
assumption that certain social, economic
or technological trends or patterns
identified in the past will manifest
themselves in the future and that one can
forecast future trends by observing how
certain patterns have changed in the past
and projecting or extrapolating that
change into the future.
 Data Methods

▪ Time series methods

Use historical data as the basis for estimating
future outcomes.
▪ Moving average
▪ Exponential smoothing
▪ Linear prediction
▪ Trend estimation
▪ Growth curve
▪ S-curve - patent databases etc.,
▪ Causal / econometric methods
Assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying
factors that might influence the variable that is being
forecasted. For example, sales of umbrellas might be
associated with weather conditions.
 Forecasts of the global GDP per capita by the
end of the 21st century

Institute of Economic Sciences, University of Wroclaw, Poland 2012

Soft Trend Analysis
Soft Trend Analysis
Soft Trend Analysis
Soft Trend Analysis
Can we usefully categorise /
analyse trends?
 What Trends will affect Parcel Delivery?

Long Lasting / Significant

Affects small groups

Affects many people / areas

Short Life Span

 What Trends will affect Parcel Delivery?

Long Lasting / Significant

NICHE TRENDS MEGA TRENDS

Affects small groups

Affects many people / areas

WHITE NOISE FADS & FASHIONS

Short Life Span Trend Matrix Boult 2011

 Trends are here…
and then gone?

“Nobody comes here

anymore, its too crowded”
― Yogi Berra

Just as a fish doesn't know it

is wet, so companies often
can't see or feel the very
opportunities where they are
Co-
Baseball swimming” Founder
Player ― Pam Henderson, Killing Ideas - You New-
can kill an idea, you can't kill an Edge
opportunity
Answers are out there…
We have to find them….
 Signal and Noise

RSA Keynote
▪ Statistician Nate Silver, founder of the
influential fivethirtyeight.com blog, received
widespread, international attention for his
stunningly accurate predictions of the US
Presidential election results.
At the RSA, Nate Silver considers the art and science
of prediction, reveals why most forecasts fail, and
shows how we can isolate a true "signal" from a
universe of increasingly big and noisy data.

▪ http://www.thersa.org/events/audio-and-past-
events/2013/the-signal-and-the-noise
 A Book

The Signal and the Noise : Why Most

Predictions Fail – but Some Don't
(2012 Nate Silver)

He Says….
Futures are forecast by
looking backwards?

Forecasts never explore the

assumptions or context in
sufficient detail?

We suggest…
Maybe Imagineering is as
reliable
 But What Problem? Framing
What is the sum of 5 plus 5?"
"What two numbers add up to 10?“

The first question has only one right answer, and the
second question has an infinite number of solutions,
including negative numbers and fractions. These two
problems, which rely on simple addition, differ only in the
way they are framed. In fact, all questions are the frame
into which the answers fall. And as you can see, by
changing the frame, you dramatically change the range of
possible solutions.

Albert Einstein is quoted as saying, "If I had an hour to

solve a problem and my life depended on the solution, I
would spend the first fifty-five minutes determining the
proper question to ask, for once I know the proper
question, I could solve the problem in less than five
minutes."
InGenius (2011) Tina Seelig.
Google Trends – short short..
 Just what is a trend?

Trends are the aggregate effect of many

uncoordinated individual and group
actions.
 Trends

▪ Q: Who create new trends?

A: We call them trendsetters, and they are a distinct group
because of their personality. There is such a thing as a trendsetter
personality and it makes trendsetters crave changes from time to
time. Because of this they are very open to new innovative styles
and will be the first to take on what is new. There are many
trendsetters in groups such as, for instance, designers, artists.

Henrik Vejlgaard, M.A.,M.Sc., is a

pioneer in trend sociology, the study
of the trend process
 Trends

▪ Q: Where will a new trend begin?

A: Most trends start in large cities that have many trendsetters. In

the United States there is an overrepresentation of trendsetters in
New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco. From there the trend will
spread to the rest of the country. On a global scale there are
seven cities that again and again influence style and taste all over
the world because of the number of trendsetters living there.
Besides the three American cities, the cities are London, Paris,
Milan, and Tokyo

Henrik Vejlgaard, M.A.,M.Sc., is a

pioneer in trend sociology, the study
of the trend process
What is trending at the moments

▪ Fashion
▪ Communication
▪ Entertainment
▪ Society
▪ Technology

Which are the FADS?

 Just what is a MegaTrend?

▪ “Megatrend” was coined by the US-

American author John Naisbitt in
his 1982 book “Megatrends” which
was published in 57 countries
▪ He describes a vision of the future
beyond the millennium based on
ten drastic developments.
▪ He coined, the term globalisation.
▪ Megatrends. Ten New Directions Transforming
Our Lives. Warner Books, 1982
 Naisbitt’s 1984 MegaTrends

1. Becoming an information society after having been

an industrial one
2. From technology being forced into use, to technology
being pulled into use where it is appealing to people
3. From a predominantly national economy to one in the
global marketplace
4. From short term to long term perspectives
5. From centralization to decentralization
6. From getting help through institutions like
government to self-help
7. From representative to participative democracy
8. From hierarchies to networking
9. From a north-eastern bias to a south-western one
10. From seeing things as "either/or" to having more
choices
 Trends Compared
1. The Power of Spirituality.
2. The Dawn of Conscious
Capitalism.
3. Leading from the Middle.
4. Spirituality in Business
5. The Values-Driven Consumer.
6. The Wave of Conscious
Solutions.
7. The Socially Responsible
Investment Boom.
Megatrends 2010:
The Rise of Conscious
Capitalism
By Patricia Aburdene
1. The Information Economy.
2. Technology and the Human Scale.
The trend is in dual directions – high
tech and high touch.
3. The Emergence of a Global
Economy.
4. Longer Time Frames.
5. The Growth of Empowerment. Self
Reliance.
6. Changing Framework of
Democracy.
7. Hierarchy is Replaced by Informal
Networks..
8. Speed is a Competitive Weapon.
9. More Choice..
10. The Power of Small Businesses.
Megatrends by John Naisbitt
 Where to look for Trends

▪ Trend Agencies
▪ Trend Experts & Writers
▪ Trend Bloggers
▪ Trend Websites
▪ Reading Magazines
▪ Reading Books & Papers & ……
▪ Looking to the Arts & Literature
▪ Observing Life
 Determining Trends

▪ Find the event or events

▪ Why do you think it could be a trend, what
makes you think it could survive and
develop over your required time frame
(what is the evidence / causality /Linkage)
… or will it just be a fad?
▪ Will it ‘mutate’ or remain much as it is
today?
 Trends as Drivers

Healthcare example
 How Trends Start!

…analysis of how
trends are sparked
and take hold…

The Law of the Few, Connectors, Mavens, and Salesmen…..the Stickiness

Factor as the quality that compels people to pay close, sustained attention
but has to relate to the Power of Context
Trend to Popular to Decline
 Using Trends

▪ Which trends support or challenge your

future views?
▪ Is there any evidence that the trend could
continue?
▪ Could be data, could be views and opinions of
experts, could be your intuition
▪ How can I use the trend to create or
support a future scenario or proposition?
 Inamo, London
“ The future
is here.
It's just
not widely
distributed
yet."

William Gibson
Science Fiction
Writer
 Hyperloop, Heathrow, London
“ The future
is here.
It's just
not widely
distributed
yet."

William Gibson
Science Fiction
Writer
Books…
‘Reflective Log’
 Workshop Two
Tasks

Confirm Teams
Monday 28th January 2019
Review Topic Ideas
Identify and Map Relevant Trends
Stylus here next week,… How
to spot a trend, apply trends
to your project