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Tokyo
16 September 2015
2003
2005
2007
2009
2012
2014
1998
1999
2001
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2011
2013
16.0%
1,800
Capacity in TEU Thousands
13.8%
13.2%
12.8%
1,600
12.3%
9.1%
9.7%
1,200
9.3%
9.1%
8.9%
7.9%
1,000
5.5%
6.3%
6.0%
5.8%
5.4%
800 2016 deliveries lowest in %
600 y-o-y growth terms
400
200
Net Fleet Additions include adjustments for scrapping and delivery slippage
• 2015F deliveries : 1.8 million TEU (with low scrapping rate of 0.14 million TEU)
• 2016F deliveries : 1.4 million TEU (with higher scrapping rate of 0.30 million TEU)
Box Club : Sep 2015 © Alphaliner Page 3
ALPHALINER Containership Market Outlook
www.alphaliner.com – the worldwide reference in liner shipping © Alphaliner 1999-2015 – Contents not to be reproduced without permission
800,000 8%
Idle capacity in TEU
600,000 6%
400,000 4%
200,000 2%
0 0%
2011
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,600,000
Overhang still not cleared
1,400,000 Additional capacity from reversal of slow steaming
1,200,000
Surplus LTAM capacity
1,000,000
Additional intra-Asia demand
Idle capicity in TEU
800,000
400,000
Diversion to US East Coast
200,000
US West Coast congestion
0
2009
2010
2013
2014
2011
2012
2015
18 rows across 23 15 98 34 16 0
45-46 m beam 0 0 1 0 0 0
7,500-8,700 teu 8,100-8,600 teu 8,400-9,600 teu 9,900-11,000 teu 11.300-11.600 teu
19 rows across 75 0 35 0 95 0
48-49 m beam 66 0 35 0 6 0
8,600-10,600 teu 10,000-11,000 teu 12,500-14,000 teu
20 rows across 0 0 0 0 41 38
51-52 m beam 0 0 0 0 33 16
13,300-14,500 teu 13,800-15,000 teu
Intra-Europe : 33%/70%%
Transatlantic : 29%/86% FE-Europe : 20%/60%
20%/66%
Transpacific : 11%/44% ME/ISC : 14%/44%
11%/47% 14%/45%
Africa : 33%/84%
Intra-Far East : 8%/32%
15%/37%
LTAM : 19%/73%
Oceania : 16%/57%
16%/59%
• Alliance re-alignment
Fear of disruptions was a factor in contract rate negotiations (Asia-Europe in Jan 2015)
CSAV & CCNI integration – impact on South American trades
17.3%
16.8%
20%
FE-Europe FE-US
15%
7.5%
6.0%
5.9%
5.5%
10%
3.9%
3.1%
1.3%
0.8%
5%
0%
-5%
-4.5%
-4.9%
-10%
-15%
-14.8%
-15.3%
-20%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(to Jul)