Confidence interval for

population proportion
Sample proportion
•  Let be the number of items sampled.

• Let be the number of successes.

• Sample proportion:

• Example: In a sample of 1000 individuals, 750 favor one of the

candidates.
Population proportion
•  Denote the population proportion by .

• Prior to election, we take a sample of people at random.

• Compute from the sample.

• If we have a large sample, should be a good estimator of .

 Confidence interval for
• 
• The confidence interval is given by:

• The value of is obtained from the given confidence level.

• Use the standard normal table

Assumptions
• Binomial
  conditions:
1. There are independent trials.
2. There are only two possible outcomes (Success, Failure)
3. The probability of a success remains the same from one trial to the next.
4. The sample data are the number of successes in

• The values of both and should be greater than or equal to 5 in order to invoke
the central limit theorem.
17) p. 300

• The Fox TV network is considering replacing one of its prime-time

crime investigation shows with a new family-oriented comedy show.
Before a final decision is made, network executives commission a
sample of 400 viewers. After viewing the comedy, 250 indicated they
would watch the new show and suggested it replace the crime
investigation show.
1. Estimate the value of the population proportion.
2. Develop a 99% confidence interval for the population proportion.
3. Interpret your findings.
Solution
•  Population proportion:

• 99% confidence interval for : where the value of is obtained from the
standard Normal table: The area of the two tails is 1%. Hence the area
of the right tail is 0.005. So, the area between 0 and is equal to 0.495,
hence Interval: (0.563,0.649)

• We are 99% sure that the true proportion is between 56 and 65 %.

Statistics in Action
• Many survey results reported in newspapers, in news magazines, and
on TV use confidence intervals. For example, a survey of 800 TV
viewers in Toledo, Ohio , found 44% watched the evening news on the
local CBS affiliate. The article went on to indicate the margin of error
was 3.4%.

• The margin of error is actually the amount that is added and

subtracted from the point estimate to find the endpoints of a
confidence interval.
Continue
•  From the formula and the 95% level of confidence:

• This is indeed the value of the margin of error reported in the article.