One Sample Inference

(Estimation)
By: Girma M.

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Outline’s
• Introduction
• Point Estimation
• Interval Estimation

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 Introduction
• Inferential statistics consists of generalizing from
samples to populations, performing estimations and
hypothesis tests, determining relationships among
variables, and making predictions.
• Statistical Inference is the act of generalizing from a
sample to a population with calculated degree of
certainty,
• One aspect of inferential statistics is Estimation,
which is the process of estimating the value of a
parameter from information obtained from a sample.
• Estimation provides most likely location of
parameter with margin of error,
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 Con’t
• Basic terms:
• Estimator: A sample statistic which is used to estimate a population
parameter. It must be unbiased, consistent and relatively efficient,
• Estimate: is the different possible values which an estimator can assume,
• Inferential statistical techniques have various assumptions that
must be met before valid conclusions can be obtained.
• One common assumption is that the samples must be randomly
selected.
• The other common assumption is that either the sample size must
be greater than or equal to 30 or the population must be normally
or approximately normally distributed if the sample size is less
than 30.
• There are two ways of statistical estimation, which are Point
Estimation and Interval Estimation. 4
 Point Estimation
• Definition: point estimate of a parameter θ is a single number
that can be regard as a sensible value for θ. A point estimate is
obtained by selecting a suitable statistic and computing its value
from the given sample data. The selected statistic is called the
point estimator of θ.

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 Con’t
Point Estimator of Population Mean (𝝁) Point Estimator of Population Proportion (𝑷)

• The best point estimate of the • The best point estimator of

population mean 𝜇 is the
sample mean 𝑥ҧ .
• Example: The manager of a large
• Example: Consider the
following data and find the
point estimate of the
population mean:
5,8,9,4,5,6,7,21,23,14,15,18,20
,12,17,and 18.
population proportion P is sample
proportion 𝑝.Ƹ
apple Orchard is concerned with
presence of a particular insect
pest in the apple trees in the
Orchard. Suppose that he got 35
of the 200 apple trees in the
sample are infected by the insect
pest. What is the point estimate of
population proportion?

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 Interval Estimation
• A point estimate, it is a single number, by itself provides no
information about the precision, and reliability of estimation,
• The point estimate says nothing about how close it might be to the
parameter. An alternative to estimate a single value for the parameter
being estimated is calculate an entire sensible values which is called
an interval estimate or confidence interval (CI),
• Basic terms:

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Con’t
• A confidence interval is always calculated by first selecting a
confidence level, which is a measure of the degree of reliability
of the interval.
• The most frequently used confidence levels are 95%, 99%, and
90%,
• The higher the confidence level, the more strongly we believe
that the value of the parameter being estimated lies within the
interval. A very wide confidence interval gives the message that
there is a great deal of uncertainty concerning the value of what
we are estimating.

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 Interval Estimation of Population Mean (µ)
When 𝝈 Is Known

• Usually, σ2 is not known, in such case we substitute σ by sample

standard deviation s for large sample (n>30) and the corresponding
confidence interval is:

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 Interval Estimation of Population Mean (µ)
When 𝝈 Is Unknown
• Most of the time, the value of 𝜎 is not known, so it must be
estimated by using s, namely, the standard deviation of the sample.
• When s is used, especially when the sample size is small, critical
values are taken from the Student t distribution, most often called
the t distribution.
• To use this method, the samples must be simple random samples,
and the population from which the samples were taken must be
normally or approximately normally distributed, or the sample
size must be 30 or more.
• Many statistical distributions use the concept of degrees of
freedom, and the formulas for finding the degrees of freedom vary
for different statistical tests.
• The degrees of freedom are the number of values that are free to
vary after a sample statistic has been computed, and they tell the
researcher which specific curve to use when a distribution consists
of a family of curves. 10
 Con’t
• Some important characteristics of the t distribution are described now.

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 Interval Estimation of Population
Proportion (P)

• Confidence intervals about proportions must meet the criteria

that n ∗ 𝑝Ƹ > 5 and n ∗ 𝑞ො > 5 .

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Examples
1. Number of Jobs : A sociologist found that in a sample of 50 retired men,
the average number of jobs they had during their lifetimes was 7.2.
The population standard deviation is 2.1.
a. Find the best point estimate of the mean.(Ans. 7.2 jobs)
b. Find the 95% confidence interval of the mean
number of jobs. (Ans. 6.6 < 𝜇 < 7.8)
c. Find the 99% confidence interval of the mean
number of jobs. (Ans. 6.4 < 𝜇 < 8 )
d. Which is smaller? Explain why.
2. Sleeping Time: Ten randomly selected people were asked how long
they slept at night. The mean time was 7.1 hours, and the standard
deviation was 0.78 hour. Find the 95% confidence interval of the
mean time. Assume the variable is normally distributed. (Ans. 6.54 <
μ < 7.66)
3. Fruit Consumption: A nutritionist found that in a sample of 80
families, 25% indicated that they ate fruit at least 3 times a week. Find
the 99% confidence interval of the true proportion of families who
said that they ate fruit at least 3 times a week. (Ans. 0.125 < p< 0.375)
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Thank You!!!
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