A Geostatistical

Approach to Mineral
Reserves Estimation

Hafiz Umair Ali

MS-MRE (2018-20)
Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Islamabad
Agenda
• Introduction to Resource/Reserve Estimation
• Conventional Methods
• Introduction
• Limitations
• Geostatistical Methods
• Introduction
• Concept
• Interpolation
• Mineral Inventory, Ore Grade & Tonnage
• Integrated Geostatistical Study Workflow
• Limitations
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Mineral Resource/Reserve Estimation
• Mineral resources are non-
renewable and include metals
(e.g. Fe, Cu, and Al), and non-
metals (e.g. salt, gypsum, clay,
sand, phosphates)
• Mineral reserves are
resources known to be
economically feasible for
extraction.

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Conventional Methods
• Method of sections (Plans);
longitudinal, transverse
• Polygonal method
• Triangular method
• Regular grid, random stratified
grid
• Inverse distance weighting
• Contouring methods

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Conventional Methods - Limitations
• Errors in the estimation of thickness (e.g. considering uniform
thickness between data points)
• Errors in the area and shape or ore body (if varies considerably)
• These methods doesn’t account any correlation of mineralization
between sample points nor qualify any error of estimation
• Interpolation of grade (i.e. influence of assay)
• Irregular Sampling could also lead to considerable errors in reserves
estimation
• These methods are simple but not realistic for complex ore types

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Geostatistical Methods
• Geostatistics recognizes that the samples in a mineral deposit are
spatially correlated with one another, and that the samples at closer
spacing are probably not independent.

Ordered (Mean=3; s2=1.582, s2∆h(Spatial Variance)= 0.5

Disordered (Mean=3; s2=1.582, s2∆h(Spatial Variance)= 4.37

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Regionalized Variable Theory
• Regionalized Variable
• The variables distributed in space and time (e.g. ore grade, thickness of
formation, elevation etc.)
• Objectives
• To express spatial properties
• Estimate regionalized variables from sample data
• Random Function
• All complex attributes that we study in geology
• Concept
• Data points are correlatable
• Data points act as a random function instead of random values

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Semi-Variogram Function
• The
  function that measures the spatial variability among sample values in
pairs is known as the semi-variogram function, γ(h).
• Comparisons are made between each sample of a data set with the
remaining ones in pair at a constantly increasing distance, known as the
lag interval.
Perfect Correlation – Autocorrelation

Decreasing Correlation

No Correlation

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Mathematical Expression
•  Semi-variogram and co-variogram can be mathematically related as:

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Mathematical Models

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Mathematical Models

Decrease

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We miss the TRICK here . . . !

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 Kriging Interpolation
(after South African Engineer, D.G. Krige, who first developed it)
Kriging Interpolation
• It uses semi-variogram functions to
estimate a surface using node points.
• It incorporates measures of errors
W1
and uncertainty when determining Unknown
Z1
estimates
• Each known/unknown data point has
associated variance except for a W2
W3
Z2
constant value (i.e. zero variance) Z3
• In Kriging, weights are assigned to
each data point for realistic
interpolation
Z i= Data values W i= Weighting Factor
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Ordinary Kriging
• It’s the simplest form of kriging
• It uses dimensionless points to estimate other dimensionless points
e.g. Elevation Contours
• In Ordinary Kriging, the regionalized variable is assumed to be
Stationary

  𝒛 𝒆 ( 𝒑 ) = 𝜮 𝒘 𝒊 ⋅ 𝒛 ( 𝒑𝒊 )   𝒏
𝟐
∑ [ 𝒛 𝒆 ( 𝒑𝒊 ) − 𝒛 𝒂 ( 𝒑𝒊 ) ] 𝒊
𝝈𝟐= 𝒊=𝟏
 
𝜺𝒆 = 𝒛𝒆 ( 𝒑 ) − 𝒛𝒂 ( 𝒑 ) 𝒏

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 Ordinary Kriging
  +=
  += Estimation
  +=
  =1 z e ( p )  w1 z1  w2 z 2  w3 z 3
A forth variable is introduced called the Lagrange Multiplier
  +=
  +=
  + =
Variance
  (h ) 11
 (h )
12
 (h ) 1  w    (h
13 1 1p
)
  (h )
 21
 (h )21
 (h ) 1  w    (h
23
   
2 2p
)

σ 2z  w1 γ(h1 p )  w2 γ(h21 p )  w13 γ(h3 p )  λ
  (h ) 31
 (h )
32
 (h ) 1  w    (h
33 3 3p
)
     
 1 1 1 0     1 

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Mineral Inventory
• Each kriged block is labelled with
its Kriged Mean (KM) and Kriged
Variance (KV) giving a 3D array of
blocks
• Block dimensions are known,
thus, whole tonnage is
computed.
• This is termed as Mineral
Inventory which provides in situ
stock of a mineral.

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Grade-Tonnage Relations
• The confidence limit of tonnage at a stated probability is related to
three factors:
• Inherent variability of the 3D mineralized outline and its width
• Inherent variability of in situ bulk density of the mineralized body
• Frequency and spacing of borehole intersections.

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Integrated Geostatistical Study Workflow

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 Geostatistics in Mineral
Industry
• Database Verification and Preliminary
Study of Sample Values
• Geologic Modeling
• Optimization of Sampling Program
• Reserve Estimation
• Mining and Production Control
Method
• Risk Analysis

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Geostatistical Methods - Limitations
• Misunderstanding of, or insufficient information concerning the
geology of a deposit;
• Insufficient sample information;
• Poor choice of geostatistical method, resulting in inaccurate
calculation, interpretation, and modeling of the parameters of the
deposit, including the semi-variogram;
• Misunderstanding of the constraints that must be satisfied to apply a
given geostatistical method, including the stationarity condition.

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 Thank You!
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