Paper idea: The relationship between

COVID-19, Air pollution, and Water Quality

2020. 07. 15.

Air pollution - United States (2019)

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Air pollution - United States (2020)

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Air pollution – PRC (Jan and Feb, 2020)

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Paper study:
COVID-19, City Lockdowns, and Air Pollution:
Evidence from China
G. He, Y. Pan, and T. Tanaka. April 2020. medRxiv.

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Introduction

• The effects of “Lockdown” on Air Quality

• The 2020 Spring Festival on Air Quality in the “Control Gorup”

• Spring Festival: 춘절 (23. January ~ 29. January)

• Period:

• 01. January ~ 01. March, 2019

• 01. January ~ 01. March, 2020

• Method:

• Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model and Event Study

• Back-of-the-envelope Calculations on Potential Health Benefits

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Conclusion

• Air quality improved by around 25% relative to the same season in 2019

• AQI decreased by 28.2 points

• PM2.5 by 22.3µg/m3

• Air quality improved even in the control cities around 7.5%

• (where lockdown was not fully implemented)

• AQI decreased by 8.8 points (7%)

• PM2.5 by 8.4 µg/m3 (8%)

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AQI (Air Quality Index)

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Air quality data

• Source: • Variables:

• Ministry of Ecology and Environment PRC • Air Quality (AQI)

• 1605 air quality monitoring stations • PM2.5

• PM10

• SO2

• O3

• NO2

• CO

• City-level, Weekly

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Weather data

• Source: • Variables:

• Global Historical Climatology Network • Temperature

(GHCN) in NOAA • Precipitation ( 강수량 )

• Snow

• City-level, Weekly

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Lockdown data

• Source: • Criteria:

• Local government announcement • Prohibition of unnecessary commercial

• News media activities for people’s daily lives

• Prohibition of any type of gathering by

residents

• Restrictions on private (vehicles) and

public transportation.

• Daily  (agg)  Weekly

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 • Control Cities: 229
• Treated Cities: 95

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DiD: Difference in Differences

• DiD ( 이중차분법 )

• Analyze the differences using the difference

• Calculation method mainly used in economics to measure the change of policy

• Group difference:

• Control group: The group which was not affected by the policy

• Treatment group: The group which was affected by the policy

• Time difference:

• Before: The time before the policy applied

• After: The time after the policy applied

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DiD estimator
 

Before After After – Before

Control

Treatment

Treatment – Control (Average treatment effect)

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DiD graph

1
+𝛿
1
𝛽
+
0
 

𝛿
 𝛽0 +
Average treatment effect
 
Control group  𝛽
0
+ 𝛿 + 𝛽1
 𝛽 1 𝛽
  0
0

Treatment group 𝛽 +𝛽1

  0

Policy applied
Before After

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COVID-19 × air-pollution
• Dataset: http://www.airkorea.or.kr/web/last_amb_hour_data?pMENU_NO=123

• 518 sensors in entire South Korea

• SO2, CO, O3, NO2, PM10, PM2.5 ( 이산화황 , 일산화탄소 , 오존 , 이산화질소 , 미세먼지 )

• Control group: 2019 January week 3 (1/15) ~ week 17 (4/22)

• Treatment group: 2020 January week 3(1/15) ~ week 17 (4/21)

• COVID-19 effected period 1/20 ~ (current)

Before After After – Before

Control
Control
Treatment
Treatment
Treatment
Treatment –
– Control
Control (Average treatment effect)

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COVID-19 × air-pollution - DiD graph

ta
da
COVID-19 period

n
tio
Air pollution

lu
ol
rp
Average treatment effect

ai
20
20
2019 ata ted
d Predic
llution 2020 ion data
air po llut
Treatment group air po g LR
2019 ata usin
Control group d ’19)
llution (’16~
air po

COVID appeared in South Korea

2020 Jan 20
2019 2020
W3~W17 W3~W17

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