Professional Documents
Culture Documents
. .
.. SLIDES BY
.. John Loucks
.. St. Edward’s
.. University
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Chapter 8
Interval Estimation
Population Mean: s Known
Population Mean: s Unknown
Determining the Sample Size
Population Proportion
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Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate
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3
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Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate
x Margin of Error
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4
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Known
In order to develop an interval estimate of a
population mean, the margin of error must be
computed using either:
• the population standard deviation s , or
• the sample standard deviation s
s is rarely known exactly, but often a good estimate
can be obtained based on historical data or other
information.
We refer to such cases as the s known case.
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Known
There is a 1 - probability that the value of a
sample mean will provide a margin of error of z /2 x
or less.
Sampling
distribution
of x
x
z /2 x z /2 x
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Known
Sampling
distribution
of x
1 - of all
/2 /2
x values
interval
does not x
include m z /2 x z /2 x interval
includes m
[------------------------- x -------------------------]
[------------------------- x -------------------------]
[------------------------- x -------------------------]
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Known
Interval Estimate of m
x z /2
n
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Known
Values of za/2 for the Most Commonly Used
Confidence Levels
Confidence Table
Level a a/2 Look-up Area za/2
90% .10 .05 .9500 1.645
95% .05 .025 .9750 1.960
99% .01 .005 .9950 2.576
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Meaning of Confidence
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10
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
Known
Example: Discount Sounds
Discount Sounds has 260 retail outlets throughout
the United States. The firm is evaluating a potential
location for a new outlet, based in part, on the mean
annual income of the individuals in the marketing
area of the new location.
A sample of size n = 36 was taken; the sample
mean income is $41,100. The population is not
believed to be highly skewed. The population
standard deviation is estimated to be $4,500, and the
confidence coefficient to be used in the interval
estimate is .95.
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
Known
Example: Discount Sounds
95% of the sample means that can be observed
are within + 1.96 x of the population mean .
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
Known
Example: Discount Sounds
Interval estimate of is:
$41,100 + $1,470
or
$39,630 to $42,570
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
Known
Example: Discount Sounds
Confidence Margin
Level of Error Interval Estimate
90% 3.29 78.71 to 85.29
95% 3.92 78.08 to 85.92
99% 5.15 76.85 to 87.15
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Known
Adequate Sample Size
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Known
Adequate Sample Size (continued)
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16
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Unknown
If an estimate of the population standard deviation s
cannot be developed prior to sampling, we use the
sample standard deviation s to estimate s .
This is the s unknown case.
In this case, the interval estimate for m is based on the
t distribution.
(We’ll assume for now that the population is
normally distributed.)
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t Distribution
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t Distribution
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19
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t Distribution
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t Distribution
t distribution
Standard (20 degrees
normal of freedom)
distribution
t distribution
(10 degrees
of freedom)
z, t
0
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t Distribution
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t Distribution
Standard normal
z values
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Interval Estimate
s
x t /2
n
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Example: Apartment Rents
A reporter for a student newspaper is writing an
article on the cost of off-campus housing. A sample of
16 one-bedroom apartments within a half-mile of
campus resulted in a sample mean of $750 per month
and a sample standard deviation of $55.
Let us provide a 95% confidence interval estimate
of the mean rent per month for the population of one-
bedroom efficiency apartments within a half-mile of
campus. We will assume this population to be
normally distributed.
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Unknown
At 95% confidence, = .05, and /2 = .025.
t.025 is based on n - 1 = 16 - 1 = 15 degrees of freedom.
In the t distribution table we see that t.025 = 2.131.
Degrees Area in Upper Tail
of Freedom .20 .100 .050 .025 .010 .005
15 .866 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947
16 .865 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921
17 .863 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898
18 .862 1.330 1.734 2.101 2.520 2.878
19 .861 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861
. . . . . . .
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Interval Estimate
s
x t.025 Margin
n of Error
55
750 2.131 750 29.30
16
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Adequate Sample Size
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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Interval Estimate of a Population Mean:
s Unknown
Adequate Sample Size (continued)
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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29
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Summary of Interval Estimation Procedures
for a Population Mean
Can the
Yes No
population standard
deviation s be assumed
known ?
Use the sample
standard deviation
s Known s to estimate s
Case
Use Use
s Unknown s
x z /2 Case x t /2
n n
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Mean
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Mean
Margin of Error
E z /2
n
( z / 2 ) 2 2
n
E2
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Mean
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Mean
z /2 500
n
At 95% confidence, z.025 = 1.96. Recall that = 4,500.
(1.96)2 (4, 500)2
n 2
311.17 312
(500)
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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35
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
The general form of an interval estimate of a
population proportion is
p Margin of Error
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
Normal Approximation of Sampling Distribution of p
Sampling p(1 p)
distribution p
n
of p
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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38
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
Interval Estimate
p (1 p )
p z / 2
n
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
Example: Political Science, Inc.
Political Science, Inc. (PSI) specializes in voter polls
and surveys designed to keep political office seekers
informed of their position in a race.
Using telephone surveys, PSI interviewers ask
registered voters who they would vote for if the
election were held that day.
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
Example: Political Science, Inc.
In a current election campaign, PSI has just found
that 220 registered voters, out of 500 contacted, favor
a particular candidate. PSI wants to develop a 95%
confidence interval estimate for the proportion of the
population of registered voters that favor the
candidate.
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
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or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
p (1 p )
p z / 2
n
where: n = 500, p = 220/500 = .44, z/2 = 1.96
.44(1 .44)
.44 1.96 = .44 + .0435
500
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Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
Margin of Error
p (1 p )
E z / 2
n
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Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
Necessary Sample Size
( z / 2 )2 p* (1 p* )
n
E2
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Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
p * (1 p * )
z /2 .03
n
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Sample Size for an Interval Estimate
of a Population Proportion
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47
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End of Chapter 8
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