Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(An Overview)
By
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
World Meteorological Organization
4. Conclusions
We cannot avoid hazards
…but we can Prevent Them
from Becoming Disasters
Tsunami
0,4% Earthquake Drought Volcano
8% 30% Tsunami 1%
Slides 12%
Volcano Windstorm 5% Epidemic,
1,6% 27% insects
Wild Fires 10%
3%
Tsunami
Loss of life
Number of 1%
events Earthquake Drought
22% 5%
Extreme
Temp.
2%
Flood
25%
Windstorm Economic
43%
losses Source: EM-
DAT: The
OFDA/CRED
International
Wild Fires
Disaster Database
2%
- www.em-dat.net
90% of events, 70% of casualties and 75% of economic - Université
Catholique de
Volcano Windstorm
30% Epidemic, famine,
1% Tsunami
insects
7%
Drought 30%
Wild Fires
Number of 2%
0.23%
events
Extreme
Temperature
0.7% Flood
Loss of life
41%
Drought
3%
Slides
0.3%
Tsunami
0.7% Wild Fires
0.4%
Windstorm
Earthquake
19%
35% Source: EM-
Economic DAT: The
losses OFDA/CRED
International
Disaster Database
- www.em-dat.net
90% of events, 70% of casualties and 65% of economic - Université
Catholique de
Epidemic, famine,
insects
4% Loss of life
Number of
events Slides
0.2% Flood
Extreme 7%
Temperature
0.3% Wild Fires
32%
Drought
Epidemic, famine, 19%
insects
0.2%
Tsunami
Economic
8% Windstorm
25%
losses Source: EM-
DAT: The
Volcano
1.7%
OFDA/CRED
International
Earthquake
7%
Disaster Database
- www.em-dat.net
80% of events, 25% of casualties and 80% of economic - Université
Catholique de
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
Disasters Happen in Many Places...
... with Different Relative Economical Impacts
SEISMIC FLOOD
SEISMIC
DROUGHT
FLOOD
FLOOD
DROUGHT
DROUGHT
Least Developed Countries are the Most Impacted
Billion USD % of GDP
Conclusions from 4th IPCC WG II
(Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability)
Phenomenon Likelihood Major projected impacts
Food
security
Strong Wind Transport
Exposure is increasing !
Hazards’ intensity Heavy rainfall / Flood
and frequency
are increasing
Heatwaves
Need for
disaster risk
Frequency
management
Disaster risks are increasing, due to:
– Increasing intensity and frequency
of hydrometeorological hazards;
– Increasing value of exposed
elements due to development and
demographic expansion.
50 3500
35 2500
N u m b e r o f P r o je c t s
m illio n s o f U S $
30
2000
25
1500
20
15 1000
10
500
5
0 0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ap p ro val FY
Shifting Disaster Risk Management from
Post-Disaster Reaction to Prevention
• Traditionally, disaster risk management approach has
been focused on emergency response and recovery
measures
Civil Protection
and
Humanitarian
Sectoral Media
Planning
Coordination
Collaborations
Academia
and
Research
Need for Effective and Harmonized Governance,
Organizational and Operational Mechanisms
INSTITUTIONAL
Nations and
Direction through GA, communities Direct support to
ECOSOC, etc, specific institutions, programme
requests, support via National Platforms, implementation,
ISDR Support Group Government agencies, technical advice
and contributions
NGOs, local authorities,
technical organisations,
community organisations
Global Supporting
coordination mechanisms mechanisms
UN Secretary General ISDR regional and thematic
USG Humanitarian Affairs, platforms
Management Oversight International and regional
Board organisations
Guidance,
Global Platform for DR and support,
UN Country Teams
subsidiary bodies (PAC etc) monitoring
ISDR secretariat
New DRM Paradigm
Governance and Organizational Aspects
• International community mobilized to
provide more coordinated assistance to
countries (ISDR System)
• Regional DRM strategic plans based on
HFA
• New or amended national plans and
legislation and multi-ministry coordination
mechanism (42 countries)
Lack of political recognition on benefits of
prevention and mitigation strategies!
Regional Consultations &
Strategies
Region Initiative Status
Asia - Beijing Action Plan for Disaster Risk -Adopted at the 2nd Asian Ministerial
Reduction in Asia Conference on Disaster Reduction,
Beijing, September 2005
-India to host the 3rd Ministerial
Conference in November 2007
-Asian Conference on Disaster - Held in Kazakhstan in June 2007
Reduction
Pacific - Madang Framework for Action for - Endorsed by leaders at the Pacific
Building the Resilience of Nations and Islands Forum, Port Moresby, Papua
Communities to Disaster, 2005-2015 New Guinea, October 2005
- +
Frequency
Exposure
Hazard
Risk
Resilience
+
Resistance -
Intensity
- Vulnerability
+
Challenges in Development of National
Hazard and Risk Assessment Programmes
500
450 Hydrometeorological
400 345
350
300
250
200 160
150 103
88
100 47
24
50 4 11 14
0
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
decade
Source: EM-DAT: The
OFDA/CRED
International Disaster
Database - www.em-
dat.net - Université
Catholique de Louvain
- Brussels - Belgium
While Casualties related to Hydro-
Meteorological Disasters are Decreasing
Millions of casualties per decade Geological
3
2.66
Hydrometeorological
2.5
2 1.73
1.5
1 0.65 0.67
0.39
0.5 0.22 0.25 0.22
0.17
0.05
0
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
decade
Source: EM-DAT: The
OFDA/CRED
International Disaster
Database - www.em-
Warnings have been integrated in
dat.net - Université
Catholique de Louvain
- Brussels - Belgium
emergency planning and preparedness
• Global Survey of Early
Warning Systems:
co-chaired by WMO &
OCHA. Final report
released at the 61st UN
General Assembly
(November 2006)
http://www.unisdr.org/ppew/info-resources/ewc3/
Global-Survey-of-Early-Warning-Systems.pdf
In many countries, early warning systems are not Communities
an integral part of disaster risk management at risk
National to local
governments po
s
g re t-dis
nin sp a
r on ste
wa se r
rd
za
ha
NATIONAL SERVICES
Meteorological
Geological
Marine
Health (etc.)…
4
1
Effective Early Community
Preparedness
National to local
Warning governments
Systems supported by 5
DRR plans, legislation feedback
pr
and coordination ev
5 ac
k mechanisms
ac ent
tio iv
ns e
b
2 fee
d
wa
ngs rn
COORDINATION AMONG i in
wa
rn
3 gs
NATIONAL SERVICES 3
Meteorological
3
Hydrological warnings
feedback
Geological 5
Marine
Health (etc.)
Research side: International Coordination of
Scientific Research
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)
THORPEX
Northern
Atlantic
Oscillation
Pacific
Decadal
Oscillation
Improving Hazard Warnings Quality and lead times
Short- to
Medium-Range Seasonal Forecasts Long-Term
Weather Short-Term Climate Climate
National Meteorological
and Hydrological Services
18/22
82 % 25/34
74 %
Southeastern Europe
Disaster Risk management Project
UK Flood
CAT Bond & Southeastern and Central European
CAT Bond Markets Risk Insurance Facility
post Hurricane Andrew
2) Develop a joint work plan with World Bank, WFP and WRMA,
etc. and present to WMO governing bodies for endorsement
(2008 - 2009)
requirements
feedback
Climate
products and
service delivery
analysis and
forecasting products data products research products
requirements
feedback
feedback
requirements
input
input
feedback
input
http://www.wmo.int/disasters