Professional Documents
Culture Documents
MANAGEMENT
Dr. Uzair Iqbal, CS Dept., CIIT, Islamabad
The content mainly based on the PMBOK guide, 5th and 6th
edition; and Software extension to the PMBOK guide, PMI, 2013.
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Process 1: Plan Cost Management
The process that establishes the policies, procedures, and documentation for
planning, managing, expending, and controlling project costs
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Figure source: Software Extension to PMBOK® Guide – Fifth Edition, PMI, 2013, pp. 120
Plan Cost Management: Inputs
Project charter
Enterprise environmental factors
Organizational process assets
Financial control procedures
Cost drivers
Size and complexity of software are highly correlated with the effort of software projects
Skill and abilities of software developers
Relationships with customers and other stakeholders
Infrastructure technology
Development tools and environments
Configuration management and independent testing
Complex problem domain and solution domain
Governance policies
Portfolio
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Plan Cost Management: Tools and Techniques
Expert judgment
Analytical techniques
Self-funding, funding with equity, or funding with debt
Making, purchasing, renting, or leasing of project resources
Payback period, return on investment, internal rate of return, discounted cash flow, and net present
value
Meetings
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Plan Cost Management: Outputs [1/2]
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Plan Cost Management: Outputs [2/2]
Accuracy of estimate
Software estimation is error-prone
Rough order-of-magnitude preliminary estimate (± 150% or even more)
Productivity, skills, and motivation are widely variable among software developers
± 50% deviation if requirements and high-level design are stable and the schedule is set
± 10% deviation in case of definitive estimate for 2-4 weeks development cycle
Units of measure
Person-hours or person-days
Function points, objects, user stories, use cases, features, and test cases
Number of lines of software code written does not necessarily correspond to the business value of
software or as a measure of the completion of required software features
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Process 2: Estimate Costs
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Figure source: Software Extension to PMBOK® Guide – Fifth Edition, PMI, 2013, pp. 120
Estimate Costs: Inputs
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Estimate Costs: Tools and Techniques [1/3]
Expert judgment
Analogous estimating
Less costly and less time consuming but generally less accurate
Reliable when the previous projects are really similar
Velocity becomes a more accurate predictor after a team has completed several iterations together
Parametric estimating
Higher levels of accuracy depending upon the sophistication and underlying data built into the model
Bottom-up estimating
Cost and accuracy are typically influenced by the size and complexity of the individual activity or work package
Three-point estimating
Most likely (cM), optimistic (cO), and pessimistic (cP) cost
Triangular and beta distribution
Software component size e.g. small and large
Nodal or merge bias
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Estimate Costs: Tools and Techniques [2/3]
Reserve analysis
Cost of quality
Cost of quality can exert a significant impact on the cost of a software project
Initially identifying quality-critical features and functions can reduce overall cost
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Estimate Costs: Tools and Techniques [3/3]
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Estimate Costs: Outputs
Basis of estimates
The amount and type of additional details vary by application area
Documentation of the basis of the estimate (i.e., how it was developed)
Documentation of all assumptions made
Documentation of any known constraints
Indication of the range of possible estimates (e.g., €10,000 ±10%)
Indication of the confidence level of the final estimate
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Figure source: Software Extension to PMBOK® Guide – Fifth Edition, PMI, 2013, pp. 120
Determine Budget: Inputs
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Determine Budget: Tools and Techniques
Cost aggregation
Reserve analysis
“Cone of uncertainty”
Expert judgment
Historical relationships
The cost and accuracy of analogous and parametric models can vary widely
Historical information used to develop the model is accurate
Parameters used in the model are readily quantifiable
Models are scalable, such that they work for large projects, small projects, and phases of a project
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Determine Budget: Outputs
Cost baseline
The approved version of the time-phased project budget, excluding any management reserves
Changes through formal change control procedures
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Figure source: PMBOK® Guide – Fifth Edition, PMI, 2013, pp. 213
Process 4: Control Costs
Process of monitoring the status of the project to update the project costs
It provides the means to recognize variance from the plan
Effective software project managers constantly monitor changes
Some changes will be in scope and require no changes to effort allocations
Other changes may be out of scope and will require changes to effort
Changes can occur rapidly as a project evolves
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Figure source: Software Extension to PMBOK® Guide – Fifth Edition, PMI, 2013, pp. 120
Control Costs: Inputs
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Control Costs: Tools and Techniques [1/3]
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Control Costs: Tools and Techniques [2/3]
Forecasting
Estimate at completion (EAC) rather than the budget at completion (BAC)
EAC = AC + Bottom-up ETC
EAC forecast for ETC work performed at the budgeted rate
EAC = AC + (BAC – EV)
EAC forecast for ETC work performed at the present CPI
EAC = BAC / CPI
EAC forecast for ETC work considering both SPI and CPI factors
EAC = AC + [(BAC – EV) / (CPI × SPI)]
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Control Costs: Tools and Techniques [3/3]
Performance reviews
Variance analysis
Trend analysis
Earned value performance
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Control Costs: Outputs
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https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/earned-value-management-explained.php
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EXTRA
During the risk management planning process, you first identify and qualify the
risk. The next step is to calculate the contingen
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Since both reserves serve the same purpose, managing risks, many professionals
assume they are the same.
Contingency Reserve
You manage identified risks, or “known-unknown” (known = identified, unknown = risks), with the
Contingency Reserve. This reserve can be measured in either cost or time.
Contingency reserve is identified; it is not a random reserve; it is an estimated reserve based on
various risk management techniques
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Expected Monetary Value
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) = Probability * Impact
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Decision Tree Analysis
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Decision Tree Analysis
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What is Earned Value Analysis
Earned Value Analysis (EVA) is a method that allows the project manager to measure
the amount of work actually performed on a project beyond the basic review of cost
and schedule reports.
EVA provides a method that permits the project to be measured by progress
achieved.
The project manager is then able, using the progress measured, to forecast a
project’s total cost and date of completion, based on trend analysis or application
of the project’s “burn rate”.
This method relies on a key measure known as the project’s earned value
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Earned Value Example
We would like to produce a weekly project update to the Chief Technology Officer.
Budget status
For this project, because this is an example we will simply produce all of the earned value metrics in
one table
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Earned Value Example
Project Planning
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Earned Value Example
Here is what our example project might look like after project planning:
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Earned Value Example
4. Forecasting
Estimate to Complete (ETC)
Estimate at Completion (EAC)
Variance at Completion (VAC)
To Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
5. Reporting
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
After reviewing our time and expense software and compiling any miscellaneous
expenses, we determine that the actual cost of the first task is $4,500 and the
second task is $2,000.
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Schedule Variance (SV)
The schedule variance tells you how far ahead or behind schedule the task is in terms of the
task budget. The formula is:
SV = EV – PV
If SV is negative, the task is behind schedule.
If SV is zero, the task is on schedule
If SV is positive, the task is ahead of schedule.
For example,
SV = -$500 means the project is behind schedule.
SV = $0 means the project is right on schedule.
SV = $500 means the project is ahead of schedule.
With the schedule variance, positive is good.
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Earned Value Example
As you can see, the project has a positive schedule variance because one task is
ahead and the other is behind.
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
For example,
CV = -$1,000 means the project is over budget.
CV = $0 means the project is right on budget.
CV = $1,000 means the project is under budget.
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Earned Value Example
The project is $3,000 over budget on a project value of $25,000. There is clearly a budget
problem, but not a schedule problem.
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
Forecasting
There are four variables which allow the project manager to forecast the future
performance of the project:
Estimate to Complete (ETC)
Estimate at Completion (EAC)
Variance at Completion (VAC)
To Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
The assumption of a one time cost expenditure near the beginning of the project results in
a final project budget of $28,000 versus the $25,000 original budget.
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
This one is relatively simple. If you’ve calculated the EAC you’ve done the big math
already, and the ‘new budget’ can simply be subtracted from the ‘old budget’ to
determine the cost overrun or underrun.
The Variance at Completion is simply a future projected Cost Variance.
It has the same units as CV. It is the same type of element.
We will once again add another column to the table:
Task 100: VAC = $10,000 – $12,500 = -$2,500.
Task 200: VAC = $15,000 – $15,500 = -$500.
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Earned Value Example
Hence, the projected variance is -$3,000, and the project manager could obtain approval for the expected
overrun as early as possible, if necessary.
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
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Earned Value Example
Obviously, the closer the project is to completion the higher the CPI that will be
necessary to complete on budget. It can become extreme near the end.
Also, if the project has already spent more than its budget the TCPI will be negative.
TCPI is the last column in the table. We will assume the project budget has not
been revised (EAC is simply a projection) and the goal is still the original project
budget (formula #1, above).
Task 100: TCPI = ($10,000 – $2,000) / ($10,000 – $4,500) = 1.45.
Task 200: TCPI = ($15,000 – $1,500) / ($15,000 – $2,000) = 1.04.
TOTAL: TCPI = ($25,000 – $3,500) / ($25,000 – $6,500) = 1.16
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Earned Value Example
This project team must be 16% more efficient than they have been to finish on budget.
This table can be reported directly to management.
They might need some training on what the numbers mean but this is not an onerous task.
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Earned Value Example
Conclusion
Congratulations, you have now completed our earned value management tutorial.
We hope you’ve broadened your knowledge base and can use this information to
get better results on real projects.
Drop us a line in the Contact Us section to let us know how you’re applying this
information, and we wish you good luck and much success.
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Reference
http://www.projectengineer.net/tutorials/earned-value-tutorial/earned-value-
example/
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Project Governance
https://
www.pmi.org/learning/library/project-governance-principles-corporate-perspective-
6528
https://www.planview.com/resources/articles/project-portfolio-management-defin
ed
/
https://meisterplan.com/blog/difference-project-management-project-portfolio-
management/
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