CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

the sampling
As the n↑
distribution
sample
becomes
size gets
almost normal
large
regardless of
enough…
shape of
population

x
 SAMPLE MEAN SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION: IF THE
POPULATION IS NOT NORMAL
The Central Limit Theorem states that the
sampling distribution of the sample means
approaches a normal distribution as the 
sample size gets larger — no matter what the
shape of the population distribution. This fact
holds especially true for sample sizes over 30. All
this is saying is that as you take more samples,
especially large ones, your graph of the 
sample means will look more like a normal
distribution.
 SAMPLE MEAN SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION: IF THE
POPULATION IS NOT NORMAL
We can apply the Central Limit Theorem
Even if the population is not normal because
sample means from the population
will be approximately normal as long as
the sample size is large enough.
Properties of the sampling distribution:

σ
μx  and σx 
μ n
 SAMPLE MEAN SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION : IF THE POPULATION
IS NOT NORMAL (continued)
Population Distribution
Sampling
distribution
Properties
Central Tendency

μx 
μ x
μ Sampling Distribution
becomes normal as n increases

Variation Larger
Smaller
Ox = σ
sample
sample size size
n
μx x
HOW LARGE IS LARGE ENOUGH?

For most distributions, n > 30 will give

a sampling distribution that is nearly normal

For fairly symmetric distributions, n > 15

For normal population distributions,

the sampling distribution of the
mean is always normally distributed
 EXAMPLE
Suppose a population has mean μ=8 and
standard deviation σ=3.

Suppose a random sample of size n = 36 is

selected.

What is the probability that the sample mean

is between 7.8 and 8.2?
 EXAMPLE (continued)
Solution:
Even if the population is not Normally
distributed, the central limit theorem can be
used (n > 30) so the sampling distribution

of x is approximately normal.
… with mean μx = 8
σ 3
…and standard deviation o x  n  36  0.5
 EXAMPLE (continued)
Solution (continued):
 
 7.8 - 8 X-μ 8.2 - 8 
P(7.8  X  8.2)  P  3
 3 σ 
 36 n 36 

 P(-0.4  Z  0.4) 0.3108

Population Sampling Standard Normal
Distribution Distribution Distribution -.1554
?? +.1554
? ? ??

? ? Sample Standardize
?? ??

7.8 8.2 -0.4 0.4

Z
μ X μ 8 x μ z
8 X
0
 POPULATIONPROPORTIONS
π = the proportion of the population
having some characteristic
Sample proportion (p) provides an
estimate of π
p = X where 0 ≤ p ≤
n 1
X- no. of items in the sample having the
characteristic of interest
N- sample size
 POPULATIONPROPORTIONS
p is approximately distributed as a
normal distribution when n is large
(assuming sampling with replacement
from a finite population or without
replacement from an infinite population)
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF p
Approximated by a Sampling Distribution
P( ps
normal distribution ) .3
.2
if .1
nπ  5 and 0
0 .2 .4 .6 8 1 p
n(1 π )  5
π(1
where μp π and σ p
π) n

(where π = population
proportion)
 Z-VALUE FOR PROPORTIONS
Standardize p to a Z value with the
formula:
p
p
Z   (1 
σp )n
 EXAMPLE
If the true proportion of voters who
support Proposition A is π = 0.4, what is the
probability that a sample of size 200
yields a sample proportion between 0.40 and
0.45?
if π = 0.4 and n = 200,
i.e.:
what is P(0.40 ≤ p ≤ 0.45)
?
 EXAMPLE (continued)

If π = 0.4 andn = 200, what is P(0.40 ≤

p ≤ 0.45) ?

Find σp : σp   (1  ) 
0.4(1 0.4)
 0.03464
n 200
Convert to standardized normal:
 0.40  0.40 
0.03464
 0.45  0.40 0.03464 
P(0.40  p  0.45)  P Z 
 P(0  Z 
1.44)
 EXAMPLE (continued)
If π = 0.4 and n = 200, what is P(0.40 ≤ p ≤
0.45) ?

Use standardized normal table:

P(0 ≤ Z ≤ 1.44) = 0.4251
Standardized
Sampling Distribution Normal
Distribution 0.4251

Standardize

0.40 0.45 0 1.44

p Z