Statistical methods

1. Pareto diagrams and dot diagrams:

It is essential to collect data to provide the vital information
necessary to solve engineering problems. Graphical
illustration is an effective tool to describe the information.
Pareto diagrams and dot diagrams fall into this category.
Example 1:
A computer-controlled lathe whose performance was
below par, workers recorded the following causes and
their frequencies.
Power fluctuations 6
Controller not stable 22
Operator error 13
Worn tool not replaced 2
Other 5
The data is presented as
a special case of bar
chart called a Pareto
diagram shown in Fig.1.
This diagram shows
Pareto’s empirical law
that any assortment of
events consists of a few
major and many minor
elements. Typically, two
or three elements will
account for more than
half of the total
frequency.
 The figure visually emphasizes the importance of reducing
the frequency of controller misbehavior.

As a second step toward improvement of the process, data

were collected on the deviations of cutting speed from the
target value set by the controller. The seven observed values
of (cutting speed)-(target)
3 6 -2 4 7 4 3
are plotted as a dot diagram shown in Fig.2. The dot diagram
visually summarizes the information that the lathe is,
generally, running fast.
 It helps to develop efficient experimental designs and
methods for identifying primary causal factors that
contribute to the variability in a response such as cutting
speed.
2. Frequency distributions: Properties of frequency
distributions relating to their steps are best exhibited by
means of graphs. Most common form is the histogram. The
histogram of a frequency distribution is constructed of
adjacent rectangles, the height of rectangles represent
external between successive boundaries.
Example 2: A histogram reveals the solution to a grinding
operation problem.
A metallurgical engineer was experiencing trouble with a
grinding operation. The grinding action was produced by
pellets. After some thought he collected the sample of
pellets used for grinding, took them home, spread them out
of his kitchen table, and measured their diameters. His
histogram displayed in Fig.3. What does the histogram
reveal?
Solution:
The histogram exhibits
two distinct peaks, one
for a group of pellets
whose diameters are
centered near 25 and
the other concerned
near 40.
By getting his supplier to
do a better sort, so all
the pellets would be
essentially from the first
group, the engineer
completely solved his
problem.
3. Descriptive Measures:
(a) Mean:
Mean is the average defined by
n

 xi
(1)
x i 1
n
To emphasize that it is based on a set of observation, it is
often referred as Sample mean x .
(b) Median:
It is a descriptive measure of the centre, or location of a set
of data. It is used to eliminate the effect of extreme (very
large or very small) values. The median of n observations
can be defined loosely as the middle most value when the
data is arranged to size. (i.e.)
 n 1 if n is odd
2
average of n n 1 observation if n is even.

2 2
Example 3: Calculation of the sample median with even
sample size
An engineering group receives email requests for technical
information from sales and service persons. The daily
numbers for six days were 11,9,17,19,4, and 15. Find the
mean and the median.
Solution: The mean is
11  9  17  19  4  15 requests
x  12.5
6
and, ordering the data from the smallest to largest
4 9 11 15 17 19
  

the median, the mean of the third and fourth largest values,
is 13 requests. s2
(c)Sample Variance ( ): It xis the average of the squared
deviations from the mean .
n
 
2

(2) x i x
s2  i 1
n 1

 x  x
i
There are (n-1) independent deviations .
Example 4: Calculation of sample variance
The delay times (handling, setting, and positioning the
tools) for cutting 6 parts on an engine lathe are 0.6, 1.2,
2
0.9, 1.0, 0.6, and 0.8 minutes. Calculate s .

Solution: First we calculate the mean:

0.6  1.2  0.9  1.0  0.6  0.8

x  0.85
6

 x  x
2
Then we set up the work required i to find in
the following table:
We divide 0.2750 by (6 – 1) = 5 to obtain
0.2750
s 
2
 0.055 (min ute) 2

5
 2
(d) Standard deviation: In the above example, s is in
wrong limits (minutes)2. Hence, standard deviation of n
observations x1 , x2 ,...., xn is defined as the square root
of their variance.

 x  x
n 2
i (3)
s i 1
n 1
Example 5: Calculation of sample standard deviation
With reference to the previous example, calculate s.
Solution: From the previous example, s 2  0.055 . Take the
square root and get

s  0.055  0.23 minutes

 The standard deviation and the variance are measures of
absolute variation, that is, they measure the actual
amount of variation in a set of data, and they depend on the
scale of measurement. To compare the variation in several
sets of data, it is generally desirable to use a measure of
relative variation, for instance, the coefficient of
variation, which gives the standard deviation as a
percentage of the mean.

(e)Coefficient of variation:

s
V  .100
x (4)
Example 6: The coefficient of variation for comparing
relative preciseness
Measurements made with one micrometer of the diameter of
a ball bearing have a mean of 3.92 mm and a standard
deviation of 0.015 mm, whereas measurements made with
another micrometer of the outstretched length of a spring
have a mean of 1.54 inches and a standard deviation of
0.008 inch. Which of these two measuring instruments is
relatively more precise?

Solution: For the first micrometer the coefficient of variation

is 0.015
V .100  0.38%
3.92
And for the second micrometer the coefficient of variation is

0.008
V .100  0.52%
1.54
Thus, the measurements made with the first micrometer are
relatively more precise.

4. Permutations and Combinations:

(a) Permutations: The number permutations of r objects
selected from a set of n distinct objects is

n(n  1)(n  2).......(n  r  1)(n  r )! n!

n Pr   (5)
(n  r )! (n  r )!
Example 7: Evaluating a permutation
In how many different ways can one make a first, second,
third, and fourth choice among 12 firms leasing
construction equipment?
Solution: For n = 12 and r = 4, the first formula yields
12! 12! 12.11.10.9.8!
12 P4     11,880
(12  4)! 8! 8!

Example 8: The number of ways to assemble chips in a

controller
An electronic controlling mechanism requires 5 identical
memory chips. In how many ways can this mechanism be
assembled by placing the 5 chips in the 5 positions within
the controller?
Solution: For n = 5 and r = 5, the first formula yields

P  5.4.3.2.1  120
5 5

And the second formula yields

5! 5!
5 P5    5!  120
 5  5 ! 0!
(b) Combinations:
Combination of n objects taken r at a time and denoted by

n
n Cr or r
 

 n  n(n  1)(n  2).....(n  r  1)

r (6a)
  r!

n n!
or r (6b)
  r !(n  r )!
Example 9: Evaluating a combination
In how many ways different ways can 3 of 20 laboratory
assistants be chosen to assist with an experiment?
Solution: For n= 20 and r = 3, the first formula for

n  20  20.19.18
 r  yields  3   1,140
  3!
 
Example 10: Selection of machines for an experiment
A calibration study needs to be conducted to see if the
readings on 15 test machines are giving similar results. In
how many ways can 3 of the 15 be selected for the initial
investigation?
Solution:
15  15.14.13
 3   455 ways
  3.2.1
 Note that selecting which 3 machines to use is the same as
selecting which 12 not to include. That is, according to the
second formula  15  15! 15!  15 
 12   12!3!  3!12!   3 
   

Example 11: The number of choices of new researchers

In how many different ways can the director of a research
laboratory choose 2 chemists from among 7 applicants and
3 physicists from among 9 applicants?
7
Solution: The 2 chemists can be chosen in  2   21
ways and
 
9
the 3 physicists can be chosen in  3   84 ways. By the
multiplication rule, the whole selection can be made in
21 * 84 = 1,764 ways
5. Probability:
If there are n equally likely possibilities, of which one must
occur and s are regarded as favorable, or as a “success,”
then the probability of a “success” is given by s .
n

Example 12: Well-shuffled cards are equally likely to be

selected.
What is the probability of drawing an ace from a well-
shuffled deck of 52 playing cards?

Solution: There are s = 4 aces among the n = 52 cards, so

we get s 4 1
 
n 52 13
Example 13: Random selection results in the equally likely
case
If 3 of 20 tires in storage are defective and 4 of them are
randomly chosen for inspection (that is, each tire has the
same chance of being selected), what is the probability that
only one of the defective tires will be included?

Solution: There are  20   4,845 equally likely ways of choosing 4

 4  The number of favorable outcomes is
of 20 tires, so n = 4,845.
the number of ways in which one of the defective tires and
three of the nondefective tires can be selected, or
 3 17 
s      3* 680  2,040.
 1  3 
It follows that the probability is s 2,040 8
 
n 4,845 19
or approximately 0.42
(a) The frequency interpretation of probability
The probability of an event (or outcome) is the proportion
of times the event would occur in a long run of repeated
experiments.
Example14:Long-run relative frequency approximation
of probability
If records show that 294 of 300 ceramic insulators tested
were able to withstand a certain thermal shock, what is the
probability that any one untested insulator will be able to
withstand the thermal shock?
294
Solution: Among the insulators tested,300  0.98
were able
to withstand the thermal shock, and we use this figure as
an estimate of the probability.
(b) Axioms of Probability:
Axiom 1 0  P ( A)  1 for each event A in S. (7a)
Axiom 2 P( S ) (7b)
1
Axiom 3 If A and B are mutually exclusive events in S, then
P  A  B   P ( A)  P ( B ). (7c)

The first axioms states that probabilities are real numbers on

the interval from 0 to 1. The second axiom states that the
sample space as a whole is assigned a probability of 1 and
this expresses the idea that the probability of a certain
event, an event which must happen, is equal to 1. The third
axiom states that probability functions must be additive.
(c) General addition rule of probability
Theorem: If A and B are any events in S, then
P  A  B   P ( A)  P ( B )  P  A  B  (8)
Example 15: Using the general addition rule for
probability
With reference to the lawn-mower-rating example, find the
probability that a lawn mower will be rated easy to operate
or having high average cost of repairs, namely P  E1  C1  .
Solution: Given, P  E1   0.40, P  C1   0.30 and P  E1  C1   0.12
we substitute into the formula of above theorem and get
P  E1  C1   0.40  0.30  0.12  0.58
Example 16: The probability of requiring repair under
warranty.
If the probabilities are 0.87, 0.36, and 0.29 that, while
under warranty, a new car will require repairs on the
engine, drive train, and both, what is the probability that a
car will require one or the other or both kinds of repairs
under the warranty?
Solution: Substituting these given values into the formula of
above theorem, we get
0.87  0.36  0.29  0.94
(d) Conditional Probability:
If A and B are any events in S and P( B)  0 , the
conditional probability of A given B is
P A  B

P AB  P( B) (9)
Example 17: Calculating a conditional probability
If the probability that a communication system will have high
fidelity is 0.81 and the probability that it will have high
fidelity and high selectivity is 0.18, what is the probability
that a system with high fidelity will also have high
selectivity?
Solution: If A is the event that a communication system has
high selectivity and B is the event that it has high fidelity,
we have
P  B   0.81 and P  A  B   0.18,
and substitution into the formula yields


P AB  
0.18 2

0.81 9
Example 18: The conditional probability that a lawn
mover is easy to operate given that repairs are costly
Referring to the lawn-mower-rating example, for which the
probabilities of the individual outcomes are given in fig 1,
use the results obtained to find P( E1 C1 )
Solution: Since we had

P  E1  C1   0.12 and P  C1   0.30,

substitution into the formula for a conditional probability
yields


P E1C1 0.12
0.30
 0.40
(e) General multiplication rule of probability
Theorem: If A and B are any events in S, then

P  A  B   P ( A).P ( B A) if P ( A)  0
(10)
 P( B ).P( A B ) if P ( B )  0
Example 19: Using the general multiplication rule of
probability
The supervisor of a group of 20 construction workers wants
to get the opinion of 2 of them ( to be selected at random)
about certain new safety regulations. If 12 workers favor
the new regulations and the other 8 are against them,
what is the probability that both of the workers chosen by
the supervisor will be against the new safety regulations?
Solution: Assuming equal probabilities for each selection
(which is what we mean by the selections being random),
the probability that the first worker selected will be against
8
the new safety regulations is 20 , and the probability that
the second worker selected will be against the new safety
regulations given that the first one is against them is
7 Thus, the desired probability is 8 7 14
.  .
19 20 19 95

(f) Special product rule of probability

Two events A and B are independent events if and only if

(11) P  A  B   P ( A).P ( B )
Example 20: The outcome to unrelated parts of an
experiment can be treated as independent
What is the probability of getting two heads in two flips of
a balanced coin?
1
Solution: Since the probability of heads is for each flip
2
and the two flips are independent the probability is
1 1 1
.  .
2 2 4
Example 21: Independence and selection with and
without replacement
Two cards are drawn at random from an ordinary deck
of 52 playing cards. What is the probability of getting two
aces if
(a) the first card is replaced before the second card is drawn;
(b) The first card is not replaced before the second card is
drawn?
Solution:
(a) Since there are four aces among the 52 cards, we get

4 4 1
.  .
52 52
(b) Since there are only three169
aces among the 51 cards that
remain after one ace has been removed from the deck,
we get
4 3 1
.  .
52 51 221

Note that 1  4 . 4 , so independence is violated when the

sampling is221 52 52
without replacement.
Example 22: Checking if two events are independent
under an assigned probability
If P  C   0.65, P  D   0.40 and P  C  D  are the events
C and D independent?
Solution: Since P  C  .P  D    0.65   0.40   0.26 and not 0.24,
the two events are not independent.

Example 23: Assigning probability by the special

product rule
Let A be the event that raw material is available when
needed and B be the event that the machining time is less
than 1 hour. If P  A   0.8 and P  B   0.7, assign
probability to the event A  B
Solution: Since the events A and B concern unrelated steps
in the manufacturing process, we invoke independence
and make the assignment
P  A  B   P  A  .P  B    0.8  .  0.7   0.56

Example 24: The extended special product rule of

probability
What is the probability of not rolling any 6’s in four rolls of
a balanced die?
Solution: The probability is
5 5 5 5 625
. . .  .
6 6 6 6 1, 296
6. Bayes’ Theorem:
(a) Rule of elimination:
Theorem: If B1 , B2 , ..., Bn are mutually exclusive events
of which one must occur, then
n
P  A    P ( Bi ).P ( A Bi ) (12)
i 1

(b) Bayes’ Theorem: If B1 , B2 , ..., Bn are mutually

exclusive events of which one must occur, then

P  Br  .P  A Br 
P  Br A   n (13)
 P( B ).P( A B )
i 1
i i

for r  1, 2,......, n.
Example 25: Using Bayes’ Theorem
Four technicians regularly make repairs when breakdowns
occur on an automated production line. Jagat, who
services 20% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete
repair 1 time in 20; Tyagarajan, who services 60% of the
breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in 10;
Guna, who services 15% of the breakdowns, makes an
incomplete repair 1 time in 10; and Pandyan, who services
5% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time
in 20. For the next problem with the production line
diagnosed as being due to an initial repair that was
incomplete, what is the probability that this initial repair
was made by Jagat?
Solution: Substituting the various probabilities into the
formula of Bayes’ Theorem, we get

 
P B1 A 
(0.20)(0.05)
(0.20)(0.05)  (0.60)(0.10)  (0.15)(0.10)  (0.05)(0.05)
 0.114

and it is of interest to note that although Jagat makes an

incomplete repair only 1 out of 20 times, namely, 5% of the
breakdowns, more than 11% of the incomplete repairs are
his responsibility.
7. Mathematical expectation of Decision making.
If the probabilities of obtaining the amounts
a1 , a2 ,......., or ak are p1 , p2 ,......., and pk , then the
mathematical expectation is
E  a p  a p  .....  a p
1 1 2 2 k k
(14)
Example 26: Mathematical expectation of net profit
A distributor makes a profit of Rs 200 on an item if it is
shipped from the factory in perfect condition and arrives on
time, but it is reduced by Rs 20 if it does not arrive on
time, and by Rs 120 regardless of whether it arrives on
time if it is not shipped from the factory in perfect
condition. If 70% of such items are shipped in perfect
condition and arrive on time, 10% are shipped in perfect
condition but do not arrive on time and 20 % are not
shipped in perfect condition, what is the distributor’s
expected profit per item?
Solution: We can argue that the distributor will make the Rs
200 profit 70 % of the time, the Rs180 profit 10 % of the
time, and the Rs80 profit 20 % of the time, so that the
average profit per item ( the expected profit) is

200(0.70)  180(0.10)  80(0.20)  Rs174

The result is the sum of the products obtained by

multiplying each amount by the corresponding proportion
or probability.
8.Probability Distributions:
Random variables: They are functions defined over the
elements of a sample space. They are denoted with
capital letters X, Y and so on to distinguish them from their
possible values given in lower case.
The function f(x) = P(X=x) which assigns probability to
each possible outcome x that is called the probability
distribution.
Random variables are usually classified according to the
number of values which they can assume. Discrete
random variables can take only a finite number, or a
countable infinity of values.
1 x  1, 2,3, 4,5,6
f ( x)  for
6
 Gives the probability distribution for the number of points
we roll with a balanced die.
Since the values of probability distributions are
probabilities and one value of a random variable must
always occur (i.e)
f ( x )  0 for all x
and 
all x
f ( x)  1
Example 27: Checking for nonnegativity and total
probability equals one
Check whether the following can serve as probability
distributions:
x2
(a) f ( x)  for x = 1,2,3,4
2
2
(b) x for x = 0,1,2,3,4
h( x ) 
25
Solution: (a) This function cannot serve as a probability
distribution because f(1) is negative
(b) The function cannot serve as a probability distribution
because the sum of the five probabilities is 6 and
not 1. 5

9.Binomial Distribution:
Many statistical problems deal with the situations
referred to as repeated trials. For example we may want
to know
(i) The probability that one of five rivets will rupture in a
tensile test.
(ii) The probability that 9 of 10 VCRs will run at least
1000hours
 In determining the probability the following assumptions
are made
1. There are only two possible outcomes for each trial.
2. The probability of a success is the same for each trial.
3. There are n trials, where n is a constant.
4. The n trials are independent.

Trials satisfying these assumptions are referred to as

Bernoulli trials.

Let X: be the random variable that equals the

number of successes in n trials.
p: Probability of success on any one trial.
(1-p): Probability of failure on any one trial.
The probability of getting x success and (n-x) failures in some
x
specific order is  p) nnumber
p x (1The of ways in which x
 n
trials can be selected is , the number xof combinations of x
objects selected from a set of n objects, and we arrive at


for x = 0,1,2,……,n
b ( x; n , p )  n p x (1  p ) n x
This probability distributions
x is called the binomial
distribution because for x = 0,1,2,….., and n, the values of
the probabilities are the successive terms of binomial
expansion of ; for the same reason, the
  are referred to as binomial
n
p 
combinatorial quantities(1  p )

coefficients. Actually, then preceding equation defines a
x
family of probability distributions with each member
characterized by a given value of the parameter p and the
number of trials n.
Example 28: Evaluating binomial probabilities
It has been claimed that in 60% of all solar heat installations
the utility bill is reduced by at least one-third.
Accordingly, what are the probabilities that the utility bill
will be reduced by at least one-third in
(a) four of five installations;
(b) at least four of five installations?
Solution: (a) Substituting x=4, n=5, and p=0.60 into the
formula for the binomial distribution, we get

b(4;5,0.60)  5
4  
0.60 
4
(1  0.60) 5 4
 0.259
(b) Substituting x=5, n=5, and p=0.60 into the formula for the
binomial distribution, we get

b(5;5,0.60)  5
5 
 0.60 
5
(1  0.60) 55
 0.078

and the answer is

b(4;5,0.60)  b(4;5,0.60)  0.259  0.078  0.337