INCOME Investment and Interest Rate The main determinant of AD that is susceptible to interest rate changes is investment (I).
It is the cost of borrowed funds used to finance
investment by firms.
So if interest rate rises, cost of borrowing
increases, as a result, it lowers the inducement to invest. Therefore, if ‘i’ increases, ‘I’ falls. IS CURVE IS-LM model criticised by many economists. Some say it’s outdated.
But more pragmatic economists like Mankiw
defended the IS-LM model strongly.
IS curve shows the relationship between
interest rates and income, that is, it shows the equilibrium in the goods market. IS Curve IS: Investment = Savings
Lets assume, investment is no more exogenous.
It is endogenous. Therefore, I= I (Y, i). Y rises, I rises. ‘i’ rises, ‘I’ decreases. Any point along the IS curve is an equilibrium of the goods market. It includes all the combinations of interest rates and output where this I= S holds true (or in other words, demand= production). Slope of IS Curve The magnitude of the increase in investment demand due to a fall in interest rate depends on the interest sensitivity of investment demand.
The change in output is affected by interest
rates, that is, slope of the IS curve depends on: the interest sensitivity of investment (h), the marginal propensity to consume (c), and the tax rate, (t). Slope of IS Curve Increase in ‘h’ reduces the absolute value of the slope implying a flatter IS curve. We get a flatter IS curve when ‘c’ increases or when ‘t’ is reduced.
Figure 5.4 (page 121)- The marginal propensity to
consume and the slope of the IS curve. An increase in ‘c’ increases the multiplier, which in turn increases the income. AD shifts anti- clockwise, output goes up and the IS also shifts and is flatter. Shift of IS curve If ‘G’ increases, IS shifts right. If taxes increase, IS shifts left (for any given interest rate). For any increase in ΔG, the shift in equilibrium income is equal to μΔG. μ is the multiplier effect.
Figure 5.5
The amount of the shift or the increase in
equilibrium income at either interest rate is equal to μΔḠ. Points off the IS curve Figure 5.6: Points to the right of IS curve implies excess supply compared to demand, so there is an increase in unintended inventory investment. Firms need to cut back their production. So, the economy moves back to E1.
Points to the left of IS curve implies excess
demand compared to supply. So, to meet this demand, firms give away their unintended investment, and starts to produce more. So output moves from Y1 to Y2, point E2. LM CURVE This curve illustrates the equilibrium in the money market (i.e. Financial market equilibrium).
Money is dependent on two things- income and interest
rates.
Income increases, need for transaction increases, so demand
for money increases. This is known as transactions demand for money.
Interest rates increase, the opportunity cost of holding money
and not investing in bonds increase, so demand for money decreases (negative relationship)- Speculative demand for money. LM Curve The LM curve slopes upward because a rise in income increases the demand for money, which in turn requires the interest rate to rise because the rise in interest rate reduces the speculative demand for money by an equal amount, thereby bringing the money market back to equilibrium. LM Curve (Slope and Position)
A one dollar increase in income increases the
demand for money by ‘k’ dollars, and a 1% increase in interest rate reduces the money demand by ‘l’ dollars.
The slope of the LM depends on two parameters, k
and l. The greater the sensitivity of demand for money to changes in income, as measured by k, and the lower the responsiveness of demand to interest rates, the greater the slope of demand for money. LM Curve An increase in ‘k’ implies that any real income now requires a larger transaction balance will have to be spent from speculative balance of money. In order to induce people to spend this additional amount, the interest rate has to go up by a greater amount. Therefore, LM curve is steeper. Points off the LM curve All points above and to the left of the LM curve represent points of excess supply of money in the money market.
All points below the LM curve represent excess
money demand. Shifts in the LM curve LM curve shifts for two reasons:
Money supply in the economy- Money supply
increases, LM shifts rightwards.
Price level changes in the economy- Price level
increases, people start making less transactions, so money supply decreases, LM shifts leftwards. Adjustments in the money market Figure 5.13: At E4, demand for money exceeds supply. This also means, supply of bonds exceeds demand. In order to reduce the bonds supply and increase money supply, people start selling bonds. This drives down the price of bonds and raises the interest rate until people are willing to hold the existing supply of money and bonds. Adjustments in the money market Figure 5.13: At E3, supply of money is higher. This implies a higher demand for bonds. Bond prices rise, which in turn decreases the interest rate to move down until the economy is in equilibrium.
Thus, if there is a disequilibrium in the money
market, the interest rate adjusts to reach equilibrium. Velocity of Money The frequency at which the average unit of currency is used to purchase newly domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. It is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time.
Interest rate in the economy affects velocity of
money. An increase in ‘i’ raises the opportunity cost of holding money, encouraging people to hold more bonds than money. So people economise on holding money. The velocity increases. Velocity of Money
Economies that exhibit a higher velocity of
money relative to others tend to be further along in the business cycle and should have a higher rate of inflation, all things held constant. Velocity rises as we move up along the LM curve.