Seminar on International Politics – Central

Asian Republics

“The New Great Game” and Implications

for Pakistan
 Sequence
• Abstract
• Introduction
• Historical Background of the Great Games
– The Great Game
– The New Great Game
• Central Asian Relations with the Subcontinent: the
Historical Perspective
• The Significance Of Central Asia In Various Fields
– Economic Significance
– Geo-Strategic Significance
 Sequence
• Potential of the Central Asian republics
– Oil and Gas Potential
– Trade Potentials
– Pipelines Potentials
• Major players and their interests in The New Great
Game (US, Russia, Iran, China, Turkey ,India)
• The Implications of New Great Game and interests of
Pakistan
• Findings
• Conclusion
• Recommendations
 Abstract
• A new "Great Game" is going on, in Central Asia, one
in which not only the powers on the borders
compete for influence, but also one in which the
Central Asian states themselves are active players
• Serious political, economic, ethnic, religious, and
social challenges are facing up to the five Central
Asian states
• The founding issues are the ethnic composition of
each state and the ability of each republic to shape a
"nation" within the simulated boundaries inherited
from the Soviet empire
 Abstract
• Iran has imperative interests in the maintenance of
peace and stability within the region, but its
international isolation and outsider status prevent
direct action in support of its legitimate security
concerns
• Pakistan hopes that the new states of Central Asia
would provide it with Islamic alliance, and collective
security partners in its resist with India
 Abstract
• India fears that Central Asian border realignment,
ethnic disputes, and reemergence of Islam or civil
war would directly affect the territorial integrity of
Afghanistan, which, in domino effect, would
influence Pakistan, Iran, and Kashmir
• Russia seeks to prevent other states from achieving
regional hegemony, protect and expand its own
economic interests, protect ethnic Russians living in
the region, and stop the spread of Islamic
fundamentalism
 Abstract
• China also hopes to use Central Asian markets as a
channel to increase a new prosperity zone in
Xinjiang, revive the Silk Route for international trade,
and gain access to Central Asian energy resources
 Introduction
• The main issue with Asian countries, especially
Central Asian, as a regional security is economic
• A strong, energetic market economy is a prerequisite
for political stability and the growth of democracy
• Political stability is itself a basic element to
economic growth; peace in the region, especially in
Tajikistan and Afghanistan must be gained before
that economic impression becomes unavoidable
• Serious political, economic, ethnic, religious, and
social challenges confront the five new Central Asian
states in this pursuit for local security
 Introduction
• The colossal oil and gas reserves of the region have
lured both regional and far-off nations to push into
the game of interests
• Each player is striving hard to outplay the other
Russia, the USA, Iran, Turkey, India, are intent upon
gaining a foothold in the region
• On the one hand, the Central Asian states need to
institute their identity, redefine their political
standing in international relations, and chalk out
their national strategies to engage in their problems
through economic development
 Introduction
• On the other hand, the world’s well-established
nations are all set to develop the compulsions of
these new born states to their own political and
economic benefits
• Pakistan is situated at the crossing point of Central
Asia and South Asia and provides these landlocked
states with the shortest route to the Arabian Sea
 Aim

• To carry out a broad analysis of the sprouting

dynamics of Central Asia, in an effort to understand
the capacity of the potential implications for Pakistan
• Consequently, it will integrate recommendations
that could help Pakistan to secure its interests in
Central Asia to the maximum extent possible
 Historical Background of Great Games
• The Old Great Game
– From 1813 to 1907 Great Britain and Tsarist
Russia were engaged in a strategic competition
for domination of Central Asia, known in
Britain as “The Great Game”, and in Russia as
the “Tournament of Shadows”
– The British feared that Russian control of
Central Asia would create an ideal launching
pad for an invasion of Britain’s territories in
the subcontinent, and were especially
concerned about Russia approach to a warm
water port
 Historical Background of Great Games
• The Old Great Game
– The British sea power and base in the Indian subcontinent served as
the platform for a thrust Northwest into Central Asia, while the
Russian empire pressed southwards from the North
– The conflict always threatened, but never broke out into direct
warfare between the two sides however, the centre of activity
remained Afghanistan
 Historical Background of Great Games

• The Old Great Game

– In May 1921, Afghanistan and the Russian Soviet
Republic signed a Treaty of Friendship by providing
them with cash, technology, and military
equipment
– British and Soviet interests were temporary
aligned with the advent of World War, which help
bring a period of cooperation between the two,
resultantly this phase of the Great Game between
the two powers came to an end
 Historical Background of Great Games

• The New Great Game

– In the present-day scenario, the Russian Federation is
trying to maintain its monopoly on Central Asia’s
resources, to secure its vital strategic interests
– On the other hand, these Russian efforts are perceived by
the United States as threatening to its vital interests
– To protect these interests, US policy-makers have adopted
strategies to undermine Russian influence in the region
 Historical Background of Great Games

• The New Great Game

– With the independence of Central Asian States the “New
Great Game” began with new players and renewed aims,
which may not include physical suppression of Central Asia
– The new independent states freed from Soviet bondage,
looked beyond Moscow for investors in their vast oil and
gas fields
Central Asian Relations with the Subcontinent:
the Historical Perspective
• The impact of pre-Islamic Iranian civilization, Islam, the Turks,
the Mongols, and, finally, the Russian empire is very evident in
the history of the Central Asian states
• In the thirteenth century, various Central Asian states, and
China, came closer to each other due to Mongol rule
• The Gakkars of Punjab and the Sammas of Sindh established
friendly relations with Central Asia
• Caravans moved freely between Samarkand, Multan, and
Lahore
• It was not just commodities that crossed borders but also men
of learning and those equiped with spiritual missions, breaking
geographical barriers, mixing with the people to teach them
lessons of love, brotherhood, and fellow-feeling
Central Asian Relations with the Subcontinent:
the Historical Perspective

• Commercial projects took new shape silk, carpets, rugs,

precious stones, books, manuscripts, painted designs, silver
and copper wares, gold, ceramic and leather goods, and
several other items of trade passed from Central Asia to the
area that today forms Pakistan
• The linkages were so deep and strong that the feeling of
affinity between the peoples of the two regions could not be
extinguished despite the passage of time and the suppressive
efforts of the colonial powers
 The Significance Of Central Asia In Various
Fields

• These oil and gas reserves are very crucial in fueling the global
economy in the near future especially, on the face of
depleting hydrocarbon resources in the Middle East
• It also possesses a considerable reservoir of fairly literate and
skilled manpower
• Economic Significance
– The region’s population is 55 million, which represents a sizeable
consumer market
– It also has oil and gas reserves, estimated at 23 billion tons of oil and
3,000 billion cubic meters of gas
– The area comprising the Central Asian states, along with its historical
regional partners, can emerge as one of the most powerful economic
centers in the world
 The Significance Of Central Asia In Various
Fields
• Geo-Strategic Significance
– This vast area is centrally situated between the eastern
and the western, as well as the northern and the southern
parts of the Eurasian landmass
– The region also derives its strategic significance from the
fact that it borders two of the five permanent members of
the United Nations Security Council – China and Russia
– Through China, Iran, and Pakistan, it has access to the
Pacific coast, the Persian Gulf, and the Indian Ocean,
respectively
– Once intra-regional communication links have been
established in the region, It has the potential to become
the energy nerve centre of the world
 Major players and their Interests in The New
Great Game
• The Interests of United States
– It says it is interested in the emergence of western-style
democratic institutions, free-market economy, political
stability, human rights, and environmental issues
– Washington wants an opportunity to participate in the
economic development of the CAS through multinational
corporations
– Washington has three main policy goals in the region: first,
to ensure the ‘sovereignty’ and ‘independence’ of the
countries of the region; second, to exploit their oil and gas
reserves, third goal is to concentrate on neutralizing
Russian influence in the region
 Major players and their interests in The New
Great Game
• The Interests of Russia
– The Russian Federation is interested in the region’s oil and gas
reserves and seeks to direct the export routes and pipelines through
its territory, not merely for the financial benefits and economic
advantages it will bring to the Federation but also to maintain its
hegemonic role in the region
• The Interests of China
– China’s basic policy objectives towards Central Asia are,
– Good-neighbourly relations in the interest of peace and stability
– Prevention of Central Asian interference in its internal affairs, specially
in the Xinjiang (Muslim) and Tibet regions
– Good relations with Russia on international issues and improvement
in trade relations, development of diversified transportation corridors
from the region to facilitate the flow of trade, and energy and mineral
resources
 Major players and their interests in The New
Great Game
• The Interests of Iran
– Iran does seek closer economic ties with the south Caucasus and has
made special efforts to trade with Central Asia, especially
Turkmenistan
• The Interests of Turkey
– Turkey’s major interest in the region is commercial
– This involves its stake in Central Asian energy production and
transportation as a participant and as a buyer
– Its main interest in Central Asia’s natural gas is as a consumer and the
Turkish gas market is very large. Turkey is also interested in a major
pipeline project
• The Interests of India
– India is seeking avenues to derive economic benefits from Central
Asia. India’s main interest in Central Asia is to counter Pakistan; hence
its policy is Pakistan-centred
 The Implications of New Great Game and interests of
Pakistan
• Strategic Interests
– Since independence, there has been a perceived threat to
Pakistan from Indian’s hostile designs. After the
disintegration of the USSR, Pakistan found an opportunity
to establish good relations with the CAS as a
counterweight to the Indian threat
• Political Interests
– The newly independent republics share a feeling of
attraction and similarity with Pakistan, since they retained
Islamic links as the symbol of their unique cultural identity
throughout the years of Soviet rule
– They have emerged as a group of countries with which
Pakistan can develop significant co-operation in many
areas
The Implications of New Great Game and interests of
Pakistan
• Economic Interests
– For Pakistan, access to wheat, cotton, natural gas and oil
constitute strategic priorities
– The Indus Basin corridor, as a north-south land-sea
transportation route facilitator, enhances the significance
of Pakistan in the expansion of future gas/oil pipeline
routes toward South Asia and remains vital for Central
Asia and China
 Findings(Common)
• The colossal oil and gas reserves of the region have lured both
regional and far-off nations to push into the game of interests
• The Central Asian states need to institute their identity,
redefine their political standing in international relations, and
chalk out their national strategies to engage in their problems
through economic development
• The area comprising the Central Asian states, along with its
historical regional partners, can emerge as one of the most
powerful economic centers in the world
• The Caspian region contains vast resources and might prove
to be the third largest in the world, after western Siberia and
the Persian Gulf; with prospecting and development within
the next 15 to 20 years, they might turn out to be large
enough to replace the Gulf for second place
 Findings
• Pakistan also can play a role in boosting the Central Asian
economies by providing cost-effective land routes; in the
process, its own economy will benefit greatly. It can serve as a
strategic bridge, linking the CAS with the Southeast Asia
• As the Central Asian states have no access to the sea–the
basic requirement for major international trade and
commerce–their trade has to be routed through another
country with developed seaports.
• Karachi and Gwadar, will provide the nearest approach to the
warm waters of the Arabian Sea and offer the main outlet for
trade expansion to the Central Asian states
 Findings(Pak specific)
• The Indus Basin corridor, as a north-south land-sea
transportation route facilitator, enhances the significance of
Pakistan in the expansion of future gas/oil pipeline routes
toward South Asia and remains vital for Central Asia and
China
• There is vast scope for economic co-operation between
Central Asia and Pakistan:
– Kazakhstan is rich in petroleum, iron ore, and other minerals
– Uzbekistan has large gold deposits and it is a major cotton producer
– Tajikistan has large aluminum deposits
– Turkmenistan has large reserves of natural gas
 Findings
• Pakistan can import all this and, in return, can offer assistance
in the area of
– Textiles, hotel industry,
– Banking, insurance, drugs
– Pharmaceuticals, and agriculture
• Pakistan can also offer education and training facilities to
Central Asian students, journalists, and diplomats
 Conclusion
• Pakistan must endeavour to convince the leaders of
these states that it provides them the best possible
outlet towards the Arabian Sea
• At the same time, Pakistan should emphasize the
traditional and historical links with the region
• Its declared policy should be the cultivation of
durable relations with Central Asia on the basis of
joint ventures, including the establishing of business
and trading houses, banks, insurance groups, and
professional services
 Recommendations
It is said that nations have no friends but
interests
• Pakistan should establish bilateral relations with each Central
Asian state independently because all of them are following
independent foreign policies and want the world to recognize
them on the basis of their individuality
• Pakistan’s policy should be based on ‘friendship’. Pakistan’s
relations with regional states should be based on economic
and political interests
• In order to promote foreign investment in each state,
chambers of commerce, stock exchanges, and banks should
be established to provide professional guidance needed by
the business communities; Pakistan should then work in
collaboration with the institutions of these countries
 Recommendations
• There should be frequent exchange of visits of scholars,
cultural representatives, and government officials to develop
better mutual understanding. Such an exchange can be
established on a regular basis, under sponsorship from the
respective governments or by NGOs
• Pakistan can establish cultural centers in the cities of the CAS,
to promote cultural ties and commonalities between Central
Asia and Pakistan
• Expansion and improvement of the existing railway network is
essential for better transportation of goods at cheaper rates.
Though it will cost more, it should be accorded greater
priority, as it will mean a quantum increase in rail traffic and
goods
 Recommendations

• India is active in Central Asia, with a special interest in trying

to undermine Pakistan’s interests
• Pakistan needs to be vigilant where Indian activities in the
region are concerned, and to work out strategies to counter
them effectively