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access to Contemporary Southeast Asia
of how both sides perceive the world and how best to ensure their
respective strategic and security interests.
My contention is that the relationship between China and Southeast
Asia will inevitably be deeply influenced by both history and culture,
difficult though these are to factor into international relations theory.
Only thus will it be possible to predict the likely responses of the
nations of Southeast Asia confronted by the growing might of China.
Extending Theory
If the September 11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington
taught us anything, it is surely that people see the world in very
different ways. What is less obvious, except in the case of irrational
tyrants, is that states do too. Insofar as the strategic goals of states
embody the aspirations of political leaders and elites, they also embody
their different views of the world. The compromises and agreements
that are regularly worked out between states tend to obscure these
differences, however, for it is an easy assumption to make that the other
side sees the world in a similarly "rational" and "realistic" way. This is
particularly the case where there are great disparities of power, for
there is little incentive for the powerful to make much effort to
understand the weak. Moreover, the practice of international relations
tends to take little account of cultural differences, which are notoriously
difficult to pin down as causes of misunderstanding and conflict between
states. Yet agreements in international relations are often little more
than temporary accommodations to be honoured only until relations of
power change. This is because in many cases they fail to reflect a
genuine meeting of minds, due not so much to unstated reservations on
one or both sides (the Machiavellian explanation), but to an inability to
understand how situations or events could be differently construed.
States sometimes act in irrational ways; "irrational", that is, in
terms of the rational decision-making and game theory models beloved
by the realists in assessing likely outcomes. This could be due to the
pursuit of purely selfish or corrupt interests by a powerful elite (for
example, the purchase of expensive defence equipment by an
impoverished state, either for a ruling elite to remain in power, or
obtain monetary reward); or be driven by ideology (as when Hitler
invaded the Soviet Union, thereby committing Germany to a war on
two fronts). But there are other cases the explanation of which require
more searching investigation into the influence of culture and history
(as, for example, the decisions leading up to the outbreak of the Third
Indochina War between Vietnam and Cambodia and China and Vietnam,
a distinctive and lasting set of beliefs, values and habits regarding the
threat and use of force, which have their roots in such fundamental
influences as geopolitical setting, history and political culture.13
options only come into play when peaceful relations between states
have broken down, what we need is a conceptual framework that
includes both peace and war. We need to understand how each state
and nation has historically developed its own foreign relations culture,
including not just strategic and military considerations (under what
circumstances force is deemed a legitimate or necessary response), but
also how peaceful intercourse with other states should normally and
properly be conducted (including diplomacy, cultural exchange, trade,
and the treatment of foreign nationals).15
Analysis of such influences on the behaviour of states and nations
towards each other reveals many of the presuppositions underlying
decision and action. Unless we have clear contrary evidence, we should
assume that the world views, and hence the foreign relations cultures,
of two polities differ in important ways. This was certainly the case for
China and the classical kingdoms of Southeast Asia (with the exception
of Vietnam), just as it was for the European powers and China in the
19th century. Yet in the case of the former, it proved possible to reconcile
respective worldviews through what we may term implicit bilateral
relations regimes. These were more informal than issue-focused regimes,
but they too rested on shared principles, norms and expectations, and
required rules to be followed. In large part these rules were determined
by China, but they came to be accepted by ruling elites throughout
Southeast Asian as defining expected behaviour on both sides in relation
to issues of diplomacy, security and trade. We can understand how
bilateral relations regimes came about by comparing the cognitive
assumptions embedded in worldviews, systems of values, perceptions
of strategic interests, and interpretations of historical relationships of
the states that are party to each regime. Where these coincide, the
conduct of relations between two states will often not require shared
commitments to be spelled out, for they will be taken for granted ?
which may cause some astonishment to those who do not share them.
An example would be the willingness of certain Southeast Asian states
(Thailand, Burma) to make use of "family" metaphors in referring to
their relations with China,16 while other states (Indonesia, the
Philippines) would eschew such language.
These two conceptual tools ? foreign relations culture to refer to
the assumptions embodied in worldview in relation to which polities
(today nation-states) understand and conduct their relations with other
polities, and bilateral relations regime to refer to the compromise set of
(often implicit) norms, understandings and procedures which two
polities come to accept in conducting relations with each other ?
enable us to understand why historically relations between China and
Southeast Asia took the form they did.
Until the 19th century, China, by virtue of its size and power, both
economically and militarily, was able to impose its uncompromising
worldview to construct what amounted to a hegemonic international
order covering all aspects of its relations with other polities. The
question is: why did Southeast Asian kingdoms go along with this? Did
they do so for purely pragmatic reasons in order to promote profitable
trade? Were there other reasons that had to do with security, both
internal and external, or status? Or were Chinese demands not resented
because they could be accommodated within Southeast Asian views of
the world, and so were not considered outrageous in the way they
seemed to be to 19th century European envoys? As we shall see, to such
questions history and the cultural presuppositions embedded in
worldview provide answers that also shed light on contemporary
relations.
Towards the end of the 19th century, China was forced to come to
terms with an entirely different international order, based on a very
different view of the world and how relations between states should be
conducted. This was a world of competing empires, in which the
Chinese empire attempted to claim some standing, until humiliated by
the West and Japan. Yet, thanks largely to the mutual antagonism of its
opponents, the Chinese empire remained essentially intact. Even after
the fall of the Qing dynasty, though it lost its hegemonic influence in
Southeast Asia, China continued to rule over non-Chinese peoples
beyond its core cultural area (Mongols, Tibetans, Uighurs). It was in
this sense that China constituted an "empire-state".
This was a difficult transitional period, even after China became
a republic, for the world system of nation-states was itself evolving.
Only after the Second World War, when countries in Southeast Asia
became independent, did the United Nations as a forum of nominally
equal sovereign states come to embody what we take for granted as the
contemporary world order. It was in this context, in which the Peoples'
Republic of China after 1949 was initially a pariah state excluded
from the UN, that relations between the new China and the newly
independent states of Southeast Asia had to be fashioned. The first
stages of this process were complicated by the continued presence of
former colonial powers, by the U.S. military presence in the region, by
China's revolutionary ambitions, and by the internal politics of
Southeast Asian nations. The later stages are still in the process of
being worked out. What their form will be into the 21st century is
unclear, though it is possible, in the light of history and political
culture, to discern some key trends.
It is impossible in this brief article to do more than sketch the
changing relations between China and Southeast Asia. Over the course
was the model for all others to follow. The patronizing superiority with
which Chinese mandarins lectured visiting envoys found its parallel in
the insufferable way senior communist officials lectured visiting foreign
communist delegations, not least those from Southeast Asia.30 In turn
this related to a third carry-over component: the moralistic dimension
in Chinese foreign policy. Policies as diverse as coexistence, anti
hegemonism, or "equal benefit" trade policy have tended to be
proclaimed as moral principles, with moral fervour.31
Underlying these parallels has been the structural similarity between
the authoritarian and hierarchical dictatorship exercised by the CCP
and the equally authoritarian and hierarchical Confucian mandarinate.
The role of history and economics may be radically different in the
Confucian and Marxist-Leninist worldviews, but not beliefs about how
power should be concentrated and exercised, and by whom.
The CCP came to power just as Western imperialism was
withdrawing from Southeast Asia. This provided Beijing with an
opportunity the Republic of China had never had, to develop new
bilateral relations regimes with independent states throughout the region.
But the process of decolonization, though brief and amicable in the
case of Burma, was accompanied by more or less protracted violence
everywhere else. China's support for anti-colonial revolutionary
movements, particularly in Malaya and Indochina, made it difficult to
establish satisfactory relations with newly independent governments
still beholden to the West for their security under the aegis of the new
regional hegemon, the United States. The distinction developed by
Beijing between government-to-government and party-to-party relations,
while it allowed China some flexibility in juggling revolutionary rhetoric
and diplomacy, engendered understandable suspicion. Not until well
into the era of Deng Xiaoping was this dichotomy finally dispensed
with as an element complicating bilateral relations regimes.
New bilateral relations regimes did, however, gradually develop.
Burma, the first Southeast Asian nation to establish diplomatic relations
with the PRC, was a good example. In effect, Burma resuscitated elements
of its traditional paukpauw (sibling) relationship that accorded China
seniority, and thus status, within a presumed common family of states
in which each took account of the interests of the other.32 Strict Burmese
neutralism reinforced Chinese security along its long and porous
southwestern border, in return for Chinese non-intervention in Burma's
chaotic internal affairs, in particular minimal material (as opposed to
rhetorical) support for the Burmese Communist Party.
New bilateral relations regimes were also established with Sukarno's
Indonesia and Sihanouk's Cambodia, neither of which, because of their
narrow leader-to-leader basis, survived changes in regime. In Indochina,
example, with Vietnam ? at least in the sense that the agreement did
not transfer large areas to China) while reserving its claim to all the
islands of the South China Sea, and has promoted freer trade (by
joining the WTO, and by signing a free trade agreement with ASEAN).
But how long will this last? What might derail Beijing's current strategy?
One thing, of course, would be a collapse of control by the CCP, to
which the "calculative strategy" itself might even contribute. Regional
leaders, the military, or a growing wealthy middle and professional
class may demand more political say; or growing disparities in wealth
may create massive social unrest. If the CCP did lose power, this would
only be in the context of political and social turmoil, which would be
likely to provoke an unprecedented movement of population,
particularly into Southeast Asia. This would be highly destabilizing,
and very likely result in regional conflict.
Another possibility is that China's very economic success could
provoke regional tensions. Increasingly, direct foreign investment that
previously went to Southeast Asia is being diverted to China, while the
flow of cheap Chinese goods into Southeast Asia undercuts local
manufactures. Both of these are adding to already high levels of
unemployment in the region.
The two most likely reasons why the "calculative strategy" might
be discarded, however, are because China itself for nationalistic reasons
decides to embark on some strategic adventure (such as invading Taiwan,
or seizing the Spratly Islands), or conversely because the United States
again decides that China, rather than terrorism, poses the greatest threat
to Washington's global hegemony and adopts a more aggressive attitude
towards her (as the present Bush administration appeared ready to do
upon taking office). The first of these possibilities would directly
challenge the United States in the case of Taiwan, and probably lead to
war; or in the case of the Spratlys threaten international sea lanes
(though Beijing could issue assurances in that regard). In the case of a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Southeast Asian states would attempt to
remain neutral; in the case of the Spratlys they would be more likely to
recoil into the arms of America.
But could the ASEAN states remain neutral in a conflict between
America and China? They would certainly try. And would they present
a common front in opposing any unilateral Chinese seizure of islands
in the South China Sea? This is rather less likely, given the international
tensions such a move would provoke. A third question is more
immediate, in the light of current American strategic thinking: how
would the countries of Southeast Asia be likely to respond to American
attempts to limit Chinese power, to constrain or contain longer-term
Chinese great power ambitions?
enjoys the best relations with China of any country in Southeast Asia,
despite its security arrangement with the United States. Thailand will
not join a coalition opposed to China, and the Chinese know it. As for
weak and vulnerable Laos and Cambodia, they have always looked to
China more as a protector against powerful neighbours (Thailand and
Vietnam) than as a threatening great power.
The situation for the maritime states (in which I include Malaysia
and Singapore, as well as the Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei) is not
so clear-cut. Singapore, as a wealthy Chinese island in a Malay sea, has
always been careful not to get out of step with its neighbours, and is
unlikely to serve either as an advanced garrison for China or a lone
bastion for America, despite providing facilities for U.S. warships.
Brunei, despite its historic trading links with China, will also take its
lead from its neighbours. Malaysia too has a long history of trading ties
with China (mainly via Malacca). The Malay elite has pursued closer
economic ties with East Asia in preference to the West. Indeed now
Malaysia vies with Thailand in claiming to have the friendliest relations
with Beijing.38 Kuala Lumpur would thus be unlikely to side with the
United States in a confrontation with China (especially if the former
was perceived to be anti-Islamic).
The Philippines bilateral relations regime with China is relatively
weak, lacking as it does both historical depth and the cultural
components of the mainland states. The trading regime with Manila
was conducted under Spanish auspices and involved overseas Chinese,
not Filipinos. Only the Sulu Archipelago had historical trading links
comparable to Brunei or Malacca, but Sulu did not then fall under any
Philippine jurisdiction. The Philippines after independence developed
much closer relations with Taiwan than with the PRC. Moreover the
Philippine ruling elite is Catholic with cultural ties to Europe and to
Latin America, and no historical memories of being part of a sinocentric
world order. If history constitutes a dimension of Philippine foreign
policy culture, it favours links with the United States, as a former
colony, in common resistance to Japan, and in joint security
arrangements. Of all the ASEAN states, the Philippines is the most
likely to support America in a confrontation with China. Manila's
primary concern in such a situation would be that doing so would
break ASEAN solidarity.
That leaves Indonesia, the largest and most populous state in
Southeast Asia, formerly the centre of political gravity of ASEAN, but
now weakened by internal conflict and division. Indonesia, more
particularly the trading ports of Java and Sumatra, has a long history of
relations with China. The conversion of most of what is now Indonesia
to Islam did not weaken these trading links so much as strengthen
equally important links to India and the Persian Gulf. The Muslim
worldview sat uneasily beside the pretensions of the Son of Heaven,
but from the 17th century relations with China were brokered by the
Dutch, not the sultans of Central Java. Moreover, independent Indonesia
saw itself as inheriting the historical and cultural legacy of the Java
centred kingdom of Majapahit, rather than the divisive competition of
the trading ports.
Briefly under Sukarno independent Indonesia entered into close
relations with the PRC, each in the belief that it was the leader of
"newly emerging forces" in the world.39 It was a relationship that could
not last. Under Soeharto, Indonesia established itself as de facto leader
of ASEAN: the "ASEAN way" was in large measure the Javanese way.
This placed Indonesia in direct competition with China for influence in
the region. Jakarta was highly suspicious of Chinese intentions, and it
was not until 1990 that diplomatic relations were finally re-established.
With the fall of Soeharto, ASEAN lost the cohesion that a strong
Indonesia had provided, but the Indonesian elite did not lose the belief
that Indonesia should rightfully be primus inter pares among the ASEAN
states. Given its deep-rooted suspicions of China, its large population
and its Islamic heritage, Indonesia still stands as probably the principal
opponent to increased Chinese influence in Southeast Asia ? provided
it does not break apart. Any break-up of Indonesia could, of course,
only benefit the extension of Chinese influence in Southeast Asia.
Indonesia's opposition to China does not, however, make it a
natural ally of America. After independence, Indonesia never joined
any U.S.-led coalition: it always saw itself as a neutral regional leader,
not a Cold War follower. Despite being a secular state, Indonesia
retains strong ties with the Muslim world, and shares with it a lurking
distaste for American policies and culture. For these reasons, Indonesia
would not easily join an American-led confrontation with China.
Moreover, it would be more reluctant than the Philippines to
undermine ASEAN solidarity.
NOTES
1 It is easily forgotten, amidst the clamour of the "war on terrorism", that before
11 September 2001, the Bush administration viewed China as the principal threat
to continuing American global hegemony in the 21st century. A temporary
commonality of interest ? China is eager to suppress Islamic-driven Uighur
nationalism in Xinjiang ? has reduced overt antagonism, but only in the short
Two important recent publications are Ang Cheng Guan, Vietnamese Communists'
Relations with China and the Second Indochina Conflict, 1956-1962 (Jefferson, NC:
McFarland, 1997), and Zhai Qiang, China and the Vietnam Wars: 1950-1975
(Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2000).
34 Robert S. Ross, "China and the Cambodian Peace Process", Asian Survey 31 (1991):
1169-85.
35 As the author discovered in several interviews and discussions in Beijing and
Hanoi.
36 The term is used and the concept developed in Michael D. Swaine and Ashley J.
Tellis, Interpreting China's Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (Santa Monica,
Calif.: Rand Corporation, 2000).
37 Bertil Lintner, "Arms for Eyes: Military Sales Raise China's Profile in Bay of
Bengal", Far Eastern Economic Review, 16 December 1993, p. 26; Donald M.
Seekins, "Burma-China Relations: Playing with Fire", Asian Survey 37 (1997): 525
39.
38 Claims to enjoy the best relations with China were made in interviews with
academics and officials conducted by the author in both Bangkok and Kuala
Lumpur.
39 See the introductory background chapter of Rizal Sukma, Indonesia and China:
The Politics of a Troubled Relationship (London: Routledge, 1999).