Geo-politics and Geo-economics.

Era of Middle Powers?

Defining Middle Powers.

The notion of middle powers has long been around. But it has acquired new relevance in the
current geopolitical context whose defining features are increasing multipolarity and the US-
China competition. There is no consensus in the growing literature about how to define
middle powers. However, there is general agreement that these countries are neither
among the world’s superpowers nor are they small powers as they have the ability to
influence geopolitics.
This is due to their economic strength, military muscle or other attributes, including
demographic characteristics, regional weight, soft power, diplomatic conduct and activism.
This gives them significant leverage in global affairs and ability to build multiple
relationships.

They include countries from the developed world and Global South, such as Germany,
Japan, Canada, Brazil, India, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Indonesia.
They are a heterogeneous group of countries with varying governance systems as well as
political and strategic interests. Pakistan is in some respects a middle power but its
economic weakness has significantly limited and diminished its global influence.

Moreover, structural changes and dispersal of power in the international system — the very
currency of power also having changed — has created an enabling environment for middle
power activism and for them to wield influence. As Alec Russell recently wrote in a
thoughtful Financial Times op-ed, “The age of the Western set menu is over. And the new
menu, while heavily influenced by two lead chefs, is still being written” — a reference to
middle powers who now seek a seat at the table.

Last month’s BRICS summit in South Africa renewed focus on middle powers and their
aspiration to reconfigure the global order and rewrite the rules of the game. Expansion of
the group by addition of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Argentina, UAE and Ethiopia, with China
working for enlargement, underlined how these emerging economies were seeking a bigger
role by using the bloc as a countervailing force to US-led Western groupings, such as G7.

Brics: These countries are seeking to shape geopolitics by activist diplomacy in a

multipolar world.

Among decisions to emerge from the Johannesburg summit was for finance ministers of
member countries to explore how to reduce dependence on the US dollar. As Cyril
Ramaphosa, South Africa’s president put it, “BRICS has embarked on a new chapter to build
a world that is fair” and “inclusive”. Whether or not that ambition is realised, the bloc has
become an important platform for middle powers to make their global presence felt.

While many middle powers are capitalising on the US-China competition to strengthen their
bargaining position they also seek to enhance relations with both global powers. They want
to avoid getting in the crosshairs of that confrontation but to also reap advantages from it.
This has urged both the US and China to pay more attention to middle powers to ensure
they don’t get entrenched in their rival’s camp.

Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia has pursued initiatives that have
set a new foreign policy direction and raised its diplomatic game. Riyadh loosened its
traditionally close ties with the US to significantly boost its economic ties with China. Its
rapprochement with long-time regional rival Iran, brokered by China, greatly increased its
leverage with Washington.

This development so alarmed the Biden administration that it urged Washington to hasten
plans to pursue a ‘grand bargain’ in the Middle East. This involves Saudi Arabia normalising
relations with Israel in return for a mutual security pact with the US and Riyadh committing
to scale back ties with China. In fact, Riyadh is driving a tough bargain by making several
demands — a defence pact with Washington, a civilian nuclear deal, missile defence
system/ other high-tech weapons and substantial Israeli concessions for the Palestinians.

Turkey is another country adept at the middle power diplomatic game, which has been
widely commented on. A member of Nato, Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has
followed an assertive foreign policy in the region and beyond, maintaining ties with both the
US and Russia. Ankara has played off the Ukraine conflict to further project its power and
increase its leverage. It sought to mediate between Russia and Ukraine and (with the UN)
brokered the Black Sea Grain Deal between them in July 2022. This allowed safe passage for
shipment of grain from Ukraine, a big exporter, through the Black Sea, whose maritime
routes are controlled by Turkey. Ankara also used its leverage over the issue of Nato’s
expansion to secure concessions from the US and EU.

Geopolitics and Pakistan

Introduction.
Every country has a unique geography and geopolitical positioning, but it is not always
possible for all states to harness their geopolitical positioning, either because they lack the
political will to do so, or because the overall regional or global geopolitics suppresses such a
will. Nevertheless, understanding one’s geopolitical/strategic positioning is the first step in
strengthening one’s standing in bilateral, regional and global relations. Pakistan’s
geopolitical importance is significant, owing to its strategic location, nuclear capabilities, and
role in regional security and stability. Additionally, its economic significance, including the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and potential energy resources, adds to its importance on
the global stage. Pakistan's geopolitical importance is underestimated, though it is an
important factor in the stability of South and Central Asia. Neither a resolution to the
Kashmir conflict nor lasting peace in Afghanistan will be possible without Pakistan playing a
major role. And international terrorism can only be effectively fought through close
cooperation with Islamabad. At the same time, not only is Pakistan the only Muslim nuclear
power – it is also facing the threat of state collapse due to Islamisation, hence the view
pronounced by The Economist, and shared by others, that Pakistan is "The world's most
dangerous place". Pakistan’s position in the changing geopolitics of the world is complex
and multifaceted, with a range of domestic and international factors at play. While it faces
significant challenges, it also has the potential to play a key role in shaping the future of the
region and beyond. Once Pakistan puts itself on the path of sustainable development, the
world will come to it. Pakistan survives in a challenging security environment due to its
geopolitical location and the history of unresolved conflicts. Pakistan is either an immediate
or a distant neighbour of three declared (India, Russia, and China) and two suspected (Iran
and Israel) nuclear powers. Not only this, but Pakistan and India have been entangled in a
long history of mistrust, conflicts, and ideological differences. These differences led them to
fight at least four full-scale and limited wars in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999. Moreover in
2002, 2008 and 2019, both states came at the brink of war due to an unexpected turn of
events. The military forces were in eyeball to eyeball contact on international borders and
on the Line of Control (LOC). However, the war was averted due to international mediation
and successful implementation of de-escalation ladder.

Historical Context of Pakistan’s geo politics

Pakistan was created in 1947 as a result of the partition of British India. The new country
was founded as a Muslim-majority state, and it was envisioned as a homeland for Indian
Muslims. The partition was accompanied by widespread violence and the displacement of
millions of people.
From the outset, Pakistan’s relations with India have been tense, with territorial disputes,
water resources, and religious and cultural differences. The two countries have fought
several wars, including one in 1971 that resulted in the creation of Bangladesh.
Pakistan aligned itself with the United States and the West during the Cold War. Whereas
India pursued a policy of non-alignment. Pakistan was a vital ally of the United States in the
region, especially during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan became a major player in the
conflict, supporting the Afghan mujahideen fighters fighting the Soviet-backed government.
This conflict lasted for a decade and had a significant impact on the region as well as on
global politics.

Pakistan’s strategic location.

Pakistan’s unique longitudinal geography allows it to wash its shores with the Arabian Sea at
its south, and to shake hands with Central Asia at its north. Pakistan’s historical and
geographical contingency with Afghanistan has allowed it to support the brotherly country
in its fight for freedom from Russian and American occupations; our neighbouring with Iran
in a unique way that is different from its Arab neighbours to its west, allows us to have a
relatively unbiased and even normative relation with it.
At the north-eastern and eastern proximities, Pakistan touches two giant states: China and
India — two states with the world’s biggest populations and both harbouring regional
ambitions. China being Pakistan’s all-weather friend since the independence of the two
states and India being an opponent to both of us.
Pakistan has a long coastline along the Arabian Sea, which provides the country with access
to major shipping lanes and ports. Its strategic location makes it an important player in
regional trade and commerce, particularly in the oil and gas sector.
Moreover, Pakistan’s location near the Middle East has given it a crucial role in regional
politics and diplomacy. The country has maintained close ties with the Arab states and has
been involved in several regional initiatives aimed at promoting peace and stability.

Pakistan is located at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, making it a natural transit
point between the two regions.

Furthermore, Pakistan is located at the crossroads of Central and South Asia, making it a
natural transit point between the two regions. This location has given Pakistan a significant
role in regional economic integration and has made it a key partner in initiatives such as the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Central Asian states gained their independence from Russia in 1990, when the Soviet
Union’s defeat in Afghanistan led to its dismantling. Because of the fact that Central Asia
consists of all Sunni Muslim states, they have a natural ideological bonding with Pakistan
and Afghanistan as compared to Iran or the Arab states that are further away. Vast
hydrocarbon reserves were identified in the landlocked states of Central Asia in the 1990s.
Being deep inside Asia, they need a route to the sea to export their oil and gas, and the
route via Afghanistan and Pakistan becomes the shortest, best choice.

Pakistan’s Geo-Political proximity and China.

Pakistan’s geography has also brought it ever closer to China, as it offers China the shortest
route to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea. Because wars in the Middle East impede other
Belt and Road routes to the Arabian Sea, China has proclaimed CPEC as the flagship project
of its Belt and Road Initiative. But that is not all, for China Pakistan’s friendship is a dear one
also because this geographically contingent bulwark alliance is proving to be a partnership
that can subdue India’s ambitions to become a regional player. So, China and Pakistan
complement each other in demanding territories that India has falsely occupied; and in the
same vein while India sits on top of Pakistan’s waters coming from Occupied Kashmir, China
sits on top of India’s waters originating from Tibet.

So, as China shows high prospects for being the regional hegemon of the coming decades,
Pakistan has chosen wisely to ally with it. As China grew economically, it also garnered
another vital ally, Russia, who has opened its arms to several BRI projects on and through its
soil. The two, complement each other’s foreign policies and repel a common adversary, the
US. Russia’s coupling up with Iran and Turkey to take control of Syria makes for an overall
alliance framework that Pakistan would comfortably fit into.

Saudia Arabs 41 countries led military alliance strengthening the geo politics of Pakistan
The 41-state, Saudi-led Islamic military alliance created in 2015 is also headed by Pakistan’s
former chief of army staff General Raheel Sharif. Though still at an infancy stage, the alliance
which is larger than NATO (30 members), can be a potential global force for protecting the
interests of Muslim states. Pakistan’s leadership of the Muslim ummah is well-precedented,
as our forces have remained actively present in war-fronts from Bosnia to Sri Lanka and
from Afghanistan to Somalia, wherever we found the chance to come to the aid of our
brethren.
Geo-political Importance of Pakistan.
Strategic Location of Pakistan
Nuclear Capability of Pakistan
Pakistan began its nuclear program in the 1970s, with the aim of developing a nuclear
deterrent against India, which had conducted its first nuclear test in 1974. Despite
international sanctions and pressure, Pakistan continued to develop its nuclear capabilities,
conducting its first nuclear tests in 1998.
The possession of nuclear weapons has given Pakistan a sense of strategic equality with
India and has allowed it to pursue a more assertive foreign policy in the region.
The country has been criticised by the international community for its nuclear program,
which is seen as a potential threat to global nonproliferation efforts. However, Pakistan has
maintained that its nuclear weapons are a deterrent against aggression and that it is
committed to responsible nuclear stewardship.
In recent years, Pakistan has taken steps to improve its nuclear security and has worked
with the international community to prevent nuclear terrorism and the spread of nuclear
weapons. The country has also expressed its willingness to engage in nuclear disarmament
talks with India, although progress on this front has been slow.

Regional Security and Stability

Pakistan has been at the forefront of the global war on terror since the September 11
attacks in 2001. The country has taken significant steps to combat terrorism and has
launched several military operations against terrorist groups, including the Pakistani Taliban
and Al Qaeda.
Moreover, tensions between Pakistan and India continue to pose a threat to regional
security and stability. The two countries have engaged in several military conflicts over the
years, and the issue of Kashmir remains a major point of contention. Despite efforts to
resolve the conflict, the situation remains tense, with both sides maintaining a heavy
military presence along the border.
Pakistan and Afghanistan share a long and porous border causing tension and conflict. The
country has been accused of supporting the Taliban but denied these allegations. Pakistan
facilitated peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government to improve their
relationship. However, the region is still unstable with ongoing violence.

Pakistan’s Role in the Global War on Terror

Since 9/11, Pakistan has been a crucial partner of the US and other Western nations in
combating extremist groups like Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the global war on terror.
One of Pakistan’s primary contributions has been its cooperation with the United States.
Following the 9/11 attacks, the Pakistani government provided intelligence and logistical
support to the U.S. military in its efforts to track down and eliminate Al-Qaeda leaders,
including Osama bin Laden. In addition, it has allowed U.S. military forces to use its territory
to launch drone strikes against terrorist targets in Afghanistan and the tribal areas within
Pakistan.
However, Pakistan’s role in the war on terror has not been without controversy. Critics have
accused the government of maintaining ties to extremist groups such as the Taliban, and of
providing safe havens to them within its borders. The U.S. has also accused Pakistan of not
doing enough to prevent the flow of militants across the border into Afghanistan.
Despite these criticisms, Pakistan has taken steps to combat terrorism within its borders.
The Pakistani military has conducted a number of operations against extremist groups in the
tribal areas, including the launch of a major offensive in 2014 against the Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP), an offshoot of the Afghan Taliban. The government has also implemented
measures to crack down on the financing of terrorism and to monitor extremist propaganda
online.

Geo-Political tensions in the region and implications for Pakistan.

Russia and Ukraine War

Afghan Refugees:
 Last year, European and North American countries pledged to welcome Afghan
refugees fleeing the Taliban regime.
 However, these same countries are now taking in Ukrainian refugees.
 Afghan refugees in various countries are facing evictions, leading to a new influx of
Afghan refugees into Pakistan.
 Afghan refugees in Pakistan awaiting visa approvals from other countries may end up
staying in Pakistan.
 This could lead to illegal refugee settlements in urban areas, potentially causing
social unrest and straining Pakistan's resources.
Diplomatic Challenges for Pakistan:
 Pakistan faces a complex diplomatic situation as it aims to maintain ties with both
Russia and Western countries, including the US and EU.
 Pakistan abstained from voting against Russia at the UNGA to remain neutral.
 As Russia's aggression intensifies and the conflict prolongs, the West may request
Pakistan to review its stance.
Global Food Price Crisis:
 The conflict in Ukraine has led to a halt in Ukrainian exports, pushing international
prices of food commodities to the highest levels since 1990.
 Developing and emerging market countries are most affected by the food price
inflation.
 According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, countries
like Indonesia, Madagascar, Pakistan, and the Republic of Moldova are among the
most affected.
 These countries have limited diversity in grain imports and a low score on the dietary
sourcing flexibility index (DSFI), making them highly dependent on imports from
Russia and Ukraine.

America China race to become global hegemon

U.S.-Pakistan Relations:
 U.S. military and economic aid to Pakistan has decreased over time.
 America remains the largest export market for Pakistani goods.
 The U.S. is a favored destination for education among the Pakistani elite.
China-Pakistan Relations:
 China has become Pakistan's largest supplier of arms.
 China has initiated economic cooperation through the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC), valued at $62 billion.
 Pakistan relies on China's support to contend with its rival, India, and to
internationalize the Kashmir issue.
Impact of U.S.-China Rivalry:
 The deepening rivalry between the U.S. and China could intensify the India-Pakistan
conflict by increasing advanced arms and intelligence capabilities on both sides.
 This rivalry might also hinder prospects for U.S.-Chinese cooperation in managing
crises.
Concerns about U.S.-India Relations:
 If the U.S. extends its Indo-Pacific strategy to address continental challenges posed
by China, it could have significant implications for Pakistan.
 Announcements related to U.S.-India defense agreements, including sharing
geospatial intelligence and missile technology, have raised concerns in Pakistan.

Pakistan deteriorating relations with middle east

Impact on Pakistan's Relations in the Middle East:
 The U.S.-China rivalry is influencing Pakistan's Middle East relations.
 Recent friction with U.S. ally Saudi Arabia has arisen due to Pakistan's reluctance to
support Saudi Arabia's stance on Kashmir.
 China provided Pakistan with a $1 billion loan to repay Saudi Arabia, preventing a
complete rupture in relations.
Avoiding Drastic Shifts in Alliances:
 Pakistan is cautious about making a drastic shift from U.S.-aligned Gulf states like the
UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain to a China-backed alignment.
 Such a shift would not align with Pakistan's strategic interests.
 Pakistan aims to maintain flexibility in its international relations and regional
negotiations, particularly as it seeks to link CPEC with China's Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) and attract diverse investments.

Gwadar Seaport and Regional Concerns:

 Management of Gwadar seaport transferred from Singapore to China.
 Pakistan's joint naval drills with China in the Arabian Sea raise suspicions in the
region.
 A Chinese naval presence in Gwadar could strain Pakistan's relations with Gulf states
hosting U.S. military presence.
China-Iran Trade Deal and Regional Balancing:
 A potential $400 billion Iran-China deal could overshadow Indo-Iranian cooperation
at Chabahar port.
 Economic feasibility and Iran's concerns about Chinese exploitation are subject to
doubt.
 Pakistan sees an opportunity in a Chinese presence in Iran, especially for trade
routes to Afghanistan.
Pakistan's Role in Afghanistan:
 Pakistan's role in Afghanistan is influenced by its threat perceptions, particularly
concerning India's influence in the region.
 Stability in Afghanistan aligns with U.S. and Chinese interests, despite broader
competition.
 China focuses on safeguarding its economic interests in Afghanistan and has reached
some understanding with the Taliban.
 The U.S. and China are likely to agree on the importance of stability in Afghanistan.
Importance of Stability in Afghanistan:
 Gwadar's proximity to southern Afghanistan facilitates trade via the Gwadar port,
offering an encouraging precedent for economic stabilization in Afghanistan.
 Pakistan welcomes U.S. and other state investments to enhance Afghan connectivity
and stability, potentially alongside Chinese investments.

Growing Influence of India in region – India’s race for Regional

hegemony
India's Pursuit of Hegemony:
 Geopolitical Advantage: India's position as the largest state in South Asia,
surrounded by smaller countries, supports its pursuit of regional hegemony.
 Neighbouring States: Smaller states like Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka have little
choice but to accept India's regional hegemony. Geographical factors further
strengthen India's position, making states like Nepal vulnerable due to their
landlocked status.
 Influence Over Neighbours: India has historically asserted its influence in the region,
including military interventions and blockades in neighbouring states.
Pakistan's Threat Perception and Countermeasures:
 Kashmir Issue: The Kashmir conflict has been a significant source of tension between
India and Pakistan.
 Escalating Tensions: Recent events, such as the Pulwama attack and India's
revocation of Article 370, have heightened hostilities. India's "Cold Start" doctrine
and Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons are countermeasures to potential limited
conflicts.
 Existential Threat: India's acquisition of S-400 missiles and investment in Ballistic
Missile Defence systems have raised Pakistan's sense of existential threat.
Security Dilemma and Regional Security:
 Underdevelopment in South Asia: The region's underdevelopment is linked to
unresolved issues between states and their focus on military development due to
security concerns.
 SAARC Dysfunction: Confrontations between India and Pakistan have hindered
regional integration within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
(SAARC).
 Nuclear Capabilities: India and Pakistan's nuclear capabilities pose a significant
threat to regional security, with the potential for a nuclear exchange having
catastrophic consequences not only for South Asia but also global security.

Saudi-Iran Rapprochement
Trilateral Dialogue: China, Iran, and Pakistan:
 Significant development following the Saudi Arabia-Iran peace deal facilitated by
China.
 Aims to reduce mistrust between Iran and Pakistan, enhancing security and
economic cooperation.
Balochistan and Chinese Diplomacy:
 Potential benefits for Balochistan in terms of security and economic integration.
 Outcomes dependent on the intentions of state institutions.
Chinese Diplomacy and Regional Security:
 China plays a crucial role in addressing hurdles within countries participating in the
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
 China's approach focuses on fostering trust and assisting nations in dealing with their
specific challenges.
 Not directly engaging in military campaigns against terrorist groups like TTP, Al
Qaeda, IS-K, or Baloch insurgents targeting Chinese nationals in Pakistan.
 Establishing trust between Iran and Pakistan is vital for regional stability.
Interstate Terrorism Threats:
 Weak counterterrorism cooperation between states hinders their ability to combat
terrorist groups.
 Concerns between Iran and Pakistan about cross-border terrorism activities.
 Collaboration between China, Pakistan, and Iran can enhance regional security and
counter Baloch insurgent activities sheltered in Iran.
Changing Regional Security Dynamics:
 Rapid changes in regional security dynamics and terrorist groups adapting their
tactics.
 Recent TTP attacks in Balochistan, resulting in casualties and bombings of mobile
phone towers.
 Security operations launched to prevent cross-border infiltration and protect citizens
and forces.
Terror Attacks in Balochistan:
 Since the Afghan Taliban's assumption of power, religiously motivated groups, like
TTP, carried out attacks in Balochistan, resulting in numerous casualties.
 Mainly targeting Pashtun areas, including Quetta, Pishin, Chaman border, Sherani,
Zhob, Gwadar, and Makran regions.
 These areas are crucial for CPEC projects and the Gwadar port.
China's Trilateral Dialogue on Security:
 Separate trilateral dialogue with Afghanistan and Pakistan on security.
 Aims to increase diplomatic pressure on the Taliban regime to act against all terrorist
groups to avoid hindering regional development projects.
 China seeks to prevent the exploitation of the situation against its interests.
India’s increasing influence in G20, SCO and other regional
organizations.
Global Impact: India's presence in the G20 and SCO signifies its readiness to play a more
prominent role in the international community and make a positive impact on global
challenges.
SCO Chairmanship: India's role as Chair of the SCO provides opportunities for promoting
regional security, energy security, counterterrorism efforts, and cooperation against
transnational crimes.
India’s Act East Policy.
The "Act East" policy is India's foreign policy initiative aimed at strengthening its
engagement with East and Southeast Asian countries. It seeks to enhance economic ties,
connectivity, and strategic partnerships in the region. The policy emphasizes building
cultural and people-to-people connections, acting as a bridge between Asia-Pacific and
Southeast Asia, and active participation in multilateral forums. India's "Act East" policy is a
significant component of its strategy to maintain a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific
region and play a more prominent role on the global stage.

Taliban takeover and the new threat of rise of Islamisation and

extremism.
The Taliban’s dominance in Afghanistan has given Pakistan a geopolitical edge over India
in the broader Central Asian region. A stable Afghanistan could become a strategic
conduit between Pakistan and the Central Asian republics and help Pakistan realise its
geo-economics ambitions in the region. Yet, for this to happen, the Taliban must reach a
political consensus with other Afghan stakeholders. Barring a political agreement, peace
and stability will remain elusive, and the country’s potential to develop into an economic
and energy corridor linking South Asia with Central Asia will never be realised.

TTP rise and Afghan soil being used for terrorism in Pak.
Malacca Dilemma
Hormuz dilemma

Implications for Pakistan

Unipolar, Multipolar, Bipolar world order

Way forward

Russia and Ukraine War

Improving relations with Russia while maintaining connections with China, the US, and the
West is vital for Pakistan’s national interests.
Therefore, Pakistan may adopt prospective foreign policy options such as good offices,
mediation, meeting with regional organizations such as SCO and SAARC, and the role of a
third party. Promoting Russia’s agenda could lead to diplomatic isolation for Pakistan, hence
Pakistan takes a principled stance that supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and
sovereignty while advocating for peaceful resolution.
A suggestive three-point formula, can be implemented “Ceasefire, negotiation, and
implementation”, could be considered as a diplomatic proposition in the wake of the Russia-
Ukraine war. It is a need of time to urge Russia and Ukraine to opt for the ceasefire. Pakistan
could play its role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in reaching an agreement or
consensus between the parties. It will prevail the soft image of Pakistan in the international
community. As Pakistan has been quite prosperous in mediating Doha Accord between the
USA and the Taliban government in Afghanistan.
The crisis has made it more important than ever for Pakistan to build its defenses and be
ready for any threat from Indi. Pakistan, a nation that has already dealt with many security
issues, ought to now put the advancement of its defense capabilities first priority. Because a
robust military unlike Ukraine’s military, was weakened by years of neglect and corruption,
making it vulnerable to Russian aggression. The war has highlighted the importance of
maintaining a robust defense system to protect the country’s territorial integrity and
sovereignty. It is crucial to invest in military modernization and training to maintain a strong
defence force.

America China race to become global hegemon

Pakistan has ambitions of reclaiming its role as a bridge state—recalling when it facilitated
U.S.-China rapprochement during the Nixon era.10Some policymakers point to the possibility
of Pakistan playing the role of “a neutral actor” to help defuse the tensions between the
two great powers and becoming “a melting pot” of converging Chinese and American
interests to promote regional prosperity (including in Afghanistan)

In the process, Pakistan would stand to avail simultaneous security and economic benefits
associated with preserving mutually beneficial partnerships with the two leading global
powers, without needing to become overly dependent on either one of them.

Any drastic shift by Pakistan away from U.S.-aligned Gulf states like the UAE, Saudi Arabia,
and Bahrain to a China-backed alignment involving Iran, Turkey, and Malaysia would be an
overreach and not in keeping with Pakistan’s strategic interests.

How Pakistan can assert its dominance at regional and global levels: Policy
Recommendations.
Political Modernization:
1. The absence of political modernization and good governance in Pakistan has allowed
Islamic militancy to thrive.
2. Key steps to achieve political modernization include integrating administered areas
into the mainstream political system, strengthening the rule of law and the court
system, and implementing a zero-tolerance policy for militant organizations.
3. Strengthening democracy by ensuring regular elections, shifting political parties from
identity politics to issue politics, and protecting the parliament against undue
pressures.
4. Efforts should be made to federalize the state, giving smaller provinces an equal
stake in the political system.
Regional Diplomacy:
1. India and Pakistan should establish diplomatic, commercial, educational, and cultural
links to secure regional stability.
 2. Steps to improve their bilateral relationship include addressing the Kashmir issue,
viewing each other as assets for economic development, and promoting people-to-
people dialogue.
3. The U.S. should adopt an integrated approach toward South Asia, strengthening
dialogue between India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, and resolving regional conflicts.
Education and Media:
1. Policymakers should support the public-school system, implement curriculum
reforms, and promote civics and law education to counter militant discourse.
2. Encouraging unbiased reporting and security for journalists and media outlets to
foster an open, integrated worldview.
Civil Society:
1. International civil society actors can help define the national agenda in liberal,
democratic, and pluralist terms and monitor human rights violations.
2. Partnering with liberal forces in Pakistan and forging institutional links with various
social activists.
3. Shifting from local developmental projects to consortium-based mega projects
focused on governance issues.

One of the key factors driving Pakistan’s efforts to increase its strategic importance is its
partnership with China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The CPEC is a massive infrastructure development project that aims to connect China’s
western region to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan, and it has the potential to significantly
boost Pakistan’s economy and regional influence. Furthermore, by its partnership with
China, Pakistan has also been seeking to strengthen its relationships with other regional and
global powers, such as the USA, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. It has also been playing a key role
in facilitating peace talks in neighbouring Afghanistan, which is another important factor in
its regional strategic calculus.

Pakistan should focus on domestic economic reforms and human development while
avoiding geopolitical and regional political divisions in pursuit of its geopolitical interests.

Pakistan’s rulers must address the imbalance in their relationship with Beijing while also
understanding Washington’s indifference to their strategic situation. For example, a new
report by the Centre for a New American Security recommends that in the event of tensions
on the India-China border, the USA should “stand ready to provide full support to India” and
Pakistan should be made aware of its “need”.
“Pakistan must pursue its role as a hub of regional connectivity, while strengthening ties
with its core partners like China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It shall maintain economic and
cultural outreach to the West, especially to the US and Europe, and avoid repeating the old
mistakes it did in Afghanistan. Most importantly, Pakistan needs a ‘political ceasefire’ at
home on key issues like economy, extremism, education, so that people get a respite from
this unending polarisation and continuing quest for power,” he said.

Improving political stability through strengthening democracy and institutional reforms:

Stabilizing the country’s internal politics is a key priority. Participants opined that resolution
of issues between the military and the government is an important path towards that. This
in turn can provide confidence for foreign investments and bring in much needed capital. It
has to go alongside with better governance focused on transparency and strengthening of
the judiciary and the rule of law.
2. Increased regional connectivity and diversification of regional and international
partners: The isolation of Afghanistan and Iran from the world economy led by the US has
created major economic problems in those countries which will not be ideal for Pakistan
given its current economic situation. Participants stated that Pakistan has large potential in
being a regional connectivity hub for Central Asian countries as it has access to the sea and
can become the regional trade hub for the region. Being a neighbour to China, Pakistan will
have to walk a tight balancing act and resolve many challenges but the aspiration is that it
can serve as a hub for Chinese trade into the region and increase connectivity to Central
Asia and the Middle East. With improved regional connectivity, participants would also like
to see the region become more peaceful and have fewer conflicts.
3. Managing superpower rivalry and strengthening bilateral relations: Managing and
balancing the relationship between US and China will be important for Pakistan as it is
reliant on China for its economic ties and does not want to antagonize the US. To balance
the relationship, Pakistan will have to maintain dialogue and expand areas for engagement
with both countries.

Conclusions.