INDONESIA’S VACCINE MATH

The population, subpopulations, and parameters used in

the COVID-19 spread by mathematics model. (Sugiyanto,
The COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia is 2020)
part of the ongoing worldwide Transfer Diagram of COVID-19 Deployment
pandemic of  COVID-19 caused by severe Model
acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus
2 (SARS-CoV-2). It was confirmed to have
spread to Indonesia on 2 March 2020,
after a dance instructor and her mother
tested positive for the virus. Both were
infected from a Japanese national. By 9
April 2020, the pandemic had spread to
all 34 provinces in the country.

Source : Biology, Medicine, & Natural Product Chemistry Volume 9 | Pages: 15-19 | DOI:
10.14421/biomedich.2020.91.15-19
 As of 6 February 2021, Indonesia has
reported 1,166,079 cases, the highest in With 31763, deaths, Indonesia ranks
Southeast Asia, ahead of the Philippines  third in Asia and 17th in the world.

Source : WHO
One way to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak is
to develop its vaccine and produce it
massively for all affected countries. A vaccine
could prevent a susceptible person from The Coronavac vaccine has met requirements for
being infected at least for a time period or emergency use and accordingly the BPOM grants
even for life. Recently, several vaccine the emergency use authorization for the
candidates are being developed around the Coronavax vaccine manufactured by Sinovac
globe. The SinoVac, a potential COVID-19 Biotech, in collaboration with Bio Farma.
vaccine developed by a China-based
biopharmaceutical company, has been tested
in Indonesia for a Phase 3 clinical trial
 According to Head of BPOM, a reduction in the incidence of
infection in the population by about 65 percent will certainly be
significant and have a long aftereffect. Out of 100 million
The result of the efficacy of the Sinovac vaccine of 65.3
Indonesians without vaccination means 8.6 million can be
percent for some people may be disappointing. Yet, it is a
infected. If it then drops by 65 percent with vaccination, only 3
big move to start, especially since the minimum limit of the
million people are infected. This shows hope that this vaccine is
FDA, WHO, and EMA for approval of a vaccine is 50
able to reduce the COVID-19 contraction by 65.3 percent.
percent. It means that, epidemiologically, reducing the
incidence of infection by 50 percent is highly meaningful
The calculation is (0.086 – 0.03)/0.086 x 100 percent = 65
and saves the lives of many people. Moreover, as
percent, meaning it can prevent 5.6 million incidents of
announced, the vaccine has high immunogenicity, reaching
infection. Preventing 5 million incidents of infection is, by all
99 percent in the first three months. Meaning it can trigger
means, very meaningful in the provision of health care facilities.
antibodies in subjects who received the vaccine.
Not to mention that it can indirectly prevent further
transmission for people who do not get the vaccine. Namely
that if they can achieve herd immunity.
The scientist in indonesia constructed
math models and simulation scenarios,
an estimation of optimum vaccination
schedule considering the vaccination
cost, healthcare capacity, and
vaccination capacity per day.

Source :
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.21.202
48241; this
Vaccination is going to be the best option for
reducing the maximum number of deaths in
Indonesia