THE REGRESSION-DISCONTINUITY

DESIGN
THE BASIC DESIGN

C O X O
C O O

• Key Feature: Assignment based on a cutoff value on a

preprogram measure
THE CUTOFF RULE

• All persons on one side of the cutoff are assigned to one

group.
• All persons on the other side of the cutoff are assigned to
the other.
• Need a continuous quantitative preprogram measure.
THE ASSIGNMENT MEASURE

• The preprogram variable is called the assignment measure.

• Can be same or different as the post measure.
• Can be more complex:
• A composite index
• Cutoffs on multiple variables
SELECTING A CUTOFF

• Based on program resources -- target it to the x% that most

need it.
• Based on substantive considerations -- everyone scoring
below a certain value need the program.
 PRE-POST NULL CASE
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 PRE-POST NULL CASE
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 RD DESIGN, NO EFFECT
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 RD DESIGN WITH EFFECT
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Posteff

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 RD DESIGN WITH EFFECT
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Cutoff
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 RD DESIGN WITH EFFECT
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Treatment
group
group60
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regression
regression
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line
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 RD DESIGN WITH EFFECT
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Treatment
group
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regression
regression
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 RD DESIGN WITH EFFECT
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Difference
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Treatment groups group
group60
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regression
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line
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 ORIGIN OF THE NAME
If there is a treatment effect, there will be a...
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Posteff

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 ORIGIN OF THE NAME
If there is a treatment effect, there will be a...
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Discontinuity
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Posteff

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 ORIGIN OF THE NAME
If there is a treatment effect, there will be a...
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Discontinuity
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Posteff

...in the
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regression
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 ORIGIN OF THE NAME
If there is a treatment effect, there will be a...
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Discontinuity
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Posteff

...in the
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regression
40 lines

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...at the cutoff
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Pr e
 ORIGIN OF THE NAME
If there is a treatment effect, there will be a...
80 Regression-discontinuity

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Discontinuity
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Posteff

...in the
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regression
40 lines

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...at the cutoff
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 POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE EFFECT?
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Group
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Quality of Care

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Quality of Care
 POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE EFFECT?
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Group
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Quality of Care

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Quality of Care
 POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE EFFECT?
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Group
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Complaint Rate

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Quality of Care
 POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE EFFECT?
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Group
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Complaint Rate

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Quality of Care
 POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE EFFECT?
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Complaint Rate

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Complaint Rate
 POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE EFFECT?
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Complaint Rate

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Complaint Rate
 POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE EFFECT?
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Quality of Care

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 POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE EFFECT?
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Quality of Care

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 WHY DOES RD SEEM WRONG?

Selection threat • The groups will be different

initially.
• In fact, they’ll be maximally
different.
Regression threat • By definition, both groups are
selected from the extreme.
RD AND SELECTION THREATS

• There is an equivalence between groups expected in the RD

design.
• It’s not equivalence on the pretest.
• It’s equivalence of pre-post functional form (regression line
slope).
RD AND SELECTION THREATS

• RD rules out selection bias because it is reasonable to

assume that in the absence of the treatment, there would be
no discontinuity that naturally occurs between the two
groups. (Remember the null case?)
• Just doesn’t happen in nature.
RD AND REGRESSION THREATS

• It’s true that both groups regress towards the overall pretest
mean.
• That happens in the null case too.
• But it doesn’t cause a discontinuity.
• Regression lines describe regression to the mean.
 RD AND INTERNAL VALIDITY
• The only threat would be something that would cause a discontinuity in
the regression lines at the cutoff.
• Would almost have to be treatment related:
• Treatment-related mortality
• The social threats
 RD AND RANDOMIZED
EXPERIMENTS
• RD is as strong in internal validity.
• RD is less strong in conclusion validity:
• Lower power
• Needs larger sample size to be able to see the same effect
 THE POTENTIAL VALUE
• The ethical advantage -- RD enables you to assign the
program to those who
• Need It Most
• Deserve It Most
• Are at Greatest Risk
• Are most ill

• The accountability advantage

• A fair, objective rule for assigning social goods (or bads)