ASSESSMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF TRIP GENERATION MODEL BY USING

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK ALGORITHM: CASE OF WOLAYTA SODDO CITY

BY
HABTE DEBISA DENNO

Under the Guidance of

Prof. Dr. Raju Ramesh Reddy (main advisor) march 7, 2020
Mr. Lohit Havalagi (co-advisor) Arbaminch , Ethiopia
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Presentation outlines
• Introduction

• Materials & Methodology

• Results and Discussion

• Conclusions and Recommendation

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 Introduction
• Transportation engineering is the application of technology and scientific principle
to the planning , functional design, operation and management of facilities for any
transportation mode.
• Travel Demand Models is derived in four-step  urban planning process
recognized stages: 1.trip generation, 2.trip distribution, 3. model split and 4.
traffic assignment
• Trip generation is the primary step in transportation science and future transport
estimation of the urban area. But the failure of studying trip generation cause traffic
congestion, accident, and failure of the highway before the design period. [5][7]
• From the review of 37 different books, journal publication, conference proceeding
and website the researcher identified the gap and that there is little research has
done in trip generation model by using ANN algorithm.
• The aim of a research is to fill the gap in trip generation model analysis by adding
ANN algorithm to disaggregated analysis of HH trip was adopted.
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 Introduction
Statement of the problem:
• The Lack of micro-level transportation studies in Ethiopia leads to traffic
congestion and traffic accident in existing transport network.
• The Lack of trip generation model and Lack of the number of trip attractions
and production from a TAZ this leads failure of highway before design period
• The Lack of an attempt to forecast people that will use a specific
transportation facility in the future
• A Lack of HH trip production amount leads to adversity of public
transport ,design of road and provision of public transport facility in Wolayta
Soddo city
• The multiple linear regression techniques gives a weak trip generation
model or a model not represent reality
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 Introduction
Objectives of the study
• General objective of this study is:
• Assessment and development of the trip generation model and identifying the
factor affecting trip generation & variation of the trip rate of household dwelling
in the study area.
• Specific objectives of this study are:
1. To assess and identify the trip generation modeling method of the study area
2. To identify the main factors affecting the general trip generation of household
3. To identify the factor affecting trip generation purposes
4. To examine the Variation of Rate of trips generated based on the influence of
Parameters considered

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Materials and Methodology
Research flow chart
• Formalized
graphic
representation of
a logic sequence,
work or process
was applied to
conclude trip
generation model
in scientific
manner by
researcher.
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Materials and Methodology
• Study Area
• Wolayta Soddo city is located at 270
km distance from Addis Ababa via
Hosanna and 295 km via Shashemene.
From regional capital Hawassa located
at a distance of 170 km and found at
the southwest of Addis Ababa and
Hawassa respectively. Absolute
geographical location, it has a latitude
and longitude of 6○54’N 37○45’E or
6.900○N 37.750○E with an elevation
between 1600 and 2100 meters or
5200 and 6900 feet above sea level

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 Materials and Methodology
Pilot study
Research Survey procedure • Three kebele or zones are selected. {sample size =30 HH} only 24 HH was
responded and 6 households were not responded.
Zoning System and site for • By mail-back questionnaire method
study traffic analysis kebele (TAK) Main study
or (TAZ) in Wolayta Soddo City What kind of sampling technique were applied?
• Confidence level or larger sample was taken.

• Training of enumerators about home-interview survey data

collection
• Assigning enumerators to TAK/TAZ
• stratified random dwelling unit selection technique
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 Materials and Methodology
Questionnaire
Sample size of each kebele HH

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Materials and Methodology
Variables for Data analysis

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 Materials and Methodology
Statistical methods and analysis
Regression relating of dependent and independent
variable.
• Multiple linear regression adopted to identify
highly influencing independent variable
SPSS test for independent variables
1, correlation matrix and VIF: testing for multicollinearity
2, p-value: probability of obtaining the observed results
of a test.( <=5%)
3,T-test: Testing individual coefficients(>=2)
Several iteration made up to obtain strong
independent variable
Artificial neural networks (ANNs)
• computational algorithm based on the
structure and functions of biological neural
networks.
• are considers nonlinear statistical data
modeling tools
• Artificial neural networks are one of the main
tools used in machine learning.
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 Materials and Methodology
Characteristics of MATLAB ANN

Four basic artificial neural network (human MATLAB ANN CODE generating toolbox steps:
brain) components: • nnstrat
• nftool
They are known by their biological names • select data
• cell body (soma), • validation and test data
• network architecture
• dendrites,
• training network
• axon, and • neural network
• synapses. • evaluate network
• save result
• generate regression code 12
Materials and Methodology

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Materials and Methodology
MATLAB Regression code
% Solve an Input-Output Fitting problem with a NN
% This script assumes these variables are defined:
% c - input data.
% d - target data.
•load('total_input');
•load('total');
•load('total_output');
•c = transpose(total_input);
•d = transpose(total);
•x = c; % input data
•t = d; % target data
Choose a Training Function
% Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation.
• trainFcn = 'trainlm';
% Create a Fitting Network
• hiddenLayerSize = 20;
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 Materials and Methodology
% Setup Division of Data for Training,
% Validation, Testing
Generated regression code is
• net.divideParam.trainRatio = 70/100; edited by researcher to make a
• net.divideParam.valRatio = 15/100; journey simple.
• net.divideParam.testRatio = 15/100;
% Train the Network Training of data continue up to get
• [net,tr] = train(net,x,t); better result.
% Test the Network
• y = net(x); • Comparison of MLR and ANN
• e = gsubtract(t,y);
• performance = perform(net,t,y);
• selecting better performing
% View the Network algorithm
• view(net)
% Plots
• Validation of model
• figure, plotregression(t,y) • Conclusion and recommendation
% fprintf(' ********************************** \n');

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 Results and Discussion
The data analysis is carried out in three stages:

1.Descriptive 2.Assessment and 3.Trip generation

statistical analysis estimation of trip model calibration
household data generation models and validation

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 Results and Discussion
Descriptive data of the total daily household trip

Descriptive data of the daily household trips by purpose

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 Results and Discussion
Descriptive Data of Explanatory Variables
• descriptive data for household size • the average age of the household

Relationship of total trip of the household and

• total trip of household and household size the average age

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 Results and Discussion
Employed person in the household
persons receiving education from household

Relationship between total trip and the number of total trip number of household and employed
student in the HH number of household

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 Results and Discussion
household vehicle number household average monthly income

Total autos in the household and the total number total number of household trip and monthly
of trips average household income

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Results and Discussion
• Correlation Of
Explanatory Variable
X1- age
X2-average monthly income
X3- autos number
X4- employed person
X5-student number
X6- family size
X7- congestion effect on
trip
X8-job opportunity in TAK
X9- distance from CBD
X10- own house
X11- rental house
X12-monthly income

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 Results and Discussion
general trip generation model using MLR and ANN and MLR Trip generation models by
ANN algorithm purpose
• 
General trip generation model by MLR
•   trip generation model by MLR
Work

R-square=81%,F-value=760.953 R – squared = 0.738,F-value= 400.694

General trip generation model by ANN Work trip generation model by ANN

• R-square= 0.95616, F-value = 3887.4715 R – squared = 0.93607, F-value= 2085.1505

X2 = average monthly household income,

X1= average household member age, x2=
x4=number of employed person, x5= average household income, x3= number of autos
number of student, x6= number of family , x4 = number of employed person, x6= number
size. of family size

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 Results and Discussion
Educational trip generation model Shopping trip generation model
• Educational
  Trip Model by MLR •• Shopping Trip Model By MLR
 
R – squared= 0.945, F-value= 2439.728 R – squared= 0.535, F-value= 273.966
• Educational Trip Model by ANN • Shopping Trip Model By ANN

• R-square=0.984,F-value =8759.2193 R-square= 0.91964, F-value=2723.6918

X2 = average monthly HH income, x3 = x4= number of employed person, x6 = number of
number of autos, x4= number of employed family size, X12 = monthly household income
person, x5= number of student, x6 = number
of family size

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 Results and Discussion
Recreational trip generation model
• 
Recreational Trip Generation Model By MLR
R – squared=0.705,F-value=568.536
Recreational Trip Generation Model by ANN
R-square=0.96274, F-
value=6149.4936
X2 = average monthly household income,
x4= number of employed person, x5 =
number of student
Social trip generation model
•• Social Trip Generation Model By MLR
R – squared= 0.53,F-
value=268.769
• Social Trip Generation Model By ANN
• R-square=0.9654,F-value=6640.4688
x3 = number of autos, x4= number of
employed person, x6 = number of family
size
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 Results and Discussion
Discussion of Trip Generation Model comparison of MLR and ANN F-value and
significance level
comparison of MLR and ANN good fitness of models

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 Results and Discussion
Model validation comparison of result with other research

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 Results and Discussion
Iteration of general trip generation
model

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 Results and Discussion

Cont..

when x2 = 25000 birr, x4= 3

• Case 1: (x5 =0) and (x6=3) is 16.48 trips ; Case 2: (x5 =1) and (x6=4)
is 17.97 trips
• Case 3: (x5 =2) and (x6=5) is 19.42 trips ;Case 4: (x5 =3) and (x6=6)
is 20.89 trips
• Case 5: (x5 =4) and (x6=7) is 22.36 trips; Case 6: (x5 =5) and (x6=8)
is 23.84 trips
• Case 7: (x5 =6) and (x6=10) is 25.88 trips
The optimum HH trip number found in case 4 or 21 daily trip
generated from HH to attraction zone or kebele.
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 Conclusions and recommendation

Relevant conclusions as follows:

 The ANN algorithm model better in expressing reality than the MLR algorithm. Therefore, the ANN
algorithm model result is applied to the conclusion.
 The Y has an R2 value of 95.616% and the number of employed persons, number of student, average
household income, household size directly affects total trip.
 The Y1 has an R2 value of 93.607% and the average monthly income, number of employed persons and
family size directly affects work trip. But the average age of the household members and the number of
autos indirectly affect work trip.
 The Y2 has an R2 value of 98.4% and the number of student in HH highly affect EDU trip.
 The Y3 has an R2 value of 91.964% and the number of employed persons, family size & monthly household
income directly affect HH shopping trip.
 The Y4 has an R2 value of 96.274% and average monthly income, the number of employed persons & the
number of students highly positively affect HH recreation trips
 The Y5 has an R2 value of 96.54% and number autos, number of employed persons & number of family
size directly affect HH social trip.
 The variation of rate of general HH trip increases when the number of student and family size is constant &
by changing the number of employed person and average HH monthly income.
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 Conclusions and recommendation

Relevant recommendation:
It is recommended to develop trip generation models for other Ethiopian towns and cities for better transportation
planning process.
It is recommended to compare and update the result found on this research by different optimizing algorithm
techniques.
It is recommended to use the procedure of this research and ANN algorithm when planning to develop trip
generation model for any Ethiopian city.
It is recommended to research temporal and dynamics of individual & HH trip generation model parameter change
over time.
Ethiopian central statistical agency (ECSA) should conduct a household travel survey (HTS) that includes detailed
data about trips made by households.
The researchers are encouraged to check model validation either using existing data or collecting a new data set.
Officials and planners are encouraged to use the results of trip generation model that are estimated in this
research for subsequent travel demand models.
Researchers are encouraged to collect new data set in future and use new data to ensure this research model still
valid in future.
Researchers are recommended to study trip generation for deferent possible independent variables or a different
division of zones according to different land uses and household dwelling level.
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Thank you!!!!

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