GEOG 434:Climatic Change:

Arid and Semi-Arid Lands

Climate Change: Evidence

 Objectives:

• introduces students to the definition of

climate change and climate Variability

• highlights the differences and

similarities of climate variability and
climate change

• discusses the evidence of global climate

change
 What is Climate
• Climate is defined as the weather averaged over
a long period of time.

• The standard averaging period is 30 years but

other periods may be used depending on the
purpose. Climate also includes statistics other
than the average, such as the magnitudes of
day-to-day or year-to-year variations.

• Therefore, climate is “the average and

variations of weather over long periods of time”.
 Weather
• Weather” is the set of all phenomena in a given atmosphere
at a given time.

• The term usually refers to the activity of these phenomena

over short periods (hours or days), as opposed to the term
climate, which refers to the average atmospheric conditions
over longer periods of time.

• On Earth, common weather phenomena include such things

as wind, cloud, rain, snow, fog and dust storms. Less
common events include natural disasters such as cyclones
and ice storms.

• Almost all familiar weather phenomena occur in the

troposphere (the lower part of the atmosphere).
 The Atmosphere
• The Earth's atmosphere consists
principally of a roughly 78:20 ratio of
nitrogen and oxygen, plus
substantial water vapor (gas), with a
minor proportion of carbon dioxide.
There are traces of hydrogen, and of
argon, helium and other "noble"
gases (and of volatile pollutants).
 Global Climate System
• Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice
and rising global average sea level-
IPCC 2007
 What is Climate Change?

• Climate Change refers to a statistically significant

variation in either the mean state of the climate
or in its variability, persisting for an extended
period (typically decades or longer) – IPCC 2001

• According to the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), it (CC)-
refers to a change of climate that is attributed
directly or indirectly to human activity that alters
the composition of the global atmosphere and
that is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods
What is Climate Variability?
• Climate Variability is the way climatic
variables (such as temperature and
precipitation) depart from some
average state, either above or below
the average value.
Climate change :
a change in mean
or a change in
variability.

It could also be a
change in both.
Why do we say the Global Climate is Changing?
Observed changes in (a) global
average surface temperature; (b)
global average sea level from
tide gauge (blue) and satellite
(red) data and (c) Northern
Hemisphere snow cover for
March-April.

All differences are relative to

corresponding averages for the
period 1961-1990. Smoothed
curves represent decadal
averaged values while circles
show yearly values.

The shaded areas are the

uncertainty intervals estimated
from a comprehensive analysis of
known uncertainties (a and b)
and from the time series (c)
 Global Temperature
• Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-
2006) rank among the twelve warmest
years in the instrumental record of
global surface temperature (since 1850)

• The temperature increase is widespread

over the globe and is greater at higher
northern latitudes. Land regions have
warmed faster than the oceans
What do climate scientists really think?
 Global Sea Level
• Rising sea level is consistent with warming.
Global average sea level has risen since 1961
at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm/yr
and since 1993 at 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm/yr,
with contributions from thermal expansion,
melting glaciers and ice caps, and the polar
ice sheets.
Global Sea Level Rise
 Snow and Ice
• Observed decreases in snow and ice extent
are also consistent with warming. Satellite
data since 1978 show that annual average
Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1
to 3.3]% per decade, with larger decreases
in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8]% per decade.

• Mountain glaciers and snow cover on

average have declined in both hemispheres.
Mountain Ice
 Global Precipitation Changes

• From 1900 to 2005, precipitation

increased significantly in eastern parts of
North and South America, northern
Europe and northern and central Asia but
declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean,
southern Africa and parts of southern
Asia. Globally, the area affected by
drought has likely increased since the
1970s.
 Warm Days and Heat Waves
• It is very likely that over the past 50 years:
cold days, cold nights and frosts have become
less frequent over most land areas, and hot
days and hot nights have become more
frequent.

• It is likely that: heat waves have become

more frequent over most land areas, the
frequency of heavy precipitation events has
increased over most areas, and since 1975 the
incidence of extreme high sea level has
increased worldwide.
 Tropical Cyclone
• There is observational evidence of an
increase in intense tropical cyclone
activity in the North Atlantic since about
1970, with limited evidence of increases
elsewhere.

• There is no clear trend in the annual

numbers of tropical cyclones. It is
difficult to ascertain longer-term trends
in cyclone activity, particularly prior to
1970.
Northern Hemisphere Temperatures

• Average Northern Hemisphere

temperatures during the second half
of the 20th century were very likely
higher than during any other 50-year
period in the last 500 years and likely
the highest in at least the past 1300
years.
 Terrestrial Ecosystems
• In terrestrial ecosystems, earlier timing of
spring events and poleward and upward shifts in
plant and animal ranges are with very high
confidence linked to recent warming.

• In some marine and freshwater systems, shifts

in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish
abundance are with high confidence associated
with rising water temperatures, as well as
related changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen
levels and circulation
 Regional Climate Change
• They include effects of temperature increases on:

• agricultural and forestry management at Northern

Hemisphere higher latitudes, such as earlier spring
planting of crops, and alterations in disturbance regimes
of forests due to fires and pests

• some aspects of human health, such as heat-related

mortality in Europe, changes in infectious disease
vectors in some areas, and allergenic pollen in Northern
Hemisphere high and mid-latitudes

• some human activities in the Arctic (e.g. hunting and

travel over snow and ice) and in lower-elevation alpine
areas (such as mountain sports).
 Regional Level Impact

Lake Chad – decrease in area 1963, 1973, 1987, 1997 and 2001.
 Summary

• According to the IPCC, Warming of

the climate system is unequivocal…

• There is enough evidence to support

the scientific position that our
climate is changing.