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FORECASTING
Sit Dolor Amet
Travel Demand Forecasting is a key component of the transportation engineer’s
technical repertoire. It allows the engineer to predict the volume of traffic that
will use a given transportation element in the future, whether that element is an
existing highway or a potential light-rail route.
Overview of the TDF Process
Travel Demand Forecasting is a multi-stage process, and there are several different techniques that can be used at each stage. Generally,
Travel Demand Forecasting involves five interrelated tasks.
1. Break the area that requires prediction of future travel demand into study zones that can be accurately described by a few variables.
2. Calculate the number of trips starting in each zone for a particular trip purpose. (Trip Generation Analysis)
3. Produce a table of the number of trips starting in each zone and ending up in each other zone. (Trip Distribution Analysis)
4. Complete the allocation of the various trips among the available transportation systems (bus, train, pedestrian, and private vehicles).
(Modal Choice Analysis)
5. Identify the specific routes on each transportation system that will be selected by the travelers. (Trip Assignment Analysis)
OVER-ALL PROCEDURE
Description of the Study Area
◦ Study Boundary
Before forecasting the travel for an urban area or region, the planner must clearly
define the exact area to be considered. These areas may be defined by the urban
growth boundary (UGB), county lines or town centers. The planning area generally
includes all the developed land, plus undeveloped land that the area will encompass
in the next 20 to 30 years.
◦ The study area must then be divided into analysis units, or zones. This will enable the planner to link
information about activities, travel, and transportation to the physical locations in the study area.
The transportation analysis zones (TAZ) vary in size depending on the density or nature of the
development. In an urban area the TAZ may be as small as a city block, but in rural areas the TAZ may
be as large as 10 or more square miles. The zones attempt to encompass homogeneous urban activities,
which are all residential, all commercial, or all industrial. Zones are designed to be relatively
homogeneous traffic generators and are sized so that only 10-15% of the trips are intra-zonal.
Description of the Study Area
◦ Income sub-model: reflects the distribution of households within various income categories (e.g. high,
medium and low).
◦ Auto ownership sub-model: relates the household income to auto ownership.
◦ Trip production sub-model: establishes the relationship between the trips made by each household and
the independent variables.
◦ Trip purpose sub-model: relates the trip purposes to income in such a manner that the trip productions
can be divided among various purposes. These models are developed using origin-destination travel
surveys.
Cross-Classification Procedure
1. Get data according to what sub-model is to consider.
Cross-Classification Procedure
2. DIVIDE TRIPS BY THE NO. OF USERS OR HOUSEHOLD IN THE INITIAL DATA.
◦ Multiply trip rates to the forecasted data
NO. OF HOUSEHOLD OWNING # VEHICLE
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
0 17 11 0
1 39 227 11
2 9 115 44
3+ 0 7 20
TRIP GENERATED
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
0 34 33 0
3+ 0 126 460
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
0 17 11 0
TOTAL TRIPS: 5260 TRIPS
1 39 227 11
2 9 115 44
3+ 0 7 20