Data analytics & R

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
SIDDHARTH
BFT SEM 6
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING & TIME
SERIES
• Exponential smoothing is a time series forecasting method for univariate data that can be extended to support data with a
systematic trend or seasonal component.
• Exponential smoothing forecasting methods are similar in that a prediction is a weighted sum of past observations, but
the model explicitly uses an exponentially decreasing weight for past observations.
• Collectively, the methods are sometimes referred to as ETS models, referring to the explicit modeling of Error, Trend and
Seasonality.
• There are three main types of exponential smoothing time series forecasting methods.
• A simple method that assumes no systematic structure, an extension that explicitly handles trends, and the most
advanced approach that add support for seasonality.
• Single Exponential Smoothing
• Single Exponential Smoothing, SES for short, also called Simple Exponential Smoothing, is a time series forecasting
method for univariate data without a trend or seasonality.
• It requires a single parameter, called alpha (a), also called the smoothing factor or smoothing coefficient.
• This parameter controls the rate at which the influence of the observations at prior time steps decay exponentially. Alpha
is often set to a value between 0 and 1. Large values mean that the model pays attention mainly to the most recent past
observations, whereas smaller values mean more of the history is taken into account when making a prediction.
RESEARCH PAPER REFERANCE
Prediction of weft breaks in air jet weaving
machine though ANN .
• The most important factors affecting the air jet weaving machine’s efficiency are warp and weft breaks
which are strongly connected to the yarn and machine parameters. The objective of this paper is to predict the
number of weft breaks per million meters using back propagation algorithm in an artificial neural network system.
Two models are used: first utilizing twelve parameters for the input layer and second applies only the five most
correlated yarn parameters. The developed algorithm can predict the number of weft breaks per million meters. The
results gave satisfactory coefficient of correlations (0.955) between the actual and predicted number of weft breaks.

• Shaimaa Youssef El-Tarfawy Textile Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Egypt has done
this reserch.
PROBLEM FOR FORECAST
• After studying the research paper I have tried to forecast number of
times air jet machine can show error for 2 years after analyzing the data
of past 18 years using Simple exponential smoothing using univariant
analysis .
• The objective here is to predict the errors that will happen in LOOM
SHADE 3 PICANOLE air jet weaving machine during weaving in the
manufacturing setup.
• From 2000 January I have prepared a random data set in MS excel using
RandBTween function with upper limit of 350 lovwer of 50 and tried to
predict for the year 2019-20. This data Range I got from Mr. Aniket(PD)
RAW DATA :
Loom shade 3 Bhasker denim Mandideep
COADING
Seasonal plot
Decompostion
Simple exponential smoothing:
• Forecast method : Simple exponential smoothing
• Model information : SEC
• Call : ses(y=x,h=12)
• Smoothing parameters : alpha = 1e-04
• Intial stages : 0.1046
• Sigma : 120.0475
Forecast Graphs : SEC
Forecast : SEC
Forecast : SEC
Thanks