Integrated Air Quality Analysis

and Modeling
 How does Air Pollution Impact
your Health?
Source Concentrations Dose
Emissions Exposure Impacts

Best Controls Best Measurement Greatest Concern

Main Messages
• Using data available today, appro-
priate modeling tools can support &
validate decisions
• Modeling simplifies reality & exam-
ines options and outcomes to help
use scarce resources efficiently &
focus on the “correct” pollutants,
sources, and options
Possible Modeling Applications
• Emissions Inventory
• Dispersion Modeling
• Receptor Modeling
• Economic Modeling
• Integrated Decision Support
Systems
Emission Inventories

• Introduction
• What is an Emission Inventory
• Why do we need them
• How do we create them
• How and where do we use them
• Issues related to Asia
• What is an Emission Inventory?
 Complete listing, by source, of air
pollutant emissions
 Covers a specific geographic area
 Covers a specific period of time
 Organized by type of data (e.g., point,
stationary non-point, mobile,
biogenic)
• Why are Emission Invent-
ories needed?
 Planning: identifies major
contributors; establishes current level
of control; basis for developing a
control strategy
 Permitting, emissions fees
 Public information
 Tracking emissions over time
• What can Emission Inventories
tell you?
 Where air pollution is emitted
 How much is emitted from each
source
 What sources would be most effective
to control
• What can Emission Inventories
NOT tell you?
 The distance that air pollutant emis-
sions are transported
 The amount of air pollution to which
people are exposed
 The health risk from
the air pollution
• Emission Inventories: How to
determine emissions?
 Continuous emission monitors
 Periodic stack tests
 Emission factors
 Material balance
• Emission Factors:
What are they?
 Rate of emissions per level of activity
 Apply to similar sources
 Generally, more uncertain than actual
measurements
• Emission Factors:
What are they based on?
 Continuous Emission or Periodic
Emission Testing
 Material Balance
 Fuels Analysis
 EF Models
 Engineering Judgment
• Emission Factors: Information
Sources
 Internet:
• EPA Chief Website
• ADB & WB sites
 In Print:
• WB URBAIR Series
• Conferences
 EF Models
• EPA Mobile 6, VAPIS
 Calculated/Estimated
• Source Activity Information:
Required for Each Source
 Vehicle Km/day
 Metric tons of product/yr.
 Barrels or tons of fuel burned/yr.
• Example of Model Calculation
(EmissionPM)
= Distance Travelled (km/yr) (tons PM/km) x
Emission Factor (tons of PM/yr) x No. of
vehicles
 Sample Calculation:
 Distance Traveled (km/yr) :
50 km/day or 18,250 km/yr
 Emission Factor (tons PM/km):
1 g/km or 0.000001 tons PM/km
 No. of vehicles:
100,000
Therefore, EmissionPM = 182.5
tons/year
• Source Activity Information:
Data Required
 Annual Estimate
 Seasonal Distribution
 Source Location or Distribution by
Grid (Area Sources)
 Future Activity
• Source Activity Information: Data
Typically Available
 Vehicle Registration by Mode &
Traffic Projections
 Fuel Use – Vehicles, Industry, Home
 Industrial Production
 Census Data - Population, Growth
Rates, Distribution within City
 Weather – Temperature Affects
Heating Emissions;
Rainfall Affects Road Dust
• Source Activity Information:
Handling Data Gaps
 Design & Conduct Surveys
 Use Surrogate Indicators
• Instead of Vehicle-Km use Fuel Sales &
Fuel Mileage Estimates
 Be Clever !
Compile emissions data for various sources:

Building an Inventory

Point Area Sources NonRoad OnRoad

Sources Mobile Mobile
Sources Sources

Inventory
• Building an Inventory, Requires :
 Planning, Computerization, Docu-
mentation
 Training
 An On-Going, Continuous Effort
 GIS Applications
Dispersion Modeling
Air Quality Modeling
• Introduction
• Types of models
• Why do we need them
• How do we create them
• How and where do we use them
• Issues related to Asia
Basic Principles
 Chemical Reaction
VOC + NO => NO2
NO2 + O2 => O3 + NO

• Complex: VOC & NOx Inventories

• Monitoring & Meteorological Data
Emission Plume Dispersion
Atmospheric Transport Time
Scales

Source: Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry, Jacob, D. J., 1999

Elements of an Air Quality
Modeling System
Compare with
Emissions Monitoring Data
(Sources)
Model:
Dispersion, Predictions:
Receptor Concentrations,
Chemistry,
locations Depositions
Deposition

Meteorology and
Topography
Characteristics of Models

• Source Impacts Proportional to Source

Emissions
• Short Stack Impacts > Tall Stacks
• Deposition (Dry & Wet): Surface
Roughness, Particle Size, Rainfall
• SOx & NOx Conversion Rates:
Aqueous (Cloud) Chemistry;
Oxidant Levels
Types of Models
• Box model: homogeneous chemical
balance and uniform mixing
• Gaussian plume model: statistical theory
of turbulence; assumes turbulent
diffusion primarily governed by the wind
flow pattern
• Eulerian model: gradient transport or
eddy diffusion model is based on the
mass balance around a differential
volume.
Assumptions of Box or Mixing
Cell Model
• Pollutant concentrations are homogen-
eous through the region of interest
• The source is distributed uniformly
(constant emission strength?)
• The emitted pollutants are
instantaneously and uniformly mixed
• A wind of constant speed across the cell
cross-section characterizes the transport
 Box or Mixing Cell Model

H = height
m 
M A  C Au Across u

W = width, m
L = length, m
MA
CA 
u HW
Gaussian Plume Models
Eulerian Grid Models
Modeling Difficulties

• Calm Winds
• Complex Terrain
• Upper Level Wind
Shear
• Getting Good Lapse
Rate Data
• Adequacy of Emission
Inventories
Conclusion:
Model selection criteria
• Analysis priorities
• Availability of model input data
• Availability of computational
facilities
• Technical assistance
• Model Validation
 Air Quality Source
Apportionment Methods
Objectives

Quantify source contributions by

sector to so that appropriate
policies can be drafted
Source Apportionment Uses

• Quantify contributions to PM2.5, PM10,

VOC, light extinction, and deposition
• Improve emissions inventories
• Verify source models
• Formulate conceptual models of source
receptor relationships
 Source and Receptor Models
Known Source
Emissions Source Estimated
Ambient
Known Dispersion Model Concentrations
Characteristics

Some Known
Source Emissions

Known Ambient Receptor Estimated

Concentrations Model Source Impacts
Some Known
Dispersion Char.
Conceptual Model

• Describes the relevant physical and

chemical processes
• Identifies potential sources of
primary emissions
• Documents potential for secondary
aerosol formation
Source Apportionment Receptor Models
• Chemical Mass Balance
• Enrichment factors (EF)
• Temporal and spatial correlation eigenvectors
(e.g., PCA, FA, EOF)
• Multiple linear regression (MLR)
• Neural networks
• Time series (e.g., spectral analysis, inter-
vention analysis, lagged regression analysis)
• Aerosol evolution and equilibrium
Chemical Mass Balance

Ci = Sj (Sj x Fij)
• Ci = Concentration of Specie “i”
• Fij = Fraction of Specie “i” in
Source “j”
• Sj = Contribution of Source “j”
(point, area, mobile)
Model Input & Assumptions

• Source Profiles
• Chemical Composition of PM
• Assumes:
 Source Profile is Unchanged
during Transport
 All Important Sources are
Included
 Chemical Analysis of PM

• Speciation •Soil Dust Profile

1000.00
 Carbon – EC/OC
 Trace Elements
100.00
 Ionic Species
• Sulfate
• Nitrate 10.00
• Ammonium
 Hydrocarbons 1.00
Al S K Ti Fe Cu Se Sr Pb
Si Cl Ca M Ni Zn Br Ba
Chemical Mass Balance
Methodology
• Simple Case:
 Pb = 1.0 ug/m3
 Fij in Auto Exhaust = 20%
 Contribution of Auto Exhaust is 5
ug/m3
Assumes: Autos are only source
of Pb.
Source 1 40 % of Source 1
20 % of Source 2
Source 2
40 % of Source 3
Source 3
CMB Applications

• Widely Used
 US
 China
 South Africa
• Based Solely on Aerosol Chemistry –
Inventory Not Required
• Complements Dispersion Modeling
Most Important Receptor
Model Needs
• What are the source properties that
identify and quantify source
contributions at a receptor?
• What receptor measurements are
needed to better distinguish among
sources?
 Sampling locations, periods and durations;
Particle sizes; Precursor gases; and
chemical and physical components
Emissions Characteristics
• Chemical Composition:
 Fractional abundance of elements, ions,
carbon, gases, isotopes, specific organic
compounds, particle shape.
• Emissions Rate:
 Amount emitted per unit of activity.
• Temporal Variation:
 Emissions change on daily, weekly, seasonal,
and annual cycles. The timing of emissions
affects their transport, dilution, and human
exposure to outdoor air pollution.
Vehicle Emissions
Quantification Methods
• Measure actual emissions from
representative sources at periodic intervals
• Conduct laboratory simulations of source
emissions
• Analyze feedstocks and assume mass
conservation for selected components
• Use US EPA AP-42 and MOBILE models,
even though they have no relevance to other
countries (but they’re “free”)
 Czech Republic PM2.5, winter '93 Chianjen, Taiwan, PM2.5, Feb/Mar '99

Worldwide Source 23%

10%
3% 19%
0%
0% 3%
Industry
Transportation
18% Vegetative burning (RWC)

Contribution Geological
Marine aerosol/Sea salt

Estimates 0%
0%
Sulfate/Secondary ammonium sulfate
Secondary ammonium nitrate
Secondary organics
24%
22% 17% Other/Unidentified

Toronto PM2.5, Summer '98 Sihwa, Korea, PM2.5, 1998-99

0%
0%0% 0% 6%
40%
19% 11% 4% 17% 9%
PM2.5 mass = 51.1±2.8 µg/m 3 PM2.5 mass = 48.2 µg/m3 29%
11%
3%
0%
0%
4%
0% 6%

1%
16%

63% 22%
PM2.5 mass = 12.4 µg/m 3 PM2.5 mass = 35.6±2.7 µg/m3
Downtown Los Angeles PM10, 1995 Mexico City PM2.5, 1989-90 South Africa PM2.5, winter '97 Antarctica PM10, 1995-97

8% 0% 4% 5% 0%0% 1% 0% 0%3%
13% 10% 15% 19% 10%1% 14%
0% 0%
0% 0%
0%
24% 1%
6% 15%
20% 0%
1%

11% 36% 0%
72%
50%
4% 57%
PM10 mass = 48.1±3.1 µg/m3 PM2.5 mass = 118.9 µg/m3 PM2.5 mass = 126 µg/m3 PM10 mass = 3.4±0.2 µg/m3
Conclusions

• Many methods for source apportionment

• The simpler the better
• Begin with a conceptual model, then design
measurements to test it
• Emissions characterization is still the weakest
link, both for source profiles AND emission
rates
• Multiple approaches provide more confidence…
or less confidence. Both are needed
Economic Modeling

• Cost Effectiveness Analysis

 Focus on Costs of Control

• Cost-Benefit Analysis
 Focus on Valuation of Benefits
(Damages) as well as Costs of
Control
Sample Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Emission Reduction = 372 tons/day

Incremental Cost ($/ton)

Total Cost = $2,440

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20 100 200 300 400 500
Emission Reduction (tons/day)

“Win-Win” option
Economic Modeling:
Optimal Pollution Abatement

What would be the “optimal” pollution control strategy?

Marginal Cost Curves for SOx Reduction

250
SOx: 500 tons/yr
Maginal Cost of

SOx: 100 tons/yr

Control ($/ton)

200
150
100
50

100 200 300 400 500 Firm B

SOx reduction (tons/year)
Firm A
Firm A Firm B
Limitations
• Poor Knowledge Base - sources,
emissions, ambient quality, health
impact, costs/benefits ...
• Institutional capacity and
organization
• Limited Stakeholder involvement
• Financial constraints
• Poor decision-making framework
Main Messages

• Modeling simplifies reality & helps

examine issues, options and outcomes
to help use scarce resources efficiently
and focus on the “correct” pollutants,
sources, and options
• Using data and tools available today,
appropriate modeling tools can support
& validate decisions
Modeling & Decision Support
Systems
The “Blame Game”…
Considerations for
Decision-making
• Cost effectiveness • Economic incentives
of options and disincentives
• Ease of • Social and
Implementation distributional issues
• Public Acceptability
• Political
• Legal framework
Acceptability and
• Institutional capacity Will
and organizational
structure • Public awareness
 Integrated Approach to AQM
Ambient Concentration

Sources & Emissions Exposure

Policy Air Quality Technical

Issues Management Options
System
Recent Relevant Trends &
Events: Demand-Side

• Complex Stakeholder Perspectives

• Increasing Participatory and
Transparent Information-based
Decision-Making; Growing
Institutional Capacity
• Information overload, yet, relevant
information always seems missing!
Recent Relevant Trends &
Events: Supply-Side
• Information Technology Progress
• Development of complex
methodologies and options in
environmental engineering,
economics and policy
• Decision Support System Tools -
becoming more powerful, easier to
use, attracting non-programmers
Why Model in an Economic
Framework?
• Develop comparative economic esti-
mates (e.g. examine costs and benefits)
of various options
• Avoid wastage of resources by focusing
on the “right” pollutants and sources
• Arrive at consensus decisions with a
strong analytical base
• Integrate views of various stakeholders
• Make best use of available information