• 2011 to 2028

• address urgent and

immediate needs and
concerns relating to the
dangerous consequences of
climate change to
vulnerable sectors such
as agriculture, water
resources, ecosystems,
humans and infrastructure
services
• Keeping the Promise in the
President’s Social Contract
• Adopted 11-22-11
Aren't Weather and Climate the
Same?

According to the American Meteorological

Society (AMS), weather is defined as the
state of the atmosphere at some place and
time, usually expressed in terms of
temperature, air pressure, humidity, wind
speed and direction, precipitation and
cloudiness.
Aren't Weather and Climate the
Same?

Climate is defined in terms of the

average (mean) of weather elements
(such as temperature and
precipitation) over a specified period
of time. (The World Meteorological
Organization defines the typical time
period as 30 years.)
Köppen's Climate Classification System

Type of Climate Characteristics

Tropical Humid and average temperature above 18°C (64°F)
Evaporation exceeding precipitation with constant water
Dry
deficiency throughout the year
Humid and warm or hot summers and mild winters with
Moderate
average temperatures between -3°C (27°F) and 18°C (64°F)
Humid and warm summers with the average temperature of
Continental warmest month exceeding 10°C (50°F) cold winters with
average temperature of coldest month below -3°C (27°F)

Extremely cold winters and average temperature of the

Polar
warmest summer month below 10°C (50°F)
What Is Abrupt Climate Change?
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program defines
abrupt climate change as “a change in the climate (for
example, in temperature or precipitation) that takes
place over a few decades or less, persists for at least a
few decades, and causes substantial disruptions in
human and natural systems.”

Abrupt climate change may affect

the entire globe or just a region.
 Extreme Weather Events
How “Extreme” Is Extreme?
All weather events that cause loss
of life, disrupt normal human
activities, and result in property
damage appear extreme.

“It is very likely that there has been

an overall decrease in the number
of cold days and nights, and an
overall increase in the number of
warm days and nights
 Are Extreme Weather Events Increasing?
The Case of:
 Typhoon Sisang (Nov 23-27, 1987: 240kph, 979 deaths)
 Tyhoon Rosing (Angela: Nov 4, 1995 260kph, 926 deaths)
 Typhoon Loleng (Oct 18-24, 1998 250kph 930 deaths)
 Typhoon Harorot
 Typhoon Milenyo
 Tyhoon Reming (Nov 26- Dec 1, 2006 320kph 734 deaths)
 Tropical Storm Ondoy
 Typhoon Labuyo
 Tropical Storm Sendong (Dec 2011, 195kph 1200 deaths)
 Habagat effects enhanced by the Typhon Juaning in Albay
 Typhoon Pablo (Bopha, 280kph, 1100 deaths)
 Typhoon Yolanda (Nov 2013, 315kph 6340 deaths)
Greenhouse Gases
1. Water vapor (H2O) is the strongest
greenhouse gas, and the concentration
of this gas is largely controlled by the
temperature of the atmosphere.
As air becomes warmer, it can hold
more moisture or water vapor. When
the air becomes saturated (or holds as
much moisture as the air can at that
temperature), the excess moisture will
condense into cloud droplets.
And if these droplets are large enough,
they will fall as precipitation.
 Greenhouse Gases
2. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is also an important
greenhouse gas.
It has a long lifetime in Earth's atmosphere. Carbon
dioxide strongly absorbs energy with a wavelength of
15 μm (micrometers). This makes carbon dioxide a
good absorber of wavelengths falling in the infrared
radiation region of the spectrum.
Carbon dioxide constantly moves into and out of the
atmosphere through four major processes:
photosynthesis, respiration, organic
decomposition or decay, and combustion or the
burning of organic material.
 Greenhouse Gases
3. Methane (CH4) is 30 times stronger than carbon
dioxide as an absorber of infrared radiation. Methane,
however, is present in smaller concentrations than
carbon dioxide, so its net contribution to the greenhouse
effect is not as large.
Methane is also relatively short-lived (lasting
approximately 8 years) in the atmosphere.
Methane is produced when bacteria decompose
organic plant and animal matter in such places as
wetlands (e.g., marshes, mudflats, flooded rice fields),
sewage treatment plants, landfills, and the guts of cattle
and termites.
 Greenhouse Gases
4. Halocarbons are composed of carbon, chlorine,
fluorine, and hydrogen.
They include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are
man-made gases commonly used in refrigerators
and air conditioners.
Concentrations of CFC gases in the atmosphere are
the highest of any of the halocarbons, and they can
absorb more infrared radiation than any other
greenhouse gas. The impact of 1 molecule of a CFC gas
is equivalent to 10,000 molecules of carbon dioxide.
 Greenhouse Gases
5. Nitrous oxide (N2O), a relatively long-lived gas, has
increased in atmospheric concentration due mainly to
agriculture. Nitrate (NO3-) and ammonia (NH4+) are used
as fertilizers. Bacteria convert a small amount of this
nitrate and ammonia into the form of nitrous oxide.
Internal combustion engines also produce nitrous oxide.
6. Ozone (O3) is also a relatively minor greenhouse gas
because it is found in relatively low concentrations in the
troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere). In the
troposphere, it is produced by a combination of
pollutants — mostly hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxide
compounds.
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Gases
I. The sun's visible
wavelengths of radiation
pass easily through the
atmosphere and reach
Earth. Approximately
51% of this sunlight is
absorbed at Earth's
surface by the land,
water, and vegetation.
Temperature Over Time
Professor Ross
McKitrick from the
University of
Guelph in Canada
studied land and
ocean temperatures
since 1850. He
compared this to
satellite data from
1979 to 2014. By
plotting trends in
this data, he has
concluded that
global warming has
been on pause for
19 years
(illustrated) 'Global warming has been on pause for 19 years':
Study reveals Earth's temperature has
remained almost CONSTANT since 1995
 Causes of Climate Change
Radiative Forcings
Any factor that causes a change to Earth’s energy
balance is known as a radiative forcing or a forcing.
A positive forcing, such as that produced by
increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, tends to
warm the Earth’s surface.
A negative forcing, such as that produced by airborne
particulates that reflect solar energy, tends to cool the
Earth’s surface.
Forcings may also be either natural- or human-caused
(also known as anthropogenic).
Natural Causes of Climate Change

The figure on the left shows

the alignment of each of the
orbital changes to the glacial
and interglacial periods.
The interplay of the three
orbital cycles affects the
amount of solar radiation
received at different latitudes
over the year.
The amount of solar radiation
reaching the Northern
Hemisphere at 65°N seems to
control the advance and retreat
of glaciers and ice sheets.
 Natural Causes of Climate Change

Volcanic eruptions discharge

carbon dioxide, but they may also
emit aerosols, such as volcanic ash
or dust, and sulfur dioxide. Aerosols
are liquids and solids that float
around in the air.
They may also include soot, dust,
salt crystals, bacteria, and viruses.
Aerosols scatter incoming solar
radiation, causing a slight cooling
effect. Volcanic aerosols can
block a percentage of sunlight
and cause a cooling that may last
for 1-2 years.
 Natural Causes of Climate Change
Approximately every 11 years, the
number of sunspots changes from a
maximum number to a minimum
number.
The sun emits slightly more radiation
during active periods of sunspots.
Because the sunspots are
suppressing heat, the heat flows
to surrounding areas causing
Sunspots are darker areas on the these regions to be brighter than
sun’s surface. A sunspot develops normal, radiating more heat.
where an intense magnetic field
weakens the flow of gases that
While more sunspots may contribute
transport heat energy from the to warmer global climate, less
sun’s interior. Sunspots appear sunspots appear to be associated with
dark because their temperature is
lower than the surrounding area.
a cooler global climate.
 Natural Causes of Climate Change

As tectonic plates move over

Movement of Crustal Plates geological timescales,
landmasses are carried along to
different positions and
latitudes.
These changes affect global
circulation patterns of air and
ocean water and the climate of
the continents.
 Natural Causes of Climate Change
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

El Niño is also known as the warm-water phase of the ENSO. El

Niño causes the water temperature off of South America to be
warmer.
An El Niño warm-water phase changes global weather patterns.
South America experiences wetter than average weather, while
North America experiences mild but stormier winter weather.
During an El Niño warm water phase, there are fewer and less
intense hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean because the rising
warmer air over the eastern Pacific Ocean causes more wind
shear and hurricanes are not able to form in the Caribbean Sea.
Sometimes, after an El Niño phase subsides, a colder-than-
normal water phase, known as La Niña, results.
 DATA IN CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS USING GIS
No. Climatic Events Impact Sources
Decrease by 20 percent, but increase in intensity. IPCC 2007,
1 Rainfall Increase risk of soil erosion and occurrence of landslide. Godilano, E.C. 2005
Decrease rainy days but intensity will be higher than Rosenzweig and
2 Rainy Days normal, growing periods may shorten by approximately Parry, 1994.
IP CC 2007
30 days
Increase intensity and occurrence and may trigger
3 Typhoons landslides and flooding of coastal areas. IPCC 2007
Increase by 3 percent, more frequent and persistent El
Maximum Niño episodes, and increased evaporation. Crop duration IPCC 2007, NOAA,
4
shortened between one and four weeks. Drought will be 2007.
temperature
longer and more intense, heat waves occurrence.
Increase flooding depth, frequency, intensity, and severe IPCC 2007,
5 Flooding landslides Brakenridge, G.R.
2004.
6 Ground Water Decrease water availability, poor quality, and salt
intrusion IPCC 2007
Potential
(GWP)
Upward trend, can alter geographic distribution of pest Elliott, 1995; Rind,
7 Humidity and diseases 1998
Increase in total cloud cover, decrease photosynthesis.
Cloudiness Clouds regulate the amount of sunlight received by the NOAA, 2007. NASA
8
surface and so influence evaporation from the surface, Water Vapor Project
(NVAP),E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
1992
 CLIMATE
CHANGE
Rainfall: Decrease by 20 percent, but
GLOBAL CO2
NO2 increase in intensity.
WARMING NH4
CFC
Rainy Days: Decrease rainy days but
intensity will be higher than normal.
Anthropogenic Typhoon: Increase intensity and
Sources occurrence.
Temperature: Increase by 3 % more
IMPACT frequent and persistent El Niño and La Niña
1.SFLOODING episodes, and increased evaporation.
2. DROUGHT Flooding: Increase flooding depth,
3. LANDSLIDE:
frequency, intensity, and severe landslides
4. SEA LEVEL
RISE Ground Water Potential: Decrease water
5. COINCIDENC availability, poor quality, and salt intrusion
E DAMAGE Humidity: Upward trend, can alter
geographic distribution of pest and
diseases
Cloudiness: Increase in total cloud cover,
decrease photosynthesis.
Biophysical and Edaphic: erosion, soils,
THEMATIC
MAPS forest fires, land degradation, geology.

E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.

Impacts of Climate Change
Abstract art at Burning Man? Nope, these are empty boat slips protruding from an
abandoned dock at Nevada's Lake Mead National Recreation Area. Lake Mead is North
America's largest man-made reservoir, storing water for millions of people across seven
states. Well, it used to anyway.
Lake Mead, Nevada
Thanks to 14 years of drought fueled by climate change, and increased demand
from cities, agriculture, and the oil and gas industry, Lake Mead is drying up.
California is losing the battle against the drought too.
At the end of June 2014, California’s 154 intrastate
reservoirs stood at only 60% of their historical average,
yet there are twice as many people living in the state
than ever before.
Fish Kill
 Local Impacts of Climate Change
1. Temperature increase that may result to change in
weather or climate patterns
2. Severe rainfall causing flooding, landslides, mud
flows, flash flood, storm surges
3. Severe wind
4. Sea level rise due to ground subsidence caused by
continuous erosion through run on and run off.
5. Etc.
 The Consequences
(Destructions and Damages)

1. Massive economic 2. Infrastructures and

losses. settlements
1. Business 1. Houses of light
2. Industrial damages materials
3. Agriculture 2. Water system
4. Forest and habitat 3. Electricity
5. River system and 4. Communication
coastlines system
6. Lack of income/ ;ow 5. Rods and bridges
purchasing power
6. Irrigation system etc.
7. Poverty in general.
 The Consequences
(Destructions and Damages)

3. Social
1. School drop outs
2. Housing
3. Epidemics outbreaks
4. Out migration
5. Psycho social problem
6. Water supply
7. Crime rate increase
8. Famine, etc
 Mitigation and Adaptation
1. Reduction of carbon gas 8. Crop zoning, multiple
emission cropping, container
2. More green vegetations gardening, organic
3. Storm water farming
management 9. Renewable energy
4. Sturdy infrastructures 10. Waste segregation
and housing designs 11. Education, reorientation
5. Use of appropriate and and concientization
climate suitable varieties 12. Land use planning
6. Seasonal cropping 13. Ecology
pattern and planting
14. Policy and discipline
calendar.
15. Etc.
THEREFORE
The Garbage
REUSE
RECYCLE
Intermediate Outcomes
Human
Ecological
Ecological and
and Climate-Smart
Climate-Smart
Environmental Security Industries
Industries and
and
Environmental
Stability
Stability Services
Services

Water Sustainable
Sufficiency Energy

Knowledge
Knowledge and
and
Food
Capacity
Capacity
Security Development
Development

Successful
transition
towards
climate-smart
development.

Ultimate
Ultimate Outcomes
Outcomes
END OF PRESENTATION