Probabilit

y
Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The
best we can say is how likely they are to happen, using the
idea of probability.

Probability is how likely something

is to happen
 
When a coin is tossed, there are two  
When a single die is thrown, ,there
possible outcome: heads or tails.
are six possible outcomes. The
Therefore the probability of landing
probability of any one of them is
on either one is
The probability that an event A occurs,
 
 “
Sample Space

All the possible outcomes of an

experiment
 Frequency Table
 
Two dice, one red and one blue are thrown and the sum of the numbers showing
on the two dice are added. Event A is that the total scored is 5, event B is that the
total is greater than 8 and event C is that the total is not 3. Represent this on a
sample space diagram, and hence calculate

Red Die
1 2 3 4 5 6   4 1
𝑃 ( 𝐴 )= =
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 36 9
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Blue Die 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
  10 5
𝑃 ( 𝐵 )= =
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 36 18
5 6 7 8 9 10 11   34 17
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 𝑃 (𝐶)= =
36 18
 Contingency Table
A scientist investigating the incidence of tumours treated in a particular hospital
in 2002, grouped the patients by age and classified the tumours as malignant and
benign. The table below shows the results of the investigation of the 200 patients
treated:

Type of Age of Patient (in years) Total

Tumour Under 25 25 - 54 55 or older

Malignant 15 37 72 124
Benign 18 43 15 76
Total 33 80 87 200
 Type of Age of Patient (in years) Total
Tumour Under 25 25 - 54 55 or older

Malignant 15 37 72 124
Benign 18 43 15 76
Total 33 80 87 200

The scientist randomly selected a patient for an in depth study.

  124 31
𝑃 ( 𝑀 )= =
a. What is the probability that the patient selected was treated for a malignant tumour? 200 50
  113
𝑃 ( ¿ 55 )=
b. What is the probability that a patient selected was less than 55 years old? 200

c. What is the probability that the patient selected was treated for a malignant tumour or was less
  124+ 18 140 7
than 25 years old? 𝑃 ( 𝑀 𝑜𝑟 <25 ) = = 𝑜𝑟
200 200 10

d. Given that a patient with a malignant tumour is selected, what is the probability that the patient
  15
𝑃 ( 𝑀 → <25 )=
selected was under 25 years old? 124
 Contingency Table
A record is kept of books borrowed from a lending library. The table below shows
the number of overdue books outstanding at the end of the week.

Adult Child
Man Woman Boy Girl Total
Fiction 17 10 14 20 61
Non-Fiction 9 14 5 11 39
Total 26 24 19 31 100

One of these books is requested by another reader. Determine the probability that:
  5
𝑃 ( 𝑁 , 𝐵 )=
a. It is non-fiction, borrowed by a boy 39
  30
b. It is fiction, borrowed by a female 𝑃 ( 𝐹 , 𝐹 )=
61
  17
c. It is borrowed by a man, given that it is fiction. 𝑃 ( 𝐹 , 𝑀 )=
61
d. It was borrowed by an adult or a boy 𝑃 ( 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 )= 50 + 19 = 69
100 100 100
 “
Venn Diagrams
 Common Terms

Mutually Exclusive Events – Events that cannot occur at the

same time.

Independent Events – the incidence of one event does not

affect the probability of the other event.

Exhaustive Events – At least one of the events must occur.

 Rules

 
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ′ )= 1 − 𝑃 ( 𝐴 )

𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 )=𝑃 ( 𝐴 )+ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) − 𝑃( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
 

For Mutually Exclusive Events

 
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 )+ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )
 
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ) =0
For Independent Events
 
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 )× 𝑃 (𝐵 )
A marksman has two attempts to hit a target. The probability that his first shot hits
is 0.4 and the probability that his second shot hits the target is 0.5. Given that the
probability that he hits the target with both shots is 0.25, Find the probability that
he misses the target with both shots.
 
𝐹
 
𝑆  
𝑃 ( 𝐹 ) =0.4 , 𝑃 ( 𝑆 )=0.5 , 𝑃 ( 𝐹 ∩ 𝑆 )=0.25
 
𝑃 ( 𝐹 ∪ 𝑆 ) =𝑃 ( 𝐹 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝑆 ) − 𝑃( 𝐹 ∩ 𝑆)
0.4 − 0.25 0.25 0.5 −0.25
     

 
𝑃 ( 𝐹 ∪ 𝑆 ) =0.4+0.5 − 0.25=0.65
′
 
𝑃 ( 𝐹 ∪ 𝑆 ) =1 − 𝑃 (𝐹 ∪ 𝑆 )
′
 
𝑃 ( 𝐹 ∪ 𝑆 ) =1 − 0.65 =0.35
 On the staff of a certain Caribbean school there were 12 teachers qualified to teach
Science, 20 qualified to teach humanities and 7 staff members without teaching
qualifications. There was a total of 36 on the staff and one staff member was chosen at
random for further training, what is the probability that the chosen member of staff was
already qualified to teach both Science and Humanities?
 
𝑆  
𝐻
𝑛 ( 𝑆 )=12 , 𝑛 ( 𝐻 )=20 ,𝑛 ( 𝑆 ∪ 𝐻 )′ =7 ,𝑛 ( 𝜖 )=36
 

 
𝑛 ( 𝑆 ∪ 𝐻 )=𝑛 ( 𝜖 ) − 𝑛( 𝑆 ∪ 𝐻 ) ′
 
12− 3𝑥 𝑥
3
     
20 − 3𝑥  
𝑛 ( 𝑆 ∪ 𝐻 ) =36 − 7 = 29
𝑛 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 )=𝑛 ( 𝐴 ) +𝑛 ( 𝐵 ) −𝑛 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
 

29 =12+ 20 − 𝑥
 

 
𝑥 
= 33 1
𝑃 ( 𝑆 ∩ 𝐻 )= =
36 12
  
Events A and B are such that:

State whether A and B are a) Mutually Exclusive b) Independent

 
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩𝐵 )≠ 0 ∴
 
𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑣𝑒
  3 1 3
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) × 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )= × =
4 2 8 ∴
 
𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠