Name Grade Level VI-AQUAMARINE

W8 Learning Area/Quarter MATHEMATICS/FOURTH QUARTER Date July 5-9, 2021

Simple Predictions of Events with Problem Solving

Hi everyone! This will be the last lesson for the fourth quarter. Hope you are all still eager to learn more.
Now our country is starting to implement the vaccination against covid-19. Do you know how effective covid vaccines are?
According to WHO (World Health Organization) Pfizer BioNTech vaccine against COVID-19 has an efficacy of 95% against
symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Does it mean that getting a vaccine will save you from the virus?
To answer the question, you need to know the concept of probability. According to the data above the effectiveness of
Pfizer BioNTech vaccine is 95%. Using a number line from 0 to 1, we locate 95%

Based on the number line, we can say that if a person was vaccinated with Pfizer BioNTech, that person will certainly
not to suffer against severe COvid-19 because the number is closer to 1 or 100%.
The chance that something will happen is called Probability. It is used to describe how likely or unlikely something will
happen. Probability may be given in fraction, decimal or percent. The value of probability ranges from 0 to 1 (0 means the event is
impossible to happen, while 1 means the event is certain to happen.
The event is unlikely to happen when its probability is closer to 0, like winning a jackpot in a lottery where you only
have one in a million chance of winning. The event that is most likely to happen is closer to 1.

Example 1: There are colored small cubes inside a box. There are 4 blue, 2 yellow, 3 red and 1 green small cubes. What
is the likelihood of picking a yellow cube out of the box.
2 1
Since there are 10 colored cubes inside the box and there are 2 yellow. The chance of picking yellow cube is 𝑜𝑟 (2
10 5
out of 10) or 20%. So, it is unlikely to pick yellow out of the box.

When we use a formula to find the probability of an event, we are finding the theoretical probability. Theoretical
probability of an event is the number of ways that an event can occur divided by the total number of outcomes.
number of favorable outcomes
𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦=
number of possible outcomes
In our example the number of favorable outcomes is 2 since there are 2 yellow cubes and the number of possible
outcomes is 10 since there are total of 10 cubes inside the box.
2 1
𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦= 𝑜𝑟
10 5
1
Therefore, the theoretical probability of getting yellow cube is .
5
We can also find the probability of an event by doing an experiment. When we do this, we are finding experimental
probability. Experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the number of times an event occur to the total number of trials
or times the activity is performed.

number of ×favorable outcomes occur

𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦=
number of trials∈the experiment

Let us use the given example 1 in an experimental probability.

1. Take a cube inside the box.
 2. Record the color and return the cube in the box.
3. Repeat the process (at least 10 times)
4. Count the number of times a yellow cube was picked (supposed it is 4)
Using the formula, we have

number of ×favorable outcomes occur

𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦=
number of trials∈the experiment

4
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦=
10

2
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦=
5
Example 2: In a die what is the probability of getting a face with 1 dot? 3 dots? And 5 dots?

A die has 6 faces, with dots numbered 1-6. Each number is equally likely to occur

number of favorable outcomes

𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦=
number of possible outcomes
1
𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 1 𝑑𝑜𝑡)=
6
1
𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 3 𝑑𝑜𝑡𝑠)=
6
1
𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑔𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 5 𝑑𝑜𝑡𝑠)=
6
Example 3: Arkin is tossing a coin. He tossed the coin 50 times. It landed on tails 38 times. Find the probability of landing on
heads.
Since tails landed 38 times, therefore heads landed 12 times.
number of ×favorable outcomes occur
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦=
number of trials∈the experiment
12 6
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦= or
50 25
Example 4: A medical study tested new vaccine on 4800 participants. It is effective to 4200 participants. Find the experimental
probability of the effectiveness of the vaccine.
number of ×favorable outcomes occur
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦=
number of trials∈the experiment

4200 7
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦= or 0r 87.5%
4 8 00 8

7
The experimental probability that the vaccine is effective is 0r 87.5%
8
Theoretical probability is what we expect to happen, while experimental probability is what actually happens when we try it
out. As more trials conducted, the more experimental probability generally gets closer to the theoretical probability.

Learning Task 1: Directions: Tell whether the given situation is an “experimental” or “theoretical” probability.
Write your answer on the blank before a number.

____________1. Probability of getting a dot when rolling a die?

____________2. Tossing a coin 50 times, it landed head 22 times. What is the probability of landing a tail?
____________3. Chances of winning in a raffle contest.
____________4. A day chosen from a week.
____________5. A survey was conducted about efficacy of video lesson. 200 grade 6 pupils were the participants. 145 students
said it is affective and big help in modular distance learning.