Binomial Distribution

 KEY CONCEPTS:
We know that the combinations
formula
Random Variables
Variable: measurable characteristic.
Random Variable: variable that can have
different outcomes of an experiment,
determined by chance

Examples:
•X = outcome of roll of a die,
•Y = outcome of a coin toss,
•Z = height
 Random Variable:
There are two types of random variable as
follows:
* Discrete Random Variable
* Continuous Random Variable
 Discrete Random Variable, which can take only a
finite number or a countable infinity of values.
Examples: Dead/alive, treatment/placebo, dice, counts
 Continuous Random Variable, which can assume
values on a continuous scale or interval.
Examples: blood pressure, weight, the speed of a car, the
real numbers from 1 to 6.
The Binomial distribution is all about
success and failure.
When to use the Binomial Distribution
 A fixed number of trials
 Only two outcomes
 (true, false; heads tails; girl, boy…..)
 Each trial is independent

IF the random variable X has Binomial

distribution, then we write X ̴ B(n,p)
 Parameter
 n -Independent trials
Each trial can result in one of
two possible outcomes, labelled
success or failure.

 p – Probability of Success
P(Failure) = 1 – P(Success)
q= 1-p
Binomial Probability Distribution
A binomial random variable X is defined to the
number of “successes” in n independent trials
where the P(“success”) = p is constant.
The following conditions need to be satisfied
for a binomial experiment:
1. There is a fixed number of n trials carried out.
2. The outcome of a given trial is either a
“success” or “failure”.
3. The probability of success (p) remains constant
from trial to trial.
4. The trials are independent, the outcome of a
trial is not affected by the outcome of any
other trial.
 Binomial

 Example
 1. A dice is rolled 5 times
What is the probability it will show 6 exactly
3 times?
P(6)=1/6
P(Not 6)=5/6

 5
   5C 3  10
 3
 5  1   5 
3 2

         P(3 sixes in 5 rolls)

 3  6   6 
 Example
The Mean and Standard deviation of a Binomial
distribution are 5 and 2. Determine the distribution.

Answer:

Mean = np=5

S.D = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 2, Variance = 2

n=25, p = 1/5 and q = 4/5

The Binomial distribution is

𝑥 25−𝑥
𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥 = 25𝐶𝑥 1ൗ 4ൗ
5 5
 Example
The Mean and variance of a binomial distribution variate
are 8 and 6. Find P(X≥2).

Answer:

If Mean = np = 8 and variance = npq = 6 then n= 32

P= 1/4 and q=3/4

The binomial distribution is 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥 = 32𝐶𝑥 1Τ4 𝑥 3Τ 32−𝑥

4

P(X≥2) = 1- P(X<2) = 1 – [P(X=0)+P(X=1)] = 0.9988

 Example
If X is a random variable following binomial distribution
with mean 2.4 and variance 1.44 , find P(X ≥5)

Answer:

If Mean = np = 2.4 and variance = npq = 1.44 then n= 6

P= 0.4 and q=0.6

The binomial distribution is 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥 = 6𝐶𝑥 0.4 𝑥 0.6 6−𝑥

P(X≥5) = P(X=5) + P(X=6) = 0.04096

 Example
The probability of bomb hitting a target is 1/5. Two
bombs are enough to destroy a bridge. IF six bombs
are aimed at the bridge, find the probability that
the bridge is destroyed?

Answer:

P(hitting target) = 1/5, q=4/5 and n= 6

P(The bridge is destroyed) = p(X=2)

𝑃 𝑋 = 2 = 6𝐶2 1/5 2 4/5 6−2

= 0.25
 Example
10 coins are thrown simultaneously. Find the
probability of getting at least 7 heads?

Answer:

P(getting Success) = p = 1/2, q=1/2 and n = 10

P(getting at least 7 heads ):

𝑃 𝑋≥7 = P(X=7 ) + P(X=8) + P(X=9) + P(X=10)

=0.171875
 Example
4 coins were tossed simultaneously. What is the
probability of getting (i) exactly 2 heads (ii) at least 2
heads (iii) at most 2 heads.

Answer:

P(getting Success) = p = 1/2, q=1/2 and n = 4

P(Exactly two heads) = P(X=2) = 3/8

P(at least 2 heads) = P(X≥ 2) = P(x=2)+P(x=3)+P(x=4) =

11/16

P(at most 2 heads) = P(X≤ 2) = P(x=0)+P(x=1) +P(x=2) =11/16

 Exercise
If 10% of the screws produced by an automatic
machine are defective, find the probability that out
of 20 screws selected at random. There are (i)
exactly 2 defective (ii) at most 3 defective (iii) at
least 2 defective (iv) between 1 and 3 defective

Answer:

A machine manufacturing screws is known to produce

5% defective. In a random sample of 15 screws, what
is the probability that there are (i) exactly 3
defective (ii) not more than 3 defective

Answer:
 Example

Eggs are packed in boxes of 12. The probability
that each egg is broken is 0.35

Find the probability in a random box of eggs:

there are 4 broken eggs
12 
P( X  4)   0.354  0.65(124)  495  0.354  0.658
4
 0.235 to 3 significan t figures
 Eggs are packed in boxes of 12. The probability
that each egg is broken is 0.35. Find the
probability in a random box of eggs:

There are less than 3 broken eggs

P( X  3)  P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)

12  (12) 12  (11) 12 

  0.35  0.65   0.35  0.65   0.352  0.65(10)
0 1

0 1 2

 11 0.005688  12  0.351  0.6511  66  0.1225  0.01346  0.0151
Fitting a Binomial Distribution :

Expected Frequency or Theoretical frequency: N P(X=x)

10 coins are tossed 1024 times and the following frequencies are
observed. Compare these frequencies with expected frequencies.
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
f 2 10 38 106 188 257 226 128 59 7 3

Answer:

σ 𝑓𝑥
Mean = np =
σ𝑓
= and n=

P(X=x) = N P(x=0) + N P(x=1) + ……………………+ N P(x=10)

1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1

 Exercise
Fit a binomial distribution and compute the expected
frequencies for the following data:

x 0 1 2 3 4 5
f 2 14 20 34 22 8

Answer:
 Example
Treatment of Kidney Cancer
 Suppose we have n = 40 patients who will be
receiving an experimental therapy which is
believed to be better than current treatments
which historically have had a 5-year survival
rate of 20%, i.e. the probability of 5-year
survival is p = .20.

 Thus the number of patients out of 40 in our

study surviving at least 5 years has a binomial
distribution, i.e. X ~ B(40,.20).
Connection to Binomial
 This is a binomial experiment situation…
There are n = 40 patients and we are counting
the number of patients that survive 5 or more
years. The individual patient outcomes are
independent and IF WE ASSUME the new
method is NOT better then the probability of
success is p = .20 or 20% for all patients.

 So X = # of “successes” in the clinical trial is

binomial with n = 40 and p = .20,
i.e. X ~ B(40,.20)
Calculation :Treatment of Kidney Cancer

X ~ B(40,.20), find the probability that exactly

16 patients survive at least 5 years

 40  16 24
P ( X  16)   .20 .80  .001945
 16 
Also, keep in mind we need to find the
probability of having 16 or more patients
surviving at least 5 yrs.
BINOMIAL