Overview of Hydrologic Modeling for Project Studies

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 Objectives
• Describe the role of hydrologic modeling in
USACE studies
• Describe types of studies where watershed
modeling is generally applied
• Describe typical analysis procedures involving
watershed modeling
• Introduce the Punxsutawney Watershed

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 Runoff Process – Hydrologic Cycle

Condensation
Snow

Precipitation
Transpiration

Infiltration Surface
runoff
Spring Evaporation

Groundwater flow
Water table

Lake River
Ocean

Groundwater

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 Runoff Process

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 USACE Studies Requiring Watershed Modeling
• Flood Risk Management Feasibility Studies
• Floodplain Management
• Environmental Restoration
• Flood Forecasting
• Hydrologic Hazard Curve Development for Dam and Levee Safety
• Development of Probable Maximum Flood or Inflow Design Flood
for Dam Safety
• Determination of Pump Station / Interior Drainage Adequacy for
Levee Safety
• Reservoir Storage Reallocation or Water Control Manual Updates

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 Typical Flood Risk Management Feasibility Study
Requirements
Evaluate the cost effectiveness of proposed
alternatives regarding the reduction of flood damage
magnitude, duration, and/or frequency

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 Flow
Flow

Stage 1 Exceedance probability 0

Damage

Damage

Stage 1 Exceedance probability 0

 Typical Flood Risk Management Feasibility Study
Procedures
When hydrologic modeling is NOT required to fill in data gaps…
• Define study objectives & information needs
• Obtain available streamflow, GIS, etc data
• Develop discharge- and stage-frequency curves for
gaged locations
• Assist economist in developing Without Project
stage-damage and damage-frequency curves
• Apply With Project conditions
• Determine EAD and BCR for all alternatives

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 Develop Flow-Frequency Curves

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 Develop Flow-Frequency Curves

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 Develop Flow-Frequency Curves

Bulletin 17C Procedures

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 Utilize Regional Information

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 Typical Flood Risk Management Feasibility Study
Procedures
When hydrologic modeling IS required to fill in data gaps…
• Define modeling domain
– Entire contributing drainage area or smaller area?
• Choose modeling approaches
– Initial and Constant or Green-Ampt losses?
• Discretize modeling domain
– Create elements (subbasins, routing reaches, etc)
• Parameterize elements using chosen modeling
approaches
• Assemble hydrologic model
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 Typical Flood Risk Management Feasibility Study
Procedures (continued)
• Calibrate the model using at least two events with observed data
• Validate the model using at least one independent event with
observed data
• Develop Without Project conditions
• Develop hypothetical frequency-based storms and apply to
determine flow-frequency at desired locations for Without Project
conditions
• Develop With Project conditions
• Apply hypothetical storms to determine flow-frequency at desired
locations for With Project conditions
• Assist in the determination of stage-frequency for all alternatives
• Assist economist in the determination of EAD and BCR for all
alternatives
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 Develop Model Parameters
Elevations Land Uses Soil Types

Example Unit Hydrograph Example Deficit and Constant Loss

Transform Regression Equations Parameters
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 Calibrate Model Parameters

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 Calibrate Model Parameters
What is wrong with the model output?
Is this model adequate to
develop flow-frequency relationships?

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 Calibrate Model Parameters

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 Flow-Frequency from Event-Based Simulations
NOAA Atlas 14 Precipitation-Frequency

Flow-Frequency

7 ,00 0
1.8 HARLOWTR2_CF RUN:1000YR_EVENT FLOW
BIGHEARTCR_S50 RUN:1000YR_EVENT PRECIP-INC HARLOWTR2_CF RUN:100YR_EVENT FLOW
BIGHEARTCR_S50 RUN:500YR_EVENT PRECIP-INC HARLOWTR2_CF RUN:10YR_EVENT FLOW
BIGHEARTCR_S50 RUN:200YR_EVENT PRECIP-INC

Hyetographs
1.6 6 ,00 0 HARLOWTR2_CF RUN:1YR_EVENT FLOW
BIGHEARTCR_S50 RUN:100YR_EVENT PRECIP-INC HARLOWTR2_CF RUN:200YR_EVENT FLOW
BIGHEARTCR_S50 RUN:50YR_EVENT PRECIP-INC HARLOWTR2_CF RUN:25YR_EVENT FLOW
BIGHEARTCR_S50 RUN:25YR_EVENT PRECIP-INC
1.4 HARLOWTR2_CF RUN:2YR_EVENT FLOW
BIGHEARTCR_S50 RUN:10YR_EVENT PRECIP-INC
HARLOWTR2_CF RUN:50YR_EVENT FLOW
BIGHEARTCR_S50 RUN:5YR_EVENT PRECIP-INC 5 ,00 0
HARLOWTR2_CF RUN:5YR_EVENT FLOW
BIGHEARTCR_S50 RUN:2YR_EVENT PRECIP-INC
1.2
BIGHEARTCR_S50 RUN:1YR_EVENT PRECIP-INC

4 ,00 0
1.0

Runoff
Prec ip (in)

Flow (cfs )

0.8
3 ,00 0

0.6 Hydrographs
2 ,00 0
0.4

0.2 1 ,00 0

0.0
00 :00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00
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0
00 :00 0 6 :00 1 2 :00
0 1 Fe b20 9 9
18 :00 00 :0 0 06 :00 12 :0 0
0 2 Fe b20 9 9
19
 Flow-Frequency from Continuous Simulation
60 years of Precipitation
Input to HEC-HMS
Estimate Flow-Frequency

60Extract
years Annual
of Runoff
Computed by Flows
Maximum HEC-HMS

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Common Hydrologic Modeling Outputs
• Flow-frequency curves for Without and With
Project conditions
• Hydrographs for environmental analysis (highs,
lows, durations)
• Inflows, pool elevations, and outflows for dam
safety studies
• Forecasted flows and pool elevations
• Hydrographs for hydraulic models
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 Guidance Documents
• Flood Runoff Analysis (EM 1110-2-1417)
• Hydrologic Engineering Requirements for Flood Damage
Reduction Studies (EM 1110-2-1419)
• Inflow Design Flood for Dams and Reservoirs (ER 1110-8-2)
• Hydrologic Analysis of Interior Areas (EM 1110-2-1413)
• Runoff from Snowmelt (EM 1110-2-1406)
• Hydrologic Frequency Analysis (EM 1110-2-1415)
• Hydrologic Engineering Studies Design (EP 1110-2-9)
• https://www.publications.usace.army.mil/USACE-Publications
/Engineer-Manuals/
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 Punxsutawney Watershed

Punxsutawney, PA

Philadelphia, PA
Pittsburgh, PA

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 Punxsutawney Watershed

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 Punxsutawney Watershed

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 Punxsutawney Watershed

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 Review
• Hydrologic models are used in many types of
USACE studies
• Flow-frequency relationships are a key part of
flood risk management studies
• Hydrologic modeling can be used to estimate
flow-frequency
• Punxsutawney watershed will be used for
workshops
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