AN INTRODUCTION: CHANGE AND

CONTINUITY
RICHARD W. MANSBACH AND KRISTEN L. RAFFERTY
 A. change and continuity
b. global politics through level of
READING analysis
NOTES c. theory

d. the great debates

 Change  ”the transformation of key structures and processes
that has a major impact on the nature of global politics” ex;
traditional security  non traditional security after the cold war

CHANGE Continuity  refers to the gradual evolution of structures and

processes such that the present retain key features of the past ex;
AND terrorism

CONTINUIT George modelski and William R. Thompson  Long cycle

Y history theory

Thucydides  The history of the Peloponnesian war

 George modelski and William R.
Thompson
LONG • History indicates that there are repeated cycles of
large-scale war and global leadership that last
CYCLE about 100 years
• Each cycle consists of several stages; beginning
HISTORY with a global war that gives rise to a new dominant
world leader or hegemon  thereafter the
THEORY hegemon’s authority is undermined and
challengers to the hegemon appear 
overextension and the high costs of hegemonic
leadership cause the hegemon’s decline  a new
war ensues from which a new hegemon emerges
 THUCYDIDES

• HIS CLAIM THAT THE RELATIVE POWER OF THE

CITY-STATES PROVIDED AN IMPORTANT
EXPLANATION OF WHY WAR ERUPTED TELLS US
THAT WE SHOULD PAY CAREFUL ATTENTION TO
RAPID CHANGES IN POWER, FOR EXAMPLE,
CHINA’S RAPID INCREASE IN MILITARY AND
ECONOMIC CAPABILITIES.
GLOBAL
POLITICS
THROUGH
LEVEL OF THE THE STATE THE
ANALYSIS INDIVIDUA GLOBAL
L SYSTEM
 THE INDIVIDUAL
• CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIVIDUALS, SUCH AS PERSONALITY TRAITS, WAYS OF
REACHING DECISIONS, AND BELIEF
• EX; WHETHER LEADERS MAKE RATIONAL DECISIONS, HOW THEIR PERSONAL
FOIBLES AFFECT POLICY, WHETHER THEY ALLOW THEIR BIASES TO AFFECT
THEIR DECISIONS AND ATTITUDES, AND WHETHER HUMAN BEINGS IN GENERAL
ARE PROGRAMMED TO FIGHT ONE ANOTHER
• KEYNOTE: RATIONALITY
• AT BEST  DECISION MAKERS CHOOSE THE BEST OF ALL AVAILABLE OR KNOWN
• AT WORST  DECISION MAKERS ARE DRIVEN BY NEUROSES, COMPULSIONS,
PASSIONS, AND PERSONAL WHIMS THAT SEEMS FAR FROM RATIONALITY AND
EVEN REALITY
 There is a need to form governing coalitions,
often including individuals with divergent
views
Disagreement may be so deep as to prevent a
ROBERT decision being made
JERVIS’S Inconsistencies grow as different factions
FIVE come to power over time

REASONS Majorities shift among competitors for power

with different preferences
Divergent and inconsistent bureaucratic
interests and perspectives influence decisions
 focus on governments, decision-making groups, or agencies
that determine the foreign policies of states and other actors,
Focus on and on the societies on whose behalf those groups or agencies
work.

THE STATE
Level of political systems, ideology, wealth and military
Level power, territory and populations, social identities such as
religion and ethnicity, and government organization

Keynote state and non state actors

 focus on structure and distributions of power,
wealth, nationality, and other key features of the
world as a whole.

THE In other words, it focuses on the global system,

GLOBAL that is, the interactions of all actors on the global
stage. The global level is the ultimate “whole” of

SYSTEM which actors and individuals are “parts

Keynotes: patterns of events and behavior across

the entire world
 • TOOLS OF ANALYSIS
• TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM OF HOW TO EXPLAIN AND
UNDERSTAND GLOBAL POLITICS
• THEORY SIMPLIFIES THE MESSY COMPLEXITY OF REALITY
BY POINTING TO ONLY THOSE FACTORS THAT THEORISTS
BELIEVE ARE IMPORTANT
• THEORY CONSISTS OF ABSTRACT, SIMPLIFIED, AND
GENERAL PROPOSITIONS THAT ANSWER WHY AND HOW
QUESTIONS
• MOST THEORY USED TO EXPLAIN AND/OR PREDICT
ACTORS’ BEHAVIOR IN GLOBAL POLITICS

THE • THEORY IS BUILT ON ASSUMPTIONS THAT LEAD THEORISTS

TO POINT TO PARTICULAR FEATURES OF GLOBAL POLITICS
THEORY
 • DEALS WITH WHAT IS
• BASED ON FACTS THAT CAN BE OBSERVED EITHER
DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY THROUGH HISTORY
BOOKS, MEMOIRS, AND DOCUMENTS
• TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW ACTORS
BEHAVE AND WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES OF THEIR
ACTIONS ARE
• MAKE PROPOSITION

EMPIRICA • EX: REALISM, LIBERALISM, MARXISM

L THEORY
 • EXPLAIN WHAT IS RIGHT AND WRONG OR MORAL
AND IMMORAL
• TENDS TO TAKE THE FORM OF A CLAIM, RATHER
THAN A PROPOSITION
• IT CANNOT BE TESTED BECAUSE IT IS BASED ON
BELIEFS, LOGIC, AND VALUES

NORMATI • EX: FEMINISM, CRITICAL THEORY,

COSMOPOLITANISM
VE
THEORY
 • PREDICTION, EXPLANATION, AND PRESCRIPTION
• PREDICTIVE THEORY IS EMPIRICAL, FORECASTING WHAT
WILL HAPPEN UNDER A SPECIFIC SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES.
• EXPLANATORY THEORY IDENTIFIES CAUSES OF EVENTS
AND ANSWERS THE DIFFICULT “WHY” QUESTIONS. IT, TOO,
IS ALWAYS EMPIRICAL: IT INVOLVES LEAPS OF
IMAGINATION, OFTEN TRIGGERED BY OBSERVATIONS OF
REALITY.

THE • PRESCRIPTIVE THEORY RECOMMENDS THE ADOPTION OF

PARTICULAR POLICIES TO REALIZE OBJECTIVES (COMBINE
PURPOSES BOTH EMPIRICAL AND NORMATIVE ELEMENTS)

OF • EMPIRICAL THEORY  TEND TO USED FOR THOSE THREE

PURPOSES, WHILE NORMATIVE THEORY  ONLY FOR

THEORY PRESCRIPTION
 1. realism and liberalism

THE
GREAT 2. traditionalism versus science

DEBATE
3. constructivism, post positivism,
Marxism, and feminism